Obama says economy showing 'glimmers of hope'

[sabra]

Source: AP

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama said Friday the economy is showing "glimmers of hope" despite continuing stresses and signaled more steps to brighten the business climate.

Obama commented to reporters after meeting at the White House with members of his economic team, including Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, economic adviser Larry Summers and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

"What we're starting to see is glimmers of hope across the economy," the president said, although he also noted that the economy is "still under severe stress."

...

But Obama also pointed to the high rate of joblessness — which climbed to a 25-year high of 8.5 percent in March — and acknowledged that "we've still got a lot of work to do."

"We're starting to see progress," he declared, "and if we stick with it, if we don't flinch in the face of some difficulties, then I feel absolutely convinced that we are going to get this economy back on track."

Read more: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hEx3tiPJhZQLVqjNmHR_oP6FZMuwD97FOJE84

[leftchick]

1. glimmers for the wall street boys

it looks like shit where I live. Talk about lipstick on a pig.

[w4rma]

2. I'm sorry, but nothing is going to happen until these zombie banks are broken up. (nt)

[Donnachaidh]

3. Obama needs to get out and talk to the UNEMPLOYED

THEY don't see *glimmers* of anything. He needs to do something NOW for the millions unemployed. STOP backing up bank's bad debts. Because THAT is NOT going to get the cash into the hands of the unemployed, or anyone else who truly needs it.

[OhioChick]

4. Agreed.

No glimmer going on here in Ohio. Just getting darker as the days pass.

[onehandle]

13. Read it. He acknowledged that employment needs "a lot of work."

Jobs will not return until the economy turns around.

That's what the "glimmer" is about. The economy.

[dipsydoodle]

5. I'd say that present the best trace of hope

would be to print this page, place a a piece of grease proof paper over the word hope and then go round the each of the letters with a fucking pencil.

[bluestateguy]

6. NO matter what he says, he will be criticized

If he is dour on the economy, they whine that he is talking down the economy.

If he shows even measured optimism, they accuse him of being a pollyanna or being "out of touch".

[Richd506]

17. I know what you mean

It's a lose lose situation either way. All he can do is make the decisions that will do the least damage.

[deacon]

22. People are taking out there frustration with bush out on Obama too, using the same scrutiny where

it's not really warranted. He deserves a chance. Some decisions are great, some highly questionable- but they are crisis time decisions so patience is necessary.

[Myrina]

7. ... I would like a glimmer, rather than more 'being trickled down upon' ...

Personally. :(

[On the Road]

8. The Panic of September Has Passed

Things have stabilized, at least on the East Coast. Retail and real estate are picking up a little. The market seems to have changed its opinon.

Everyone keeps saying that the recovery will be sluggish, but most recoveries are robust. Employment always lags. Just needs a couple quarters of growth.

[Hawkowl]

9. You are dreaming

The vast majority of ARM's and sub-prime mortgages are scheduled to reset this year. Retail vacancies are at an all time high and climbing. NEW unemployment claims fell slightly but total unemployment claims keeps climbing. World trade is still falling. The US trade deficit just hit a 19 yr low and it will continue to drop. State and local tax revenues are plummeting so the social safety net is virtually gone and now the meat and potatoes of local government, i.e; schools, police, fire are on the chopping block.

There is no glimmer of hope yet, because the whole TARP/Bank bailout/Giethner plan is just another sick joke of supply side economics in another guise. Preventing the rich from bankrupting themselves while bankrupting the country will only fuel inflation. (Why are crude prices up so high if we have record breaking inventories and record declines in consumption? Answer: inflation. Nascent but glimmering).

The panic that happens THIS September (or August) will make last year seem like a good old fashioned picnic.

[On the Road]

16. Your Arguments are All Based on Lagging Indicators

and presumptions about the future. It is driven by emotion and assuming current trends continue.

I'm 55 and have gone through multiple recessions. Just before a recovery there is a sense on the street that things have bottomed. That is what happened in 1982 and it's what's happening now.

Trends change. They change exactly at the point where vacancies are high, taxes are down, people are continuing to be laid off. And despite all the predictions about a sluggish recovery, most recoveries are pretty robust.

[Hawkowl]

24. Oh I understand the lag

The biggest lag is a fiscal stimulus package. Historically it takes 12 - 18 months to have any effect at all. I don't get a feeling from the street that things have bottomed. I get the feeling that hedge funds and some institutions are encouraging some retail buying so they can cash out of this bear market rally and make some coin with some short selling to test the prior low. In fact, I see the markets making NEW lows either in May or late August early September. The scenario I see most likely is a slightly less version of 1932. 2008 was our 1929 and I see 2009 as our 1932.

At the very least, we have to retest the market lows of March. Otherwise, we have a V shaped recession, which virtually all economists have claimed is highly improbable. Most are calling for at least a U shaped recovery, and the potential for a long L shaped one being likely. The market is a leading indicator, so once the stock markets turn the corner, the real economy should be only about 9 months behind, and a pickup in employment several months beyond that.

I remember 1982, and I believe this recession to be much worse nationally, (although locally 1982 in NW Indiana was horrific with a 30% unemployment rate). There simply is no engine to power us out of this recession. Consumers can't or won't borrow us out. The local governments are CUTTING spending. Trade is next to useless because all we export anymore is debt, jetliners, and commodities (like S.America). The federal government is simply transferring wealth from the peons to the rich--a kind of anti-stimulus. And business investment is being choked to death by usurious or insolvent banks/venture capitalists/brokerage houses (look at what the banks are trying to do to the auto companies).

So, in my opinion, we will have to wait for the consumers to pay down their debts AND feel secure in their jobs, and health care, before they take on any serious spending. Businesses are going to have to wait for the banks to re-regulated. That's why I don't see this recession ending anytime before late 2010 (although it could be much longer, or even a little quicker depending if the administration makes the right moves).

That being said, I'd rather you were right!

[On the Road]

31. Thank You for That Analysis

It is infinitely more detailed than most of the responses here, and I can't really disagree with any of your points, except that there are always sources of growth that are not taken into acconut.

What I was communicating was my personal sense of what's on the street in Maryland right now. Two months ago there was panic and a feeling of bottomlessness. Aisles were empty. People were staying home and hoarding money. There were fire sales on homes, services, and retail products. Now the desperation is gone and there is a feeling that things have stabilized.

This is based on my having five small rental properties in Baltimore and another two purchsed over over the winter to renovate and sell. They involved dealings with contractors, real estate agents, retail and wholesale stores, and renters. I can't prove any of it, but then again nobody can.

That's all I was trying to say. Recessions do have bottoms, and when they arrive they're generally unnoticed or are greeted with skepticism. A former boss of mine, an executive recruiter, called the bottom of the recession in 1982 by conversations with executives. I am trying to do the same thing now.

[whoneedstickets]

11. I agree, I'm in the mid-west and the fear seems to be subsiding..

...I've noticed a bit more activity in the down-town areas, the mall, some construction. I think we might have bounced off the bottom, but it will take some time to get back to where we were and longer to get where we ought to be.

[Donnachaidh]

12. and what east coast is THAT?

Stabilized my shiny metal ass.

What planet are you posting from? We're seeing more and more retail facilities shutting their doors - more and more people getting thrown out of work.

Turn off Fox News and read some REAL news for once. :eyes:

[On the Road]

15. I Don't Watch Fox News

and haven't watched any financials shows in months. I'm in Home Depot every day and talk to workers and real estate agents. It is as close to the ground as you can get.

Of course people are still being laid off and businesses are closing their doors. That continues to happen even after a recovery starts. But unless there's another big bank failure (JP Morgan is the one I worry about), it appears we have reached bottom.

[roamer65]

21. GDP contraction does not always follow a continuous, downward path.

In 1930, there was a small upward motion in GDP after the panic in 1929...then it fell drastically after that time.

The 1980-1982 double dip recession followed a similar path.

By the end of this year, we should know what path we are exactly following. I have told many people to refrain from large purchases until the end of the year.

My opinion is that we are experiencing the "double dip false stabilization" before the next large step downward in GDP and I am structuring my finances accordingly.

[On the Road]

32. It Could Easily Be

This is just a sense from a lot of everyday business contacts. I forgot there was a double dip in the early 80s -- will have to read up on that. It's perfectly sensible to predict a W-shaped recession or weak recesison, but market sentiment and the general consensus are usually a good contrary indicator.

I haven't changed my investments, although just before the rally I recommended to another DUer investing in a bunch of stocks that have skyrocketed. Should have taken my own advice.

This is actually a pretty good time for large purchases, especially houses, in particular foreclosures. Anyone who has been waiting to buy, the last few months have been the time.

[radfringe]

10. although Hypocrisy is an alien concept to NOPers

how long before they start trying to claim credit for economic improvements by pointing out TARP started under bush admin?

[deacon]

23. Yep. And, lol at "NOpers" . Good one! :) n/t

[Deja Q]

14. Stocks does not equate as jobs

I won't flinch either.

But unless something promising develops, I am wholly changing fields. 50,000 articles on MSNBC can't be wrong.

Like this one:
http://encarta.degreesandtraining.com/articles.jsp?article=featured_from_downturn_to_upswing>1=27001

[northernlights]

18. per Stephanopoulos, no bottom in unemployment before next year

At 500,000/month, that'll be 6 million more new claims by this time next year. At 600,000/month, that'll be 7.2 million more. At 700,000/month that'll be 8.4 million more.

And that's assuming it doesn't continue to accelerate, but just holds a steady pace.

Where will those numbers put the percentages? And how many individual people do the real percentages (15%+ and growing) add up to, anyway?

[Terry in Austin]

19. Glimmers? Hope?

Wow -- that bad, huh?

:shrug:

[roamer65]

20. He's a good guy, but it's utter bullshit.

GDP contraction is intensifying as the unemployment rate skyrockets.

The zombie banks are intensifying the debt deflation trap by their credit constrictive, capital hoarding actions.

We need to nationalize the banks to get credit flowing effectively again. There is no alternative at this point.

[riverdale]

25. I call bullshit

MI continues to be a complete disaster

[SlowDownFast]

26. Blah, blah, blah.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled Looting.

[Omaha Steve]

27. Obama turns more upbeat on economy

Source: Omaha World Herald-AP

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Barack Obama declared Friday that the slumping economy has begun to show "glimmers of hope," but cautioned that it remains severely stressed and will require lots more work to turn it around.

Once criticized for talking too pessimistically about the economy, Obama is highlighting the positive.

"We're starting to see glimmers of hope across the economy," the president said after a White House meeting with his economic team, including Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and top economic adviser Larry Summers. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke also participated in the session.


"We're starting to see progress," President Barack Obama said Friday. With him is Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.


Obama echoed Summers' prediction a day earlier that the "sense of a ball falling off a table" would end in a few months.


Read more: http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=1208&u_sid=10607675

[Zynx]

28. It's true that the data are not as uniformly unprecedentedly bad as they were.

The monthly ISM data is a good example. In December only 5% said they saw higher new orders versus 60% saying they saw lower orders. Now that gap is more like 20 points instead of 55. However, that level still corresponds to a deep recession. We simply aren't falling off a cliff quite the same way as we were in the October-January period.

[Abq_Sarah]

29. There is going to be an increase

Due to businesses purchasing seasonal stock. Either they buy or they will go out of business.

[Zynx]

30. Those figures tend to be seasonally adjusted.

Seasonal adjustments aren't perfect, but they do capture a lot.