STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday May 22

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday May 22, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 2

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 21, 2009

Dow... 8,292.13 -129.91 (-1.57%)
Nasdaq... 1,695.25 -32.59 (-1.89%)
S&P 500... 888.33 -15.14 (-1.68%)
Gold future... 951.20 +13.80 (+1.47%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.36 +0.17 (+5.26%)
30-Year Bond 4.31 +0.16 (+3.93%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Intermediate Term
Nothing is Settled
BY MARTIN GOLDBERG

The rally off of the March '08 lows, not only has been historic in its magnitude relative to its duration, but it is also historic in terms of thelegions of believers in a new bull market that the rally seems to have created.According to Investors Intelligence, bulls now outnumber bears by 41% to 34%.As of Wednesday evening, the VIX volatility index is below 30. Instead of becoming irrationally exuberant and lose themselves once again in the long term dogma, bulls would be wiser to peel a sharp and jaundiced eye on the marketitself. In spite of all of the new good will, the market, at least in terms of the US major market indices, is showing near term signs of weakening although nothing has been confirmed in the intermediate term.

Conversely, Bears would also be well served to consider that the previous bull market - until it moved into a downtrend and then crashed - it produced several years where there was an absence of even a correction of 10%. With the thought of that apparently "safe" market fresh in everyone's mind,and with capital depleted over the last few years, the desire and/or need to rally-chase is quite logical and it has been successful for 9 consecutive weeks.

.....

Although the market was down fairly decisively today, still nothing has been settled. Here is the weekly chart of the S&P 500 updated. As can be clearly seen below, while the index has struggled over the last 2 weeks, there is every reason to believe that the market is just pausing. If 880 is taken out, that would be a weekly lower low and that would be technically significant -especially if this were to occur on high volume.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermental reports today n/t

[the other one]

25. State Unemployment rates today at 10:00

http://www.bls.gov/lau/

[MARALE]

53. My states UIR went down

It is now around 5.8% I am not sure where the jobs are though, maybe in farming??

[ozymandius]

3. Oil stays above $61 amid weakening US dollar

SINGAPORE – Oil prices stayed above $61 a barrel Friday in Asia as investors sought a hedge against inflation amid weakening U.S. dollar.

Benchmark crude for July delivery was up 53 cents to $61.58 a barrel by late afternoon in Singapore in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Thursday, the contract fell 99 cents to settle at $61.05.

....

Crude prices have also been buoyed this week by two refinery fires in the U.S. and renewed fighting between the government and rebels in oil-rich Nigeria.

Investors brushed off pessimistic comments this week from the U.S. central bank. The Federal Reserve sees "significant downside risks" for the U.S. economy, with the global financial system still "vulnerable to further shocks," according to minutes of a Fed meeting released this week.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for June delivery rose 2.53 cents to $1.83 a gallon and heating oil gained 0.66 cent to $1.54 a gallon. Natural gas for June delivery was steady at $3.60 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. World markets mixed as investors rethink rally

BANGKOK – Asian stocks wilted Friday as the possibility of credit rating downgrades for major economies and bleak unemployment figures in the U.S. added to fears the recent massive rally was built on shifting sands. European shares were moderately higher.

After piling into battered markets over the past two months, running up gains of 30 percent or more from Asia to the U.S., investors are increasingly hard pressed to justify hopes that a global economic recovery is around the corner.

....

As trading got underway in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was up 0.6 percent, France's CAC 40 rose 0.5 percent and Germany's DAX gained 0.3 percent.

US. stock futures pointed to modest gains Friday on Wall Street. Dow futures were up 34 points, or 0.4 percent, to 8,329 and S&P futures gained 0.9, or 0.1 percent, to 889.60.

In Tokyo, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average gave up early gains to drop 38.84 points, or 0.4 percent, to 9,225.81, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was off 136.97, or 0.8 percent, at 17,062.52. Elsewhere, South Korea's Kospi slipped 1.3 percent and Australia's benchmark fell 1.4 percent.

Among the few gainers, Taiwan rose 0.3 percent and Malaysia's index rose 0.8 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090522/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets_32

[Ghost Dog]

47. Taiwan's economy shrinks

Taipei: Taiwan's economy shrank an unprecedented 10.24 per cent last quarter as exports fell and businesses cut spending, a decline that may mark the trough in the island's recession.

The drop follows the fourth quarter's revised 8.61 per cent contraction from a year earlier, and is the biggest slump since official records began in 1952, the statistics bureau said in Taipei today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 12 economists was for a 9.26 per cent decrease.

Taiwan's stock index rose to the highest in almost nine months today on optimism China's fiscal stimulus and closer relations with the mainland may help ease the economy's slump.

/. http://www.godubai.com/gulftoday/article.asp?AID=23&Section=Business

There's an awful lot of fundamentally misguided wishful economic thinking out there.

[ozymandius]

5. GMAC receives $7.5 billion in new Treasury aid

WASHINGTON – Auto lender GMAC Financial Services will receive $7.5 billion in additional government aid to keep loans flowing to would-be buyers of GM and Chrysler vehicles and shore up its capital postion — marking the second time the government has stepped in to prop up the lender.

To help GMAC raise additional funds, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. took the rare step Thursday of allowing the junk-rated company to gain access to its debt guarantee program. GMAC will be allowed to issue as much as $7.4 billion in debt, guaranteed by the FDIC in case the company defaults on payment.

In addition, the Federal Reserve waived rules to give GMAC's new bank, called Ally Bank, more leeway to make loans to GM customers.

....

After failing the government's bank stress test, the Treasury Department mandated earlier this month that GMAC raise $11.5 billion in additional capital, including $9.1 billion of new Tier 1 capital. But GMAC, which reported a first-quarter loss of $675 million, has seen rising defaults in its auto finance division. That, combined with soured assets in its Residential Capital LLC mortgage unit, made it difficult for the company to raise capital from private investors.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090522/ap_on_bi_ge/us_treasury_gmac

[tclambert]

18. I still don't see enough to justify GM stock going up 32% yesterday.

Technically, 32% is a lot.

[Demeter]

22. They Put the Irrational Into Exuberance

[tclambert]

61. Okay, today GM went down 25% (-$0.49)

A one day bubble.

[saigon68]

32. Another Little Timmy $$$$$ DROP

i wonder how much their CEO rakes in per year? Or hour for that matter.

[ozymandius]

6. Jobless claims: It's still tough out there

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- In two indications of continuing job market weakness, a drop in the government's weekly reading of initial unemployment claim filings failed to match the surge of the prior week, and the number of people filing on an ongoing basis rose to a record high for the 16th straight week.

....

The total was less than expected. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast 625,000 initial claims, according to a consensus estimate.

The 4-week moving average, which smoothes out volatility in the labor market reading, was 628,500, a decline of 3,500 from the previous week's revised average of 632,000.

....

Continuing claims have remained at a record high, even as initial jobless claims dipped on a weekly basis, because unemployed workers are having a hard time finding a new job once they lose their job.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/21/news/economy/jobless_claims/?postversion=2009052109

---

What the article fails to indicate is that we are clearly still in OH SHIT! territory - even with the moving averages. The unemployment rate is really laughable. The article mentions only U3 data with a benign 8.9% unemployment rate. How refreshing it would be to read some blunt honesty with the U6 numbers - roughly double those of U3.

[ozymandius]

7. TARP Warrant Sale Shows Banks May Reap ‘Ruthless Bargain’

May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Banks negotiating to reclaim stock warrants they granted in return for Troubled Asset Relief Program money may shortchange taxpayers by almost $10 billion if Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s first sale sets the pace, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

While 17 financial institutions have repaid TARP funds, only one has come to terms with the U.S. on the value of the rights to buy stock that taxpayers received for the risk of recapitalizing the industry. That was Old National Bancorp in Evansville, Indiana, which gave the Treasury Department $1.2 million for warrants that may have been worth $5.81 million, according to the data.

.....

Under the Old National warrants formula, Bank of America Corp. would save $2.03 billion, followed by Wells Fargo & Co. at $1.48 billion and JPMorgan Chase & Co. at $1.46 billion. Morgan Stanley’s benefit would be $983 million, Citigroup Inc.’s would come in at $965 million and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. would have $693 million, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg.

.....

Geithner wants to move swiftly to sell the TARP warrants, he said on May 20. Their worth depends on assumptions made about the chances the underlying stock will go higher than the rights. Depending on the input, different valuation models reach a range of conclusions.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOQPmbrh1ZrA&refer=exclusive

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See. Geithner offers free money. As long as the recipient is a bank. And connected. And massively under-capitalized.

[ozymandius]

8. More from Naked Capitalism

Is Treasury About to Give Banks Yet Another Subsidy By Letting Them Repay TARP Warrants Too Cheaply?

The very fact that it took such a long headline to explain the latest (possible) Treasury bouquet to the TARP recipients says the odds are high the troubling scenario will come to pass. With the Fed a combo hedge fund/SIV and the Treasury actively engaged in regulatory arbitrage (evading budgetary restrictions by making clever use of the Fed) the powers that be have established that the public can indeed be fooled by fancy financial footwork.

The latest bit of chicanery, as Bloomberg tells us, is that the first TARP repayment, by munchkin Old National Bancorp in Evansville, Indiana, was at what appears to be a big discount to the value of the warrants, an estimated 80%. If this becomes the formula for all TARP repayments, the taxpayer will again be getting the short end of the stick.

more from Bloomberg article listed above...

[ozymandius]

9. U.S. to Steer GM Toward Bankruptcy

The Obama administration is preparing to send General Motors into bankruptcy as early as the end of next week under a plan that would give the automaker tens of billions of dollars more in public financing as the company seeks to shrink and reemerge as a global competitor, sources familiar with the discussions said.

The move comes as the administration prepares to lift the nation's other faltering car company, Chrysler, from bankruptcy protection as soon as next week, industry sources said.

The shifts into and out of bankruptcy are landmarks in the Obama administration's attempt to broker a historic restructuring of the American auto industry in the space of months.

....

Under the GM draft bankruptcy plan, the company would receive just short of $30 billion in additional federal loans, a source said.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/21/AR2009052104467.html

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This was one of the major sticking points with a GM bankruptcy scenario when bankruptcy became a serious possibility many months ago. Without a bridge loan, or other such financing, Chapter 11 would quickly slide into Chapter 7 because GM's cash burn rate is so high. That would have been devastating: first for GM employees and retirees and, second, for businesses that rely on GM contracts.

[Demeter]

12. I'd Reply GM to Steer US Towards Bankruptcy, But that Would Be Unfair to GM

[tclambert]

19. That's the kind of thing that happens when you let a drunk do the driving.

Yet another George Bush joke.

[Demeter]

10. Morning Ozy

I'm not going to engage in the massive hypocrisy that "Good morning" would imply.

So it's Friday already, and it's come to this. The precipice that is GM bankruptcy is now only minutes away and the vehicle is approaching the speed of light. That faint sound you hear is the screaming of one hundred years of mechanically ingenious innovators in Michigan, going the way of the buggy whip. Sic transit gloria mundi.

Well, assuming there still is anything left tonight, Weekend Economists will be going where no thread has gone before--the 23rd century! It's Star Trek Memorial Day Weekend, 4 days of pure escapism and horrifyingly gruesome economic data, debate, analysis. Join us when the hedonism of barbecue, games, pool and sun pall. We'll visit the graveyards of the American dream and the American economy, and pay our respects to the men and women who died to protect multinational corporate interests while they were told they were serving their country. And this economy is the thanks we all get for the sacrifice.

Kahnnnnnn! or rather: Connnnnn!

[Demeter]

11. US will lose AAA rating: Pimco

http://business.smh.com.au/business/us-will-lose-aaa-rating-pimco-20090522-bhtj.html

Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, has warned the United States will eventually lose its top AAA credit rating, a fear that had already spooked financial markets on Thursday and could keep the US dollar, stocks and bonds under heavy selling pressure.

The United States will face a downgrade in "at least three to four years, if that, but the market will recognise the problems before the rating services - just like it did today," Gross said.


....US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner also sounded alarms on the burgeoning budget deficit and its impact on the greenback.

"We must get our fiscal house in order or risk having government borrowing crowd out productive private investment," said Geithner in testimony before a congressional panel on Thursday. He said the administration has to make sure its policies help retain confidence in the dollar's value.

"My basic obligation is to make sure we put in place policies that sustain confidence in this economy, in our currency, that we sustain a strong dollar," Geithner said. (GEITHNER WAS NOT STRUCK BY LIGHTNING, PROOF THAT GOD IS DEAD, OR AT LEAST, NOT PAYING ATTENTION)

Meanwhile, US credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service on Thursday said it is comfortable with the AAA rating on the United States, but it is not guaranteed forever.

"There are longer-term pressures on the rating, that's very clear," said Steven Hess, lead analyst for Moody's.

Standard & Poor's, asked on Thursday about market moves on concerns about the US sovereign credit rating, cited its January affirmation of the AAA rating.

S&P analysts Nikola Swann and John Chambers wrote at that time that their affirmation came "despite our judgement that fiscal risk has noticeably increased," but saw that deterioration as temporary.

I GIVE IT 3 MONTHS.

[AnneD]

44. Less than three months Demeter....

And what Kirk shouted was....

CONNED!!!!!!!


To make an analogy, being middle class in todays economy is like being marooned on Ceti-Alpha 5 and not have the Genesis device. We've been

CONNED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Demeter]

49. You Actually Made Me Chuckle

thanks! I really needed that.

[AnneD]

57. Have we had a ST theme for the WEE.....

Aren't we doing the Gilligan's Island this weekend?

[Demeter]

62. We Could do them in Parallel, I Suppose

But Gilligan's Island is SO 4th of July....

[AnneD]

65. You're right.....

Gilligan's Island is soooooo 4th. Maybe Star Trek but haven't we done that before? I am just thinking about seeing the new one this weekend. Since it is Memorial Day, maybe we can do 'A Salute to Our Brother's in Arms'

"We're not here to do the decent thing, we're here to follow orders! Saving Private Ryan.

"Now I want you to remember that no ever won a war by dying for his country. He won it by making the other poor dumb die for his country." Patton

", man, this is better than Disneyland." Apocalypse Now

We are advancing constantly and we're not interested in holding onto anything except the enemy. We're going to hold onto him by the nose and we're going to kick him in the . We're going to kick the out of him all the time and we're gonna go through him like through a goose." Patton.

War is too important to be left to politicians. They have neither the time, the training, nor the inclination for strategic thought.”
Dr. Strangelove (1964) – General Jack D. Ripper (Sterling Hayden)

“A brilliant man will find a way not to fight a war.”
Pearl Harbor (2001) – Admiral Yamamoto (Mako)

“At the next war let all the Kaisers, presidents and generals and diplomats go into a big field and fight it out first among themselves.”
All Quiet on the Western Front (1930) – Katczinsky (Louis Wolheim)

“Every man who wages war believes God is on his side. I'll warrant God should often wonder who is on his.”
Cromwell (1970) – Oliver Cromwell (Richard Harris)

“It is well to dream of glorious war in a snug armchair at home, but it is a very different thing to see it first hand.”
Barry Lyndon (1975) – Narrator (Michael Hordern)

“When I get home people will ask me, "Hey Hoot, why do you do it man? Why? You some war junkie?" You know what I'll say? I won't say a god damn word. Why? They won't understand. They won't understand why we do it. They won't understand that it's about the men next to you, and that's it. That's all it is.”
Black Hawk Down (2001) – ‘Hoot’ (Eric Bana)

"Clothes are the enemy. Without clothes, there would be no sickness, there'd be no war. I ask you, sir, can you imagine two great armies on the battlefield, no uniforms, completely nude? No way of telling friend from foe, all brothers together."
The Seven Year Itch (1955) – Waitress (Doro Merande)

“War is young men dying and old men talking.”
Troy (2004) – Odysseus (Sean Bean)

“Heroes are something we create, something we need. It's a way for us to understand what is almost incomprehensible, how people could sacrifice so much for us, but for my dad and these men the risks they took, the wounds they suffered, they did that for their buddies, they may have fought for their country but they died for their friends.”
Flags of Our Fathers (2006) – James Bradley (Thomas McCarthy)

“Only the dead have seen the end of war.”
Black Hawk Down (2001) – Screen Title

“This is war, Peacock. Casualties are inevitable. You can not make an omelet without breaking some eggs, every cook will tell you that.”
Clue (1985) – Colonel Mustard (Martin Mull)

“We who have seen war, will never stop seeing it. In the silence of the night, we will always hear the screams.”
We Were Soldiers (2002) – Joseph Galloway (Barry Pepper)

“War is a sin, but sometimes, a necessary one.”
Elizabeth (1998) – Arundel (Edward Hardwicke)

“Americans traditionally love to fight. All real Americans love the sting of battle. When you were kids, you all admired the champion marble shooter, the fastest runner, big league ball players, the toughest boxers. Americans love a winner and will not tolerate a loser. Americans play to win all the time.”
Patton (1970) – General George Patton (George C. Scott)

“You still think it's beautiful to die for your country. The first bombardment taught us better. When it comes to dying for country, it's better not to die at all.”
All Quiet on the Western Front (1930) – Paul Baumer (Lew Ayres)

“Imagine a whole lifetime full of hopes and dreams and ambitions being wiped out by a two-inch accident like a bullet.”
Sweet Bird of Youth (1962) – Chance Wayne (Paul Newman)

“In my humble opinion, in the nuclear world, the true enemy is war itself.”
Crimson Tide (1995) – Lieutenant Commander Ron Hunter (Denzel Washington)

“The ultimate ideal for a warrior is to lay down his sword.”
Hero (2002) – Nameless (Jet Li)

[Demeter]

66. Non-Conforming Pacifist That I Am, I Don't Do War Movies

Probably because of all that mandatory "Combat" viewing in the 60's. My dad watched that show for some unknown reason (he was in a car accident as a teen which resulted in a deferment from Korea due to back injury, so it wasn't reliving past glories).

I don't recall more than occasional passing mention of Star Trek--certainly no weekend devotion to meditation on Mount Seleya.

How about Flag Day for war crimes films? That's 2 weeks...

[amandabeech]

69. Terrific post! Thanks!!

I think I'll pull out "Dr. Strangelove" this weekend.

[AnneD]

72. Demeter, Amanda.......

Memorial Day started out as a day that folks remember to care for the graves of those that fought defending our country. War movies (at least the good ones) are nothing more than the retelling of their heroics. Before there was Hollywood there was Homer telling the story of the Iliad and the Odyssey. Feel free to quote them too. If you read the quotes I include both-because generally the most pacifistic person you'll ever meet is the soldier that has been to war.

[amandabeech]

73. My family still carries on the tradition, but includes civilians as well.

This year, I'm stuck in DC with bronchitis, but usually I'm in Michigan (HI, Demeter!), helping my Mom and other relatives with six cemeteries and three vets. I always remember my vet relatives who lie at rest elsewhere.

My hometown has a small parade ending in the town cemetery. Before the parade, the local vets clubs put miniature flags on all the veterans graves, which include some from every war starting with the Civil War.
It is an old cemetery with mature trees, and it is beautiful dressed in flags and flowers.

The program at the cemetery always begins with patriotic music from the school band, an opening prayer, a reading of the Gettysburg Address, a 21 gun salute, taps played by two cornetists--one in the cemetery and one from a grove of trees across the street, and a closing prayer. It meant so much to my Dad, a WWII vet, that I get choked up just writing about it.

I'm afraid that I can't add to your selection of quotes, but maybe you can imagine a tradition carried on in a small town that still has some connection to its roots.

[Demeter]

13. Glaxo in potential $1.9 billion tax battle with IRS

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090522/bs_nm/us_glaxo_irs_1

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) – British-based drug company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) is battling the U.S. Internal Revenue Service over a potential $1.9 billion in back taxes, interest and penalties.

Glaxo had already detailed the dispute in its annual report in March, but the case was highlighted by The Wall Street Journal on Friday, which said the IRS was investigating a tax-savings technique employed by the company known as "earnings stripping."

The practice usually involves reducing taxable profits in the U.S. by claiming excessive interest deductions on intercompany loans from units abroad.

Glaxo, the world's second-largest drugmaker, said in the annual report that in this case the dispute arose over its "reclassification of an inter-company financing arrangement ... from debt to equity and its consequent recharacterisation of the amounts paid as dividends subject to withholding tax."

Glaxo is contesting the IRS argument over tax liabilities going back to 2001 and initiated actions in the U.S. tax court in August 2008.

It does not expect a court decision before 2011, assuming the matter cannot be resolved before then, it said in the annual report. Glaxo estimates the IRS claim for tax, penalties and interest for the period 2001-2003 is $864 million, with an additional potential liability for 2004-2008 of $1.059 billion....

[Demeter]

14. Dave Lindorff: When It Comes to National Labor Law, We Have a Corporate Crime Wave

http://blog.buzzflash.com/lindorff/239

A new study of 1,004 union organizing drives conducted by the director of labor education research at Cornell University's School of Industrial and Labor Relations has found that two-third of the companies involved were violating U.S. labor law by holding one-on-one interrogations of workers, by threatening workers about their union support, by firing union organizers, or using half a dozen other illegal tactics to defeat unionization campaigns.

Prof. Kate Bronfenbrenner, author of No Holds Barred: The Intensification of Employer Opposition to Organizing, says that these illegal tactics by employers have been used to drive union representation at American companies down to only 12.4 percent from a level of 22 percent just 30 years ago.

If a similar level of illegal behavior by companies was reported dealing with, say, false billing of customers, deceptive reports to shareholders, or violation of environmental laws, there would be a clamor for action in Congress, and among the public, but so far, there is no outcry over this wholesale violation of the nation's labor laws.

One reason may be because nobody except the unions themselves and the companies breaking the law would know about this particular corporate crime wave.

The only article I've seen on this study was published by The New York Times, but it was run in an inside page of the Times business section, which is largely ignored by most readers.

Why would an article about workers be consigned to the business pages? Is it only of interest to businesses and investors? Surely not. The author of the piece, Steven Greenhouse, one of the nation's last journalists to actually have a labor beat, is a fine reporter, and writes his articles not in business jargon but in a style that would be easily understood by anyone who could read. His article, headlined "Study Says Antiunion Tactics Are Becoming More Common," surely belongs in the front section of the newspaper, and in fact, given its shocking evidence of rampant criminality on the part of employers on a national scale, should be on the front page of the paper if editors were applying honest news judgment (How many people are impacted? How new is the information? How dramatic is the new information?).

But a second reason may be that unions themselves are doing a poor job of getting the story out.

Right now the U.S. labor movement is desperately trying to win passage of the Employee Free Choice Act, a bill which, if passed as currently written -- a long shot at this point -- would address some of the issues raised in Prof. Bronfenbrenner's study by eliminating the need for secret ballot unionization votes. Those elections, companies, and their labor-busting lawyers have long ago learned, can be delayed for years while they illegally whittle away at union support. But because the unions are trying to keep the support of a wavering President Barack Obama and of Democrats in Congress for passage of EFCA, in the face of massive lobbying by big business interests, they are avoiding the kind of street politics that would make this corporate crime wave a big story....

Of course, a third problem is that American workers have long been quiescent on the issue of labor unions. Polls show that a majority of Americans would like to have a union where they work, but very few of us seem willing to fight for that right. Maybe with polls showing that over 50 percent of Americans now worry that they may be laid off, and with companies clearly using the economic crisis as an excuse for bashing employees, that quiescence is ending. The only way to find out is for the labor movement to call for street action.


DAVE LINDORFF is a Philadelphia-based journalist and long time labor activist. His latest book is "The Case for Impeachment" (St. Martin's Press, 2006). His work is available at www.thiscantbehappening.net.

[End Of The Road]

30. I doubt this is just a problem with union shops.

My boss (small company) is proud to violate the FLSA. Any complaints about the abusive hours, including seven-day work weeks for weeks on end, is met with "in this economy you're lucky to have a job at all. Get back to your desk."

[Demeter]

34. It's the American Way

Labor has no value. None. The rich don't work and they are just fine, so anybody who does is less.

[Demeter]

15. Wall St. and the Media Are Trying to Make Us Forget Who Started the Financial Crash

By Les Leopold, AlterNet

http://www.alternet.org/story/140123/

It’s fast approaching the time Wall Street has been waiting for: the time when the media and the public forget what got us into this economic mess. As massive doses of taxpayer Viagra lift the stock market ticker, we hold out hope that our 401k and pension plans will re-erect themselves along with our jobs. We feel stimulated by the stimulus package… and the morning after we forget. The crisis, whatever it was, is over, isn’t it? Surely, it’s time to move on.

Wall Street is praying that we forget how they broke open the Treasury vault to the tune of trillions in loan guarantees, subsidies and interest free money in addition to the more highly publicized TARP funds -- the largest transfer of wealth since African-American slaves built the South. It would be nice if we forgot about proposed wage caps on bankers. It would be nice if we stopped talking about ridiculous reforms and regulations that might prevent banker and hedge funds operators from walking off with hundreds of millions in private booty. Better to turn our attention to the auto industry. And maybe, if it all breaks just right, most of us might start to believe that the real problem all along was Detroit, rather than the wildest Wall Street casino ever created. It would be much better for the wealthy if we returned to one of our favorite pastimes: blaming autoworkers’ health care and pension benefits, or blasting big government for interfering in the economy.

Are we really going to forget? That depends on the severity of the crisis and it depends on our ability to understand it. Some see green shoots all around. (I would like to sell them the Brooklyn Bridge) I’m no soothsayer so I can’t tell you how long this crisis will last, or how much carnage it will cause, or even if the green shoots will be killed by all the financial toxic waste still polluting our economy. But I can help us remember its key characteristics: This crisis was the result of a total failure of financial markets. It wasn’t caused by consumers taking on too much debt, or a housing bubble, or uncompetitive industries. It was caused by financial markets run wild. It wasn’t caused by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac or big government. It was caused because our leaders believed free-markets could run on their own. Greenspan, Rubin, Bernanke and scores of others both on Wall Street and in government (or in the revolving doors between them) proclaimed that the free-market always knows best. It was ok if the elite gained riches once reserved for royalty. It was ok because their prowess and ingenuity drove our economy to new heights. They were the financial innovators of the world. It was far better for America to produce new financial instruments than to make solar energy or efficient cars.

They were dead wrong. Left to its own devices, the financial system crashed. We gave them every kind of deregulation they wanted and they drove the economy off a cliff.

Yet, it’s easier to blame average consumers who ran up too much debt on their credit cards or subprime borrowers who got in over their heads. In times of crisis, our complicit media likes to spread blame around. Columnist David Brooks suggests that the big unanswered question of the crash of 2008 is “how so many people could be so stupid, incompetent and self-destructive all at once.”But everyone is not to blame. Not this time. Financial free markets failed. Free-market ideology failed. Firms that are too big to fail, failed (while profiting all the way until they raided the Treasury.). Let’s hope our memories don’t fail as well.

PS. My editors tell me I should end on a more empowering, uplifting note. Here’s one: Turn the too-big-to-fail banks into publicly regulated utilities. That might prevent the next crash and might prove less taxing on our memories.

Les Leopold is the executive director of the Labor Institute and Public Health Institute in New York, and author of The Looting of America: How Wall Street's Game of Fantasy Finance Destroyed Our Jobs, Pensions, and Prosperity—and What We Can Do About It (Chelsea Green, 2009).
.
View this story online at: http://www.alternet.org/story/140123/

[Hugin]

50. Yep, they've been spraying the whitewash at record levels the last few months.

Mostly, putting the blame on those non-existent deadbeat consumers. Who just won't borrow from them anymore or who when they did defaulted because they're just so sub-prime... Unlike the Banksters who sailed through this crisis with nary a worry.

(:sarcasm: So, lambert can laugh too. ;) )

I'm taking names and numbers this time... :grr:

Hey, still no mention of the magically funded M&A fever of the last twenty years which I think had more to do with our troubles than any amount of mythical sub-prime mortgages. Those and deregulation are my big two.

[UpInArms]

16. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.255 Change -0.211 (-0.27%)

US Dollar Plummets as US Assets Lose 'Safe Haven' Luster, Japanese Yen Mixed Ahead of BOJ Announcement

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Plummets_as_US_1242941688241.html

The combination of the plunge in the US dollar and Treasuries, vast drops in FX carry trades, the equity markets, and oil, along with a jump in the CBOE’s VIX volatility index tells us one thing: the greenback and US assets in general may be losing their luster as “safe haven” assets. Following S&P’s downgrade of the UK’s economic outlook from “stable” to “negative” due to “deteriorating public finances,” there has been increased discussion of the same thing happening to the US as national debt levels soar in light of the government’s efforts to bail out Main Street and Wall Street. However, the Japanese yen did, to a certain degree, maintain its link with risk trends.

Meanwhile, the release of the US Labor Department’s jobless claims report reflects very little change in the employment outlook, as initial claims fell by 12,000 during the week ending May 16 to 631,000 while continuing claims jumped by 75,000 during the week ending May 16 to another record high of 6,662,000. Indeed, these moves suggest that while the pace of job losses, as reflected by non-farm payrolls (NFPs, will slow further, the unemployment rate is likely to continue climbing higher. This was something projected by the Federal Reserve during their April policy meeting, as the FOMC meeting minutes showed that the range of forecasts shifted from 8.0 percent - 9.2 percent up to 9.1 percent - 10 percent.

In more positive news, the Conference Board’s leading economic index jumped 1.0 percent in April, the first increase since June 2008 and the biggest increase since November 2005. The improvement was led by components such as average workweek, jobless claims, consumer goods orders, stock prices, interest rate spread, and consumer expectations. Also, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing activity index rose to -22.6 in May from -24.4, signaling a slower contraction.

Looking ahead to Friday, there will be very little in the way of US event risk ahead of Monday’s US Memorial Day holiday and market closure. That said, RSI on the daily charts of the DXY index has fallen into oversold territory, and when this happened in December 2008 and March 2009, we subsequently saw price bounce higher. As a result, there is potential for the greenback to stage a recovery versus the majors in the near-term, though it could ultimately be short-lived. For the Japanese yen, traders will see the release of the Bank of Japan’s rate decision, and they are widely anticipated to stay neutral at 0.10 percent. The thing to watch will be the BOJ’s economic outlook, as indications that the recession is nearing an end could offer a boost to FX carry trades overnight.

...more...

US Dollar Forecast to Lose Further versus Euro, Japanese Yen

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/US_Dollar_Forecast_to_Lose_1242914780040.html

EURUSD – Euro Forecast to Rally Further against US Dollar
GBPUSD – British Pound May Have Topped on Sentiment Shift
USDCHF – Swiss Franc Expected to Rally Further Versus US Dollar
USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Forecast Remains Bullish Against US Dollar
USDJPY – Japanese Yen Outlook Remains Positive on Forex Positioning



Historical Charts of Speculative Forex Trading Positioning


...more...

[tclambert]

17. US will lose AAA rating: Pimco

http://business.smh.com.au/business/us-will-lose-aaa-rating-pimco-20090522-bhtj.html


US will lose AAA rating: Pimco
May 22, 2009 - 1:02PM

Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, has warned the United States will eventually lose its top AAA credit rating, a fear that had already spooked financial markets on Thursday and could keep the US dollar, stocks and bonds under heavy selling pressure.

The United States will face a downgrade in "at least three to four years, if that, but the market will recognise the problems before the rating services - just like it did today," Gross said.
_______________________________

The headline is a little misleading. The article is much softer. It uses many more weasel words.

[Demeter]

20. Liddy to step down from AIG

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/04459458-4644-11de-803f-00144feabdc0.html

Edward Liddy, the government-appointed chairman and chief executive of AIG, is to leave the stricken insurer after only eight months in a move that will allow the Obama administration to choose its own leaders for the troubled group.

The AIG board, which is now controlled by government appointees, said it would split the role of chairman and chief executive and look at external and internal candidates for those positions.

Mr Liddy – a veteran insurance executive who was chosen by Hank Paulson, the Treasury secretary in the Bush administration last September – said on Thursday he would leave as soon as replacements for the two jobs were found....

[Demeter]

21. Ford hits out at German loan for GM unit

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4ab6cc5a-4639-11de-803f-00144feabdc0.html

Ford Motor on Thursday cried foul over Germany’s €1.5bn (£1.3bn) government-backed bridge financing for General Motors’ Opel arm, warning that it could tilt the playing field in favour of its struggling US competitor.

John Fleming, head of Ford’s European arm, also said he was “very concerned” about the French government’s €6.8bn loans to PSA Peugeot Citroën and Renault, and urged the European Union to “maintain proper oversight” of burgeoning national and pan-European aid plans for the car industry.

“Given this background of an apparent current lack of enforcement of EU state aid and internal market rules, it is imperative that any bridging loans that might be provided by the German government for Opel do not breach EU state aid or competition policy,” Mr Fleming said in an email sent to the Financial Times.

Ford’s complaint highlights the growing competitive tensions over automotive bail-outs around Europe, as governments from the UK to Russia step in to aid ailing automakers.

It comes as GM and the German government study offers from Fiat, Magna and RHJ International for a strategic stake in Opel/Vauxhall, which it plans to spin off with the help of €3.3bn of loan guarantees from Germany, the UK and other governments of countries where it has plants.

German officials this week said they had lined up €1.5bn of bridge loans to keep Opel afloat through a sale process expected to take several months.

EU commissioners Neelie Kroes, Günter Verheugen and Vladimir Spidla warned this month that any support by national governments to GM Europe would have to meet EU state aid and internal market rules.

Mr Fleming welcomed their statement, and said: “Ford believes it is vital that a level playing field is enforced to ensure a fair and equitable distribution of any assistance being offered, and that competition is not distorted.”

Ford’s stance in Europe contrasts with its position in the US, where it has welcomed bail-out loans for GM and Chrysler, and itself won access to an emergency credit line, which it says it will only use if its markets worsen. In Europe, Ford is the second best-selling carmaker – with car or engine plants in five EU countries and Russia – but is not seen as a “national champion”.

It risks being sidelined as governments tailor aid packages to their own producers.

NO COMMENT

[Demeter]

23. Global electricity use forecast to fall

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2965b43c-4632-11de-803f-00144feabdc0,s01=1.html

Global electricity consumption will fall this year for the first time since 1945, according to the International Energy Agency.

The watchdog for developed energy consuming countries will tell energy ministers from the Group of Eight leading economies on Sunday that electricity demand will fall 3.5 per cent in 2009.

In China, where power use is seen as a more reliable barometer of economic activity than official economic measures, consumption will be more than 2 per cent lower than 2008. Russia will see a fall of almost 10 per cent, while countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development will see a fall of almost 5 per cent.

Three-quarters of the global decline in consumption is accounted for by industrial rather than household demand, reflecting the fall in demand from China’s manufacturing-heavy economy. Consumption in India, by contrast, is expected to increase 1 per cent.

“This shows how deep a recession we are in,” said Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist. “Oil demand has declined in the past due to oil price shocks, financial crises – but electricity consumption has never decreased.”

In a report published last year, before the extent of the financial crisis was clear, the IEA forecast that electricity consumption would rise 32.5 per cent between 2006 and 2015. World electricity demand grew almost a quarter between 2000 and 2006. In 2007 it rose 4.7 per cent and in 2008, the year the crisis set in, it grew 2.5 per cent.

“It’s a good barometer of economic activity,” said David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff. “It’s very cyclical and often early.”

Global oil demand, which is more sensitive to consumer sentiment than electricity, has fallen several times since the second world war. The IEA this month forecast oil consumption would be 3 per cent lower in 2009 than 2008, the ninth consecutive lowering of its forecast for this year.

The agency will also tell ministers that its calculation of the stimulus spending required from G20 nations on renewable energy was inadequate and should rise by a factor of six if greenhouse gas emissions targets set by the United Nations were to be met.

The IEA will also warn that a fall in investment in oil production could lead to a supply squeeze in 2012. The agency said about 2m barrels per day in capacity were cancelled, and another 4.2m bpd were delayed by at least 18 months.

[Demeter]

24. Revival hopes push down dollar

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e533887e-4542-11de-b6c8-00144feabdc0.html

By Krishna Guha and Tom Braithwaite in Washington and Michael Mackenzie in New York


The US dollar fell to its lowest level of the year on Wednesday as Tim Geithner hailed signs of healing in financial markets and minutes showed the Federal Reserve had seen indications of economic stabilisation at its April policy meeting.

Traders said the decline in the US currency was associated with hopes of financial and economic recovery. Such expectations are encouraging investors to buy riskier assets and abandon risk-aversion strategies that favoured US Treasury bills.

Mr Geithner, US Treasury secretary, said there were “important indications that our financial system is starting to heal” – citing declining corporate bond yields and other market measures of financial stress.

The Fed released minutes that said “some signs pointing towards economic stabilisation were seen in data on consumer spending, housing and factory orders” – although the US central bank retained a cautious view on recovery, and increased its forecasts for unemployment.

An index measuring the strength of the dollar against six leading currencies closed at its lowest level of the year. The dollar’s retreat gathered pace after the Fed minutes showed some policymakers had raised the prospect that the central bank might extend its asset purchases to boost the recovery. Such purchases would be made by creating money.

As the dollar fell, oil gained nearly $2 to close above $62 a barrel – its highest level since November – while gold hit an eight-week high...

Mr Geithner, meanwhile, expressed concern that “a lot of banks” had withdrawn their applications for a government capital injection from the troubled assets relief programme.

Facing sometimes hostile questions at a Senate banking committee hearing, Mr Geithner said smaller banks felt the “capital is stigmatised with so many conditions that it will make it hard for them to run their business”.

“We need to try to counteract that because the insurance this capital provides is not valuable unless people are willing to come take it,” he said...

The Treasury is keen that thousands of smaller institutions use the fund to strengthen their capital base and, in turn, extend loans to businesses to kickstart the economy. Mr Geithner reiterated that the government lacked the powers to wind up a financial institution such as AIG, the insurer, although these would come as part of a broader regulatory overhaul.We have no option now to selectively diminish the value of those claims without taking risk,” said Mr Geithner. “I don’t believe that the system today can withstand the effects of a failure of this institution to meet its obligations. I wish it were not the case; nothing would make me happier.”

The House financial services committee starts hearings on financial regulation in June, including considering how to reform supervision of consumer products. One proposal is for an agency to regulate such products, people familiar with the ­proposals said. Such an agency, if created, would take on the responsibilities from the Fed and Securities and Exchange Commission...

[Demeter]

26. FSA bans long-lunch trader for two years

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e7494700-4544-11de-b6c8-00144feabdc0.html

A former Morgan Stanley trader who hid from his bosses a potential $10m loss on trades that were made under the influence of alcohol after a long lunch has been handed a two-year ban by London regulators.

David Redmond, a trader in the commodities team at Morgan Stanley, returned from a three-and-a-half hour lunch in February 2008 and put on a series of trades in the oil futures market that left the bank at risk of a $10m loss. He then concealed this position through further deals with a colleague’s accounts.

Mr Redmond in fact made a profit from the deals when he “traded out” and closed them the next day, but he was nonetheless sacked by his bank after they discovered his actions.

On Wednesday, the Financial Services Authority banned Mr Redmond for two years from working for any regulated firm. However, the FSA indicated it would consider approving him again after that point.

“Traders must not seek to conceal their positions from their firms,” said Margaret Cole, director of enforcement at the regulator. “Mr Redmond’s conduct showed a lack of honesty and integrity that falls short of the standards the FSA expects of approved persons.”

Between Mr Redmond’s return to his desk just before 5pm and 7.30pm, his deals left him net short 5,395 lots of the futures contracts – equivalent to 30 per cent of the UK market in that particular contract, but only about 4 per cent of the overall market. His position did not move prices.

Mr Redmond, now 28, was well-regarded in his team and was thought to have a promising future.

The FSA said Mr Redmond had expressed remorse, admitted his actions and co-operated with the FSA investigation. It said Mr Redmond drank alcohol over lunch and it appeared that this affected his behaviour, although he “was not visibly drunk”.

Mr Redmond’s deals were discovered by Morgan Stanley officials who noticed the unusual activity that night and began investigating the next day. When questioned, he admitted his actions.

Morgan Stanley said: “As the FSA states in their announcement, Morgan Stanley promptly identified and investigated the issue and took swift action against Mr Redmond. He was suspended by the firm and subsequently dismissed.”

Mr Redmond could not be reached for comment.

I HOPE HE WAS PAID ON COMMMISSION.

[Hugin]

51. Oh, ho! It's the old 'drunken rogue trader ploy'!

Couldn't possibly be standard practice there at Morgan-Stanley to bang the oil futures market... No way! ( :sarcasm: )

It was all a big misunderstanding and an expendable rogue drunken trader. He did it ALL! Bad trader! Bad trader!

And... The BS continues. :eyes:

As for the 'drunken trader'... Well, he's young and I've heard there's a new Phd program down at MickeyD U.

[Pale Blue Dot]

27. Rare (and ignored) Thursday Night Bank Failure

BankUnited Fails in Florida, Marking Biggest Collapse of 2009

WASHINGTON -- Federal regulators seized the troubled Florida thrift BankUnited FSB on Thursday, a failure the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. estimates will cost its insurance fund $4.9 billion.

BankUnited is the second costliest bank failure of the recent banking crisis, trumped only by IndyMac, which officials believe will cost the FDIC close to $11 billion.

BankUnited had $12.8 billion of assets and $8.6 billion in deposits.

Regulators said BankUnited was critically undercapitalized. The FDIC sold the banking operations to a management team headed by John Kanas, the former head of North Fork Bank.

The bank's 85 branches will reopen Friday during normal business hours. Mr. Kanas's team will acquire $12.7 billion of BankUnited's assets and $8.3 billion in nonbrokered deposits.

The FDIC and the new bank agreed to share future losses on roughly $10.7 billion in assets under the agreement. The new management also agreed to recapitalize the bank with $900 million in new money.

Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124294168567644901.html

I would not be surprised to see several more tonight.

[nc4bo]

28. They'll have a nice long weekend (carpet) to hide the dirt piles under.

Must keep the bad news on the DL, YES WE CAN!

[AnneD]

45. Look over there..is it a kidnapped white woman.....

no, it's some fundamentalist Christian parents not buying their child expensive medical treatment from the best medical system in the world. Sic em.

Do I really need to add this with this group? Just in case :sarcasm:

[Robbien]

59. Parent of BankUnited had assets of $37.7 million and total debts of $559.7 million

It is in bankruptcy court, and there's a fight going on

BankUnited seizure spurs fight within former parent firm
BankUnited founder Alfred Camner angled for position Friday after the thrift's parent company filed for bankruptcy protection.
BY MARTHA BRANNIGAN
[e-mail]

BankUnited reopened for business as usual Friday morning after federal regulators seized the thrift and sold it to new investors.

But an acrimonious battle erupted between founder Alfred Camner and the board of the former parent company, BankUnited Financial Corp., at a shareholder meeting Friday morning.

Camner wants to say who will be the bankruptcy counsel for the corporation and to name his own slate of directors.

The jockeying for position appears to be aimed at getting the best spot to pick over the carcass of BankUnited Financial after its main business, BankUnited, was sold Thursday to a group of private equity firms led by New York banker John Kanas.

BankUnited Financial filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the federal bankruptcy code Thursday, listing total assets of $37.7 million and total debts of $559.7 million.

That means there isn't much to go around, and the shareholders are wiped out.

Still, Camner, the largest shareholder with about 45 percent, was angling to protect his interests at the shareholder meeting at the Coral Gables Hyatt Regency.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/breaking-news/story/1061234.html


A bunch of cronyism and stealth going on in the business of the parent's bankruptcy.

Ha, someone at the meeting even asked if there was fraud involved.

[Demeter]

29. Blast from the Past

The convention which framed the Constitution of the United States was composed of fifty-five members. A majority were lawyers-not one farmer, mechanic or laborer. Forty ownedRevolutionary Scrip. Fourteen were land speculators. Twenty-four were money-lenders. Eleven were merchants. Fifteen were slave-holders. They made a Constitution to protect the rights of property and not the rights of man.

Senator Richard Pettigrew - Triumphant Plutocracy (1922)


" I see in the near future a crisis approaching that unnerves me and causes me
to tremble for the safety of my country. As a result of war, corporations have
been enthroned, and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the
money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon
the prejudices of the people until all the wealth is aggregated in a few hands
and the republic is destroyed. I feel, at this moment, more anxiety for the
safety of my country than ever before, even in the midst of war. God grant that my suspicions may prove groundless."

Lincoln in a letter to Col. William F. Elkins on November 21, 1864


This great and powerful force-the accumulated wealth of the United States-has
taken over all the functions of Government, Congress, the issue of money, and
banking and the army and navy in order to have a band of mercenaries to do their bidding and protect their stolen property.

Senator Richard Pettigrew- Triumphant Plutocracy - Published, January 1, 1922.

Money becomes evil not when it is used to buy goods but when it is used to buy
power... economic inequalities become evil when they are translated into
political inequalities.

Samuel Huntington - Political Scientist

[nc4bo]

35. Chilling predictions that were ignored then and look what we've become now.

The Unites States of Corporations.

Lincoln accurately called it. "...As a result of war, corporations have
been enthroned, and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the
money power of the country will endeavor to prolong its reign by working upon
the prejudices of the people until all the wealth is aggregated in a few hands
and the republic is destroyed."

Although "...Under the excuse of war" instead of "As a result of war" would seem just a bit more accurate.

[1955doubledie]

70. Makes you kind of wonder who John Wilkes Booth was really working for

I'm kinda late in the conversation, but I hadn't read Lincoln's quote until now, and it's a real eye-opener.

Lincoln was killed not long after that, of course, and then Johnson was kept very much in check by the "radical Republicans" in congress ("radical," I suppose in the same sense that the 1994 Republicans and their Contract on America was radical).

Once Johnson was out of the way, the floodgates opened to rampant corruption, with Grant serving the grafters well as their puppet. It was the beginning of the Gilded Age...whose legacy still lingers even now, in the 21st Century.

[DemReadingDU]

31. Lifestyle Liquidation - Estates of the Fabulously Rich

5/22/09 Found on Shedlock's blog...

Lifestyle Liquidation - Estates of the Fabulously Rich

It's not easy to go minimalist when you owe far more on your toys than anyone is willing to pay for them. Please consider Estates of the Fabulously Rich, Gilded Era Is Going, Going, Gone.

VERO BEACH, Fla. -- Richard and Amanda Peacock spent five years building their dream home, a 10,000-square-foot, orange mansion overlooking the ocean here. They filled it with leopard-skin chairs, pinball machines, antique Coca-Cola signs and six sports cars. It had a room full of 100 hunting trophies -- including a hyena and the head of an elephant -- and an aviary out back housing eight rare parrots.

On a recent Saturday, they held a one-day auction to try to sell it all.

"Four million, do I hear four and a half?" shouted auctioneer Dean Kruse, as he took bids for the mansion. "Come on, people -- the good Lord stopped making oceanfront property a long time ago."

Frank Burden, a local landscaper, picked up Mr. Peacock's Pennzoil sign for $75. Bidding on the scarlet Ferrari, with only 5,000 miles, reached $110,000, a steal compared with its $207,000 purchase price. Marie Davis, a Florida vacationer, picked up several exotic hunting trophies.

"I got a wildebeest for $250!" she said. "What a deal."

Mr. Peacock's auction marked a new moment in the fall of the latest Gilded Age. Fire-sale auctions of mansions, yachts, sports cars and other trappings of wealth have become increasingly common as the rich become less rich. But Mr. Peacock is in the vanguard in attempting to downsize in just one day. The event was less an auction than a lifestyle liquidation, a clearance sale on a decade's worth of conspicuous consumption.

Mr. Peacock's selloff is among the most unusual. A 60-year-old commercial real-estate developer with a mustache and a dark tan, he built his fortune building and owning retail space in Miami's Coconut Grove area.

They bought a piece of oceanfront property for $4 million and spent the next four years, and another $4 million, building the mansion. It has six bedrooms, seven-and-a-half baths, a gym and a barbershop and salon. Outside there's a waterfall, tiki bar and aviary. The couple designed much of the furniture themselves, including the gold and leopard-skin dining-room chairs.

"Richard likes leopard skin, and I like gold, so it was the perfect match," says Mrs. Peacock.

The sprawling "trophy/game room" is stocked with dozens of antique road signs, life-size statues of Muhammad Ali and Green Bay Packers quarterback Bart Starr, antique gas pumps and a cigar-store Indian. Stuffed hunting trophies spill throughout the house, including the fang-baring baboon in the guest room. Mr. Peacock says he doesn't hunt.

Their fortunes began to turn last fall. Mr. Peacock was diagnosed with cancer. His commercial real-estate business, with 30,000 square feet of retail space in Miami, is facing rising vacancies. He also had to shut down his Vero Beach construction company, which was working on residential projects.

The couple now has a $2.2 million mortgage on their mansion, Mr. Peacock says, and a $1 million mortgage on a four-bedroom oceanfront home nearby that they used while building the mansion. Maintaining the house is also costly: $50,000 a year in taxes, $25,000 for insurance and more than $100,000 a year for indoor and outdoor maintenance. That's not to mention the upkeep on their other home.

Mr. Peacock says he is now cancer-free. He says it was the health scare, not financial problems, that inspired him to scale back.

"We don't need all this stuff anymore," he says, adding that the couple plans to buy a cabin in the Blue Mountains. "It's time to simplify."

On the morning of Mr. Peacock's auction, more than 100 bargain-hunters flocked to the auction tent along with dozens more bidding live online. The bids started strong, with the metal signs and animals selling. An online bidder bought the elephant head for $6,750. A bright yellow Honda motorcycle went for $9,500, and a 2003 Country Motor Coach fetched $150,000 -- far less than the $600,000 Mr. Peacock paid for it or the $200,000 he owes on it.

When the six cars came on the block, however, the sale stalled. Only one -- a cloned 1970 Plymouth Hemi Cuda convertible -- reached Mr. Peacock's asking price. The Peacocks didn't accept the bids on the others, including the Ferrari. An Italian speedboat and a pair of jet skis also failed to sell.

Bids on the house ground to a halt at $5.5 million. The Peacocks decided they couldn't let it go for that. Since they didn't want to live in an empty mansion, they pulled the other items, including the parrots, off the block.

In all, 500 items sold for about $300,000. About $200,000 went to pay the auctioneer and other expenses. Both houses are still on the market.

"Nobody's spending money right now," said Mr. Peacock, sitting under the tent with his head buried in his hands. "I guess we'll try to just keep hanging on."

Auction a Spectacular Failure

Fittingly, the auction was a spectacular failure. The WSJ article mentioned two other auction failures if I can take the liberty of calling the sale of a $13 million estate for $3.5 million a failure.

Mr. Peacock has more toys than he needs or can afford. Amazingly, he had a bid of $5.5 million for the house and only owed $2.2 million on it. That was enough to pay off his other oceanfront house and still have $2 million left over.

By attempting to "hang on" the Peacocks risk losing it all. I suspect he will. In the meantime how the heck can he possibly get by without that wildebeest head?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/05/lifestyle-liquidation-estates-of.html

link to article
5/19/09 At Estates of the Fabulously Rich, Gilded Era Is Going, Going, Gone
Mr. Peacock Offers It All in a 1-Day Auction: Mansions, a Ferrari, the Head of an Elephant
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124268209889631903.html

[Demeter]

33. Credit Where Credit is Due By Mike Whitney

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article22667.htm

May 20, 2009 "Information Clearing House" -- The financial channels are abuzz with talk of a recovery, but we're not out of the woods yet. In fact, the deceleration in the rate of economic decline is not a sign of recovery at all, but proof that the economy is resetting at a lower level of activity. That means the recession will drag on for some time no matter what the Fed does. The problem is the breakdown in the securitzation markets which has cut off the flow of easy credit to consumers and businesses. The credit-freeze has caused a sharp drop in retail, auto sales, furniture, electronics, travel, global trade etc. Every sector has been hammered. Fed chief Ben Bernanke's lending facilities have helped to steady the financial system and Obama's fiscal stimulus will take up some of the slack in demand, but these are not a cure-all for a broken credit system. If the system isn't fixed, asset prices will continue to plunge and hundreds of financial institutions will face bankruptcy.

From Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge:

"In order to fully understand currency and price movements, one has to realize that the securitization of debt, and creation of derivatives amounted to a huge virtual printing press, primarily fueled by a massive increase in risk appetite which allowed for a huge expansion in the value of claims on financial assets and goods and services. It is worth pointing out, that the Fed has little to no control over this "printing press" at this point, which at last count was responsible for over 90% of the liquidity in the system." ("The Exuberance Glut or the Dollar-Euro Short Squeeze Race" Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge)

The faux-prosperity of the last decade was largely the result of a wholesale credit system which created a humongous amount of credit via sketchy debt instruments, off-balance sheet operations, massive leverage and derivatives. (The Fed's liquidity and conventional bank loans play a very small part in the modern credit system) Securitization--which is the conversion of pools of loans into securities--is at the center of the storm. It formed the asset-base upon which the investment banks and hedge funds stacked additional leverage creating an unstable debt-pyramid that couldn't withstand the battering of a slumping market. After two Bear Stearns funds defaulted 20 months ago, the securitization markets froze, credit dried up and the broader economy went into a tailspin. Now that investors know how risky securitized instruments really are, there's little chance that assets will regain their original value or that the market for structured debt will stage a comeback.

Bernanke's Term Asset-backed Loan Facility (TALF) is a attempt to restore the crashed system by offering participants generous government funding to purchase securities backed by mortgages, student loans, auto loans and credit card debt. But skittish investors have stayed on the sidelines. The severity of the downturn has dampened the appetite for risk. So Bernanke has cranked up the money supply, cut interest rates to zero and flooded the financial system with liquidity. His actions have convinced many of the experts that the country is on the fast-track to hyperinflation, but that may not be the case, as explained in the Hoisington Investment Management's Quarterly Economic Review:

"Despite near term deflation risks, the overwhelming consensus view is that “sooner or later” inflation will inevitably return, probably with great momentum.

This inflationist view of the world seems to rely on two general propositions. First, the unprecedented increases in the Fed’s balance sheet are, by definition, inflationary. The Fed has to print money to restore health to the economy, but ultimately this process will result in a substantially higher general price level. Second, an unparalleled surge in federal government spending and massive deficits will stimulate economic activity. This will serve to reinforce the reflationary efforts of the Fed and lead to inflation.

(But) let’s assume for the moment that inflation rises immediately. With unemployment widespread, wages would seriously lag inflation. Thus, real household income would decline and truncate any potential gain in consumer spending...

Inflation will not commence until the Aggregate Demand (AD) Curve shifts outward sufficiently to reach the part of the Aggregate Supply (AS) curve that is upward sloping.....Therefore, multiple outward shifts in the Aggregate Demand curve will be required before the economy encounters an upward sloping Aggregate Supply Curve thus creating higher price levels. In our opinion such a process will take well over a decade....

The statement that all the Fed has to do is print money in order to restore prosperity is not substantiated by history or theory. An increase in the stock of money will only lead to a higher GDP if V, or velocity, is stable. V should be thought of conceptually rather than mechanically. If the stock of money is $1 trillion and total spending is $2 trillion, then V is 2. If spending rises to $3 trillion and M2 is unchanged, velocity then jumps to 3.

... The historical record indicates that V may be likened to a symbiotic relationship of two variables. One is financial innovation and the other is the degree of leverage in the economy. Financial innovation and greater leverage go hand in hand, and during those times velocity is generally above its long-term average.

As the shadow banking system continues to collapse, velocity should move well below its mean, greatly impairing the efficacy of monetary policy...The problem for the Fed is that it does not control velocity or the money created outside the banking system. "( Hoisington Investment Management Quarterly review, thanks to Leo Kolivakis, of Pension Pulse, "Is Inflation inevitable?")

Bernanke can print as much money as he wants, but if the banks are hoarding, consumers are saving, businesses are cutting back, and all the money-multipliers are set to "Off"; there will be no inflation. Demand has to pick up, so that money begins to change hands quickly leading to vast amounts of new money competing for the same number of assets. But that won't happen while the economy is shedding 600,000 jobs a month, housing prices are tumbling and consumer balance sheets are being repaired.

So if inflation is not an immediate risk, and the economy continues to shrink, isn't Bernanke doing the right thing by trying to restart the securitization markets?

Opinions vary on this topic. On the one hand, Wall Street's method of deploying credit appears to be more efficient than conventional (bank) loans because the money is provided by investors who are looking for higher yield rather than bankers tapping into reserves. The problem is that securitization creates incentives for fraud by rewarding loan originators who lend to applicants who have no way of repaying the debt. Unless the system is heavily regulated to insure that traditional lending standards are maintained, speculative bubbles will reemerge and there will be more financial disasters in the future. The former head of the FDIC, William Seidman, anticipated this problem way back in 1993 after cleaning up the S&L crisis. Here's what he said in his memoirs:

“Instruct regulators to look for the newest fad in the industry and examine it with great care. The next mistake will be a new way to make a loan that will not be repaid.” (Bloomberg)

If regulators had heeded Seidman's advice, they could have steered the country away from the present calamity.

The problem with an unregulated credit system is that investment banks and hedge funds can skim lavish salaries and bonuses for themselves on the front end before anyone discovers that the loans are fraudulent and the securities worthless. Even so, neither congress nor the Treasury nor the Fed have taken steps to re-regulate the financial system or to hold any of the main players accountable. It's "anything goes". Bernanke has acted as Wall Street's chief enabler by underwriting shoddy non performing loans, propping up rotten assets with low interest funding, and bailing out investment giants with trillions in taxpayer-backed loans. None of the $12.8 trillion Bernanke has loaned or committed to financial institutions has been approved by Congress. The Fed operates beyond any mandate and outside of any law.

The debate about securitization goes beyond questions about the quality of the underlying loans to focusing on the process itself. Securitization greatly amplifies leverage by repackaging debt into complex instruments. It's a way of turbo-charging credit expansion. Joseph Stroupe summarizes the issue in a recent Asia Times article:

"Remember that there are two fundamental camps with respect to the answer to the question of what lies at the root of the present crisis. One camp holds that America's new generation of financial assets that resulted from the recently invented financial process known as "securitization" are fundamentally sound in value, and that an over-reaction on the part of investors to the subprime crisis has resulted in a panic-induced collapse in their valuations.

This camp believes that the securitization model can and should be revived, and that when investor confidence is restored in financial assets now seen as "toxic", then all will be well again, almost magically, as toxic assets become valuable and attractive once again. All that need be done, it is believed, is for the government to work with Wall Street to jump-start securitization, a model this camp vehemently denies has failed, even though many trillions of dollars both spent and committed already have so far failed to get securitization's heartbeat going again.

The other camp believes that the toxicity is inherent in the very nature of the newly developed financial assets themselves, and that once investors recognized this fact, then that is why their values collapsed. This camp sees the securitization model as fundamentally flawed, based as it is upon artificial inflation of assets, the shortsighted growth of serial asset bubbles created by an unholy de facto alliance of government, big Wall Street banks and credit-rating agencies whose credibility and integrity were profoundly compromised, and unsustainable negative real interest rates (the creation of a massive credit excess), without which the securitization model simply won't run. (Asia Times, Profits Mask the Coming Storm, W. Joseph Stroupe)

Bernanke says that the securitization markets are "frozen" and that the toxic assets should eventually regain much of their original value. But this is just wishful thinking. Investors aren't shunning these assets because they're afraid, but because the banks want too much for them given their implicit riskiness. Stroupe's analysis is closer to the truth; prices have collapsed because investors recognize the inherent toxicity of the assets themselves. The market isn't driven by fear, but by common sense. $.30 cents on the dollar is probably all they are worth.

PUTTING CREDIT BACK WHERE IT BELONGS

Do people realize that the reason their home equity is vanishing, their 401ks have been slashed in half and their jobs are at risk is because Wall Street was gaming the system with leverage and financial innovation? The current downturn is not really a recession at all; it's more like a self-inflicted wound perpetrated by avaricious speculators who put a gun to the economy's head and blew its brains out. The banks and Wall Street have created a capital hole so vast that the entire economy is being sucked into the abyss. And it all could have been avoided.

Credit production is too important and too lethal to entrust to profit-driven vipers whose only motivation is self-enrichment. The whole system needs rethinking and public input before Bernanke wastes trillions more trying to revive the same crisis-prone business model. If "credit is the economy's life's-blood," as President Obama says, then it should be distributed through a government-controlled public utility. The real lesson of the financial crisis is that privatizing credit has been a disaster.

[amandabeech]

71. RIP Bill Seidman.

I hope that he comes back to haunt Geither et al.

[Demeter]

36. "Black Swan" Singing Our Song

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3zZ6qNWeGw

[Demeter]

37. U.S. Economy: The Cancer is Still There By Glen Ford

http://www.blackagendareport.com/?q=content/us-economy-cancer-still-there


May 19, 2009 "BAR" --- “Obama will be remembered more for his massive transfers of national wealth to the finance capitalist class, than as the first Black president of the United States.”

How does one restore the Lords of Capital to their former positions as dictators of the U.S. and global economies, while keeping their seats warm as de facto political rulers of the American state? Saving the finance capital oligarchy has emerged as President Obama’s central mission – the guiding focus of his young administration. Obama has found new and myriad ways to go where no American president has ever gone before, in funneling somewhere around $13 trillion of national treasure to the parasitical class that goes by the shorthand, Wall Street.

By March of this year, the federal government and the Federal Reserve had “spent, lent or committed” $12.8 trillion to the banksters, according to the Bloomberg financial news service. That amounts to 90 percent of the Gross Domestic Product of the entire United States economy for last year. Let us put it another way: Mostly under the auspices of Barack Obama’s administration, the value of nearly every good and service produced in the United States in 2008 has been, in one way or another, put at the disposal of a tiny financial oligarchy.

This is the kind of overarching reality that defines, not just presidencies, but eras. In the cold assessment of history, Barack Obama will be remembered more for his massive transfers of national wealth to the finance capitalist class, than as the first Black president of the United States.

President Obama has chosen to use the limited resources of the current and future United States – $13 trillion so far – to prop up a criminal class.

The primary beneficiaries of this history-shaking generosity are the same banksters that brought about the economic meltdown through their monstrous invention, the derivative. This fictitious capital – derivatives – created to facilitate gambling on a scale that far exceeds the productive capacity of the entire planet Earth, is a cancer that Barack Obama has chosen to feed, rather than cut out. As F. William Engdahl points out in a recent article, five U.S. banks are the biggest repositories of toxic derivatives: JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citibank, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo-Wachovia Bank. Together, these five Banksters of the Apocalypse hold derivatives with the notional value of $193 trillion. That is more than three times the value of the real economy of the whole world – which is about $60 trillion.

These deadly derivatives continue to sit there, immovable, in these five fatally stricken institutions. There are not enough trillions existent in the national or world economies to absorb these fatal instruments. There is nothing rational to do but to wipe the obligations, and their holders, off the face of the Earth, in order to save the real economy. Instead of feeding the cancer, a rational government would use the people’s wealth to create public institutions to dispense credit and guide economic development. The bankster gamblers would be consigned to the dustbin of history – and good riddance. But President Obama has chosen to use the limited resources of the current and future United States – $13 trillion so far – to prop up a criminal class. All the manufactured hoopla about stock market rallies and phony stress tests is intended to mask the central truth of our time: the derivatives cancer will eat away at the real economy until the class that spawned it is cut away, and flushed out of existence.

BAR executive editor Glen Ford can be contacted at [e-mail].

[rfranklin]

39. I really enjoyed Glen in "The Blackboard Jungle"

There was one called "The Gazebo" where I think he buried his wife in the back yard. Liked that one too.

[Demeter]

38. When Does Obama Get His "Reality Check"?

I think it started with the Guantanamo closing money. Congress could not in good conscience fork over dollars without some idea of what they were buying--again.

Perhaps the voters are too unsophisticated to protest the bailout (but we did, and loudly) that Bush-Paulson rammed down our throats and Obama-Geithner continues--or perhaps voters are too poor and distracted by their personal finances to pay much attention to national finances. Perhaps decades of dumping on Detroit and the Big 3 desensitized voters to what a mass bankruptcy of American auto business implies.

But the thought that these demons from the 3rd world (as Cheney has portrayed them for years) might be coming to a prison near you flipped a few national circuit breakers. Granted, it was the paranoid xenophobic conspiracy TERRA circuit breaker, amply aided by the GOP noise machine, but it happened.

Now, if there was economic functionality, this couldn't have blown up like it did. The question is, how to change the course of history into a saner, more livable path? Alternatively, where are the economic circuit breakers? A general strike, perhaps?

Guantanamo, unfortunately, isn't going to help. But it might slow down the juggernaut.

[Tansy_Gold]

40. Guantanamo is totally irrelevant. Totally

Let me tell you a story. True incident from, let's see, last Tuesday. 19 May 2009. Just about 12:00 noon, give or take 15 minutes.


I go into the Fry's grocery store (part of the Kroger chain) here in Apache Junction, Arizona. As I walk in, an alarm starts going off. Like a fire alarm maybe. Not really loud, but kind of annoying. But no one is doing anything. Not customers. Not store staff. No one. No one is paying attention.

It continues to sound for the entire 20 minutes I was in the store, picking up some ice cream, some Wheat Thins, som gatorade.

When I approached the checkstand, one of the lower-level managers was chatting with the cashier. None of the three customers ahead of me had said anything about the alarm. Not one word. But now the LLM said to the cashier, "Somebody ought to be back from lunch pretty soon." The cashier said, "Oh, okay. Did they call anyone on their cell phone?" To which the LLM answered, "No, I don't think anyone thought of that."

The cashier then began ringing up my purchases and said to me, "It's the back door. Someone opened it and set off the alarm and we don't have anyone in the store at the moment who has the code to shut it off. They all went to lunch."

Now, it's a stupid story, but the point is, NO ONE GOT PANICKY. If everyone is one the edge of panic in fear of another terra attack or invasion by drug-crazed immigrants or whatever, wouldn't AN ALARM IN A GROCERY STORE -- hell, coulda been a fire or something -- at least cause people to take notice?

The truth is, we aren't afraid. We're complacent. We're numb. We don't care, and maybe that's because we no longer have anything to care about.


Tansy Gold, in AJ where it's raining

[DemReadingDU]

42. People seem to care most, when what they care about, is gone.

It's sad that most people take so much for granted.

[nc4bo]

43. Maybe that's the plan all along, for us to just not care anymore.

Like The Matrix movie.

We could always have wholesale rebellions but we're just too n(d)umbed down to care.

The corrupted are free to pull off even greater extravagant outrages at their whim. We're so busy trying to put a nut on our own tables that we just don't care what happens to those outside our personal bubbles.

Come to think of it, we're not just n(d)umbed down, we're a selfish lot. As long as some <insert legitimate outrage> doesn't affect us personally then everything's peachy and the affected are SOOL. It's your fault for not having your own <insert whatever need>. Of course some stranger's hardship has nothing to do with the rotting core of corruption running free in this country.

Perfect for them and so far this administration has also been "perfect for them" on some very critical issues.

Anyway, Memorial Day weekend is the kick off for the summer vacation season, woohoo. This is THE most important thing that should concern us right now, that and if rain is forecasted to ruin the Big Day. So, will it be ribs, burgers or chicken? :sarcasm:

sigh.

edit Subj for sense.

[Tansy_Gold]

46. I suspect my neighbor is a RW nutcase in many respects

I usually don't have much opportunity to chat with her at length, but I did a couple days ago. She is in her early 70s, retired with a comfortable but not lavish income.

She was complaining the other day about this new plan for the credit card companies that would give deadbeats a break and force her to pay an annual fee even though she never carries a balance. When I pointed out that there are millions and millions and millions of people being savagely abused by teh credit card companies, that it's not just the high interest rates but the penalties and fees, that the credit card companies already rake in bazillions from the merchants who are virtually obligated to take credit and debit card if they want to do business any more -- it went in one of her ears and right straight out the other.

If the people on teh Channel 3 news don't talk about it, it isn't happening. Oh, some woman accidentally paid $5,000.00 on her credit card bill instead of $500.00 by paying online and when she discovered the mistake she wanted the credit card company to refund the overpayment. They refused. What message did this send to my friend? BE AFRAID OF COMPUTERS. I said it was far more likely that the woman didn't pay attention to what she was doing. I pay almsot all my bills online. They always give you MANY opportunities to make sure you've paid the right amount AND they give you several hours or even days to make double sure. Plus you get an instant receipt and don't have to wait and worry that some kid has stolen your check out of the mailbox or it's gone to the wrong address or been just lost in the process.

Her response? "Well all I know is they're forcing me to buy a computer and I can't afford it and it's just another excuse to steal my money."

Now understand that when she's talking about the deadbeats, she's talking about personal responsibility. But when someone overpays a bill and wants a refund, then the whole concept of personal responsiblity vanishes. Now it's the credit card company's fault for not realizing the woman didn't really want to pay that much!

But then I told her that I went to pay my local property taxes a few weeks ago, and I figured there was probably a way to pay them online so I didn't have to mail a check and worry about it not getting down to Florence. But when I went to the Pinal County website to pay those taxes, I discovered that the county has a contract with some outfit to collect online payments and that outfit charges $19.75 for the privilege! So I wrote a check and stuck it in the mail.

the point of all this is that we have indeed become a dumbed down nation. A nation of zombies in many respect. We go about our shopping totally oblivious to the alarms going off around us. We swallow everything we see on the tv news as gospel. And we complain and complain and complain but we actually DO nothing.

I have to get back to work. Doing something.



TG

[tclambert]

63. Reminds me of the beginning of "Shawn of the Dead."

The people already behaved like zombies. It took a good long while for Shawn to notice they had turned. And when Ed changed, he didn't change that much. He still spent his time sitting on his butt playing video games.

Did you remember to pick up the sugar-frosted thorazine flakes?

[TheWatcher]

68. Perfect Crystalizing Post describing the herd, Tansy.

We ARE numb.

And this is the perfect weekend to observe just how much.

All over the country, the disaffected, unaffected, disinterested, incurious, dumbed down, zombified hordes will be scurrying around to set themselves up for their long weekend numbfest of gobbling grilled food, swilling beer, chest-beating for the playoffs, and zoning out to their favorite junk culture distractions, completely and comfortably insulated and living large (in their minds, of course), totally oblivious to ANY reality around them, and confident that only Super Cops like Mark Harmon and the NCIS Gang can save them with quick trigger fingers and childlike dialogue if there is trouble.

Meanwhile, on Memorial Day, our troops will STILL be mired in two quagmires, in the line of fire, some wounded, some dying, for absolutely no reason at all while the hedonistic, gurgling sheep wallow in happiness in their servitude they call a "Democracy".

Like I said down thread:

We Are WORSE Than Rome.

America.

What A Fucking Joke.

:banghead:

[Festivito]

41. Debt: 05/20/2009 11,285,462,042,449.61 (DOWN 7,893,568,808.90) (Up little, mostly FICA.)

(It's a lull in the US debt weekdays. If true to form, we'd see a rise come 3PM on Friday showing Thursday's report. Will see. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,982,626,272,295.82 + 4,302,835,770,153.79
UP 422,183,214.17 + DOWN 8,315,752,023.07

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.79, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,387,515 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $36,833.95.
A family of three owes $110,501.85. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,367,251,100.77.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,202,650,807.23.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 83 reports in 120 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.05B$ per report, 0.05B$/day so far.
There were 158 reports in 232 days of FY2009 averaging 7.98B$ per report, 5.43B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,341 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 18.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/20/2009 11,285,462,042,449.61 BHO (UP 658,584,993,536.53 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,260,737,145,537.20 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/29/2009 -034,727,762,120.64 -
04/30/2009 +079,347,503,951.43 ------------**********
05/01/2009 -003,202,605,992.57 --
05/04/2009 +000,068,750,275.89 ------------******* Mon
05/05/2009 +000,122,936,524.80 ------------********
05/06/2009 -000,058,764,073.21 ----
05/07/2009 +027,679,213,817.18 ------------**********
05/08/2009 -000,216,334,016.92 ---
05/11/2009 -000,029,759,155.68 ---- Mon
05/13/2009 -000,207,515,478.68 ---
05/14/2009 +013,927,016,419.76 ------------**********
05/15/2009 +013,064,365,189.63 ------------**********
05/18/2009 -000,012,816,531.74 ---- Mon
05/19/2009 +000,244,659,127.63 ------------********
05/20/2009 +000,422,183,214.17 ------------********

96,421,071,151.05 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,620,830,239,190.54 in last 244 days.
That's 1,621B$ in 244 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 159% of that highest year ever only in 244 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 244 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3886969&mesg_id=3887184

[Festivito]

56. Debt: 05/21/2009 11,305,673,498,034.18 (UP 20,211,455,584.57) (Debt up.)

(The weekday lull fulfilled, the Friday dump comes back with a medium sized rise. Not even worth hiding. A wonderful Memorial day weekend all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,999,368,863,588.18 + 4,306,304,634,446.00
UP 16,742,591,292.36 + UP 3,468,864,292.21

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.79, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,393,686 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $36,899.17.
A family of three owes $110,697.52. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,100,634,347.92.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,740,465,188.47.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 84 reports in 121 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.03B$ per report, 0.12B$/day so far.
There were 159 reports in 233 days of FY2009 averaging 8.06B$ per report, 5.50B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,340 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 18.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/21/2009 11,305,673,498,034.18 BHO (UP 678,796,449,121.10 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,280,948,601,121.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/30/2009 +079,347,503,951.43 ------------**********
05/01/2009 -003,202,605,992.57 --
05/04/2009 +000,068,750,275.89 ------------******* Mon
05/05/2009 +000,122,936,524.80 ------------********
05/06/2009 -000,058,764,073.21 ----
05/07/2009 +027,679,213,817.18 ------------**********
05/08/2009 -000,216,334,016.92 ---
05/11/2009 -000,029,759,155.68 ---- Mon
05/13/2009 -000,207,515,478.68 ---
05/14/2009 +013,927,016,419.76 ------------**********
05/15/2009 +013,064,365,189.63 ------------**********
05/18/2009 -000,012,816,531.74 ---- Mon
05/19/2009 +000,244,659,127.63 ------------********
05/20/2009 +000,422,183,214.17 ------------********
05/21/2009 +016,742,591,292.36 ------------**********

147,891,424,564.05 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,641,041,694,775.11 in last 245 days.
That's 1,641B$ in 245 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 161% of that highest year ever only in 245 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 245 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3888866&mesg_id=3889020

[Festivito]

75. Debt: 05/21/2009 11,305,673,498,034.18 (UP 20,211,455,584.57) (Debt up.)

(The weekday lull fulfilled, the Friday dump comes back with a medium sized rise. Not even worth hiding. Hope everyone had a wonderful Memorial day weekend. Slight test today.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,999,368,863,588.18 + 4,306,304,634,446.00
UP 16,742,591,292.36 + UP 3,468,864,292.21

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.79, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 306,393,686 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 01/22/2009 22:18 -> 305,660,649
Currently, each of these Americans owe $36,899.17.
A family of three owes $110,697.52. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,100,634,347.92.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,740,465,188.47.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 84 reports in 121 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.03B$ per report, 0.12B$/day so far.
There were 159 reports in 233 days of FY2009 averaging 8.06B$ per report, 5.50B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,340 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.1 and 18.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
05/21/2009 11,305,673,498,034.18 BHO (UP 678,796,449,121.10 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,280,948,601,121.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
04/30/2009 +079,347,503,951.43 ------------**********
05/01/2009 -003,202,605,992.57 --
05/04/2009 +000,068,750,275.89 ------------******* Mon
05/05/2009 +000,122,936,524.80 ------------********
05/06/2009 -000,058,764,073.21 ----
05/07/2009 +027,679,213,817.18 ------------**********
05/08/2009 -000,216,334,016.92 ---
05/11/2009 -000,029,759,155.68 ---- Mon
05/13/2009 -000,207,515,478.68 ---
05/14/2009 +013,927,016,419.76 ------------**********
05/15/2009 +013,064,365,189.63 ------------**********
05/18/2009 -000,012,816,531.74 ---- Mon
05/19/2009 +000,244,659,127.63 ------------********
05/20/2009 +000,422,183,214.17 ------------********
05/21/2009 +016,742,591,292.36 ------------**********

147,891,424,564.05 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,641,041,694,775.11 in last 245 days.
That's 1,641B$ in 245 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 161% of that highest year ever only in 245 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 245 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3888866&mesg_id=3889020

[DemReadingDU]

48. U.S. National Debt Clock: Real Time

WOW!
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

[UpInArms]

52. well, that made my eyes water!

[DemReadingDU]

54. Too bad all the numbers don't show up

or maybe it is my browser?

Truly amazing the amount of debt.

[UpInArms]

67. not your browser - numbers didn't move with the template

but just watching the numbers fly into the trillions was astounding!

thanks for the post

:hi:

[Ghost Dog]

55. China cheerleading gives way to caution on economy

Thu May 21, 2009 6:39am EDT BEIJING (Reuters) - Doubts about the vigor of China's recovery deepened on Thursday as two senior officials and a pair of international banks highlighted the risks still facing the world's third-largest economy.

Vice Premier Li Keqiang said that while the government's 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus plan had yielded initial results, it was too early to hail an economic recovery.

"The international financial crisis is still spreading, and its impact on the real economy is deepening," the official Xinhua news agency quoted Li as saying.

"There are still huge uncertainties, and the process of economic recovery may be tortuous and complicated," Li added.

Li's cautious comments are striking because Premier Wen Jiabao has repeatedly said that confidence is more important for China as it strives to pull out of its downturn.

...

A report by the industry ministry and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said industrial output growth, which has been in single digits since October, may return to double digits in the second half of 2009. But the report said the rebound was not on a solid footing.

Zhu Hongren, an official with the ministry, told Xinhua that weak economic activity, especially reduced external demand, may exacerbate industrial overcapacity. "Caution is needed before we can say that the Chinese economy has bottomed out," Zhu said.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE54K0MV20090521
____

China’s Copper, Aluminum Imports Climb to Record

May 22 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s biggest metals consumer, increased imports of copper and aluminum to a record in April as buyers replenished stockpiles needed for the country’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program. Inbound shipments of refined copper advanced 7 percent from the previous month to 317,947 metric tons and were more than double the same month last year, final customs data showed today. Imports of primary aluminum surged to 362,400 tons, about four times the volume in March.

China’s urban fixed-asset investment climbed 30.5 percent in the first four months from a year earlier as the government pumped money into building railways, low-cost housing and oil pipelines. Copper, used in power grids and homes, jumped 49 percent this year in London as China boosted purchases amid the worst global recession since the Great Depression.

“Imports of both metals probably peaked in April,” Ruan Yinan, an analyst at trader Yatong Metals (Shenzhen) Co. said today. “Buying foreign copper has become almost money-losing and profit margins for aluminum have also fallen.”

China’s economy faces “great uncertainties” as the impact of the global crisis deepens, the state-run Xinhua News Agency said yesterday, citing Vice Premier Li Keqiang. A recovery could be a “zigzagging and complicated” process, Li said.

...

The State Reserve Bureau has mostly completed its buying and stockpiling by manufacturers has ended, said Edward Fang, an analyst at China International Futures (Shanghai) Co.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a4Dz7w6tuTko&refer=asia

[TheWatcher]

58. It's A Pretty Simple Game Isn't It?

When The Market Goes Up, It's based on Propaganda, "Hopes", "Optimism", "Forecasts", and "Projections"

When The Market Goes Down, even though that is just as managed and controlled as the BS Rallies, it's based on tangible, real data that indicates that things are getting worse, and the criminals in charge have absolutely NO Solutions, Policies, Or Plans to serve the interests of We The People.

Oh, and take a look at the dollar.

Then go to GD or LBN, and read some of the rationalizations of it's continued slide into the abyss, and how it doesn't matter.

I DARE you not to vomit.

[TheWatcher]

60. And after all of that hot Air and Posturing with their Propganda and Pom Pom Cheerleaing with that

OBNOXIOUS, show of economic terrorism and fascism on Monday, where has the Market ended up?

7 POINTS ABOVE WHERE IT WAS LAST FRIDAY.

And again, the Dollar continues it's quiet slide into oblivion.

But what are Americans outraged over?

Adam Lambert Lost American Idol.

We are WORSE than Rome.

:crazy:

[nc4bo]

64. But at around 9:45 this morning CNN was saying WS economic fear cooled.

Disregarding the negative territory in the background :rofl:

Heck it was so big it made "Breaking News". The recovery is well underway! woohoo.

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

It IS crazy bs.

[Joe Chi Minh]

74. Just come across this gem of Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book,

Black Swans:

Under the sub-heading, A Little More Dopamine

"A higher concentration of dopamine appears to lower skepticisim and result in greater vulnerability to patter detection; and injection of L-dopa, a substance used to treat patients with Parkinson's disease, seems to increase such activity and lowers one's suspension of disbelief. The person become vulnerable to all manner of fads, such as astrology, superstitions, economics and tarot-card reading"!

So casually, but oh so artfuly slipped in, I almost missed it. Love his good-natured jibes at France and the French!

[DemReadingDU]

76. oops, wrong day

:eyes: