Upstate New York House Race Is Too Close to Call

[stevedeshazer]

Source: New York Times

A mere 65 votes separated the two candidates late Tuesday in a Congressional contest in upstate New York that received national attention and was widely seen as a referendum on the Obama administration’s economic recovery efforts.

With all precincts reporting, the Democrat, Scott Murphy, a 39-year-old venture capitalist, led 77,344 to 77,279 over his Republican rival, Assemblyman James N. Tedisco, 58, for the seat vacated by Senator Kirsten E. Gillibrand, a Democrat. The turnout was surprisingly strong for a special election.

But 10,055 absentee ballots were issued — and 5,907 received so far, state election officials said — meaning the election cannot be decided until the paper ballots are counted. Moreover, it is likely that the count may not begin until at least April 6, said Bob Brehm, a spokesman for the State Board of Elections.

Republicans held out hope of recapturing the seat in the 20th Congressional District, which is heavily Republican and stretches from the Catskills through the Albany suburbs to the Adirondacks. Democrats, meanwhile, waited to see whether their standard-bearer, a first-time political candidate who campaigned on his support for the federal stimulus package, could pull off an upset.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/nyregion/01election.html

[Doctor Cynic]

1. The fact that it's razon thin is not good for Republicans.

[FrenchieCat]

3. Especially considering that they pulled out all of the stops,

and had 70,000 more GOP voters than did the Democrats.

Steele evidently didn't bring enough bling-bling!

[NBachers]

4. You mean he's not da man after all?

[Lasher]

2. If Tedisco wins, I say he doesn't get seated until after Franken does.

Seems fair. We have the votes in the House to do it.

[burning rain]

5. Good idea.

Plus, House Republicans don't have as many procedural tricks to play if they don't get their way, as senators do.

[burning rain]

6. This will be ideal if Murphy ends up the winner!

Already conservatives are in states of despair or bitterness or rage because they believe nefarious ACORN has stolen another election! If Murphy's numbers hold up they will grow ulcers, and the narrower his victory, the greater will be their frustration!

Only thing I don't quite get is why Patterson pulled a relatively conservative Dem out of a tough district for the party to appoint her senator, while more liberal Democrats can certainly win -- and are usually nominated -- at the statewide level in NY and leaving her congressional district ripe for a GOP pickup. Seems like a "bad twofer."

[RBInMaine]

7. I hope Murphy can pull it out, but it all depends on where those absentees came from. If the R wins

the national R's will try to make hay of this as a "referendum" on Obama and all that malarky. Here's the reality: this is one of THE reddest districts in the northeast. Gillibrand is a mostly conservative Dem with charisma who was able to win in that district, much as guys like Evan Bayh can win in red states like Indiana. This was a special election, and though turnout was higher than expected, it was nowhere near as high you'd get in a presidential November cycle. Lower turnout elections ALWAYS favor the majority party in a district. The GOP candidate is a well known state politician who actually embraced Obama in many ways in order to keep moderate R's and get some I's (who generally lean toward R candidates in red areas). (I know because my town is like this). Murphy was a complete unknown newcomer. The national R's dumped pots of money into this race and pulled out all stops. So even if Murphy loses, if it's close in the end this still doesn't bode well for the GOP and actually is more indicative of their struggle to keep control of their own turf. AND, it means we need to continue to compete in these red districts and find ways to flip them.

[burning rain]

12. You're right.

By all rights, a party should win a seat in a district where they hold a 70,000 voter registration edge, especially when a member of the other party holds the presidency. If the Republicans take the seat, they're just winning an easy contest; if they lose, it shows their shit is really weak (well, even more so than we already knew). Murphy ran a good race, though, so I hope he pulls it off.

Plus, even if the GOP takes the seat, that will give them just four of twenty-nine NY House seats, and that is truly pathetic.

[Mr. Sparkle]

8. Why are they not been counted until April 6? Dose that not give republicans time to tamper with them

All absentee ballots should be counted before the day of the election, otherwise it lends itself open to abuse!

[Muttocracy]

15. Military/overseas ballots get a little longer to arrive I think. nt

[lonestarnot]

9. Tee hee!

:D

[high density]

10. The media seems thoroughly uninterested in this race.

If it were a blowout for the Repukes this would be a top story and they'd be shoving it in Obama's face.

[Rhiannon12866]

17. "Hardball" has been covering this race and Rachel reported on it yesterday...

Tweety said that it will become a big story if the Republicans don't win... From your lips to God's ears, Chris... I worked on the campaign and I thought we would have a winner on Tuesday. :banghead:

[ElsewheresDaughter]

11. anyway you dice it Murphy won

[KamaAina]

13. Mr. Coleman, I have a James Tedisco on Line One...

:eyes:

[Rhiannon12866]

14. It's very frustrating for those of us here in the 20th...

I volunteered for the campaign, have been at Murphy HQ pretty much everyday for the past two weeks straight. I called countless voters in counties I've never even been to, put together packets for the few hundred of us going door to door, and then hit the pavement, myself, knocked on doors for the days leading up to election day, getting out the vote. I've been called names ("tree-killer" "Socialist" WTF?!), and don't get me started on the one-issue voters: guns and abortion. *sigh* I've listened to Bush* jokes, answered countless questions, addressed even more complaints, drove senior citizens to the polls, was almost run down by a Tedisco supporter, went without sleep and food, put a lot of miles on my car and left my puppy home alone. And there were many, many, many others, just like me. :-(

But what we volunteers did was nothing compared to Scott Murphy's staff. These guys toiled around the clock, organizing, planning, recruiting, analyzing, and dozens of duties that I don't even know. There was one guy who I swear never slept, had three printers going 24/7, but everything ended up in order and he never lost his sense of humor... :D

As for Scott Murphy, he seemed to be in two places at once, worked as hard as anybody, but he remained calm, soft-spoken and always had a smile and a thank you for everybody. :patriot:

So where's the payoff? It should have been over by now. We expected to be euphoric, or at worst, devastated. Instead, we're just hanging here, waiting. We knew that the absentee ballots had to be postmarked by the 30th. And we have the reliable old lever machines, so nobody's looking for malfunctions or errors. But the vote is so close, we can't begin to celebrate until the last vote from Fiji is counted. On top of that, Tedisco filed a challenge before the polls had even closed. And, as my friend pointed out, the man doesn't live in the district, so couldn't even vote for himself... And I had felt so sorry for the voters of Minnesota... :banghead:

Thanks for the :rant:... :hi:

[Muttocracy]

16. ...

:hug:

[Rhiannon12866]

18. Thanks...

:hi::hug: