US home price gains may not be sustainable - Shiller

[TacticalPeek]

Source: Bloomberg


US home price gains may not be sustainable - Shiller

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The gains in U.S. home prices in recent months may not be sustainable and increases in some areas of the country appear to be in "bubble territory," an economist known for his property market expertise said on Tuesday.

Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University and co-developer of Standard and Poor's S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, told Reuters Television he does not give quantitative forecasts on where home prices are headed but is concerned about the recent pace of increases.

Home prices in certain areas, such as Minneapolis and San Francisco, have risen by double-digits over a mere four months, and if viewed on an annualized basis, they look like they are in "bubble territory," Shiller said.

"It is a time of great uncertainty," he said.



Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssConsumerFinancialServices/idUSN2725662820091027

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Gee, it was a swell recession while it lasted.

[zeos3]

1. My head hurts.

Here's the other article on LBN:

U.S. home prices appear to have bottomed out

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4121580

Source: Los Angeles Times.com

U.S. home prices appear have to scraped a bottom, with a leading national index showing three consecutive months of gains this summer.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 metropolitan areas showed a 1% increase in the seasonally adjusted median price of homes from July to August. The index has posted month-to-month gains since June.

"I think we have reached some kind of bottom," David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's Index Committee, said. U.S. home prices continued to decline in August, falling 11.3% when compared to the same month a year earlier, though not as steeply as past months, according to the data released this morning.

"This one looks real at this point," Blitzer said. "The question more to me is whether this is going to sort of flatten out or if it is going to go straight up; if you get a month that goes down , I don't think that it is much of a concern."

Looking at the seasonally adjusted monthly data, 17 of the metro areas tracked by the index showed improvements in August when compared to July. Meanwhile, 19 out of the 20 markets showed moderation in their year-over-year rates of decline.

As of August, home prices across the United States are at their pre-bubble levels of autumn 2003, according to the index.

Southern California cities -- San Diego and, in particular, Los Angeles -- have seen notable gains, separating themselves from other Sun Belt cities, including Las Vegas and Phoenix, Blitzer said.


Read more: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-home-prices28-200...

[Robb]

2. Yeah, right.

...We'll see how housing does when/if that $8,000 give-away to the real estate industry fizzles out.

[quakerboy]

3. Yup

We are right at the mark on that. The last of my offers timed out yesterday, I don't figure I have enough time left to be sure I could get it done in time to get the credit. I figure we have another month (maybe two, depending on whether people paid attention to the details) of up, and then the sales numbers will drop again.

Even if they re-up the credit, the "crunch" to buy now will be reduced, and the numbers will drop some. Although if they expand it to investors, that could counteract the drop.

And I hear rumors of another wave of a new type of mortgage/forclosures gonna start to hit soon.

[northernlights]

4. another round of Alt-As I think in November

followed by another round of foreclosures next year.

And I just learned last Friday that the big-name realtor I "listed" with in June in an attempt to sell and downsize during this "bubble" not only was not returning calls from interested prospects...apparently she never listed my house in MLS. Put a bogus number on the listing sheet.

I have a call in to the state real estate commission. I'm not real hopeful, but considering that she's costing the state revenues in terms of transfer fees and potentially revenues if I go belly up, they may start cracking down. I have proof of breach of contract and have tracked down one witness who called about my property and never got a call back.

[Psephos]

7. Trust Shiller over the L.A. Times. He's one of the absolute best minds on this topic.

His book, Irrational Exuberance, is a landmark in understanding bubbles. His scholarship is impeccable, and his peer respect is massive.

[exboyfil]

8. Schiller has an excellent free course available

from Yale Online. It is on financial markets, and it was taught in the Spring of 2008 (interesting to hear the perspective at the time not realizing how bad it was going to get).

[ozone_man]

5. Letting the air out of a balloon.

It's never a steady thing. Ups and down and all around, but in the end, down, down, down it will go.

[bobshin]

6. They're extending jobless benefits again and again because there are no jobs

How is anyone going to be able to buy a house no matter how low the market gets? The economy hasn't hit near bottom yet and the extended benefits plus the $8,000 credit for buying will end in the winter months. We haven't seen anything yet. No jobs, no money; no money no taxes; no taxes, no services; no services, no business; no business, no jobs. The only upside is that 90% of us are all in the same sinking boat.

[eridani]

9. If people keep getting shit for pay, how do they afford them? n/t