STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday April 28

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday April 28, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 2

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 27, 2009

Dow... 8,025.00 -51.29 (-0.64%)
Nasdaq... 1,679.41 -14.88 (-0.88%)
S&P 500... 857.51 -8.72 (-1.01%)
Gold future... 908.20 -5.90 (-0.65%)
30-Year Bond 3.84% -0.04 (-0.98%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.92% -0.08 (-2.50%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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Handy Links

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Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Don't Let the Flu Get You Down
by RYAN J. PUPLAVA

The onset of a new strain of swine influenza A/H1N1 with 20 confirmed cases in the U.S. over the weekend shocked the financial markets Monday. The World Health Organization (WHO) grew this figure to 40 confirmed cases now in the U.S. The number of confirmed cases in Mexico is 26 as of today.

The hardest hit sector was the transports with the Dow Jones Transportation Index down 4.69% to 2990.74. The hardest hit industries were airlines and hotels with the Dow Jones Airline index down 12.03% and the Dow Jones Hotel index down 7.50%. Lean hog futures were down 4.09%. The S&P 500 index finished the day down 1.01% to 857.51.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Ghost Dog]

27. Hog Futures. Please allow me to interject: "Pigs for the Ancestors",

one of the sources which helped lead me to an honours degree in Environmental Sciences, Plymouth, 1976.

Pigs for the Ancestors

Ritual in the Ecology of a New Guinea People

Roy A. Rappaport

This influential work is the most important and widely cited book ever published in ecological anthropology. It is a classic case study of human ecology in a tribal society, the role of culture (especially ritual) in local and regional resource management, negative feedback, and the application of systems theory to an anthropological population. It is considered a major work of theory, yet it is also empirically grounded in Rappaport’s meticulous collection of quantitative and qualitative data on such “material” matters as diet and energy expenditure, as well as such mental-cognitive-ideational domains as myth and folk taxonomies. Rappaport’s tour de force is a recognized classic because it contributes in so many ways to anthropological theory, ethnographic methodology, ecological anthropology, and the anthropology of religion. This enlarged edition offers a carefully reasoned, empirically focused reassessment of Rappaport’s original study in the context of ongoing theoretical and methodological problems. - http://www.waveland.com/Titles/Rappaport.htm
____

Basic Premises

Ecological anthropology focuses upon the complex relations between people and their environment. Human populations have ongoing contact with and impact upon the land, climate, plant, and animal species in their vicinities, and these elements of their environment have reciprocal impacts on humans (Salzman and Attwood 1996:169). Ecological anthropology investigates the ways that a population shapes its environment and the subsequent manners in which these relations form the population’s social, economic, and political life (Salzman and Attwood 1996:169). In a general sense, ecological anthropology attempts to provide a materialist explanation of human society and culture as products of adaptation to given environmental conditions (Seymour-Smith 1986:62). - http://www.as.ua.edu/ant/Faculty/murphy/ecologic.htm
____

Related:... http://books.google.es/books?id=gDSPJN2HXOoC&pg=PA291&lpg=PA291&dq=rappaport+pigs+ancestors&source=bl&ots=7zDGG7cPf4&sig=RsAMaHUJR0lUsnU6gDTJ4wdqoig&hl=en&ei=iuz2SfSdMsrLjAeKmuXRDA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=5#PPP1,M1


With respect, as regards meat-production and -eating, I much prefer local lamb, myself. My better half is an egg and cheese-eating vegetarian.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

10:00 Consumer Confidence Apr
Briefing.com 29.5
Consensus 29.9
Prior 26.0

10:00 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Feb
Briefing.com NA
Consensus -18.7%
Prior -18.97%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[54anickel]

38. Consumer Confidence in U.S. Jumps More Than Forecast (Biggest gain in 3 years!!)

:smoke:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axwRA6XEeCFs&refer=home

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence jumped more than forecast in April as stocks rallied, mortgage rates dropped and Americans thought more jobs will become available, adding to signs the recession may be easing.

The Conference Board’s sentiment index climbed to 39.2, the highest level since November, from 26.9 in March, the New York- based research group said today. The gain was the biggest since November 2005.

The improvement raises the odds that recent gains in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, will be sustained. The report indicates efforts by Federal Reserve policy makers, meeting today and tomorrow, to lower borrowing costs and unclog lending may be starting to pay off.

“There’s definitely caution, but it pales in comparison to what we saw in the second half of 2008,” Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal in New York, said before the report. “By the second half, we may see a decided increase in consumer spending.”

more...

[Dr.Phool]

40. Amazing what a sustained propaganda campaign can accomplish, isn't it?

The numbers are still horrible, but just not as bad as we expected. Unemployment is still at record numbers. Thousands more job cuts are announced every day. But, hey! What the fuck, it could have been worse.

And it probably is. Just look on the bright side. You free pony is just past the curve in the tunnel.

[UpInArms]

42. line item info:

05. U.S. April consumer confidence index 39.2 vs. 26.9
10:00 AM ET, Apr 28, 2009

06. U.S. April expectations index 49.5 vs. 30.2
10:00 AM ET, Apr 28, 2009

07. U.S. April present situation index 23.7 vs. 21.9
10:00 AM ET, Apr 28, 2009

08. 4th largest increase in consumer confidence index
10:00 AM ET, Apr 28, 2009

09. Consumers less gloomy about economy, survey says
10:00 AM ET, Apr 28, 2009

(damn! I want some of what they're smokin'!)

[Ghost Dog]

44. WHITE DIESEL Feminised, for example?

http://www.sensiseeds.com/whitedieselfeminised/1p1520012.html :smoke:

Edit: I jest. They're obviously smokin' crack, or something even worse, probaly cooked up in the cia's labs.

[UpInArms]

43. Case-Shiller index down 2.2% in February, 18.6% in past year

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/pace-home-price-declines-eases-february/story.aspx?guid=%7B79CAEE4D-FB6A-414F-9455-AD8ACE6A6262%7D&dist=google

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Home prices fell in February for the 31st month in a row, but at a slower pace than in January, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's.

Home prices in 20 major cities fell 2.2% in February after a record 2.8% decline in January, S&P reported.

Prices in 20 cities are down 18.6% in the past year, compared with a 19% drop in the 12 months ending in January. It was the first time in 16 months that the year-over-year decline in prices did not set a record.

"While the declines in residential real estate continued into February, we witnessed some deceleration in the rate of decline in some of the markets," said David Blitzer, head of the S&P index committee.

Prices are "no longer falling off a cliff," wrote Patrick Newport, an economist for IHS Global Insight. "Instead, they are rolling down a steep hill."
The continued declines in the Case-Shiller index are at odds with a similar price index published by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which has increased the past two months. "The FHFA gauge is not picking up the full extent of price declines" because it misses sales of many distressed properties, wrote Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Securities. The FHFA index uses only conforming loans written or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Despite the deceleration in the Case-Shiller index in February, the decline in housing prices is tracking the "more adverse" scenario in the federal government's stress tests on major banks, which assumes a 22% drop in home prices this year, according to Bill McBride, who writes the Calculated Risk blog.

...more...

[Danascot]

58. Related story from a few days ago

House Prices Finally Approaching Fair Value...

As goes housing, so goes the rest of the economy. So where do things stand? After two years of precipitous declines that have taken prices down almost 30% from the peak, house prices are finally approaching fair value (which is perhaps 10% below today's level).

That doesn't mean that house prices will only fall another 10%, however. On the contrary, given the tendency for prices to overshoot, it would be startling if house prices stopped at fair value. More likely, they'll drop at least 10% below fair value before they finally trough. Although the rate of decline is likely to ease over the coming months and years, therefore, prices will likely keep falling through at least 2011. And there's at least 20% downside left.

more:

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-housing-market-2009-4

[ozymandius]

3. Oil falls below $49 as swine flu fallout eyed

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $49 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as traders mulled how much a global outbreak of swine flu could undermine demand for crude.

Benchmark crude for June delivery was down $1.36 to $48.78 a barrel by late afternoon in Singapore, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract Monday fell $1.41 to settle at $50.14.

....

Traders will be watching the weekly petroleum inventory data from the Energy Information Agency on Wednesday. Analysts expect a build of 1.8 million barrels in crude stocks, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos. Crude stocks already are near 19-year highs.

....

Some analysts expect prices to fall over the next 12 months as an economic recovery fueled by massive government stimulus packages could fail to gain traction. Prices have risen from below $35 in February on optimism the worst of the downturn may be over.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for May delivery fell 2.32 cents to $1.38 a gallon and heating oil slid 2.29 cent to $1.30 a gallon. Natural gas for May delivery was steady at $3.25 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. BP profit falls 62 percent but beats forecasts

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil major BP Plc (BP.L) reported a 62 percent fall in first-quarter net profit on Tuesday due to a collapse in oil and gas prices, but heavy cost cutting helped it beat all analysts' forecasts.

Europe's second-largest oil company by market value said its replacement cost (RC) net profit fell to $2.39 billion from $6.59 billion last year.

BP said it was reacting to the weaker oil price environment by slashing costs. These fell by $1 billion in the first quarter compared to the same period last year.

....

However, BP's debt levels rose as it borrowed to fund its generous dividend. Gearing rose to 23 percent compared with 19 percent last year.

BP needs oil prices of $60/bbl to generate enough cash to fund investment and pay its dividend, analysts said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090428/bs_nm/us_bp_2

[Demeter]

50. I f You Have To Borrow To Pay Your Dividend--It's NOT a Dividend!

this company is on its way to the toilet.

[Dr.Phool]

56. Madoff running BP now?

[ozymandius]

5. IRS says set to pursue "other banks" on tax evasion

MIAMI (Reuters) – The U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) is preparing to pursue other foreign banks for allegedly facilitating tax evasion by wealthy Americans following its high-profile case against Switzerland's UBS AG (UBSN.VX) (UBS.N), an IRS official said on Monday.

UBS, Switzerland's largest bank, in February acknowledged that it helped U.S. clients conceal assets from the U.S. government. It agreed to pay a $780 million fine and identify some of its American clients.

But U.S. authorities are still going after the Swiss bank, seeking to access the data of another 52,000 Americans they say are hiding about $14.8 billion in Swiss bank accounts.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090427/bs_nm/us_tax_usa_irs

[Ghost Dog]

32. "Foreign Banks". No investigation of Goldman Sachs Bank AG in Geneva & Zurich, of course.

Goldman Sachs Bank AG is a premier private investment bank, well established in the Swiss financial community and a member of the Swiss Stock Exchange. The Zurich office also houses a branch of Goldman Sachs International, providing equity derivative and institutional sales. - http://www2.goldmansachs.com/worldwide/switzerland/index.html

Geneva
Goldman Sachs Bank AG
1 Rue des Moulins
PO Box 3666
1211 Geneva
Switzerland
Tel: [phone]

Zurich
Goldman Sachs Bank AG
Münsterhof 4
Postfach
CH-8022 Zurich
Switzerland
Tel: [phone]

[ozymandius]

6. U.S. urges BofA, Citi to increase capital: report

BANGALORE (Reuters) – U.S. regulators have told Bank of America Corp and Citigroup Inc they may need to raise more capital following stress testing of the two banks, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The shortfall amounts to billions of dollars at BofA, the paper said on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the bank, adding it is likely the Federal Reserve will have determined other banks might also need more capital.

....

The 19 banks tested, which include JPMorgan Chase & Co and Wells Fargo & Co , hold two thirds of the assets and more than half of the loans in the U.S. banking system.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090428/bs_nm/us_financial_citi_bofa

[ozymandius]

14. Stress tests reveal Citi and BofA need more capital, but you knew that already - by Edward Harrison

Posted at Naked Capitalism:

The leaks about who failed the stress tests are already starting. Who got a big fat 'F'? Apparently, Citi and BofA for starters. But is that any surprise?

Regulators have told Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. that the banks may need to raise more capital based on early results of the government's so-called stress tests of lenders, according to people familiar with the situation.

The capital shortfall amounts to billions of dollars at Bank of America, based in Charlotte, N.C., people familiar with the bank said.

Executives at both banks are objecting to the preliminary findings, which emerged from the government's scrutiny of 19 large financial institutions. The two banks are planning to respond with detailed rebuttals, these people said, with Bank of America's appeal expected by Tuesday.

The findings suggest that government officials are using the stress tests to send a tough message to struggling banks. Bank of America and Citigroup have been the highest-profile problem children in recent months, but it is unlikely that they are the only banks the Federal Reserve has determined might need more capital.

Just three months ago these two mega-banks were on the verge of collapse and needed yet more cash to sustain them. So, the 'stress tests' haven't provided any new information. But, ah, there's that last sentence: "it is unlikely that they are the only banks the Federal Reserve has determined might need more capital." Who else might need more dosh?

Industry analysts and investors predict that some regional banks, especially those with big portfolios of commercial real-estate loans, likely fared poorly on the stress tests. Analysts consider Regions Financial Corp., Fifth Third Bancorp and Wells Fargo & Co. to be among the leading contenders for more capital. Wells Fargo declined to comment. Representatives of Regions and Fifth Third didn't respond to requests for comment made late in the day.

Go read the whole thing.

[ozymandius]

7. Stocks, Commodities Fall on Flu; Banks Decline on Stress Tests

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks and commodities fell around the world on concern swine flu will damp the global economic recovery and U.S. regulators will make banks raise capital after failing so-called stress tests.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European shares dropped 2.1 percent, led by raw-material producers and banks. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 1.5 percent after the Wall Street Journal said the U.S. government’s examination of lenders shows Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. may need more capital. Hogs and pork-belly futures extended declines after falling by their limit in Chicago yesterday.

The World Health Organization raised its global pandemic alert to the highest since the system was adopted in 2005 and said swine flu was no longer containable as 152 people died in Mexico. Bank of America’s shortfall comes to billions of dollars, the Journal said. The Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender and New York-based Citigroup have received a combined $90 billion in U.S. bailout funds.

....

While almost 67 percent of the S&P 500 companies that reported first-quarter results have beaten estimates in the past two weeks, analysts predict profits will decline through September, dropping 34 percent in the first quarter and 33 percent in the second.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=amRGkg4TdhUU&refer=home

[Kolesar]

24. "damp the global economic recovery" = "extinguish the unfounded market rally"

Nobody is even out on the streets in Mexico City. What effect do we think *that* is going to have on earnings?

[ozymandius]

8. GM Bailout May Mean Government Becomes Its Biggest Shareholder

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., operating with $15.4 billion in U.S. aid, would be at least half owned by the U.S. government under a plan the automaker outlined yesterday to slash its debt and cut dealer ranks nearly in half.

The proposal, if accepted by the Obama administration, would give the Treasury at least half of the 60 billion shares in a reorganized GM, the automaker said yesterday. The U.S. would join European and Chinese in holding stakes in local automakers.

....

The U.S. may end up as the biggest shareholder in the nation’s largest automaker by converting $10 billion of its loans into equity. The U.S. gets preferential treatment over other GM creditors because its loans are secured by assets while the $27.5 billion in bond debt is unsecured.

....

GM said that existing equity holders, with 610.5 million shares outstanding, will own about 1 percent of the restructured company on a pro-forma basis, after about 60 billion more shares are issued. Bondholders would hold 10 percent of the new shares.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRgY68o56to8

[Kolesar]

18. I presume the UAW would get 44% of GM & assume the health care obligations

for retirees and perhaps current employees.

Would GM (AKA "American Motors") have lobbyists in Washington?

[ozymandius]

9. Daimler Posts 1Q Loss As Mkt Downturn Bites

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--Daimler AG (DAI) Tuesday posted a worse-than-expected net loss in the first quarter as global demand for trucks and luxury cars collapsed, confirming that full-year revenue and vehicle sales will come in significantly lower than in 2008.

....

Daimler posted a net loss of EUR1.29 billion in the first three months of the year compared to net profit of EUR1.33 billion in the same period a year ago.

Daimler's closely watched earnings before interest and tax, or EBIT, came in at a EUR1.43 billion loss in the first quarter, missing analysts' expectations of a EUR1.08 billion loss. It posted a profit of EUR1.98 billion last year.

....

A sharp deterioration in sales a mix shift toward smaller and less profitable vehicles along with wide-ranging destocking are eating into automakers' earnings, with luxury car makers particularly hard hit amid recession.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090428-705506.html

[ozymandius]

10. Deutsche Bank Posts $1.6 Billion Profit

PARIS — Deutsche Bank, the biggest German bank, said Tuesday that it returned to profit in the first quarter, as trading revenue recovered amid a thawing of credit markets.

The bank, based in Frankfurt, posted net income for the January-March period of €1.2 billion, or $1.6 billion, compared to a net loss of €141 million in the first quarter of 2008. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected net profit of less than €800 million. It wrote off bad investments of €1.5 billion.

It said revenue rose 56 percent to €7.2 billion, lifted by what the bank said were record revenues in interest rate and foreign exchange products and a strong performance in money market products. Revenue in its corporate banking and securities business more than quadrupled, to €4.2 billion from €880 million.

....

The bank’s write-offs in the latest period included €841 million on its exposure to monoline insurers and an impairment charge of €500 million on the Cosmopolitan Resort & Casino property in Las Vegas, on which it foreclosed in September. It also set aside €526 million for possible credit losses, up from €114 million in the first quarter of 2008, and warned of “rising delinquencies in Germany, a deteriorating credit environment in Spain, and the expansion of the consumer finance business in Poland.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/29/business/global/29deutsche.html?ref=business

[Hugin]

37. Is there no mention of the handout received from AIG?

None?

I thought not.

[Demeter]

51. Sure There Is! It's In the Headline!

Where do you think the "profit" came from?

[ozymandius]

11. Bank of China posts lower-than-expected Q1 profit

HONG KONG, April 28 (Reuters) - Bank of China (601988.SS) (3988.HK) reported a 14.4 percent drop in first-quarter profit on Tuesday, hit by lower fees and exposure to declining import and export markets.

The results show that earnings growth for China's major, state-run banks is slowing, though steady lending has allowed the group to remain in the black. Bank of China reported results a day after rival Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398.HK) posted a better-than-expected rise in profit of 6.2 percent. Bank of China reported first-quarter profit of 18.57 billion yuan ($2.72 billion), compared with earnings of 21.7 billion yuan in the year-earlier period.

The results disappointed as the government-run lender was expected to earn 19.6 billion yuan, according to analysts' estimates.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSHKG2164320090428

[ozymandius]

12. Our Next Troubled Bank: The Fed

From The Big Picture

“All of this garbage paper that’s going bad — the troubled residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS), the commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), the asset backed securities (ABS), the Fannie Mae bonds, the corporate loans, and so on — hasn’t just gone “Poof.”

Instead, more and more of it has been landing on the Fed’s doorstep — either through direct ownership or as collateral against Fed loans that keep getting rolled over.

The result? The Fed’s once pristine balance sheet is starting to look more and more like the balance sheet of a troubled financial institution.”

The quality of the balance sheet of the U.S. central bank is deteriorating. The Fed is now heavily burdened by the same kind of crappy paper that has been hammering private U.S. banks for several quarters.

source

---

Our Federal Reserve: cognitive capture at its finest

[Hissyspit]

13. Oh, great.

Just what we need. More bad news.

[SpiralHawk]

15. Oh ungreat

trouble ahead. make that more trouble ahead.

[Hissyspit]

16. I meant "Oh, great" as in "More bad news."

[SpiralHawk]

19. I'm with you, Hissy

Just wanted to emphasize your point...

[Hissyspit]

20. O.k. I reread my first and wasn't sure I was clear.

:)

[Tansy_Gold]

22. And of course this is SUCH a SURPRISE.

not.

[tama]

45. Fed

vanishing from the face of the Earth with a whimpering poof would not be bad news - it would be excellent news, a breath of fresh air into this stale Mordor under the rule of the banksters Sauron's Eye (Fed, ISB, the whole lot that Max Keyser suggest should be decapitated).

[Hissyspit]

61. I don't disagree with you, in the long run. But unfortunately I don't think that is going to happen.

I was responding to the fact that this is one more signal of how bad things are and that nothing we're doing is necessarily to going to fix what is institutionally wrong.

[Demeter]

30. That's One Way to Undo the Federal Reserve Act

and the logical conclusion to the whole fiasco.

[Danascot]

59. The Fed is leveraged more than the derivitives were

From the Big Picture comment:

And the Fed banks are holding total capital of just $45.7 billion against the sum total of $2.19 trillion in assets, meaning the Fed is leveraging its capital 48-to-1. That compares to only 27-to-1 two years ago…

[Festivito]

17. Debt: 04/24/2009 11,185,300,192,981.20 (UP 377,530,118.35) (Tiny moves.)

(Less than a billion, that's tiny.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,885,764,355,032.14 + 4,299,535,837,949.06
DOWN 133,239,400.23 + UP 510,769,518.58

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.8, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,227,058 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $36,526.17.
A family of three owes $109,578.5. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 6,016,171,129.17.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,612,397,865.70.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,463,610,837.77.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 66 reports in 94 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.20B$ per report, 0.25B$/day so far.
There were 141 reports in 206 days of FY2009 averaging 8.23B$ per report, 5.63B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,367 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 18.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/24/2009 11,185,300,192,981.20 BHO (UP 558,423,144,068.12 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,160,575,296,068.80 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/03/2009 +028,967,677,130.84 ------------**********
04/06/2009 +000,073,808,356.95 ------------******* Mon
04/07/2009 +000,123,552,400.07 ------------********
04/08/2009 +000,050,639,456.95 ------------*******
04/09/2009 +024,055,285,655.59 ------------**********
04/10/2009 +000,051,156,797.54 ------------*******
04/13/2009 +000,309,440,014.97 ------------******** Mon
04/14/2009 +000,167,862,523.71 ------------********
04/15/2009 +044,205,591,028.33 ------------**********
04/17/2009 -038,696,374,097.81 -
04/20/2009 +000,193,620,436.16 ------------******** Mon
04/21/2009 -000,363,758,089.93 ---
04/22/2009 +000,051,738,680.14 ------------*******
04/23/2009 -012,857,484,009.95 -
04/24/2009 -000,133,239,400.23 ---

46,199,516,883.33 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,520,668,389,722.13 in last 218 days.
That's 1,521B$ in 218 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 150% of that highest year ever only in 218 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 218 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3850387&mesg_id=3850419

[UpInArms]

21. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.800 Change +0.091 (+0.12%)

US Dollar, New Zealand Dollar to Face Fed, RBNZ Rate Decisions This Week

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar__New_Zealand_Dollar_1240840299691.html

The US dollar and New Zealand dollar are the two major currencies to face the highest event risk this week, as both the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce rate decisions. Adding to the mix, US consumer confidence, Q1 GDP, and ISM manufacturing all have the potential to shake up risk trends.

• US Consumer Confidence (APR) – April 28

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for the month of April is forecasted to continue creeping higher from its record low of 25.3 reached in February up to 29.9. With record keeping having begun in 1967, the steady plunge in sentiment from the 2007 highs of 111.90 makes the extent of the recession especially clear. Nevertheless, a surprisingly strong result could provide a boost to risky assets, as the move would indicate that sentiment may have bottomed out. However, if consumer confidence goes little changed or rises right in line with expectations, the news is unlikely to evoke any reaction from the markets.

• US Gross Domestic Product (1Q A) – April 29

The 08:30 ET advanced reading of Q1 GDP for the US is forecasted to contract for the third straight quarter at a rate of -4.7 percent, following the Q4 contraction of 6.3 percent. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has already declared that the US has been in recession since December 2007, but a plunge in GDP that is sharper than expectations will only suggest that the contraction in growth will continue to worsen. The Federal Reserve really has no room to make monetary policy more accommodative, so traders should watch for the impact of this report on equities, as a surge in risk aversion may only lead the US dollar higher despite the disappointing fundamental scenario.

• Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision – April 29

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to leave the fed funds target range at 0.0 percent - 0.25 percent, and this should remain the case throughout much of the year. In fact, the FOMC starting saying in January that they continue “to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for some time, ” and they Committee said something similar in March. Furthermore, the last statement highlighted that the Committee's policy focus is to support the functioning of financial markets via measures that are likely to keep the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level. As long as we see these sorts of statements continue to be published, the news shouldn’t be too market-moving. However, the statement could have an impact on risk trends if the FOMC announces an expansion of their quantitative easing efforts, and utimately, any news that is positive for the stock markets may be negative for the greenback (which has been trading solely as a safe-haven asset lately), and vice versa.

...more...

Safe Haven Currencies Remain Well Bid

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Safe_Haven_Currencies_Remain_Well_1240916123283.html

Another overnight session of safe-haven bidding with the Yen and USD benefitting from more global uncertainty and lower equity prices. Data overnight has been light with most of the attention centering out of developments in the UK. The shockingly stronger than expected CBI distributive trades survey has been taken with more than a grain of salt after the organization admitted the timing of Easter may have distorted the results. The +3 print was well above a -40 consensus estimate and the previous month’s -44 reading. Also in the UK the first post budget gilts sale outcome was better than feared while UK Treasury Ramsden noted that the recent Sterling weakness had helped to mitigate risks in the UK. In the Eurozone, ECB Wellink followed up on Monday’s market moving Nowotny QE comments after saying that further rate cuts needed to be discussed and that he was non-committal on how low rates should go. The latest earnings out from Daimler have not helped investor confidence after the automaker reported a Q1 loss of nearly double estimates at EUR1.426B. Also generating some attention was the latest research out from Fitch which noted that the pressure on capital positions at major Japanese banks was increasing in quantity and quality. The rise in risk aversion over the past 24 hours has not been favorable to the antipodeans with both the Kiwi and Aussie underperforming on the day, with the higher interest rates leaving these currencies exposed. News that China’s steel makers and global miners have agreed to cut iron ore prices sharply has added to the strain, while downbeat comments out from Australia Treasurer Swan haven’t helped either. Looking ahead to the North American session, Case-Shiller house prices (142.8 expected) are due at 13:00GMT, followed by consumer confidence (29.9 expected) and Richmond Fed manufacturing (-17 expected) at 14:00GMT. ABC consumer confidence (-47 expected) is due out later at 21:00GMT. The markets will also start to key in on Wednesday’s Fed with the focus on additional QE measured along with any signs from Bernanke of stabilization within the economy. US equity futures are down some 1.5% while both crude and gold trade lower by some 2.85% and 0.85% respectively.

...more...

[Tansy_Gold]

23. Cartoon nails it.

We need a smiley like that.

[UpInArms]

25. Timken indicates more job cuts are coming (7,000 job cuts is goal)

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/04/27/ap6344910.html

Bearings and specialty steels maker Timken Co. now sees its struggles in a global recession lasting through all of this year, and the company said Monday it will cut about 3,000 more jobs by the end of this year.

Timken's shares fell $2.12, or 12.6 percent, to end Monday at $14.73.

Timken said it expects to end this year with 7,000 fewer employees than it had at the start of 2008, equivalent to a 25 percent reduction in the company's work force.

James Griffith, Timken president and chief executive officer, said Monday during a conference call with analysts that the company is from 50-to-60 percent complete with the job cuts, with at least 7,000 as the goal.

Timken had net income of $870,000, or a penny per share, in the first quarter, down from $84.5 million, or 88 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter.

...more..

[UpInArms]

26. Sacramento County looking at 1,000-plus job cuts to erase $187 million deficit

http://www.sacbee.com/topstories/story/1815204.html

Sacramento County is considering whether to cut well over 1,000 positions to close a projected $187 million general fund shortfall in the fiscal year starting July 1.

That's according to new figures the County Executive's Office released Monday showing proposed cuts of 907 positions – 640 of which are filled – a reduction of 6.3 percent of the county work force.

And those figures don't include possible cuts to the Sheriff's Department, the District Attorney's Office or the Assessor's Office, which are also facing significant funding shortfalls.

"They all are something we're concerned about. Even the smallest program can have a big impact on the community," said Nav Gill, the county's chief operations officer.

The proposed cuts would affect virtually all facets of county government, including: the office of county counsel, 14 positions; Public Defender's Office, 55; juvenile medical services, 16.5; and Department of Health and Human Services, 116, including 100 filled jobs.

The proposed cuts are far from guaranteed. The county executive's office is reviewing the departmental proposals and could make changes.

...more...

[notesdev]

28. These stats are looking grim...

Very, very low numbers...


"Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 2"

[Demeter]

31. Give It 6 Months--I Predict Great Things Coming

Great and terrible.

[Name removed]

34. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ozymandius]

63. Give it time. Annnnnd... who the hell would talk deletable garbage here at the SMW?

looking at #34

What the hell was that noise?

[Demeter]

65. No Idea

I may even have read it. Or posted it, except there's no nastygram in my email.

[Tansy_Gold]

66. You may not get a nastygram. . . . .

I had a post removed in another thread in another forum. I knew it was gonna get deleted, but it was one of those things you just HAVE to spew out. Later on, sure enough, it was gone, but I never got any message about it.

Just fyi. . . . .

[UpInArms]

29. Risky Lehman bonds allegedly marketed to mentally ill

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Risky-Lehman-notes-sold-vulnerable/story.aspx?guid=%7BF12E52A3%2DBB19%2D47E0%2D8792%2D16A9094118FC%7D

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Mentally ill and elderly investors were among those involved in 102 Hong Kong cases involving vulnerable investors who were sold high-risk products designed by Lehman Brothers, according to a report submitted to a government hearing Tuesday.

<snip>

The revelation was contained in section of a Monetary Authority report into the matter, submitted to a government subcommittee Tuesday and cited in a report by local broadcaster Radio and Television Hong Kong.

Sections of the report detailing the concerns were blacked out of an earlier version released to the public.

The Hong Kong government launched an investigation into the marketing of the products after local investors suffered billions in losses on the minibond products following the collapse of the U.S. investment bank.

...more at link...

[Demeter]

33. Why Not? Their Money Is as Green As Anyone Else's!

Shakes head sadly.

Looks like we are back to April here: showers, cooler temps under 50F. The ornamental trees literally burst into bloom yesterday: pears, cherries, crab apples. With the cool weather coming, we may be able to see and enjoy these blossoms for a few days. The forsythia has already transformed to leaves, and trees are not so naked, except the oaks, who are always suspicious. the rumors of snow are gone, thank goodness. Wouldn't want our Michigan cherry crop frozen out three years in a row.

Have a happy, in spite of them all!

[DemReadingDU]

35. KALW interview with William Black

Monday, April 27, 2009
Your Call 042709 How much of the economic crisis is simply about fraud?

How much of the current economic crisis is simply about fraud? On the next Your Call, we'll have a conversation with William Black, the former senior regulator who cracked down on banks during the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s. He says the financial industry has brought the economy to its knees. So how did they get away with it? You can join us by calling in or by email at [e-mail]. What will it take to bring the banks out of the shadows? It's Your Call, with Rose Aguilar and you.

Guests:
William Black, former senior bank regulator, best known for his thwarted but later vindicated efforts to prosecute S&L crisis fraudster Charles Keating. He is currently an Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri in Kansas City.

http://yourcallradio.blogspot.com/2009/04/your-call-042709-how-much-of-economic.html


direct link to interview
http://a4.g.akamai.net/7/4/27043/v0001/kalw.download.akamai.com/27043/YourCall/042709yc.mp3

appx 40 minutes

[Hugin]

36. Bair Seeks to Expand Power, Ending ‘Too Big to Fail’ (Update1)

April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair sought authority to close “systemically important” financial firms, marking her boldest attempt yet to expand the agency’s reach.

The FDIC should be able to take over and shut bank-holding companies and other large institutions instead of just failed commercial banks, Bair said today in a speech at the Economic Club of New York. Such power would shield taxpayers from losses when government protects companies deemed “too big to fail,” a concept that should be “tossed into the dustbin,” she said.

“The FDIC is up to the task, and whether alone or in conjunction with other agencies, the FDIC is central to the solution,” Bair said. “Given our many years of experience resolving banks and closing them, we’re well-suited to run a new resolution program.”

The speech represents the first time Bair has said she wants the new power, countering arguments that the Federal Reserve is best equipped to manage the authority as Congress prepares to write legislation on the issue this year. Bair has previously said that some regulator should have resolution authority and suggested her agency could do the job.

More here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeH.c5sqMplw&refer=home

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

It's the oddest thing... I was so angry when I read MarketWatch's take on this speech I was ready to post the speech here, tear it apart, and suggest maybe Ms. Bair needs to "spend more time with family". But, Bloomberg's write-up of the speech makes it sound almost reasonable. Yet, it's only another call for the 'good bank, bad bank idea.'

The two things I remember from the MarketWatch story was a quote which, to me... Made Bair sound like she was calling for Corporate Welfare in so many words and much hand-wringing about the 'too-big-to-fail' problem.

It was Corporate Welfare in that it sounded as if it was a call for the Government to be responsible via some Agency to 'help' unwind these behemoth by holding their hand and paying off their creditors... I was appalled! No! Not until there is a similar Agency to help Individual Americans unwind their personal debt and proceed through a Bankruptcy. It was just more of treating Corporations as people and people as a commodity in my mind.

Now, the 'too-big-to-fail' problem... There is already a Government Agency charged with MAKING SURE THIS DOESN'T HAPPEN! The FTC is charged with approving all MERGERS & some ACQUISITIONS. Not to mention perform an anti-trust function. It has failed miserably. So, we're in this position because these Conglomerations should have never been allowed. There is and was a process to REGULATE this all along and it has been willfully marginalized, ill used and corrupted leading us to this point.

I would post the MarketWatch story for comparison, but, I can't find it.

[Demeter]

53. Yeah, the Editorial Slant Is All in Media Circles

I say if Sheila has the intestinal fortitude to take on Citibank and BoA, more power to her.

If you want a mess cleaned up, best bet is to call in a woman. Every guy knows that.

[truthisfreedom]

39. Huh??? U.S. Stocks Gain on Rise in Consumer Confidence; Home Depot Shares Advance

Stocks rise on Consumer Confidence, which rises on stocks???!!!???!!!

Consumer Confidence in U.S. Jumps More Than Forecast (Update1)
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Shobhana Chandra

April 28 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence jumped more than forecast in April as stocks rallied, mortgage rates dropped and Americans thought more jobs will become available, adding to signs the recession may be easing.

The Conference Board’s sentiment index climbed to 39.2, the highest level since November, from 26.9 in March, the New York- based research group said today. The gain was the biggest since November 2005.

The improvement raises the odds that recent gains in consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, will be sustained. The report indicates efforts by Federal Reserve policy makers, meeting today and tomorrow, to lower borrowing costs and unclog lending may be starting to pay off.

(more)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahd0DXeYFljA&refer=home

[DemReadingDU]

41. Financial Flogging For Dummies

10 minute video created by tjeffersonsghost

Financial Crisis Spelled Out So Any Dumbed Down Citizen Can Understand. Starring Dick Fuld, Alan Schwartz, Ben Bernenke, Ken Lewis, Hank Paulson, Alan Greenspan, and Many More Thugs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFY-DmCyLPM


edit - The names listed towards the beginning of the video become clear as the video plays. Many people would not have a clue who these thugs are, but we SMWatchers know!


video discussion here
http://tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=92889

[Roland99]

46. Howdy, SMWers!

I still lurk about..mostly in the evenings. Working this contract job in Indy, which I've nicknaed: wIndy. ha ha.

Commuting 130 miles each way, for now...cheaper than a motel.

BUT...have a followup interview for full-time in Orlando coming up. Feel good about this one!

Hope y'all are doing fine.

[Dr.Phool]

47. Howdy! Hope everything works out well for you.

I'm spending the week-nd in Orlando this week-end. I'll let you know how it is.

[Ghost Dog]

48. Well done! But, such a commute, cheaper than alternatives,

sounds crazy to Europeans. :silly:

Drive carefully.

[Demeter]

54. I'm So Glad for You, Roland!

That's a rough commute, Road Warrior! Be safe.

[antigop]

57. I was wondering about you...thanks for the update.. Best of luck.. n/t

[ozymandius]

62. Glory!

What joyous news, Roland. I hope the round trip is an easy one. Break a leg in the Orlando interview!

:toast: :woohoo:

[Robbien]

49. Shareholders throwing shoes at management

Fortis's extraordinary meeting had to be adjourned on Tuesday after angry shareholders raided the stage and threw shoes at the management.

Mischael Modrikamen, an activist lawyer representing 2,300 small shareholders in the once-dominant banking group, is hoping to scupper the planned sale of Fortis Bank to BNP Paribas, the French bank, in favour of recreating a Belgian financial champion.

Management including Jozef de Mey, chairman, faced several calls to resign from angry shareholders.

http://dealbreaker.com/2009/04/who-throws-a-shoe.php

[BelgianMadCow]

60. I watched all of it live and it was quite the spectacle

there will be a continuation in court about the argument Modrikamen made.

He wanted 170 million shares to not be able to vote as the comany had failed to give a transparency statement about those (largely recently added) shares.

Especially the fact that a Cayman Island hedgefund called Eton was allowed in for the vote is incendiary - it seems it is run by a guy who is pretty linked to BNP itself. They hold 70 million votes and in total 650 million votes were registered for the shareholders meeting.

This is not over.

Also, the CEO Karel De Boeck, when asked about the viability of a standalone Fortis Bank (a return to the way it was before a bailout & weekend deal with BNP) stated flatly this was OFF THE TABLE for the government (implying THEY would have liked to explore that option). That this alternative hasn't even had a fair chance is making many shareholders angry.

Belgium is the only country that has given away his largest bank, and on the cheap as well.

The upcoming election in June is very likely to punish the current coalition government severely - the gain will likely be for a very rightwing party (LDD) and an extreme right one, Vlaams belang.

A sad day.

[ozymandius]

64. W's Iraqi journalist assailant sure made an impression didn't he?

I feel a new western custom catching on.

[Dr.Phool]

52. Interesting catch by Denninger.

(snip)

The Italians are getting into the act:

With municipal bond investigations spreading to Europe from the United States, Italian authorities have seized about $300 million in assets of four global banks — JPMorgan Chase, Deutsche Bank, UBS and Depfa — whose officials have been accused of fraud.

The Guardia di Finanza in Milan, the financial police of Italy, took over real estate properties, bank accounts and stock holdings on Monday to assure it could collect from the banks if their officials were found guilty and the banks were held responsible.

Dozens of state and local governments in the United States have been victimized by these "deals" in the United States as well, yet Italy is the first to bring an actual enforcement action and seize assets? Why?

Lawless behavior by both Wall Street executives and government officials appears to have been pervasive, it is outrageous, and hundreds of billions (if not trillions) of dollars has been stolen from the taxpayer as a direct result.

(snip)

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/authors/2-Karl-Denninger

[Demeter]

55. WOW! Bet That Doesn't Hit the Front Pages Any Time Soon

Probably not even the finance/business pages.

It's the end of the world as we know it.