Iran supreme leader orders probe of vote fraud

[dipsydoodle]

Source: Yahoo News

TEHRAN, Iran – Iran's state television says the supreme leader has ordered an investigation into claims of fraud in last week's presidential election.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is ordering the powerful Guardian Council to examine the allegations by pro-reform candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, who claims widespread vote rigging in Friday's election. The government declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner in a landslide victory.

It is a stunning turnaround for Iran's most powerful figure, who previously welcomed the results.

Mousavi wrote an appeal Sunday to the Guardian Council, a powerful 12-member body that's a pillar of Iran's theocracy. Mousavi also met Sunday with Khamenei.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090615/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_election

[lamp_shade]

1. Oh great. Supreme leader appointed the Guardian Council. Supreme leader backs Imadinnerjacket.

This doesn't sound encouraging to me. But ya never know.

[DCKit]

6. I think they'll sacrifice Ahmadinejad in a heartbeat if it prevents a popular revolution.

And if that's really the case. It may take weeks or months for the story to unravel.

In the meantime, I'm wondering if this whole mess wasn't Ahmadinejad attempting a coup against the Ayatollahs. There's always something more to the story.

[EFerrari]

10. Sounds more like the mullahs cutting a deal with the reformers.

Ahmadinejad doesn't have the vibe of a power monger. He's always looked more like a front man who knows he's expendable and not very happy about it to me, anyway.

CNN reran his Larry King interview tonight. What an awful man.

[niceypoo]

When Bush first came around, Iran was headed towards reform

Then Bush started in with his bombastic rhetoric and radicalized Iran. Looks like they are headed back towards reform. Lets hope.

[David__77]

49. They can't do that without destroying the Islamic Republic.

It would be bad move for them strategically, akin to when East Germany removed Honecker in 1989. It would only inflame further demands that go outside the constraints of the ideological framework of the state. I'm not saying that this would be bad; only that it would be a bad move by the ruling elite if they want to maintain power.

[Fedja]

14. It's because you lack information

The Supreme Leader, and actually, the Majles-e-Khebregan (the council that elects the Supreme Leader) can't stand Ahmadinejad. He has always been at odds with them, and they'd like nothing more than to depose him.

As much as it may be opportune to flat-out hate anything from and of Iran, the facts don't support your argument.

[MicaelS]

38. Why can't stand Ahmadinejad?

Seems like their kind of guy. The USA this, Israel that. Not trying to be smart, I'm asking seriously.

[Fedja]

67. It's complicated.

Ahmadinejad's spiritual mentor is Ayatollah Mohammed-Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, one of the members of the "Council of Experts". He is openly at odds with Ayatollah Khamenei, and the two have butted heads on several occasions in the past. Ahmadinejad is seen as a satellite representative of said Ayatollah, and not someone the whole council would like to see leading the country, particularly because of significant differences in how they seek to interpret Shariah law.

What may surprise the average MSM viewer, the Council of Experts, which technically leads the country, would prefer a more moderate and modern approach than the one currently preached and practiced.

[MicaelS]

70. Most interesting, thank you

So what is holding back reform? It is the military or the Revolutionary Guards, or are they one and the same?

[Fedja]

72. The West, ironicaly.

The more they're pressured by the West, the more they lock themselves into their mental trenches. Iran was a modern nation until the Shah was overthrown.

[caseymoz]

41. Is the elected government a shadow government otherwise?

Correct me if I'm wrong, please. I always thought that the theocracy was what really ruled the country and the elected government really didn't have any power.

[Fedja]

68. Yes.

As in many countries (mine included), the presidency is FAR from what you see in the US. The POTUS is a figure where the executive power is concentrated, and he speaks for a whole third of the State (under the doctrine of the balance triangle, legislative-executive-judiciary http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Separation_of_powers)

The president in a country with a non-presidential system is little more than the "lead diplomat", someone that travels, shakes hands, and reports the positions of the government.

[caseymoz]

71. I hate to say, that's one quality of totalitarian regimes.

A front government. Not that Iran is exactly totalitarian, but it has some qualities.

[Fedja]

73. Nah

It's not a front government, just a presidency without total executive power. You'll find that that particular aspect of the presidency is shared by most developed western countries.

My president in Slovenia, Europe hasn't the faintest power to do anything. He's our voice, our international smiley face. That's all.

[lamp_shade]

44. Pardon me? Which of my statements suggests I lack information?

[Fedja]

69. The final of them.

Khamenei does not back Ahmadinejad, and there was speculation that this election issue was part of a deeper effort to change the current Supreme Leader with one of the other Mullahs from the Council of Experts. You appear to know little to nothing about the intricacies of the council, the election of the Supreme Leader, and the current power struggle between Khamenei and Ahmadinejad.

[dorkulon]

75. Most of us know little to nothing about the intracacies of the council

and it's not really something to be condescending about--why would we?

I appreciate the information, though. Why do you think we are being told by our press that Khamenei does back Ahmadinejad? Do you think the recount will yield a different result? Do you think the election was rigged? If so, how can this happen if the real center of power wants otherwise?

[Fedja]

76. I wasnt aiming for concescending

My initial response may have been a bit snide due to the "Imadinnerjacket" reference, which implies mockery. Mockery without a sound factual base shows willful ignorance, and ignorance is the reason for most of the suffering in that region. That and greed, but you know what I mean. :)

All in all, Iran is an infinitely complex situation, and there are tons of power centers with vested interest right now. For one, I think the fact that Khamenei approved a recount is a very strong public message. It states that he, regardless of the outcome, values public concerns more than blind adherence to the process. Seeing the popular uprising and dissent in Iran today, he might buckle under the force of the masses and concede on some level.

You see, the details are irrelevant, who the president is doesn't really matter, and what particular consequences will come is largely inconsequential. The point is, many Iranian people demand more modernization and moderation, and the Supreme Leader acknowledged their concerns publically.

As for your press... The press needs viewers, and for the most part, they need an enemy in a conflict even when there isn't one. They report in black&white and have little urge to explore the gray areas. You see the leadership of any country that was painted as an antagonist universally slapped with the "bad guy" brush. Serbia, Russia, Iran, North Korea, none of these countries allowed for any human factor or regional and historic relevance. They're simply evil in the news.

Khamenei looks the part, and Ahmadinejad said retarded things about the holocaust. That's all that the media really reports about them, trumpeting the NUKE keyword whenever possible as well. :) That's a whole different topic however.

[dorkulon]

77. I get that.

You couldn't be an American with half a brain during the Reagan years and not come to understand that our propaganda was actually much more sophisticated and effective than the Soviets' I don't think the Russians ever called us anything quite as stupid as an "Evil Empire". I understand Iran is not a country of "bad guys". North Korea, though--that really is a shitty government, you have to admit.

But here's he thing: What I'm hearing from my TV is that Khamenei likes Ahmadinejad because he can control him, but sees Moussavi as a former colleague, someone less beholden to him, who will diminish his influence. Is there no truth to that?

I understand that the position is not very significant, and actually that is getting through the press here--that even if Moussavi won it wouldn't mean all that much. But I have been wondering if the result is overturned, might it not lead to further violence and chaos on the part of Ahmadinejad's supporters.

[Fedja]

78. It certainly could.

The situation is a classic urban versus rural split. Ahmadinejad is wildly popular in the rural conservative areas, and most of the support for the opposition comes from urban areas and the student population. The conflict is in the air, and no matter who is eventually declared the winner, the Council of Experts remains in control, and the losing side will be rioting on.

The best thing to hope for is the army not taking sides or splitting down the middle.

[David__77]

50. Very true. The clerical elite don't like Ahmedinajad.

He's seen as populist, too "anti-imperialist," and, interestingly, not conservative enough for doing things such as kissing the hand of his female former school teacher in public - a real "no no." A lot of Iranians like him for those reasons though...

[Hippo_Tron]

58. I believe Khamenei supported Ahmadinejad

I know Rafsanjani is head of the Assembly of Experts or Majles-e-Khebregan and he doesn't like Ahmadinejad.

[Prometheus Bound]

79. Well I just read that the supreme leader can't stand Mousavi!!!

Iran on the brink?
By Mark LeVine

....Equally important, if there was systematic fraud, was it perpetrated as a collective decision of a senior leadership unwilling to accept the cultural, political and economic liberalisation a Mousavi government would initiate, or, as University of Michigan professor Juan Cole and others have argued, did it owe to a sudden fit of pique by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?

His well-known personal antipathy to Mir Hossein Mousavi could have made the imminent prospect of his long-time political rival's victory so distasteful that he could not bring himself to sanction Mousavi's victory, leading to a hastily arranged fraud - many ballot boxes were allegedly never even opened before the official tabulation was announced - even as other parts of the leadership were laying the groundwork for a public announcement of Ahmadinejad's defeat.
http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2009/06/200961781431119985.html

[EFerrari]

2. I wonder what this means, in practice.

[dipsydoodle]

3. The Supreme Leader

is THE DECIDER as the he is in effect the ruler of Iran. I think everyone is amazed that he's done this. Looks as though the letter he received from Mousavi had some effect.

[FarPoint]

5. We had a similar ruling for our 2000 election

called the US Supreme Court.

[peacetalksforall]

30. Our not so supreme court is also ruled by Christian radicals at the demand and by

trade off agreement of the religious right - they provide votes that gets the ultras, neos, pnacers, and secret societies into power here. Not that they have that many votes, but their loyalty means that they have a lower margin of votes that must be stolen.

Muslims there. Christians here. Both religion/religious/radical religion. Both rule.

Hey - we're brothers. And sisters. In Iran. In America. We have a lot in common.

To be serious. I hope the best for Iran and for peace. I am pro-Iran, pro-Palestinian, and am losing my pro-Israel unless they do something to mind their own business and boundaries and let other people live in dignity. Dignity.

[woo me with science]

45. Yeah, it's EXACTLY the same.

:eyes:

[caseymoz]

39. Except the Supreme Court has to wait until cases are brought to it.

I'm presuming that the council doesn't. It also doesn't command its own militia.

[The Hope Mobile]

53. Hopefully the results will be justice/transparency this time instead of more cover up.

like in Bush v Gore - I don't wish our last 8 years of mis-rule on anyone.

[EFerrari]

7. Or maybe he's on twitter, too?

I guess these people won't be happy.

[regnaD kciN]

12. The only power greater than the Ayatollah is the Guardian Council...

...and it alone has the power to remove him from his position.

Mousavi and his reformists apparently had some powerful allies on the Council, including Rafsanjani (one of the leaders of the 1979 revolution, and close ally of Khomeni).

Since Khameni had already endorsed the election twice, including calling it a "divinely blessed" judgment, I can only assume that he discovered that the Council didn't share his opinion, and is currently backtracking like mad to keep from getting ousted.

Make no mistake: this is a very big development.

[EFerrari]

13. The Guardian Council sounds like "the Overlords" to me.

I have no idea who they are or how they got there. Here is the wiki entry:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guardian_Council

[Hippo_Tron]

59. Note quite correct, the Assembly of Experts elects and removes the Supreme Leader

The Guardian Council is largely appointed by the Supreme Leader and they are charged with selecting the candidates for office. Rafsanjani leads the Assembly of Experts although I think he resigned in protest of the election results.

[killbotfactory]

17. I'm guessing that he didn't expect the popular resistance to electoral fraud

From what I have read about Iran, the youngest generation has the majority. If the conservative theocratic forces abuse their power too much, they risk a backlash among the general populace and losing their power altogether.

I'm guessing they will try to lump the protesters in with US and Israeli interests in order to clamp down on threats to their power. Hopefully the people will have the will and means to resist them.

[tocqueville]

4. the independent inquiry will probably find...

that there were some irregularities indeed, but not of the magnitude that the results of the elections can't be validated.

so the alibi for the West will be presented. On the question if they would accept independent international monitoring, they will be probably very offended.

[dipsydoodle]

9. On the subject of international monitoring

Ajerbaijan had that and they kicked the monitors out. What did the USA do about that ? - sweet fuck all due to the usual issues of oil and gas.

[EFerrari]

11. Iirc, we kicked the montiors out here, too, in 2004. n/t

[Fedja]

15. Anyone would be

No selfrespecting country likes international observers on their elections. I'm pretty sure you'd object to some frenchie standing around your election booth, making sure you're not doing anything shifty.

[EFerrari]

16. That's not really true. Usually, the cleaner the elections,

the happier the host country is to show off their system. And why the United States hasn't cooperated with observers very well in recent elections. We're cleaning things up here but I remember observers being treated very badly in Ohio, for example, in 2004.

[Fedja]

18. It's a symbollic resignation of independence.

To some extent, at least. These measures are imposed on defeated and battered countries that cannot resist them. Any significant world power laughs at the suggestion.

[EFerrari]

19. Not in practice. Venezuela welcomes monitors

and you can't really call Hugo Chavez defeated or battered. :)

[Mudoria]

32. He said any significant world power.. Chavez doesn't qualify.

[EFerrari]

34. And that would be wrong. n/t

[Fedja]

65. Chavez is different

He still has to fight to justify Venezuela's democratic processes as valid and fair. Not because there were issues with the way he runs the state, but because he's constructing a 21st century Socialist system, and general perceptions of that concept are flawed around the world.

[EFerrari]

74. Yes, I've noticed.

lol

[tblue37]

40. No, actually, we who were appalled at the stolen elections of 2000 and 2004

wanted desperately for our elections to have international monitors. And since we don't call our friends in France "Frenchies," and don't feel the need to change the name of French fries to "freedom fries" because of some misguided animosity toward the people you call "Frenchies," I think you are way off the mark here.

[Fedja]

66. Hope I didn't come over wrong

I adore the French, and my endearing spin of the term was exactly that, and in no way derogatory. I've lived 90% of my life in Europe, and I consider France one of the shining examples of a developed and prosperous social state. With the exemption of a couple Scandinavian countries, I can't think of any place I'd like to live more.

However, my point was that of a "foreigner" supervising a US election, I could have gone with an Iranian as well. The mere reason I picked the French would be that it's an average country of which most readers of the post would have heard. :) I guess I'll drop that assumption in the future and pick examples from Latvia and Turkmenistan :)

[caseymoz]

42. Maybe that's the way they'd behave,

But in an important election, it would be great to have some independent parties verify it.

[Solly Mack]

8. K&R

[Turborama]

20. K&R for a very interesting development

It's now got the potential of being quite a historic turn of events.

[DCBob]

21. Just heard Ahmadinejad has canceled a planned trip to Russia.

This suggests something big may be happening.

[SKKY]

22. Well this ought to be fair.

:sarcasm:

[DCBob]

23. It just might be..

The people won't calm down if the probe comes back in favor of Ahmadinejad. Call me a naive optimist but I see something important happening here.

[Clio the Leo]

26. And at the very least, it acknowledges that Ahmadinejad COULD be in the wrong...

.... and that's better than what we had this time yesterday.

[Merryweather]

24. So it's not a 'divine assessment' any more?

Either God dropped the ball, or the the reception between Khameini's ear and Heaven really sucks.

[Jester Messiah]

25. Follow #iranelection on Twitter for real-time events

The revolution is twitterized!

[tomm2thumbs]

27. Would be interesting if they decide better for their own situation if they have the youth support

Or they will say 'we've looked into it and it is fair - now go home and get back to work'...

[jeff30997]

28. Ahmadinejad is toast IMHO.

[DCBob]

31. I think so too. He is damaged goods now.

Not sure how it will happen but he will somehow be removed.

[David__77]

51. I'd be very very surprised.

They cannot do that without imperiling the whole set-up.

[DCBob]

54. The whole "set-up" is in imperil at this very moment.

I think they will have an election redo with better monitoring and Moussavi will win this time.

[David__77]

56. How is it in peril?

The military and other armed forces aren't in mutiny, and there seems to be the strategic will of the elite to maintain power.

There is this illusion that unarmed demonstrators make revolution, but that's not true. Remember the Tienanmen incident? That's a case in point. This will subside. If it doesn't the militias will clear them out.

[DCBob]

57. Millions in the street willing to die for justice. Duh.

We don't know yet if the military will intervene -- so far they have not.

[David__77]

60. Even if there were 2 million, which there aren't, that wouldn't mean a revolution.

For a revolution to occur, power would have to be seized.

[DCBob]

61. How do you know there aren't 2 million? Some reports say there might be 3 million....

and the numbers are growing by the minute. Women are now joining in -- the fear is gone. It very well may be a revolution in the making.

[David__77]

62. Because this opposition candidate had a fairly narrow social base.

His support was mainly in the middle and upper classes, which are a decided minority of the population. By no means do I support Ahmadinajad, but the fact is that the opposition went in for anti-popular economic policies, criticizing price subsidies and wanting privatization of state and collective firms. These policies are very unpopular among working class people in Iran. The social base of Mousavi is not unlike the opposition in Venezuela, for instance, in terms of socio-economic class, though the countries are very different obviously.

That's the problem. A candidate that could have really changed things in a progressive direction never would have been allowed to run in the first place. I wish there was a Bani Sadr or a Mossadegh, but there is not.

Meanwhile, I do not believe that the current opposition has the social base, and I don't think the international conditions favor, a revolution in Iran. We will see...

[Autumn Colors]

48. The entire theocracy is toast

These are all moderates protesting. Many want an entirely secular government.

[lame54]

29. another 9/11 commission

[troubledamerican]

64. Another Warren Commission. And another Iran-Contra commission.

[varelse]

33. Seems like a smart move

The investigation should help restore order - something a brutal police response obviously could not do.

[DCBob]

35. Reports coming in on Twitter say the protest/rally is huge!

Ten of thousands perhaps millions on the streets of Tehran. Wow.

[Odin2005]

36. PR stunt.

The "probe" will say what Khamenei wants it to say and will be used to legitimize repression.

[DCBob]

37. Moussavi appears at Iran protest rally now -- hundreds of thousands of supporters!

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/15/iran.elections.protests/index.html

[DFW]

43. At least they ARE going to probe it

Not like USA 2000 where we took a sucker punch that changed world history permanently for the worse.

Of course, there's nothing like a million (or however many it really was) young Iranians in a
country where half the population is under 30 to make the old white beards notice that maybe
something wasn't quite right. Ahmadinejad's grandstanding never sat well with the ruling
council anyway, but true reform never really appealed to them either (at least he was THEIR
son of a bitch, to borrow a phrase from former times). But the population seems to want
neither a 13th century theocracy nor Peronistas, and that means many Iranians are going to
end up very disappointed when this is all over, and they do not sound like they plan to
take it sitting down.

[DCBob]

46. Khatami has just called for the election to be declared VOID at todays protests in Tehran.

Things happening very fast now over there. I think there will be new elections. They were expecting to do a runoff anyway so it's no big deal to have a redo.

[David__77]

52. How can they have new elections? There's no legal provision for them.

There was an election, and it was a crushing landslide across the country. The opposition did win in some areas, however. Having another election would mean saying that the entire state machinery is a fraud and deserves to be removed and replaced. I don't see that happening.

[DCBob]

55. To save face they might just call it a runoff.

They were expecting a runoff anyway.

[Autumn Colors]

47. Only because there is splintering of the mullahs now....

He's only calling for this because Rafsanjani is supporting the protesters and he sees that his days are numbered. He's trying to buy time and make people think they don't need to be out in the streets, but the people don't believe him and aren't listening anymore.

It's now Rafsanjani, Khatami, and Mousavi versus Khameini and Ahmadinejad and Khameini threatened Mousavi on live TV (confirmed by multiple Iranians via Twitter).

The protests will not stop. People are chanting "Death to Khameini" in the streets which would have been unheard of a week ago. This is a revolution.

It kind of boggles my mind that both the grandchild of Ayatollah Khomeini (1979 revolution) and the son of the former Shah of Iran are in support of the students. The former got arrested and the latter posted a message of support on his website.

[dpbrown]

63. Whitewash - who do you think ordered the election to be stolen?

Khamenei is the one who ordered Ahmadinejad to be put back in power.

[BrightKnight]

80. The only thing being probed is the voters. - n/t