STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday August 19

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday August 19, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 18, 2010

Dow... 10,415.54 +9.69 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq... 2,215.70 +6.26 (+0.28%)
S&P 500... 1,094.16 +1.62 (+0.15%)
Gold future... 1,232 +0.20 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.66 +0.02 (+0.68%)
30-Year Bond 3.74 +0.00 (+0.11%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 08/14
Briefing.com 470K
Consensus 475K
Prior 484K

08:30 Continuing Claims 08/07
Briefing.com 4500K
Consensus 4500K
Prior 4452K

10:00 Leading Indicators Jul
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.2%
Prior -0.2%

10:00 Philadelphia Fed Aug
Briefing.com 8.0
Consensus 7.5
Prior 5.10

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[SarahB]

19. Initial claims 500K, Continuing 4478K.

Last week's numbers all revised up.

No one could have predicted that! :eyes:

[Dr.Phool]

21. They were really off the mark on that one.

Whokuddathunkit?

[Roland99]

28. Leading indicators show slowing U.S. growth

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/leading-indicators-show-slowing-us-growth-2010-08-19

The U.S. economy looks set to grow at a slower pace than earlier this year, the Conference Board said on Thursday as it reported its leading economic index rose 0.1% in July. The index is essentially flat since March, the Conference Board added, though it's still well above pre-recession levels. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a 0.2% advance. The leading economic index fell 0.3% in June and grew 0.5% in May.

[Roland99]

29. Aug. Philly Fed well below consensus 7.0

[ozymandius]

2. Oil hovers above $75 amid tepid US economy

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered above $75 a barrel Thursday in Asia amid investor concerns U.S. economic growth will slow in the second half and stymie demand for crude.

Benchmark crude for September delivery rose 10 cents to $75.54 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract lost 35 cents to settle at $75.42 on Wednesday.

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that crude supplies fell less than expected last week as demand remained sluggish.

Analysts are closely watching how a reduction of U.S. stimulus spending in the second half and next year could undermine economic growth. China, which has seen energy demand soar this year, may move to tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation and asset price bubbles.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Homeowner confidence fell in second quarter: Zillow

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Homeowners were less confident about the value of their homes in the second quarter, with one-third believing home prices had not yet reached a bottom, real estate website Zillow.com said on Thursday.

Nevertheless, a significant number of homeowners said they planned to put their home up for sale in the next six months if they saw signs of a real estate market turnaround.

Homeowners were more pessimistic about the short-term future of home values in their local market than they had been in the previous three quarters, according to the Zillow Second Quarter Homeowner Confidence Survey.

Looking further into the future, however, 27 percent of homeowners believed their own homes' values would increase in the next 12 months, 35 percent believed they will stay the same, 12 percent expected a decrease and 26 percent did not know.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100819/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing

[ozymandius]

5. Home refinancing demand at highest in 15 months

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. mortgage applications leaped last week as rock-bottom interest rates lifted demand for home refinancing to its highest level in 15 months, a development that could portend stronger economic growth.

Home loan refinancing puts extra cash into consumers' hands that can be used to pay off existing debt or funnel money into the economy through extra spending.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said on Wednesday its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week ended August 13, increased 13.0 percent. The four-week moving average of mortgage applications, which smoothes the volatile weekly figures, was up 2.6 percent.

The MBA said borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 4.60 percent, up 0.03 percentage point from the previous week's record low. The survey has been conducted weekly since 1990. Mortgage rates were also below their year-ago level of 5.15 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100818/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_mortgages

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That is a smart step with mortgage rates lower than they have been in nearly sixty years. Nice rate if you can get it.

[Po_d Mainiac]

11. CONGRESS PASSES WIDE-RANGING BILL EASING BANK LAWS

Published: November 5, 1999…..Read it and weep
snip
The measure, considered by many the most important banking legislation in 66 years, was approved in the Senate by a vote of 90 to 8 and in the House tonight by 362 to 57. The bill will now be sent to the president, who is expected to sign it, aides said. It would become one of the most significant achievements this year by the White House and the Republicans leading the 106th Congress.
snip
The concerns that we will have a meltdown like 1929 are dramatically "overblown," said Senator Bob Kerrey, Democrat of Nebraska.
Others said the legislation was essential for the future leadership of the American banking system.
snip
"If we don't pass this bill, we could find London or Frankfurt or years down the road Shanghai becoming the financial capital of the world," said Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York. "There are many reasons for this bill, but first and foremost is to ensure that U.S. financial firms remain competitive."

http://www.nytimes.com/1999/11/05/business/congress-passes-wide-ranging-bill-easing-bank-laws.html?scp=6&sq=&st=nyt&pagewanted=1

[Demeter]

34. Irony! What a Bitter Fruit!

Nice find, Mr. Mainiac! For the record, I think the politicians got bad advice.
Trouble is, they are still talking to the same people for advice today.

[ozymandius]

4. So I wandered into Jonestown...

And found an interesting table-pounding perspective on the state of Social Security. Oy vey...

[JNelson6563]

13. That's cluelessness, right there.

GD = Jonestown? Hilarious!! Ah, my beloved, wickedly witty Marketeers! :toast:

I hope it's all good in your world dear.

Julie

[UpInArms]

17. ack!

I do believe I have a hairball in my eyes!

The numbers are irrelevant as I can pick a day when T-bills closed at 8%. So what. It is the historical average, adn the poin that the government refuses to pay one creditor (the folks paying in to SS) wha they pay another creditor (the older of a T-Bill). Over history, they average 5% and SS averages 2.5%.

[Roland99]

23. don't hold your breath waiting for any kind of response other than

blah blah blah ponzi blah blah ponzi blah ponzi

[florida08]

27. oy vey again

Bernie Madoff runs the SSA? Aren't you suppose to get much higher returns in a ponzi? Not to mention 75 years is a long time to have a successful one. I think Madoff's began in the 90's but some suspect maybe even the late 80's. Have heard this diddy before. Some just don't believe the government can run anything successfully..and when it's republican government I would agree. I like what Krugman said about it.

Meanwhile, an aging population will eventually (over the course of the next 20 years) cause the cost of paying Social Security benefits to rise from its current 4.8 percent of G.D.P. to about 6 percent of G.D.P. To give you some perspective, that’s a significantly smaller increase than the rise in defense spending since 2001, which Washington certainly didn’t consider a crisis, or even a reason to rethink some of the Bush tax cuts.

So where do claims of crisis come from? To a large extent they rely on bad-faith accounting. In particular, they rely on an exercise in three-card monte in which the surpluses Social Security has been running for a quarter-century don’t count — because hey, the program doesn’t have any independent existence; it’s just part of the general federal budget — while future Social Security deficits are unacceptable — because hey, the program has to stand on its own....

And having invented a crisis, what do Social Security’s attackers want to do? They don’t propose cutting benefits to current retirees; invariably the plan is, instead, to cut benefits many years in the future. So think about it this way: In order to avoid the possibility of future benefit cuts, we must cut future benefits. O.K.

[MilesColtrane]

33. It's uncanny.

Some folks think alike and even use the same meme.

What are the odds!?

[Demeter]

35. It's Frightening To See the Amount of RW Baloney on this Site Over SS

It is encouraging that the issue is being looked at.

I only hope that some factual information finally penetrates the propaganda fog.

[tclambert]

37. Well, now, I can see the Ponzi parallel, except Social Security works really well.

Benefits are paid from the contributions of new "investors" who aren't yet receiving benefits.

But SS achieves its key goal, with low adminsistrative overhead, and it has its own taxation system, which has run with no deficit (and a pretty hefty surplus) for 75 years. That's a damn fine program.

Here's a question: How much economic stimulus do we get for every dollar spent on SS benefits? Is it $1.63? I forget. That means many of the people who pay Social Security taxes only have jobs because of Social Security (especially in Florida and Arizona).

[ozymandius]

43. A ponzi that works for 75 years is worthy of a Nobel.

That 'low administrative overhead' you mention would not exist under a privatized system. On further consideration - a privatized system like SS would receive shun and ridicule among its 'retirement fund' peers.

[tclambert]

50. I think it might be possible to keep a Ponzi scheme going indefinitely

IF you keep the payout low enough. Returns of 20% per year raises alarms and requires rapidly increasing your client recruitment. 10% per year not so much.

[ozymandius]

6. This message approved by the American Chamber of Commerce

Regulatory tensions dragging on US economy: NYSE chief

SAO PAULO (AFP) – Efforts by the Obama administration to overhaul the US health, financial and energy sectors risk undermining a fragile economic recovery, the head of the New York Stock Exchange said Wednesday.

Duncan Niederauer, the chief executive of the world's largest stock exchange, told Brazilian business leaders in Sao Paulo that the US economy would be doing much better without the regulatory uncertainty.

The return of corporate profits, along with big cash stockpiles, low and stable interest rates and nil risk of inflation in the near-term mean the US equities market is "poised to go higher," he said.

So why are markets not soaring?

"Until the administration's attitude towards business and the response from business is a lot more constructive on both sides, I think that's creating a bit of an offsetting counterweight to all those positive things" underpinning the US recovery, he said.

You see? All that regulation and uncertainty will make paupers of us all. :eyes:

[ozymandius]

7. Stocks Rebound as U.K. Deficit Narrows; Pound, Ringgit Rally

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks rebounded and the pound strengthened after Britain’s deficit narrowed and retail sales rose. The Malaysian ringgit appreciated to a 13-year high, while U.S. index futures were little changed.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.2 percent at 10:50 a.m. in London, after earlier falling 0.4 percent. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 0.1 percent. The ringgit rallied 0.7 percent against the dollar, and the pound gained 0.5 percent against the euro. Wheat climbed 2.2 percent.

Figures from the Labor Department at 8:30 a.m. in Washington may show initial jobless claims fell to 478,000 last week from 484,000 the prior week, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The Fed Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index rose to 7.2 from a July reading of 5.1, economists said before the 10 a.m. release. The Conference Board’s gauge of the outlook for the next three to six months rose 0.1 percent after falling 0.2 percent in June, according to economists. The report is also due at 10 a.m.

The U.S. government will say today it plans to sell $102 billion of two-, five- and seven-year notes next week, the smallest monthly offering of the combination since May 2009, according to a survey of primary dealers, who are required to bid at the auctions.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDj3XPOsBNhY&pos=3

[ozymandius]

8. SEC’s New Jersey Fraud Case Seen as Harbinger in Muni Crackdown

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission’s fraud case against New Jersey may presage a wave of lawsuits seeking to crack down on misdeeds by public officials who raise money in the $2.8 trillion municipal bond market.

New Jersey yesterday settled claims it didn’t disclose to investors that it failed to put enough cash into its two biggest pension plans when it sold $26 billion of bonds from 2001 to 2007. The case is the first SEC fraud charge against a state and follows the creation of a unit set up this year to focus on municipal securities and pension funds.

The New Jersey case began in 2007 after the New York Times published a critical report on the state’s pension accounting. The SEC found the state masked years of pension underfunding by failing to inform investors that $704 million listed as pension payments in documents for 79 bond sales from 2001 to 2007 were actually transfers of money already in the retirement system.

The state also failed to disclose a $2.4 billion loss in the value of pension fund assets in 2001, the SEC said, which “created the false impression” that the Teachers’ Pension and Annuity Fund and the Public Employees’ Retirement System were adequately funded.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=as93CJqodRnI&pos=7

[Tansy_Gold]

20. Ugh, another one I'll have to start following

Daughter and son-in-law work for the public schools in NJ. She almost got laid off due to "budget errors" this summer -- what a piece of work Christie is. And she wanted to move to NJ because it wasn't as corrupt as Arizona. . . . . . . .



TG, NTY

[amandabeech]

24. That says a lot about Arizona.

I used to live in Hudson County, NJ, formerly represented in Congress by the Hon. Bob Menendez.

It was right up there with such traditional sink holes of corruption as Chicago and Louisiana.

[Dr.Phool]

26. NJ not as corrupt as Arizona?

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

I know some of the southern states, like Florida, are pretty corrupt, but I think New Jersey holds seminars to teach them how.

[DemReadingDU]

31. Even my little village in Ohio is corrupt

Fraud and corruption are everywhere

[Tansy_Gold]

39. I grew up in the Chicago suburbs

It's not like political corruption is a shocker to me.

:rofl: indeed!

:hi:

And of course with all the goings on here lately with Sheriff Joe and his puppydog Sheriff BooBoo (Paul Babeu, Pinal County), it's become even more interesting. Sheesh. Deputy on paid leave for over a year, IA investigations out the wazoo, she finally threatens to file $1.75MM lawsuit and miraculously she's back to active duty in mere days.

Oh, yes, Arizona is such fun in the sun!


TG,NTY

[ozymandius]

9. Tax Cut Changes (when the Bush tax cuts expire)

See the chart at the top of the page

This chart is pretty stark in terms of who gets hit the hardest in the expiration of the Bush Tax cuts.

The article adds a little color noting the following changes:

-If you make $382,650 you’ll owe an extra $4,095 in income tax.
-Single filers with $500,000 in taxable income would owe Uncle Sam an additional $9,492 from this year’s tax bill.
-Joint filers with taxable income of $700,000 would owe an extra $17,088
-$1 million dollars in taxable income = $32,493 more

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More information here...

[Po_d Mainiac]

22. In eye candy form

[tclambert]

38. I love that chart.

[ozymandius]

10. Slow morning. But one unreccer ("howdy!") is already awake.

Time for me to prepare for another day at school. So I wish you all a wonderful rest of your morning and a fine day too. :donut: :donut: :donut:



:hi:

[Lochloosa]

12. I got your back ozy...

[ozymandius]

47. Thank you.

I very much appreciate your efforts to keep this well-intentioned thread afloat. :toast:

[Dr.Phool]

14. The Hindenberg Omen creator. Blind sharpshooter, inventor.

Local blind market watcher created Hindenburg Omen so investors can see downturns ahead

By Robert Trigaux, Times Business Columnist
In Print: Thursday, August 19, 2010


Hindenburg Omen. It's not the catchy title of the latest bestselling thriller. But CNBC is abuzz with the phrase, the Wall Street Journal recently mentioned its ominous appearance, and stock market newsletters are stumbling over one another trying to explain the effect to long-jittery stock investors.

The Hindenburg Omen crunches technical factors that can portend a significant drop in the stock market.

It's also a financial tool developed in the 1990s by former physics teacher Jim Miekka, 50, who lives in Homosassa much of the year, publishes the stock market newsletter Sudbury Bull & Bear Report from St. Petersburg and, in his personal moments, is an accomplished inventor and rifle marksman.

Miekka is also blind. And his suddenly pertinent investment indicator is now predicting a market meltdown in latter September.

"I have already sold out of the market," said Miekka, an obvious believer in his Omen invention.

(snip)more

http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/markets/article1116060.ece
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sounds like an incredible guy. He's up in Hommassassa, about 60 miles north of me. We go up and swim with the manatees there. And they have this really cool bar on the river with a little island with a bunch of monkeys on it.

[Po_d Mainiac]

18. Blind guy punches holes in targets

http://www.wabi.tv/news/7156/target-shooting-for-the-blind

[Paulie]

25. Interesting guy - horrible "signal"

"While the Hindenburg Omen has been behind every market crash since 1987, it's not foolproof. It has also popped up when no significant market downturns have taken place."

Yeah, its record is 25% in correctly signaling a crash, aka it's wrong 75% of the time when it does signal a crash. Might work better as a contra-indicator. :D

Morning everyone!

[Tansy_Gold]

40. Seriously

Would it be possible to concoct a totally phony "omen" and peddle it to the media and see what happens?

Or has that already been done, many times over?


Just kidding, sort of.

[ozymandius]

42. Ideas have been sold many times but that does not mean the market's dry.

Just a suggestion. Maybe we could promote one of the crackpot ideas from Jonestown and claim it came from an authority at the Club for Growth. I would pay money to see/hear them deny it.

[DemReadingDU]

44. Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1

8/19/10
Today we got our first Hindenburg Omen confirmation. The number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69 (per the traditional WSJ source). Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 is precisely on the borderline for confirmation (the 2.2%), and the new highs number was not more than double the new lows (although it was close).

Less gating were the McClellan oscillator which was negative at -83.6, and the 10 week MVA, which rose, which were the two remaining conditions. The first omen was spotted on August 12 - a week later the H.O has been confirmed. The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective, not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy (like every other technical indicator).

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hindenburg-omen-confirmation-1

edit to correct date to 8/19/10
:blush:

Thanks Tansy!

[Tansy_Gold]

46. Is that date correct, DRDU?

8/10/10 or should it be 8/19/10?


On the other hand --

I'm thinking though, that the TSQ hit .556 Monday and hasn't dropped below .550 since. That's pretty close to the Hindenberg "high" level of .560. If the TSQ remains above .550 for a week, which it looks like it's going to, would that be significant, or would it have to actually go to .560?

I mean, it's not like I really care. I don't have anything in the stock market at all, but I still think the only way to purge this economy is for a crash. The uber rich are not going to disgorge their ill-gotten wealth voluntarily, and there's no tax structure to relieve them of it over time, so the only way to prevent wholesale FRSPs, seems to me, is a major stock market "realignment."

The derivative dominoes don't appear to be tumbling the way they were when AIG almost bit the dust, but maybe the Hindenberg TSQ or even the Rochelin Value/Torque Ratio (which supposedly was all the way down to 258.4 last week) are indicative of something really and truly about to hit the fan??

But what do I know?


TG, MTU but NTY

[DemReadingDU]

48. Maybe the Hindy is warning us

or maybe not. Someday, the markets are going down, way down.
Spouse's license plate is DOW 2929. Nah, not exactly those numbers, but close!

I thing it's another omen.

[Po_d Mainiac]

49. Everybody has a stake in the market

It's the basis behind the whole US economy.

But the main requirement for the system to function is fair and open disclosure by both corporate accounting and the investment community (The ultimate owners of listed corporations).....We're watching what happens after RE left the reservation as accounting and investors gamed the tables.

The exchanges are also broken. Trading is no longer based on fundamentals and open accounting. If/when the stock markets do the RE crash dance, the fallout could be severe.

Look around and see what you use and purchase daily that doesn't pass through the hands of exchange listed companies. Now imagine life without them...That is not something that mankind hasn't experienced before..It was called the 'stone age"
YMMV

[boomerbust]

15. Watching Dick Armey on CNBC

This fat pig has all the same answers to every ill this country faces. Tax cuts and privatize SS.

[Festivito]

16. Debt: 08/17/2010 13,364,739,861,340.53 (UP 7,745,672,999.09) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Survived a look up between the buttocks. Working off the effects now.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,825,395,074,863.64 + 4,539,344,786,476.89
UP 86,946,367.61 + UP 7,658,726,631.48

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,226.86 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,899,070 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,126.11.
A family of three owes $129,378.32. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 5,427,656,821.30.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,161,203,562.99.
The average for the last 32 days would be 3,901,128,340.31.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 220 reports in 321 days of FY2010 averaging 6.61B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 887 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/17/2010 13,364,739,861,340.53 BHO (UP 2,737,862,812,427.45 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,454,910,857,828.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,654,337,891,300.66 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/28/2010 -000,094,171,033.04 ----
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******

126,932,879,080.74 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4507857&mesg_id=4507869

[Festivito]

51. Debt: 08/18/2010 13,353,801,011,553.95 (DOWN 10,938,849,786.58) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Back to the children's hospital to find just how clean it is.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,825,609,393,931.48 + 4,528,191,617,622.47
UP 214,319,067.84 + DOWN 11,153,168,854.42

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 310-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,226.79 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.68, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,905,716 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $43,089.88.
A family of three owes $129,269.65. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 4,745,719,045.97.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,796,575,236.77.
The average for the last 33 days would be 3,451,432,033.43.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 221 reports in 322 days of FY2010 averaging 6.53B$ per report, 4.48B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 886 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/18/2010 13,353,801,011,553.95 BHO (UP 2,726,923,962,640.87 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,443,972,008,042.20 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,636,800,568,122.37 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/29/2010 +003,752,718,531.15 ------------*********
07/30/2010 +000,337,023,124.63 ------------********
08/02/2010 +069,233,337,488.16 ------------********** Mon
08/03/2010 -000,228,970,360.68 ---
08/04/2010 +000,329,380,791.87 ------------********
08/05/2010 +005,243,790,680.65 ------------*********
08/06/2010 +000,053,282,619.67 ------------*******
08/09/2010 -000,264,966,096.92 --- Mon
08/10/2010 +001,721,061,315.43 ------------*********
08/11/2010 +000,095,029,920.46 ------------*******
08/12/2010 +008,430,031,924.23 ------------*********
08/13/2010 -000,288,829,216.29 ---
08/16/2010 +038,527,213,023.81 ------------********** Mon
08/17/2010 +000,086,946,367.61 ------------*******
08/18/2010 +000,214,319,067.84 ------------********

127,241,369,181.62 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4509498&mesg_id=4509567

[Roland99]

30. CBO sees budget deficit at $1.3 trillion in 2010

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cbo-sees-budget-deficit-at-13-trillion-in-2010-2010-08-19

The U.S. federal budget deficit will exceed $1.3 trillion in 2010, the Congressional Budget Office estimated Thursday. The amount is $71 billion below last year's total and $27 billion lower than the amount the CBO projected in March 2010, when it issued its previous estimate

[DemReadingDU]

45. Florida avatar!

Just noticed.
:)

[Roland99]

52. hehe

:)


yeah...figured it was time start representin', esp. since it's almost time to cast my vote for Mr. Alan Grayson!!

[MilesColtrane]

32. Investors "shocked" that giant corporation makes amoral offer.

Novartis is lowballing minority shareholders (and employees) of Alcon, well....just because it can.

It is also shocking that scorpions sting and sharks attack.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/08/18/news/companies/novartis_alcon_shareholders.fortune/index.htm

The Novartis-Alcon merger is a total departure from traditional merger activity because Novartis is offering Alcon's (ACL) minority shareholders far less than it's paying the majority owner, Nestle. And not a little less either. The gap is an astounding $40 per share. Novartis is paying a rich $182 per share to Nestle versus a lowball offer of around $142 to Alcon's public shareholders. If it succeeds in squeezing out the minority at a gaping discount, Novartis will get an almost $3 billion break on its purchase.

To save all that cash,Novartis (NVS) is brazenly and unapologetically exploiting a transatlantic loophole in merger law that's got investors from AXA of France to U.S. hedge funds, and corporate governance advisors such as Glass Lewis, in an uproar. At the Monday meeting, Novartis moved closer to its goal by electing its own slate of five board members, whose votes, it says, will seal the deal, and the fate of the minority. "I've never witnessed anything like this in 20 years as an investor," says Shane Finemore, chief of Manikay Partners, a $550 million New York investment management firm with a large holding of Alcon shares. "Novartis is being incredibly hostile to Alcon shareholders."

Finemore's shock is understandable, and widespread. According to the M&A experts Fortune consulted, no purchaser in decades, in any major deal, has managed, or even seriously attempted, to buy out minority investors for less than it's paying the primary shareholder.

[Roland99]

41. There's a first for everything.

[MARALE]

36. kick

Had to scroll to the bottom to read this...