Mexican ambassador (to US): Flu's reach exaggerated (only 8 deaths can be pinned on the virus)

[sabra]

Source: The Hill

The Mexican ambassador to the United States said Thursday reports about the deadly H1N1 flu virus have dramatically overstated the disease's reach, and that just eight deaths can be definitively pinned on the virus.

Ambassador Arturo Sarukhan, addressing a luncheon sponsored by the Meridian International Group, said just 100 H1N1 virus cases have been confirmed in Mexico, far fewer than the nearly 2,000 press reports have indicated.

"Things in Mexico basically seem to be at a plateau," Sarukhan said, adding that the next 24 to 48 hours will indicate how far the virus has spread and whether it's been brought under control.

Sarukhan said those who would try to close the border with Mexico to stop the spread of the disease are misguided, and praised efforts of his own government and Canadian and American governments in responding to the crisis.


Read more: http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/mexican-ambassador-flus-reach-exaggerated-2009-04-30.html

[notadmblnd]

1. I read that last last night

it's beginning to look like another false alarm.

[kestrel91316]

2. Not a false alarm. When you have a novel flu virus like this is,

you HAVE to follow certain procedures to evaluate the epidemic and try to mitigate its effects. To fail to do so is the worst sort of negligence.

One of the problems facing public health officials is, if they do their jobs exactly right and nobody dies (or few die), the public will be screaming that it was a lot of fuss over nothing and overreaction. But if they DON'T do their job, or they do and somebody dies anyway, or lots of people die, the public screams that they didn't do enough. It's definitely a case of "damned if they do, damned if they don't". There's no winning in the game of public opinion for public health officials.

Fortunately, those of us in the system and on its periphery know full well how hard they work and what a great job they do every day to make clueless John Q. and Jane Publics safer.

[Lena inRI]

3. Hear-hear, kestrel. . .loud and clear.

Any public service job---mine having been a public high school teacher for 33 years---burns ya out for this very dilemma you explain.

Thank you for your service, kestrel.

:applause: :applause: :applause: :applause: :applause:

[mrs_p]

6. recommend your post!

[eyepaddle]

7. I'll second the "Hear Hear!" without reservation.

Public health is a tricky occupation--for exactly the reasons you list.

But if I may paraphrase, I hope this winds up being much ado about little.

[kestrel91316]

8. I look at it more as a really great dress rehearsal for the real thing.

[eyepaddle]

10. That would be my prefered outcome

I am in the public health/safety field (very low level IOW at a single facility) but we are implementing our plans, and monitioring information in a way that is pretty much impossible to replicate merely through training.

If nothing else, I have been happy with the governemt's flow of information, state, academia, fed and even UN are all playing well together.

I have my fingers crossed (and then some).

[Baby Snooks]

15. Which this may yet be...

The Spanish Flu began as a mild flu in the fall of 1917 and then again in the spring of 1918. And then it appeared again in the fall of 1918 and killed an estimated 50 million people. Some dispute that figure claiming that it was somewhere between 20 and 40 million people. Given the estimated world population in 1918, 20 million was still the worst pandemic the world had ever seen. The sad thing is some may get a false sense of security with this. And if it explodes in the fall, they will ignore it. And we will have another 1918.

[kestrel91316]

16. If it does explode in the fall, they won't ignore it. They are well aware of

what happened in 1918. But the possibility of future increased mortality is not reason for them to handle this differently NOW. "They" being the CDC and WHO and other public health agencies.

[rtassi]

12. I don't think anyone really is questioning the integrity of those public

health officials and servants who are required to implement policy as created ... I think many of us are tired of being jerked around by public policy that has no real basis in fact; and smart enough to know the difference between a real health threat, and a manufactured one. This flu, is yet again another sell ... Plant a story ... create a panic, dominate the teevee with endless speculations ... play on people's irrational fears ... and make a profit. Works every time. Frankly I find it embarrassing ...

[Mojorabbit]

18. My worry is that Mexico has thousands

in the hospitals with pneumonia. Tourists are leaving in droves. No tourists are coming in. How much of this is to save their economy and ow much is the truth.

[Hannah Bell]

19. hospitalizations reported as around 1500 & dropping. tourists not coming

because of the hyped publicity, another negative consequence of reporting speculation as fact, speculating on whether this one will be like 1918, etc.

yeah, "information".

[jwirr]

4. I'd rather have a false alarm for a president I trust than wait until it is

too late.

[hedgehog]

5. If this is so, why is Mexico risking so much of its economy

by shutting from Mexico City and the Cancun tourist areas? Why is the WHO taking such an interest?

[Abacus]

9. Seems like officials are now trying to have it both ways...

1) The fatality rate is low.
2) The infection rate is low.

Worldwide, we have 18 confirmed deaths and 276 confirmed cases: 6.5% fatality rate. We have 186 suspected deaths and 4,426 suspected cases: 4.2% fatality rate. Certainly there are cases that have not been reported, but how many? If we assume the lethality of this flu is on par with that of other flus (~0.6%), we would expect 3,000 cases for 18 confirmed deaths. Using the numbers in the article -- 8 deaths in 100 cases implies 8% fatality rate. Assuming standard flu fatality numbers (~0.6%), there should be over 1300 cases. It seems to me that both 1) and 2) cannot be true.

In this case, I think the ambassador is simply trying to protect his nation's interests.

[demo dutch]

11. Katrina???? I heard the complete opposite, plus many more infections as many as 20,000

Goverment is hiding the facts, this is according to emails going out from some doctors!

[glinda]

13. "So c'mon down and paaarteeeee!"

:sarcasm:

[mbperrin]

14. For sure, it knocked the thieving bankers right off the news cycle.

nt

[hugo_from_TN]

17. Translation - "Tourists, please don't cancel your trips. Come! Spend!"