Italian earthquake: expert's warnings were dismissed as scaremongering

[bigworld]

Source: Telegraph.co.uk

An Italian scientist, Giampaolo Giuliani, predicted the earthquake which has killed at least 90 people in the Abruzzo region but he was reported to the police for scaremongering, it has emerged.

Mr Giuliani told locals to evacuate their houses and posted a video on YouTube in which he said a build-up of radon gas around the seismically active area suggested a major earthquake was imminent.

Several tremors had been felt in the medieval city of L'Aquila, around 60 miles east of Rome, from mid-January onwards, and vans with loudspeakers had driven around the city spreading the warning.

But instead of heeding Mr Guiliani's warnings, the local authorities reported him to police for "spreading alarm" and he was told to remove his findings from the internet.

The predicted earthquake hit L'Aquila at 3.32am local time today, killing at least 90 people and leaving up to 50,000 homeless

Read more: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/5114139/Italian-earthquake-experts-warnings-were-dismissed-as-scaremongering.html

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I think this is the youtube warning in question (In Italian): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLRuQlQktFk

[Hugabear]

Sounds like your standard disaster movie plot, only real life this time

Scientist devises a controversial theory that predicts disaster, local authorities tell him to STFU, disaster happens, scientist proved right.

[cali]

1. whoa. to say the local authorities are fools, is understating it.

[Scairp]

20. You think that's bad?

Try telling them that Vesuvius is going to blow it's top again at some point in the not so distant future. The "authorities" completely flip out over this kind of talk. And one day, probably in my lifetime, it will, and Naples will be the modern day Pompeii. It's very puzzling why they have this attitude as this country has more than one active volcano and has regular earthquakes. To say that they are unprepared is truly understating their approach to warnings that something very bad is going to happen sooner rather than later.

[islandmkl]

2. bobby jindal has relatives in italy??

[CatWoman]

3. Friday night I watched this documentary "The Last Days of Pompeii"

in which Mt Vesuvius erupted and buried the city and it's residents.

That volcano comes alive and erupts every 2000 years.

It's past due............

[RaleighNCDUer]

5. Maybe, maybe not. There was a good sized eruption in 1945

which might have been sufficient to vent the pressure build up. But it is true, it wasn't anything on the scale of the @2000BCE or the 79CE eruptions.

[xchrom]

4. Henrick Ibsen where are you? -- we now need and updated 'Enemy of the people'. nt

[evilkumquat]

6. Did Mr. Giuliani Send His Only Son to be Raised by a Kansas Farm Couple?

I can't be the only one to see this connection...

[Ian David]

7. La mia capra dell'animale domestico. n/t

[bdamomma]

8. check these reports from the BBC.

my heart goes out to these people in Italy.

[smoogatz]

9. I'm thinking Al Gore knows a little about what it's like

to be Mr. Giuliani.

[smoogatz]

10. dupe

woops.

[paparush]

11. Italy Muzzled Scientist who Foresaw Quake

Source: Reuters

ROME, April 6 (Reuters) - An Italian scientist predicted a major earthquake around L'Aquila weeks before disaster struck the city on Monday, killing dozens of people, but was reported to authorities for spreading panic among the population.

The first tremors in the region were felt in mid-January and continued at regular intervals, creating mounting alarm in the medieval city, about 100 km (60 miles) east of Rome.

Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani predicted a large quake was on the way, prompting the mayor's anger.



Read more: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L6566682.htm

[On the Road]

12. That is a Tragedy

It's rare that warnings of doom are fulfilled so quickly and clearly.

And once again, life imitates Hollywood:

[medeak]

13. just returned from Rome

was sad to leave but now relieved!

[Pepe Ronny]

14. This sounds like a violation of human rights

The scientist had the right of set off the alarms, because he had scientific explanations do to so, as reported in the article. Instead, he was jailed. He should sue and get a compensation and an apology.

[sasquatch]

15. Well that's Italian justice

:eyes:

[Bigmack]

16. Gee, I thought it was only here in the US

that "anti-science" was the ruling ethos.... Alas it seems that whenever science threatens the status quo it's out with reason and in with "things will only be what WE want them to be." Ms Bigmack

[Scairp]

21. The citizenry seems to have a false sense of security

Who knows if it's because the authorities tell them nothing bad is going to happen, or if it's self-imposed ignorance or just complete denial. When they interview the people of Naples about Vesuvius, they seem to be very detached from reality. And I love how these "authorities" are still today saying that this scientist didn't predict this earthquake because no one can predict earthquakes. Except that he did. I wish I knew the Italian word for wanker.

[Warpy]

17. The problem with predicting earthquakes

is that, while you can nail them down to a few months in some parts of the world, you can't nail them down to a few days. People simply can't afford to leave their homes for a long period of time, waiting for the big one.

Yes, his prediction was accurate. No, it wasn't nearly accurate enough.

Undoubtedly, seismologists worldwide are working on it, though.

[Igel]

18. We also tend to think of false negatives as free.

We only count when predictions are valid.

When you actually do evacuations, you have to look at the overall costs of the "program," not just the evacuations that pay off. The costs can be extensive, and not just monetary.

It's the same calculated gamble that Nagin took in not ordering an evacuation of NOLA: Evacuations are expensive, politically damaging if unnecessary, and every unnecessary evacuation makes the next less likely. (Of course, if they never order them then that last bit is moot.)

I look forward to the day when they have fairly reliable warnings posted 48 hours in advance, even in just some areas.

[KamaAina]

22. Nagin did order an evacuation of NOLA

it was, however, tied up for a critical day or so because of legal issues surrounding hotel guests and hospital patients.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katrina#Greater_New_Orleans_area

At a news conference at 10 a.m. on August 28, shortly after Katrina was upgraded to a Category 5 storm, New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin ordered the first-ever mandatory evacuation of the city, calling Katrina "a storm that most of us have long feared."

[joshcryer]

19. Holy shit. It's just like in those made for TV movies where someone warns and is ignored.

How hilarious and horrible! I would think that most *rational* people would at least give him a *small* benefit of the doubt and see if he was on to something!

[madohioan]

23. This reminds me of the global warming deniers

Always ready to lynch whoever dares put science above religion and myth.