STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday October 21

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday October 21, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 20, 2010

Dow 11,107.97 +129.35 (+1.16%)
Nasdaq 2,457.39 +20.44 (+0.83%)
S&P 500 1,178.17 +12.27 (+1.04%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.49 +0.01 (+0.20%)
30-Year Bond 3.89 -0.01 (-0.13%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
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Handy Links - Videos:
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    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Festivito]

1. Debt: 10/19/2010 13,676,109,536,322.09 (UP 7,215,063,228.67) (Tue)

(Up a little. Good day.)
Weird night. The mom was here and the kids did not come. Good ice cream though.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,060,556,124,903.72 + 4,615,553,411,418.37
UP 443,038,294.93 + UP 6,772,024,933.74

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,220.45 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.66, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,515,392 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,043.26.
A family of three owes $132,129.77. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 9,471,102,997.24.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,945,475,531.31.
The average for the last 32 days would be 6,511,383,310.60.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 263 reports in 384 days of FY2011 averaging 6.72B$ per report, 4.60B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 824 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.8 and 19.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/19/2010 13,676,109,536,322.09 BHO (UP 3,049,232,487,409.01 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,114,486,505,430.30 ------------* * BHO
Endof11 +31,731,832,631,247.40 ------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | per 1B Too much to predict at this time.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/28/2010 +001,463,391,855.14 ------------*********
09/29/2010 +000,391,315,850.35 ------------********
09/30/2010 +058,907,978,013.89 ------------**********
10/01/2010 -005,585,417,177.51 --
10/04/2010 +000,259,208,393.70 ------------******** Mon
10/05/2010 +000,697,809,032.26 ------------********
10/06/2010 +000,102,633,566.23 ------------********
10/07/2010 -010,581,200,428.89 -
10/08/2010 -000,047,594,597.51 ----
10/12/2010 -002,308,905,840.19 -- Tue
10/13/2010 +004,079,531,881.58 ------------*********
10/14/2010 -003,450,466,367.69 --
10/15/2010 +053,297,374,376.50 ------------**********
10/18/2010 +000,841,690,317.23 ------------******** Mon
10/19/2010 +000,443,038,294.93 ------------********

98,510,387,170.02 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4580790&mesg_id=4580880

[Festivito]

40. Debt: 10/20/2010 13,667,947,376,827.80 (DOWN 8,162,159,494.29) (Wed)

(Up some. Good day.)
Sparta had a bad assisstant sheriff, Ricky Lyall?, now in jail, not before having a father of nine plea for life without parole to his first ever charge of sexual contact with a minor with no physical evidence. Hmmm.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,061,886,738,056.66 + 4,606,060,638,771.14
UP 1,330,613,152.94 + DOWN 9,492,772,647.23

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.22 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,220.38 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.66, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 310,522,592 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $44,015.95.
A family of three owes $132,047.85. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 9,027,496,304.26.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,620,163,956.46.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 264 reports in 385 days of FY2011 averaging 6.66B$ per report, 4.57B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 823 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.8 and 19.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/20/2010 13,667,947,376,827.80 BHO (UP 3,041,070,327,914.72 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,106,324,345,936.10 ------------* * BHO
Endof11 +30,145,240,999,685.00 ------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | per 1B Too much to predict at this time.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/29/2010 +000,391,315,850.35 ------------********
09/30/2010 +058,907,978,013.89 ------------**********
10/01/2010 -005,585,417,177.51 --
10/04/2010 +000,259,208,393.70 ------------******** Mon
10/05/2010 +000,697,809,032.26 ------------********
10/06/2010 +000,102,633,566.23 ------------********
10/07/2010 -010,581,200,428.89 -
10/08/2010 -000,047,594,597.51 ----
10/12/2010 -002,308,905,840.19 -- Tue
10/13/2010 +004,079,531,881.58 ------------*********
10/14/2010 -003,450,466,367.69 --
10/15/2010 +053,297,374,376.50 ------------**********
10/18/2010 +000,841,690,317.23 ------------******** Mon
10/19/2010 +000,443,038,294.93 ------------********
10/20/2010 +001,330,613,152.94 ------------*********

98,377,608,467.82 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4582268&mesg_id=4582271

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 10/16
Briefing.com 450K
Consensus 455K
Prior 462K

08:30 Continuing Claims 10/09
Briefing.com 4450K
Consensus 4400K
Prior 4399K

10:00 Leading Indicators Sep
Briefing.com 0.3%
Consensus 0.3%
Prior 0.3%

10:00 Philadelphia Fed Oct
Briefing.com 1.5
Consensus 1.4
Prior -0.7

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Roland99]

26. Smorgasboard of highlights....

Oct. Philly Fed index below consensus 1.4
U.S. Oct. Philly Fed index 1.0 vs - 0.7 in Sept.

Sept. leading economic index climbs 0.3%

U.S. weekly jobless-benefits claims fall by 23,000

[ozymandius]

3. Oil falls to near $82 as US dollar strengthens

SINGAPORE – Oil prices fell to near $82 a barrel Thursday in Asia as a stronger U.S. currency weighed on crude by making dollar-based commodities more expensive for investors with other currencies.

Crude's fall was tempered by optimism U.S. oil demand may be improving. The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said Wednesday commercial crude inventories rose less than analysts expected, adding 700,000 barrels.

In other Nymex trading in November contracts, heating oil fell 1.23 cents to $2.243 a gallon and gasoline was steady at $2.082 a gallon. Natural gas slid 1.9 cents to $3.520 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. US economy grows at 'modest' pace: Federal Reserve

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The US economy is expanding modestly but job prospects remain dim, the Federal Reserve has said in a report seen as unlikely to change anticipation of a new stimulus.

In the Beige Book report on current economic conditions, the central bank painted, if not an upbeat picture of the economy, one better than the previous assessment that had warned the recovery was slowing.

The Beige Book is compiled from anecdotal information nationwide and published eight times a year. The latest report will be used as a reference by Fed policymakers at their November 2-3 meeting.

Expectations are high that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) headed by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will restart major asset purchases, or quantitative easing, next month to boost growth.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101021/ts_alt_afp/useconomybank

---

I am curious about the discussions among the Fed board members. Does anyone ever identify previous QE efforts with unfulfilled objectives?

[ozymandius]

5. Dollar firm on Geithner comment, stocks struggle

While I, personally, would not believe a word Geithner says (not even "hello") there are those who cling to dear life with his every syllable.

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar rose on Thursday after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said ahead of a G20 meeting that major currencies were roughly in alignment, initially offering support to Japanese stocks.

However, Tokyo shares reversed course by the close as the dollar's gains eased and Europe picked up the weaker cue to open lower. Major stock indexes in Britain, Germany and France fell 0.2 percent to 0.4 percent at the start of trade.

The Wall Street Journal on Thursday said Geithner had suggested in an interview that he saw no need for the dollar to sink further against the euro and the yen. The news prompted the dollar, which has been in a downtrend for several weeks, to spike half a yen and climb rapidly against the euro.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20101021/bs_nm/us_markets_global

[ozymandius]

6. SEC Set to Vote on Rattner Deal on Thursday: Report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is to vote on Thursday on a settlement with Steven Rattner, the former head of the U.S. auto task force, over his role in a pay-to-play scheme, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.

Five SEC commissioners are expected to vote on a potential $6 million deal that would bar Rattner from the securities industry for two years. A vote had been scheduled for last Thursday but was pulled from the calendar, a source told Reuters last week.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=11931837

[ozymandius]

7. Here's the backstory.

Rattner Said to Be Near SEC Settlement in Corruption Probe

Rattner, 58, arranged to retain Henry “Hank” Morris, the former chief political consultant to ex-New York Comptroller Alan Hevesi, as a placement agent and paid him more than $1 million in sham “finder” fees, according to the SEC and New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. Rattner also is accused of setting up a DVD distribution deal for a movie produced by the brother of a pension fund official.

In exchange, Quadrangle, a New York-based private-equity firm, obtained $100 million in investment commitments from the New York state Common Retirement Fund, said Cuomo, who resolved a probe of the firm in April for $7 million.

Rattner worked until July at the Treasury Department as President Obama's chief advisor for auto industry restructuring.

[Demeter]

Barred for Life Seems Much More Appropriate--2 Years Is Nothing

Rattner should get a real job---or at least spend a lot of time and energy trying to find one.

[ozymandius]

11. 300 years ago people like Rattner were privateers for the British navy.

They flew the flag of whomever paid the most money.

Good morning. :donut: :donut: :donut: Time is nigh for me to leave. Have fun today. :hi:

[ozymandius]

8. Banks Face Two-Front War on Bad Mortgages, Flawed Foreclosures

From Bloomberg:

While federal regulators and state attorneys general have focused on flawed foreclosures, a bigger threat may be the cost to buy back faulty loans that banks bundled into securities. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. have set aside just $10 billion in reserves to cover future buybacks. Bank of America alone said this week that pending claims jumped 71 percent from a year ago to $12.9 billion of loans.

Investors such as Bill Gross’s Pacific Investment Management Co. contend that sellers are obligated to repurchase some mortgages because of misrepresentations such as overstatements of borrowers’ income or inflated appraisals. Their case may be bolstered by probes in 50 states into whether banks used documents that were also flawed to conduct foreclosures. Neither dispute is likely to be resolved quickly.

The biggest risks for banks may be loans packaged into mortgage-backed securities during the housing bubble, of which $1.3 trillion remain. The aggrieved bondholders include government-controlled firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, bond insurers and private investors.

Some formative aspects about the economy for the past ten years are beginning to take solid shape:

• Economic growth for individual states where real estate provided the main conveyor was nothing but bubble;

• Job creation, outlined in this well-researched piece by Jim Quinn, had no hope of sustainability;

• Equity law means nothing anymore to the Banksters. Mortgage standards evolved over two hundred years to offer some immunity to the ravages of the business cycle. The mortgage industry over the past decade have been co-opted as the primary mechanism driving the business cycle.

[Po_d Mainiac]

16. The sharks are smelling blood in the MBS ocean

But the subpoenas could help Fannie and Freddie access loan files for the mortgages backing their bonds and to demonstrate that the loans didn't conform to underwriting guidelines.

The loan files "are really the Holy Grail here," says David Grais, a New York securities lawyer who represents the Federal Home Loan Banks of San Francisco and Seattle, which have sued Wall Street firms to buy back soured mortgage securities.

Difficulty obtaining those loan files is one reason why there have been so few efforts by investors to force repurchases so far. Investors need to access the loan files to determine if there has been a specific violation of certain contracts, but they can't petition trustees for loan pools to take action without first identifying that breach.

snip

On Tuesday, two Knightstown, Ind., homeowners who were foreclosed on filed a federal-court lawsuit against Bank of America, claiming they were deprived of their property because of "perjured" affidavits. The documents were signed by employees who "had no actual knowledge of the facts," according to the suit.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304011604575564631414300418.html

Foreclosuregate is just the tip of the iceberg...As more and more of the 'hosed' fight back, the under capitalization of the investment banks will be the catalyst for the next round of failures...

This is going to come as a shock to the vast numbers of sheeple that are clueless to the impending :nuke: to mortgage markets. The ripple effect will be more like a shockwave to the rest of the economy.

[ozymandius]

9. Credit Suisse Posts 74% Profit Drop on Lower Trading

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group AG, Switzerland’s second-largest bank, reported a 74 percent slump in third- quarter profit, missing analysts’ estimates as lower client activity curbed trading revenue.

Credit Suisse fell as much as 3.9 percent in Swiss trading after saying net income fell to 609 million Swiss francs ($630 million) from 2.35 billion francs a year earlier. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimated the Zurich-based bank would post earnings of 861 million francs.

The bank, which survived the credit crisis without government assistance, said this month it expects to meet new regulatory capital requirements without having to sell new shares or to “materially” change its growth plans and dividend policies.

A Swiss government-appointed panel proposed that the two biggest Swiss banks need to hold almost double the capital required under Basel III rules. By 2019, the lenders need to have a common equity ratio of at least 10 percent, compared with 7 percent under Basel III rules, and total capital equal to at least 19 percent of risk-weighted assets, compared with Basel’s 10.5 percent requirement.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=a.885N_RZ76Y

[Demeter]

10. Morning, Ozy

The Younger Kid informed me she can get a General Studies Associate degree--and wants to give up her paper route, now that she's working 40 hours. Meanwhile, her sister has been doing so much better--3 days of cheerfulness--it's the Twilight Zone! The board meeting was brisk, busy and pretty professional for us.

So things are looking up, for the first time in living memory. Or at least, not getting any worse.

[ozymandius]

12. Thanks for the good news.

:hi: I'll check back later.

[Dr.Phool]

13. Hmmmm. Funny numbers from CNN. Glitch or Crash?

Stocks headed for higher start
Oct 21 4:55am:

U.S. stocks were poised to open higher Thursday, a positive reaction to the latest report about growth in China's economy. More
What’s Moving Pre-Market
S&P 500 Gainers & Losers Price Pre-Market
% Change
PFEPfizer Incorporated 17.68 +17065.00%
IBMInternational Busine... 140.60 +12.49%
EBAYeBay Inc 27.43 +6.90%
CVXChevron Corp 84.79 +0.92%
MSFTMicrosoft Corp 25.50 +0.75%
MOTMotorola Inc 7.81 -92.63%
BACBank of America Corp... 11.75 -88.70%
GEGeneral Electric Co 16.10 -84.52%
WFCWells Fargo & Compan... 25.65 -75.09%
TAt&t Incorporated 28.60 -73.52%
Data as of 5:53am ET
Pre-Market Quote
Sponsored By:

[Po_d Mainiac]

14. Dollar down

Of coarse the equity and commodity markets will follow gravity, or lack there of.
good morning :donut:

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Roland99]

17. Futures are a boomin'

S&P 500 1,180 +5.70 +0.49%
DOW 11,132 +69.00 +0.62%
NASDAQ 2,100 +15.75 +0.76%

[Po_d Mainiac]

18. What a currency intervention looks like

Note the spike at 10pm ET...The duration was good for about 45min. The U$D is nearing the 12 month low.

Another couple hundred Dow points in the up direction should be enough to push the dollar to a level similar to last Decembers low. Prices on the shelves are going to rise (maybe jump) just in time for holiday shopping.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

[Demeter]

27. I've got JUST the song for This Market!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g89NxTTycxc

[Po_d Mainiac]

29. It's going to take 4 hours of Skynyrd and hair pins to the eyes

to get over that.:hurts:

It's not that equities are flying, as much as the U$D is on a decent to 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea.

The greatest problem is is doesn't matter if you are riding on the kite, or in the undersea hulk of iron, there is no easy path back to terra firma. It's either a free fall, or crushed cranium for the 99% without an escape module or golden parachute.

BTW...There are several ideas for the WEE in that last paragragh

[Demeter]

42. What's the Matter, You Don't Like Kites?

[Po_d Mainiac]

44. Love kites....Mary Poppins, not so much

[Dr.Phool]

19. Fannie and Freddie have no notes either?

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=169840

"There's going to be much more incentive to negotiate seriously and quickly than if they had done this seven months ago, when people were blithely ignoring the fraud," says William K. Black, a former federal bank regulator who is now an associate professor at the University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Law."

(snip)

[DemReadingDU]

20. Uh oh

How can they ever going to unwind this huge mess, assuming the original notes were destroyed.

[ozymandius]

46. This is a total fucking mess.

Here is something from the source article at the WSJ:

Some analysts say Fannie and Freddie, which touted their unparalleled mortgage-market expertise, could be hard-pressed to argue that they didn't know what they were buying.

But the subpoenas could help Fannie and Freddie access loan files for the mortgages backing their bonds and to demonstrate that the loans didn't conform to underwriting guidelines.

The loan files "are really the Holy Grail here," says David Grais, a New York securities lawyer who represents the Federal Home Loan Banks of San Francisco and Seattle, which have sued Wall Street firms to buy back soured mortgage securities.

Difficulty obtaining those loan files is one reason why there have been so few efforts by investors to force repurchases so far. Investors need to access the loan files to determine if there has been a specific violation of certain contracts, but they can't petition trustees for loan pools to take action without first identifying that breach.

Maybe it is time to purify the mortgage securities market with flame.

[Demeter]

47. Sounds Like Several Originators Already Did

[ozymandius]

48. Ha!

Probably. I'm surprised the skyline of Manhattan is not obscured by all the haze from dumpster fires.

[DemReadingDU]

21. Update about our Public Records Requests

Refer back to this link from August 12 beginning at #16 for several postings
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=4501081#4501129

Update
As far as the missing Public Records in the village police chief's file, we agreed to a small settlement with the village. We really have no idea the number of missing Public Records. And if this had gone to trial, it is likely more Public Records would have become known that 'disappeared'. When my spouse asked for another person's Public Records, and they also were 'missing', the situation escalated into the mayor and police chief having spouse arrested and booked into jail for allegedly disrupting a meeting. He pled not guilty, and that trial is scheduled 11/17/10. In the meantime, the council asked the village solicitor to write a letter to the Attorney General's office to investigate the events that led up to the lawsuit and the resulting settlement by the village.

[Roland99]

25. Thanks for the update

Will be thinking of ya next month (that's my stepmom's birthday, too)

[Dr.Phool]

22. Fear and Loathing in the Divided States of America

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

The late, great Hunter S. Thompson captured the current sentiment of American society best when he wrote the following words 40 years ago, in his book Fear & Loathing in Las Vegas <1>:

"You can turn your back on a person, but you can never turn your back on a drug, especially when it's waving a razor sharp hunting knife in your eye."






America has defined itself as a society of collective "drug people", pushers, addicts and associates, with our drug of choice being debt. We happily injected drugs worth 300% of our GDP straight into our veins, and made our international dealers filthy rich in the process. The constant influx of drugs into our bodies made us feel super-human, as we were instantaneously able to afford TVs, computers, cars and homes with the swipe of a card and the flick of a pen. Of course, as any regular drug user can attest, the human biological system becomes increasingly tolerant to the jolts of external chemicals and requires ever-larger doses to achieve the same effects.

The economy rapidly became saturated with debt, since economic actors needed to take on more and more debt to simply pay off previous debts and maintain their current level of activity. In 2007-08, the private debt servicing costs overwhelmed the "high" produced from this mostly unproductive debt, in the form of artificially elevated asset prices and revenue streams, and the national body had no more financial capacity to absorb additional drugs. With no more access to their drug of choice after a decades-long binge, the addicts began going through severe withdrawal. The drug-induced mentality of happiness, trust and tolerance was quickly replaced with collective feelings of sickness, fear and resentment.

Individual people who constantly abuse drugs face a deck deeply stacked against their survival and/or a stable existence, but there is always a distinct possibility that they can be "rehabilitated". With some strong support from family and friends, the addict can go into a "program", take the necessary medications, attend the required counseling, learn some discipline and then come out on the other side a healed creature. This recovery is especially likely when the drug consumed is relatively weak, the duration of addiction is relatively short and the addict's community is a strong source of support.

The dynamics become significantly less favorable in a society of millions of addicts, all feeding off of each others' addictions and desperation, without many voices of support or reason. In this environment it becomes much easier for addicts to deny that they even have a problem, let alone it needs to be fixed, and the disconnect between fantasy and reality persists despite the symptoms of societal sickness steadily worsening over time. These symptoms grow gradually more influential as the withdrawal continues, and they can also lead to sudden, acute episodes of collective discomfort.

Many addicts in this situation will simply refuse to face the harsh new reality and continue doing anything they can to find their next fix, especially when there is a friend or family member financially enabling them to get a few more hits from the local dealer. In the wake of peak financial activity in the private sector, the American government popped in and told its citizens "not to worry", because it would provide the temporary subsidies, tax credits or backstops that they needed to get another debt fix.

It also whispered to the dealers "not to worry", because it would keep their profitable drug trade going, seeing as how it supported such a significant percentage of the economy and the past promises made to a now restive population. American addicts continued a sporadic debt binge for some time, but on the whole they continued to be priced out of the saturated market. The struggling addicts eventually have to start fending for themselves, as the government's income is increasingly consumed by direct or indirect handouts, and it transforms into the "friend" who is giving up on the incorrigible addict. What's left is a society of fiendish, debt-starved addicts who, with increasingly little to lose, project their misfortunes onto others.

(snip) more

[Tansy_Gold]

23. Exactly what so many of us have been saying. . . . .

. . . . and for a very long time.

Glad to see the idea is being, ahem, recycled.



TG

[Roland99]

28. Happened upon a good tune for the day - Everybody Knows - Leonard Cohen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q63plx5NClI

[Roland99]

24. And....they're off

Dow 11,155 +47 +0.42%
Nasdaq 2,470 +13 +0.52%
S&P 500 1,182 +4 +0.32%
GlobalDow 2,038 +10 +0.48%
Gold 1,343 -2 -0.12%
Oil 81.92 -0.62 -0.75%

[Po_d Mainiac]

30. The currency markets are pointing the close towards a flat finish

:popcorn:

[TheWatcher]

31. The Near Future As I see it.

I am quite sure there is a lot of celebrating and backslapping going on in the usual places this morning as the Market was manipulated close to the high for the year.

The Kool-Aid is flowing, the Propaganda is buzzing and all the happy little sheep are bleating about, so pleased with themselves that their Lords and Masters have made delusion, stupidity, and ignorance consequence free for them in their perfect little psychotic bubble of neverland.

Back in reality, things are not so rosy.

The Employment numbers prove to be a joke once again, and one should note the HUGE upward revision in last weeks numbers, (475K from 462K) as well as the large upward revision in Continuing Claims.

What the Recovery Cult continues to ignore is that the numbers are revised upward EVERY WEEK now, as the 1984 like conditioning of the public psyche continues. They give you Bullshit Propaganda, and then revise it the next week to cover their asses and say "See, we did tell you the truth, you just didn't pay attention."

Leading indicators were also complete BS, but the number once again to look at is LAST MONTHS, which was revised DOWNWARD from 0.3% to 0.1%. Still probably a complete lie, but a telling revision to say the least.

All the other news is being completely ignored. The truth about the Big Banks and all the massive fraud they have committed is starting to come out, and, especially in BAC's case, it is far worse than was even reported, speculated or imagined.

The country has literally become the Wild, Wild West, as Corporations and Banks literally loot, rob, steal, and break every conceivable law imaginable at will, and The Government not only turns a blind eye, but seems to be enabling, encouraging, and for all we know, actively participating in the fun and games.

The Fed now admits they are Monetizing the Debt at $10 Billion Per week.

If it continues at this rate that works out to $520 Billion per year.


The recent rapid rise of oil, gold, Ag, cotton, etc. are all effects of creeping monetary inflation. Yet we are told no inflation exists. Food Prices continue to silently inflate, yet no one seems to notice or care.

We are at the beginning stages of currency devaluation and Quantitative Easing 2 seems almost a given at this point.

So what does it all mean?

We will continue to see elevated unemployment that will likely continue to increase the next 18-24 months.

If Quantitative Easing 2 and all the massive money printing Helo Ben is engaged in works to perfection as he wishes it to, the Stock Market may keep going up, and up, and up, as the Big Money continues to borrow at rates close to Zero Percent and chases funny money assets to the moon.

How high could this insanity go? The recent Breakout in the Dow suggests that things could go as high as 16,000. No, seriously, this is not a joke.

If this happens though, the Dollar will be destroyed, and purchasing power will diminish greatly to a level not seen in history.

Even if such lofty heights are reached, we all know that every action taken to get them there has not been for purposes of sparking real or fundamental growth or Recovery, but bandaids meant to keep FrankenPonzi alive, and the Wall Street Mafia well-monied and satisfied.

Note to Recovery Cultists:

This isn't for your benefit, and never was.

And just like 2008, there will be a collapse of the House Of Cards once again, as this is not sustainable. The Mafioso will continue their insanity until it doesn't work, and then try and find a way to keep FrankenPonzi Alive for another few years, at your expense and greatly to your detriment. And you will likely continue to cheer it on and fellate them for it, and orgasmically scream for joy at the artificial illusion or Bubble it creates, while millions more lives are destroyed.

And you will be so pleased with yourselves, because it's all Good, Good, Good, in the unaffected world of Pleasantville.

The rest of us will suffer the consequences, which will be horrific and severe.

I suppose TPTB have it figured out pretty well.

As long as enough of a percentage of the population can engorge themselves on enough junk culture, TV, Sports, and other distractions, and remain unaffected by the most extreme consequences of FrankenPonzi, they can keep the illusion of Recovery, Freedom, and Democracy alive, as those who run out of chairs to sit in when the music stops are forgotten, and left to die in their own personal financial Armageddon.

We have devolved into a sick, cowardly, vapid, vacuous, uncaring, selfish, superficial, surface oriented, plastic, narcissistic, hateful, intolerant, stockholmed country that will seemingly put up with endless amounts of crime and abuse just to maintain the fantasy of the status quo.

And the advice I have for the Recovery Bullies?

When this whole thing collapses again, and the fallout is even worse than 2008, keep your mouth shut, and hope that in the unfolding chaos, those who you bullied and heaped abuse upon for trying to speak out and warn others don't remember your transgressions.

You might be able keep all of your teeth.

Anyway, that's how I see things unfolding.

Now Back To Happy Time.

[Dr.Phool]

32. You just want Amerika to fail!!!

:sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm:


Because one sarcasm thingy just isn't enough.

Don't you just love the term "quantitative easing"? They used to just say "Turn on the presses and print some more fucking money!"

To add to the delerium....
Oh my..... more herpes!

Richard M. Bowen, former chief underwriter for Citigroup’s consumer-lending group, said he warned his superiors of concerns that some types of loans in securities didn’t conform with representations and warranties in 2006 and 2007.

“In mid-2006, I discovered that over 60 percent of these mortgages purchased and sold were defective,” Bowen testified on April 7 before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission created by Congress. “Defective mortgages increased during 2007 to over 80 percent of production.”

EIGHTY PERCENT?

Oh my..... let's see, that was over $1 trillion in production, so if that's a reasonable number for the entire thing, that's $800 billion with a loss severity of about 50.....

Uh, people thinking that this is a $200 billion might be a bit light; I come up with $400 billion or so for just one year, and we all know this wasn't a one-year problem...

http://market-ticker.org/

Denninger is on a bit of a role today. Now, I'm off to the back yard to finish putting in the crops.

[Papa Boule]

35. I have no idea how this thing will unfold

We could see a large correction followed by the mother of all quantitative easing and a super-inflated market in worthless dollars -- THEN followed by the mother of all crashes and deflationary depression.

OR we could see a huge crash first, then a long-term hyperinflation scenario.

This thing's going to unfold on its own terms. Frustrating to not have a good handle on it. Makes it hard to hedge against it.

And it's really hard to figure out how to hedge against shock-doctrine authoritarianism/fascism that will rise from the ashes.

[TheWatcher]

33. And for our Musical Selection Today We have a couple of songs that pretty much

sum up the State of The Country as a whole.

Enjoy. Those prone to ear-bleeding and large hair may want to refrain. :)

Some of us saw all of this coming in 1986.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KDO_yCYcuU

What do you mean,
"I don't believe in God"?
I talk to him everyday.

What do you mean,
"I don't support your system"?
I go to court when I have to.

What do you mean,
"I can't get to work on time"?
I got nothing better to do.

And, what do you mean,
"I don't pay my bills"?
Why do you think I'm broke?


If there is the new way,
I'll be the first in line.
But, it better work this time.

What do you mean,
"I hurt your feelings"?
I didn't know you had any feelings.

What do you mean,
"I ain't kind"?
I'm just not your kind.

What do you mean,
"I couldn't be president of the United States Of America"?
Tell me something, it's still

"We the people,"right?

Can you put a price on peace?

Peace sells..., but who's buying?

And these guys have ALWAYS known what's going on......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hqz25Xxxa3Y&feature=fvst

Dying swans twisted wings, beauty not needed here
Lost my love, lost my life, in this garden of fear
I have seen many things, in a lifetime alone
Mother love is no more, bring this savage back home

Wilderness house of pain, makes no sense of it all
Close this mind dull this brain, Messiah before his fall
What you see is not real, those who know will not tell
All is lost sold your souls to this brave new world

Dragon kings dying queens, where is salvation now
Lost my life lost my dreams, rip the bones from my flesh
Silent screams laughing here, dying to tell you the truth
You are planned and you are damned in this brave new world

A brave new world, in a brave new world
A brave new world, in a brave new world
In a brave new world, a brave new world
In a brave new world, a brave new world

[Loge23]

45. May I suggest also:

If you haven't heard the wonderful James McMurtry's "We Can't Make it Here", do yourself a musical favor!
Just Google it. The lyrics are outstanding! All of his work is terrific, IMO.

[Demeter]

34. Foreclosuregate Fallout: How Bad Can It Get For Wall Street?

http://blogs.alternet.org/speakeasy/2010/10/20/foreclosuregate-fallout-how-bad-can-it-get-for-wall-street/

...while the full scope of losses remains unclear, even major banks are now acknowledging that this is a multi-billion-dollar disaster, not just a set of minor paperwork headaches.

So how bad will it get for Wall Street? There are several disaster scenarios in which the housing market simply shuts down, where the potential losses for Wall Street are simply incalculable. But even situations that do not directly rip apart the basic functioning of the mortgage system could be enough to shut down one or more big banks, creating serious trouble for the financial system, and a major test of the recent Wall Street reform bill.

JPMorgan Chase loves using its research department to push its political agenda, and the bank is currently characterizing the foreclosure fraud outbreak as a set of “process-oriented problems that can be fixed.” That puts them in the rosy optimist camp for this crisis, and they’re projecting a total of $55 billion to $120 billion in losses for the entire industry, spread out over a few years...

[Roland99]

36. 2:10pm - Mary Poppins' kite got tangled up in some wires apparently.

Dow 11,083 -25 -0.23%
Nasdaq 2,441 -16 -0.66%
S&P 500 1,173 -5 -0.43%
GlobalDow 2,026 -2 -0.09%
Gold 1,319 -25 -1.85%
Oil 80.18 -2.36 -2.86

[Dr.Phool]

37. Where's the Ponzi Protection Team?

[Roland99]

39. a little late and not so enthusiastic today

[Papa Boule]

38. Hold on to your butts, underclasses. "Savage austerity" is coming to America.

And anyone with a bit of knowledge of history knows what that means in terms of "domestic tranquility." And what that, in turn, will mean in terms of government response to meet it.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/willem-buiter-us-must-prepare-savage-austerity

[bread_and_roses]

43. Arctic of old is gone, experts warn

None of it is going to matter.

Picked up from a post by another DUer:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39779522/ns/us_news-environment

It's too depressing even to quote any.

[Roland99]

41. At the close - Everything's ok. No need to panic. Move along.

Dow 11,147 +39 +0.35%
Nasdaq 2,460 +2 +0.09%
S&P 500 1,180 +2 +0.18%
GlobalDow 2,036 +8 +0.39%
Gold 1,326 -19 -1.38%
Oil 80.70 -1.84 -2.23%