STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday August 12

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday August 12, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 11, 2010

Dow... 10,378.83 -265.42 (-2.56%)
Nasdaq... 2,208.63 -68.54 (-3.10%)
S&P 500... 1,089.47 -31.59 (-2.90%)
Gold future... 1,203 +3.60 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.72 +0.03 (+1.12%)
30-Year Bond 3.94 +0.01 (+0.23%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 08/07
Briefing.com 465K
Consensus 465K
Prior 479K

08:30 Continuing Claims 07/31
Briefing.com 4500K
Consensus 4600K
Prior 4537K

08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jul
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -0.2%

08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jul
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -0.6%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Demeter]

19. And in the Weather

it's 70F and 100% humidity. It's never that high even when it's raining. Going outside is slow suffocation.

We had a deluge yesterday--nothing like the poor folks of China and Pakistan...

[Dr.Phool]

24. Sounds beautiful.

Our lows at night are in the 80's. I climbed up on the roof last week to install a solar powered attic fan. I went up at about 8:30am. What should have been about a one hour job, I quit after 3 hours because it just got too damned hot up there. I still have about 20 minutes worth of work to finish it, but it's raining.

The thing works though. The garage is tolerable to walk into now, without all that radiant heat coming down.

[Demeter]

30. I hope it stays overcast.

I can't imagine what direct sunlight would do to this.

[Roland99]

56. Hmm...what exactly did you install and how does it work?

I should look into this. My garage is always STIFLING. Even in the evenings when there's a breeze and the garage door is open.

[Dr.Phool]

67. It's a solar powered attic fan.

http://www.costco.com/Browse/Product.aspx?Prodid=11541995&search=attic%20fan&Mo=1&cm_re=1_en-_-Top_Left_Nav-_-Top_search&lang=en-US&Nr=P_CatalogName:BC&Sp=S&N=5000043&whse=BC&Dx=mode+matchallpartial&Ntk=Text_Search&Dr=P_CatalogName:BC&Ne=4000000&D=attic%20fan&Ntt=attic%20fan&No=1&Ntx=mode+matchallpartial&Nty=1&topnav=&s=1


I don't know if the link will work, but go to www.costco.com and search attic fan. I ordered it last winter, when it was on sale with $60 off.

I keep the garage door closed, but you could just feel the heat radiate down. It's really made a difference. And it should cut my electric bills too. That same heat counteracts the air conditioning, and all the duct work is up there also. I'll see what my next electric bill looks like.

Had to cut a 13" hole in the roof to install it. But, if you already have a vent up there, you can use that opening.

[Roland99]

69. Sweet.

I'll have to take a close look at my roof to see where I can fit that. Can't really put it on the front of the house unless I want to deal with the hassle from the HOA.

I was putting some boxes up in the attic storage above the garage and noticed there was NO insulation anywhere in all that space. And, considering that open space runs over part of the master bath and kitchen, it could certainly do me well to ventilate and insulate.

[Dr.Phool]

70. The panel detatches.

My house faces south, and I didn't want the vent on the front of the house. So, I mounted the vent on the rear, and put the solar panel just below the peak on the front. It's only about 12" square, and is barely noticeable. You almost have to look for it to see it.

[Roland99]

71. Cool

My garage faces east so it heats up with the morning/early afternoon sun and just percolates all thru the afternoon and evening.

[Po_d Mainiac]

36. Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Climbed Last Week

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- More Americans unexpectedly filed applications for unemployment insurance last week, signaling firings stepped up as the economy slowed.

Initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 484,000 in the week ended Aug. 7, the highest level since mid February, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits dropped, while those getting supplemental benefits surged by 1.34 million reflecting the government’s extension of eligibility.

Companies may be losing confidence in the recovery and are hesitant to hire, raising the risk of further erosion in consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy. Federal Reserve policy makers this week said growth “is likely to be more modest” than they previously projected, prompting central bankers to take additional steps to spur a rebound.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLk38IPaSJjM&pos=1
.......................
Sure couldn't have seen this coming!

What will make this second 10meter platform entry into the shallow end of the pool any different from 2007? To start, we already have unemployment running at 10% and all levels of State and local governments in the cross-hairs of plunging revenues.

What ever happened to all the shit terms like "green shoots" and "jobless recovery" that seemed to flow like unabated diarrhea from the talking heads?

[Tansy_Gold]

51. Unexpectedly! Unexpectedly! This was unexpected! They said so!

Okay, okay, I'm losing my mind.

The BF is supposed to meet with Pinal County Supervisor Bryan Martyn today or tomorrow to discuss economic initiatives. The BF is pretty much incapable of thinking in any terms other than sales, customer service, data management, etc. Martyn, of course, can't think at all, doesn't have a clue. BF asked for my opinion over dinner last night and said the only thing that can stop the current trend is to raise taxes on the rich. First words out of his mouth: "It'll never happen." And my immediate response: "Then neither will the recovery."

As far as we know, Martyn doesn't know there's any connection between me and the BF, so this ought to be interesting. . . . . .



TG

[Ghost Dog]

57. Please take assiduous notes

and soon produce a Pulitzer-standard account of these proceedings for our inspiration and delight, Tansy.

Do you know any good documentary film-makers?

[ozymandius]

2. Oil falls below $78 on signs world economy slowing

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell below $78 a barrel Thursday in Asia, extending losses amid signs the global economy will grow at a slower rate in the second half than previously expected.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 2.5 percent Wednesday after the Commerce Department said the trade deficit widened in June to its highest level in 20 months as exports dipped. This could signal a slowdown in manufacturing and a slumping economy.

In other Nymex trading in September contracts, heating oil fell 1.87 cents to $2.0565 a gallon, gasoline dropped 1.18 cents to $1.9858 a gallon and natural gas slid 1.4 cents to $4.312 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Homes lost to foreclosure up 6 pct from last year

LOS ANGELES – The number of U.S. homes lost to foreclosure surged in July, another sign lenders are moving quicker to take back properties from homeowners behind in payments.

Lenders repossessed 92,858 properties last month, up 9 percent from June and an increase of 6 percent from July 2009, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.

Banks have stepped up repossessions this year to clear out the backlog of bad loans. July makes the eighth month in a row that the pace of homes lost to foreclosure has increased on an annual basis.

Economic woes, such as unemployment or reduced income, are now the main catalysts for foreclosures. Initially, lax lending standards were the culprit, but homeowners with good credit who took out conventional, fixed-rate loans are now the fastest growing group of foreclosures.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100812/ap_on_bi_ge/us_foreclosure_rates

[florida08]

13. Dylan Ratigan

and Thom Hartman have both told people who are upside down in their homes to just walk away because they would never be right side up. Can't say I blame them

[Tansy_Gold]

22. Let me show you one of them

Purchased in late 2005/early 2006 for approx $600,000, balance owed in May 2010 approx $585,000. Notice of Trustee Sale filed with Pinal County, AZ on 17 May 2010; sale scheduled for 23 August 2010.

http://www.weichert.com/32707525/

Currently listed at $399,900. I don't think that includes the white baby grand but maybe it does.

Current owner: Pinal County District 2 Supervisor Bryan Martyn (R-Wingnuttery) and his wife Susan.




Tansy Gold, on a mission

[DemReadingDU]

34. In a different thread, you mentioned LTTE

Did it get printed in the paper yet?


This is one of the reasons I love the SMW. People here care about what happens in their community and get involved.

[Tansy_Gold]

37. It's only a little bitty weekly, so I won't know until next week.

The thing is, even though I paid attention to politics here, I didn't REALLY pay attention until just a few weeks ago when I got an unsolicited invitation to a meet-up with the local tea baggers. That's a separate issue, and I'm going to have to find time to look into some allegations that were made involving that little event, too.

But the publication this past Monday of the "information" on the trustee sale of the luxury home purchased by "war hero" Bryan Martyn prior to his election as (one of three) Pinal County Supervisor really grabbed my attention. I knew he was retired military, knew he had absolutely not one shred of experience in the private sector. He went to college right out of high school at Embry-Riddle, which is an aero school (for lack of better term) and then he became a military pilot for 20 years. Immediately upon leaving the military, he ran for the county supervisor position. Now, less than two years after the election, the house is up for auction.

I wanted to know how that happened. Was it bad judgment? Did he bite off more house than he could handle? Did he just want out of the upside down mortgage? What was going on?

He has claimed repeatedly, in public statements as well as in private messages to me, that he can't afford the house. He blamed "the economy" even though his income (active duty military, military pension, defense consulting job, and county office salary) since buying the house was never dependent on "the economy." It IS responsible for the decline in the home's value, from $600K to about $400K or less.

He claims to have sold personal assets -- including a motorcycle and classic sports car -- in an attempt to make payments, but apparently he doesn't understand that selling off assets to pay debts when you don't have sufficient income to pay the bills is unsustainable.

But all that is only part of the story. What it did was get me looking into the politics even further, and we've got a real rat's nest here in pretty red Pinal County, including a real slime bucket of a first-term sheriff, Paul Babeu -- who is big buddies with Martyn -- and the new sheriff's equally slimy brother Shaun who is now running for Justice of the Peace. Can you spell conflict of interest? Sheriff's dept arrests someone and brings them to court in front of the sheriff's brother as JP? Can you imagine the potential for lawsuits?

And yes, this is the same Paul Babeu who appeared with McCain in the infamous border fence ad, even though Pinal County doesn't touch the border. (To be honest, much of Pinal County does straddle one of the human smuggling corridors and there have been incidents with undocumented immigrants being dumped or going through the local communities, but so far no headless hordes have invaded.)

So I'm just starting to get into these issues, and already I've encountered the usual bullshit coming from the usual R suspects.

I'll keep you all posted.



Tansy Gold, NTY

[Roland99]

41. SMW has become a veritable Peyton's Plance of Politics!

[DemReadingDU]

45. Amazing what happens in smalll communities too

Fraud, corruption, conflicts of interests...it's everywhere.
Looking forward to following your story.

[Ghost Dog]

62. Now you see, over here, we'd have to merely insinuate, poetically if possible,

any such accusations of (well-known by and obvious to all) such, ahem, sliminess in relation to personal characteristics and/or public behavior of locally well-known elected representatives and, indeed, anyone else.

The gamut of anti-libel, etc. laws is that strong here. If you say it, publicly, you have to be able to prove it in a court of law. And pay what that costs. Otherwise, you'll find youself paying much, much more.

[florida08]

77. beautiful home

but glad it's not me..didn't put very much down if he still owed that much after 4 years..'wingnuttery'..lol

[Demeter]

39. Debts Rise, and Go Unpaid, as Bust Erodes Home Equity

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/12/business/12debt.html

...The result is one of the paradoxes of the recession: the more money you borrowed, the less likely you will have to pay up...Lenders wrote off as uncollectible $11.1 billion in home equity loans and $19.9 billion in home equity lines of credit in 2009, more than they wrote off on primary mortgages, government data shows. So far this year, the trend is the same, with combined write-offs of $7.88 billion in the first quarter...

Even when a lender forces a borrower to settle through legal action, it can rarely extract more than 10 cents on the dollar. “People got 90 cents for free,” Mr. Combs said. “It rewards immorality, to some extent.”

...........................................

But the borrowers argue that they are simply rebuilding their ravaged lives. Many also say that the banks were predatory, or at least indiscriminate, in making loans, and nevertheless were bailed out by the federal government. Finally, they point to their trump card: they say will declare bankruptcy if a settlement is not on favorable terms.

“I am not going to be a slave to the bank,” said Shawn Schlegel, a real estate agent who is in default on a $94,873 home equity loan. His lender obtained a court order garnishing his wages, but that was 18 months ago. Mr. Schlegel, 38, has not heard from the lender since. “The case is sitting stagnant,” he said. “Maybe it will just go away.”

.............................................

Darin Bolton, a software engineer, defaulted on the loans for his house in a Chicago suburb last year because “we felt we were just tossing our money into a hole.” This spring, he moved into a rental a few blocks away.

“I’m kind of banking on there being too many of us for the lenders to pursue,” he said. “There is strength in numbers.”

[PassingFair]

78. “ Reckless fools lost first....

...because they deserved to lose, and careful, wise men lost later because a world-wide earthquake doesn’t ask for personal references.


Edwin LeFevre, 1932

[ozymandius]

4. Gloom reigns as US recovery slows

WASHINGTON (AFP) – World markets were thrown into turmoil as investors worried that US growth -- a key engine of the global economy -- is coming coughing and spluttering to a halt.

Investors from New York to Tokyo poured money into safer assets after the Federal Reserve warned the US recovery would be "more modest" than expected.

The US Commerce Department reported that imports to the United States increased by three percent in June, draining billions of dollars out of the US economy.

"This is spectacularly terrible," said Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics, explaining that rising imports will eat into already anemic domestic growth.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100812/bs_afp/useconomy

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This sentiment will eventually link Wall Street to the rest of us. "Spectacularly horrible" is not the phrase one hears that often in a news story about our situation. Nor did I ever expect to hear Obama say in a speech that the next phase of the recovery would be "made in the U.S.A."

Maybe seeing Larry Summers running from the White House with a shoe planted in his ass is not too great a wish.

[Ghost Dog]

63. Heh heh. "Spectacularly horrible". One can just imagine the coterie of stenographers

got-together in the canteen and, laughing hysterically, coughing up such (said, often apparently mutually-agreed and quickly-spread) phrases. Are they stretching the envelope yet?

Perhaps we could have a SMW competition: Q. Any advance on "Spectacularly horrible"? Anyone?

¿Horrendously dire, perhaps?

[ozymandius]

5. World stock markets slammed by economic fears

LONDON (AFP) – World stock markets slid again on Thursday with investors moving away from risky assets on mounting fears of a global economic slowdown, and the dollar wallowed close to a 15-year low point against the yen.

A worldwide sell-off erupted on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England cut their outlooks this week, while investors also shunned risk on signs of slowing industrial growth and rising inflation in China.

The International Energy Agency, which has rare insights into oil market data revealing hidden forces at work in the economy, warned on Wednesday that significant risks to economic recovery could be detected.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100812/bs_afp/financeeconomyworldstocksforex

[ozymandius]

6. Asian shares slide on signs of slowing growth

BANGKOK – Asian markets tumbled Thursday as investors dumped riskier assets like stocks amid growing evidence the world economic recovery is stumbling. European shares posted moderate gains after a big drop the day before.

In Japan, a strong yen that is adding to the challenges faced by the country's exporters continued to weigh on stocks. The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average shed 80.26 points, or 0.9 percent, to 9,212.59.

South Korea's Kospi dived 2.1 percent to 1,721.75, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.2 percent to 4,400.90 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng retreated 0.9 percent to 21,105.71.

The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.7 percent to a two-week low of 2,575.48. Taiwan, India, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia were among other losing markets.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100812/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[Warpy]

75. They totally cratered last night about 10 PM my time

but most improved into non crater territory by the time they closed 6 hours later, although only one was up a tick.

European markets were mixed, some up, some down, none by a tremendous amount.

[Demeter]

82. I Can't Believe That Anybody Believed Those August Bodies

in their rosy scenarios. When will they ever learn?

[ozymandius]

7. Company job openings drop for 2nd straight month

The data comes after a weak employment report Friday that showed businesses aren't adding enough new workers to bring down the unemployment rate, currently 9.5 percent.

The survey counts job openings on the last day of the month. Those openings may take up to three months to fill, economists say. That means Wednesday's report provides a rough signal of how many jobs will be created over the next several months.

The Labor Department says job openings at businesses fell to 2.54 million in June from 2.6 million in May. Overall openings were unchanged, at 2.9 million, as government openings ticked up. The government figures have been distorted in recent months by the ending of hundreds of thousands of temporary census jobs.

June's total openings are 26 percent above the low point of 2.3 million in July 2009. That may seem like a lot of available jobs, but they are still far below pre-recession levels of about 4.4 million openings per month.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100811/ap_on_bi_ge/us_job_openings

[ozymandius]

8. FDIC Reviews Insurers’ Retained Death Benefits, Has ‘Concerns’

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is reviewing whether life insurers misled customers about retained death benefits, and urged companies to clearly disclose that the funds aren’t guaranteed by the U.S. government.

Chairman Sheila Bair said an initial review indicates consumers may mistakenly believe the accounts are insured by the FDIC, according to a letter to the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. It is illegal to misrepresent FDIC coverage, Bair said in the letter dated Aug. 5 and posted on the agency’s website yesterday.

U.S. life insurers have drawn fire from state and national elected officials since Bloomberg Markets magazine reported last month that more than 100 carriers profit by holding and investing $28 billion owed to life-insurance beneficiaries. Retained-asset accounts are backstopped by insurer guaranty associations in the event a carrier fails, according to MetLife Inc., the biggest U.S. life insurer, and the National Organization of Life & Health Insurance Guaranty Associations.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anLM10DLb9PI&pos=6

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A friend whose mother had died faced a situation in which he was limited to life insurance disbursements for two years. Any money left after two years would become property of the insurer. He carried an insurance company-issued checkbook writing checks like mad. I suspect this was not a rare circumstance.

[Dr.Phool]

25. MetLife puled that shit on my mothers policy.

My father had murder on his mind trying to deal with those people. Unfortunately, he has a policy on himself with them. And guess who is the representative for his estate, when he goes.

[ozymandius]

9. Road to Nowhere?

From The Big Picture:

While it’s interesting to see how the Fed statement changes from one meeting to the next, it’s also instructive to see how it changes over time. That said, let’s look at almost one year’s worth of commentary on the housing market and see how far we’ve come:

Sept. 23, 2009 (link is to all statements and minutes):

Conditions in financial markets have improved further, and activity in the housing sector has increased.

Nov. 4, 2009:

Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months.

Dec. 16, 2009:

The housing sector has shown some signs of improvement over recent months.

Mar. 16, 2010

However, investment in nonresidential structures is declining, housing starts have been flat at a depressed level, and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/road-to-nowhere/

[ozymandius]

10. Oh, please! Oh, please!

Coming Soon: Bank CEO Perp Walks, Jail Time

We have since learned that many TARP recipients, bailed out banks and other ne’er-do-wells were actively engaged in cooking their books. I don’t mean various FASB 157 permission to lie, and other legal but nefarious activities. I am referring to the 2002-2007 era of scams, frauds, and outright theft.

The public’s righteous indignation over the lack of just desserts for the perpetrators of these frauds has morphed since September 2008 into an unresolved, unfocused anger. When this all plays out, we might very well see bonus clawbacks, fines and penalties, disgorgement of ill gotten gains, and criminal arrests for some of the major names at the biggest brokerage houses.

Why do I think that 2 years later, some justice might be done? The truth is slowly coming out, as insiders provide testimony, release papers, and even offer up recordings of conversations to various investigators and prosecutors.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/08/coming-soon-bank-ceo-perp-walks-jail-time/

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This is Ritholtz writing this perp summary. He has very deep informational resources.

[ozymandius]

11. I hope your day is a fine one.

:donut: :donut: :donut: It's now time to prepare for work. Back in the evening. :hi:

[hamerfan]

12. Thanks, Ozy!

Have a great day yourself! :donut:

[florida08]

14. that would go a long way

in helping consumer confidence

[Demeter]

18. Ritholz's Conclusion Says It All

...I have long believed that the general anger of the public about the bailouts were about the inherent injustice in bailing out incompetent bankers who made tidy profits and huge bonuses through their own incompetence.

It turns out that this was more than mere incompetence, this was a malicious fraud, a full on intent to deceive the investing public in order to grab huge bonuses, economic consequences tot he nation be damned.

But the noose is slowly tightening. The FCIC has undercovered documented illegal behavior, while a newly revitalized SEC opens more cases.

In the post Sarbanes-Oxeley era, where CEOs signed off on their accounting statements and quarter earnings release, that calls for investigation, prosecution, confiscation — and jail time. As much as the public has been frustrated, they may very well see some justice soon . . .

[Warpy]

58. Unfortunately, it's gone on long enough

that quite a few of the architects of the debacle have taken the money and run offshore to mink lined retirements on their ill gotten gains. Much of the real money that was looted out of the system is gone forever along with the men who looted it, while all we have left are the Johnny come lately types whose money is based on thin air and wishful thinking instead of reality. Those are the guys who will also be left holding the legal bag if the government ever gets around to figuring out just what went on.

It needs to be brought home to Libertarian dreamers that this is the reality of their deregulatory paradise, that deregulation only serves to allow financial thieves to set up shop in the open, to allow them the air of legitimacy they need to bilk the maximum number of people, and to collapse any economy where their nonsense is tried.

Even the dumbest teabagging Republican out there has a hazy idea he's been had. Right now, he's just been a little too distracted by Pox News to bother connecting the dots, but eventually he's going to, probably shortly after he has his cable shut off because he can't afford it any more, leaving him time to brood about what's happened to him.

When that starts to happen, all hell's going to break loose.

[Ghost Dog]

64. Out while the going was good

They think.

[DemReadingDU]

20. Cooking their books, Shocking

:eyes:

[Po_d Mainiac]

28. There must be a future reality show to be made here! n/t

[Demeter]

32. No Thanks! The Last Thing I want to do is relive Last Decade

and I'm not sure I even want to live the next one the first time.

[Festivito]

15. Debt: 08/10/2010 13,319,830,936,991.03 (UP 8,580,709,528.16) (Tue)

(Up some. Good day.)
Slow day, yesterday, done at Children's Hospital.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,778,544,682,843.82 + 4,541,286,254,147.21
UP 1,721,061,315.43 + UP 6,859,648,212.73

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,227.34 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,852,547 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,987.64.
A family of three owes $128,962.93. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,477,219,841.00.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,199,201,878.10.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,936,751,760.72.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 215 reports in 314 days of FY2010 averaging 6.56B$ per report, 4.49B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 894 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/10/2010 13,319,830,936,991.03 BHO (UP 2,692,953,888,077.95 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,410,001,933,479.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,639,014,986,369.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/21/2010 +000,002,455,391.44 ------------******
07/22/2010 +010,637,573,043.16 ------------**********
07/23/2010 -000,409,271,286.12 ---
07/26/2010 +000,027,014,896.10 ------------******* Mon
07/27/2010 +000,542,206,084.16 ------------********
07/28/2010 -000,094,171,033.04 ----
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********

90,882,465,189.66 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4499941&mesg_id=4500004

[Festivito]

86. Debt: 08/11/2010 13,307,871,897,992.93 (DOWN 11,959,038,998.10) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)
A huge vault, no exit, standing water, putrid.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,778,639,712,764.28 + 4,529,232,185,228.65
UP 95,029,920.46 + DOWN 12,054,068,918.56

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,227.27 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,859,193 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,948.13.
A family of three owes $128,844.38. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 4,750,709,056.04.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,800,567,244.83.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,455,061,131.66.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 216 reports in 315 days of FY2010 averaging 6.47B$ per report, 4.44B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 893 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.5 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/11/2010 13,307,871,897,992.93 BHO (UP 2,680,994,849,079.85 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,398,042,894,481.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,619,954,465,033.77 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/22/2010 +010,637,573,043.16 ------------**********
07/23/2010 -000,409,271,286.12 ---
07/26/2010 +000,027,014,896.10 ------------******* Mon
07/27/2010 +000,542,206,084.16 ------------********
07/28/2010 -000,094,171,033.04 ----
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******

90,975,039,718.68 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4501081&mesg_id=4501128

[DemReadingDU]

16. Continuing from yesterday, 1st Amendment saga

If you missed from yesterday, here is the link that begins our saga, beginning at #49 for several postings
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4499941#4500153

So why are we being targeted by the mayor and police chief? This is the Reader's digest version...

We have been asking for Public Records, specifically about the police chief, best friend of the mayor. Many documents are missing from the chief's file, and obviously they don't want us to know why. We have the chief's file from his previous job, and it shows he is arrogant, rude, incompetent, and we believe similar info would be in his current file. Nothing.

All of the chief's reprimands, inter-office memos, performance reviews, it is all missing.

The chief had a suspect in his custody with a felony warrant for burglary, and the chief released this person into the community. Nothing about this in his file, but we have the dispatch transcript. Yet the chief arrests and jails my spouse for allegedly disrupting a meeting, for speaking on the topic of Free Speech!

So by not giving us Public Records, they have now gotten themselves into major lawsuit issues that will taint our Village for years to come.

[florida08]

23. missing records

corruption never changes it's habits. Releasing a thief sounds like returning a favor. Yeah..asking questions always falls in the realm of disruption..like health care reform..Karl Rove's book signing...9/11.

We have corruption in my county as well. Tax dollars being wasted..cronyism. But occasionally when citizens get enough they band together and call them on it. Have gotten a couple of councilmen removed because of it.

Godspeed your good work :-)

[DemReadingDU]

27. and probably 95% of people don't pay attention

They have no clue these things go on. That 5% who do pay attention, a minuscule percentage actually do anything by getting involved, speaking out, protesting, writing letters. It's no wonder corruption is as deep as it is throughout the country in every town, city, state.

I have siblings who spend dozens of hours per week on their hobbies and leisure time activities, telling me they wouldn't take the time to pursue such violations if they occurred to them. These are our basic rights and freedoms, and most people don't care to fight to keep them.

[Roland99]

31. Have you contacted local media?

Sounds like a grand story for those investigative reporter types.

[DemReadingDU]

35. yes, it's taking awhile

Our saga has been ongoing for a year. At first, the media thought spouse was just another upset resident complaining at the Council meetings. When he got arrested, now that's a story!

Just because the mayor doesn't like what someone is speaking about, the mayor cannot cutoff the speaker, unless the speaker talks longer than 5 minutes. And spouse was handcuffed and out the door in 2 1/2 minutes. His topic: 'Right of Free Speech and Association'.

[Roland99]

38. Sounds like something right out of a book but it's REAL LIFE

I wish you all the strength in the world to see this through to the just ending.

[DemReadingDU]

44. Thank you

The wheels of justice turn so slowly, things like this can take years. Maybe when the mayor and chief realize the legal liabilities they have put themselves in, they will both resign soon.

[Ghost Dog]

65. Take copious detailed synchronous notes

and write it up when the time is right. Bring in a committed documentary film-maker if possible.

[Hotler]

48. This Englewood Colo. citizen feels your pain.

You're not alone. Lots of City Councils around the country suck. Part of the problem is not enough of the citizens go to meetings and that's how stuff gets railroaded through under the people's noses.
Check out Englewood Citizens for Open government at www.englewoodcitizens.org they might be able to share their experiences with how to deal with your council.
Check out www.eyeonenglewood.com for stories about our city council.
Our city council has it's own personal hit squad in the form of their own code enforcement officer. Voice dissent or rub the grain the wrong way and you'll find a code violation on your door the next day.

[Tansy_Gold]

50. Thank you for that information, and welcome to SMW!

I always write for the lurkers as well as the regulars, and I love it when something here sparks a post from an unfamiliar name.

:hi:


TG, NTY

[Hotler]

59. Thanks TG

I'm here everyday. SMW is my favorite read. I'd post more but I would be repeating how you and the others feel about the screwing we're getting. It's hard to describe how far, wide and deep the corruption and greed is in this country. I think it starts at the grass roots level. One of the ways to get a hold on the crap that goes on in Washington is to nip it in the bud at the city council level. A few years back I was escorted out of a council meeting after I lost my cool and called them all "a bunch of cock suckers". as soon as I said it I new I should be heading to the door. A police offocer walked me out. As soon as we gat outside he started laughing and said "that was a beautiful thing."

[DemReadingDU]

53. Thank you for the links

Nice citizens blog. I'll do some more reading there. Community activists appear to be everywhere.

[Warpy]

60. Please stop trying to do this alone

You need a lawyer yesterday, preferably one from outside the county and preferably one who works with the ACLU and is aware of the issues.

Trying to do this stuff alone can get dangerous to your house, your health, and even your life. These men protect themselves with everything they've got.

[MattSh]

17. I see...

the don't worry, be happy unrec brigade is out in force this morning.

[bread_and_roses]

40. Thanks - reminded me to hit the "R" button

before I'm off for the day.

[DemReadingDU]

21. TARP Panel Says France, Germany Were Aided by U.S. Government's AIG Rescue

8/12/10 TARP Panel Says France, Germany Were Aided by U.S. Government's AIG Rescue

France and Germany reaped the benefits of the U.S. government’s rescue of American International Group Inc. without sharing any financial risk, according to a committee led by Elizabeth Warren, a Harvard University law professor.

The Congressional Oversight Panel, created to monitor the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program, said in a report released today that the U.S. Treasury Department should have gathered more information about how its financial-industry rescue efforts would spread overseas. The report said the Treasury could have used such information to consider ways to collaborate with regulators in other countries.

“France and Germany were among the greatest beneficiaries of AIG’s rescue, yet the U.S. government bore the entire $70 billion risk of the AIG capital injection program,” the report said. “The U.S. share of this single rescue exceeded the size of France’s entire $35 billion capital injection program and was nearly half the size of Germany’s $133 billion program.”

Warren’s panel called for more international cooperating on monitoring financial-system risks and planning ways to dismantle a firm whose collapse could threaten global markets. “A future crisis could swamp the ability of smaller nations with large banking sectors to respond in absence of an international regime,” the report said.

“America’s rescue had a much greater impact on other nations than their rescue programs had on the United States,” Warren said yesterday on a conference call with reporters. She recommended international “war-gaming” efforts to plan future crisis response strategies.

Warren, 61, said her panel’s last report will be published in March 2011. In September, the panel is scheduled to report on the broad impact of TARP, as the Treasury Department winds down the rescue efforts.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-12/tarp-panel-says-france-germany-were-aided-by-u-s-government-s-aig-rescue.html

[Karenina]

61. "Warren, 61, said her panel’s last report will be..."

Excuse me?

(An arch look from Tante K. :wtf: )

[Hissyspit]

26. GM posts $1.33B profit in sign of growing strength

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fiw-gm-earnings-20100812,0,2389126.story

[Roland99]

29. Futures: "Why don't you slide...."

S&P 500 1,075 -10.00 -0.92%
DOW 10,263 -74.00 -0.72%
NASDAQ 1,820 -17.50 -0.95%

[Dr.Phool]

33. New jobless claims rise to highest level since February.

WASHINGTON — Initial requests for jobless benefits rose again last week to the highest level since February — a sign that hiring remains weak and some companies are still cutting workers.

The number of new claims for jobless benefits rose 2,000 to 484,000 in the week ended August 7, the second straight increase, Labor Department data showed on Thursday.

The four-week moving average, which economists prefer because it smoothes out weekly fluctuations, rose 14,250 to 473,500, also the highest level since the week ended February 20.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected claims in the latest week to fall to 465,000 from the previously reported 479,000.

The number of people still collecting unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid in the week ended July 31 fell 118,000 to 4.45 million, the lowest level since late June. Economists had expected 4.53 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims fell 64,500 to 4.52 million, the lowest level since December 2008.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38673061/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/

[Demeter]

42. Thar She Blows!

Another down day. 100 points in 4 minutes.

If they hadn't pumped it up so much, it probably wouldn't be dropping so fast and so much.

[Roland99]

43. program trading buying low and bringing it up a notch?

[Demeter]

46. I Don't Think So

It's August.

I think the PTB are out of bullets.

Consider that Sheila only shut down one bank last weekend, and a small one at that. Consider that Gates is talking of cutting down the military budget.

Consider that the govt. fiscal year ends in October. Consider that Geithner got religion suddenly.

Consider that Obama is pouting and whining about the lack of jobs, while Michelle takes the kids to Marbella on his birthday.

I think the shit has really hit the fan at last.

[Tansy_Gold]

47. About the you know what hitting the you know what. . .

We can only. . . . hope.

[Demeter]

49. For change we can believe in?

[Tansy_Gold]

52. Yeah. Exactly.

We need a much bigger :sarcasm: thingy, and a much smaller :nopity:

[Roland99]

66. and i need to avoid GD for a while

the denial over there is maddening.

[Dr.Phool]

68. If it wasn't for SMW, I'd ditch the whole place altogether.

[Tansy_Gold]

73. Ditto Ditto

I'd sure as hell miss you folks!

:grouphug:

[Hawkowl]

80. +100 nt

[Demeter]

85. All of the above

[Warpy]

76. The one I've avoided is Economy

because that's where to find the real happy talking and denial. People who bring up Roubini and other gloomy Guses (except, inexplicably, Krugman) are nailed for fringe sources and trying to subvert the entire economy via an obscure and dusty corner of a small internet site.

If it's improved from that sorry state in the last year, let me know, but I'm not holding my breath in the meantime.

It's where most of my ignore list came from. Then I gave up.

[Ghost Dog]

55. Well, the thing about one's "girl" organising a party elsewhere,

without you, on your birthday, could tend to make one reflect, somewhat...

Not to mention all the other factors, too.

"Radio Free America". That's a good one. Considering what "Radio Free Europe" used to represent.

But I know exactly, I think, (most of us have plenty of ancestral experience to count on, over here) what you mean.

:hug: :evilgrin:

[Dr.Phool]

54. Denningers on a roll this morning. Screw Pimco! Up yours Washington!

http://market-ticker.org/

[fasttense]

72. Just Kicking and Recommending to befuddle those un-rec. goons. n/t

[TalkingDog]

74. Nothing Grows Forever (TD except cancer and even that's a self solving problem)

http://motherjones.com/politics/2010/05/peter-victor-deficit-growth

Then he tweaked it so that crucial elements—including consumption, productivity, and population—gradually stopped growing after 2010. To stave off unemployment, he shortened the workweek to roughly four days, creating more jobs. He also set up higher taxes on the rich and more public services for the poor, and imposed a carbon tax to fill government coffers and discourage the use of fossil fuels. The upshot? It took a couple of decades, but unemployment eventually fell to 4 percent, most people's standards of living actually rose, and greenhouse gas emissions decreased to well below Kyoto levels.


I had somebody read this and they asked why anybody would hire more people.... and here's my reply:

If everybody works four days a week, (which was proposed in the first Great Depression) Then there will (seemingly counter-intuitively) be a larger number of jobs. It was shown, even then, that civic participation and community bonding increase in those circumstances. But for those in "authority" having large groups of people deciding they can "do" for themselves, is not necessarily a good thing for a system that owes it's existence to dependency.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

79. Incense says: Pretty good, considering.

[Demeter]

81. 39 Recommendations, Net

A new record! Congrats, Ozy! The word is getting out!

I hope that burns some un-reccers' pancakes.

[ozymandius]

83. 41 as of this post. Dang!

This thread has not seen so much love in all these many years.

[Demeter]

84. Have to set a new goal now