A Break In Democratic Gloom(Early voting mirroring that of 2006)

[Tiggeroshii]

Source: Washington Post


The firm told its clients Friday that early ballots in the 17 states where voting has been sufficient to draw historical comparisons show a partisan balance that looks very much like that in 2006, the year Democrats took back the House and the Senate.

"In many states, it even appears that the electorate so far is a little more Democratic than in 2006, although it is still early in the early voting process," reported the firm, which was founded by Mary Beth Cahill, manager of John F. Kerry's 2004 presidential campaign, and Steve Rosenthal, a former political director for the AFL-CIO. "Further, in some states like Georgia, Florida, Michigan and North Carolina, African Americans in particular seem to be making up a greater proportion of early voters at this point than in 2006."



Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/22/AR2010102206959.html

---

It's all about organization guys! And getting your asses up, and getting out the vote! Keep knocking on those doors, making those phone calls and dedicating all your free time to volunteering Democratic campaigns and WE CAN WIN THIS THING NO MATTER WHAT ANY POLLS SAY!!!

Stay up, stay strong, stay relentless and work hard: WE WIN. =)

[southmost]

1. i'm hoping this leads

to plenty of freeper head explosions on Nov. 3 (its gonna be a long and tense Tuesday night)

[windowpilot]

52. BBV?-nt

[Tx4obama]

2. Early voting surges in Harris County (Texas), across the state

The excerpt below is from: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7258583.html

After four days of early voting, numbers are up sharply in Harris County and across the state, prompting analysts to suggest that Texans are getting used to the convenience, are enthusiastic about their candidates or both.

"We're experiencing tremendously high turnout, both in-person and mail ballots," said Kevin Mauzy, deputy Harris County clerk. "The numbers rival what we did two years ago in a presidential election."

In Harris County, the 2010 numbers are running three times higher than in 2006 and are approaching figures for 2008. Analysts suggested local voters may be getting a head-start because of publicity about the long ballot and about the August fire that destroyed all of the county's voting machines.

Through the first four days, 138,349 local voters cast ballots: 104,420 in person and 33,929 more via mail. According to the Texas secretary of state's office, through the first three days, 316,000 people voted early across Texas, compared with 157,000 at the same point in 2006. In Dallas, Tarrant, Bexar and Travis counties, the numbers are up significantly, although they are not as high as the 2008 presidential election.

------
Here in Texas, in the 2008 election Obama won the majority of our big cities/counties: Austin/Travis, Dallas/Dallas, Houston/Harris, El Paso, SanAntonio/Bexar, etc. (McCain walked away with Ft.Worth/Tarrant)
We have a HUGE amount of Democrats registered down here in our urban cites, so I am really hoping a good percentage of them will come out and vote :)

[Tiggeroshii]

4. I highly recommend taking election day off and knocking on doors

for a Democratic campaign to help make that happen. We can hope all we want, but it's the voter contact that makes all the difference ;)

[DFW]

41. A win for Bill White would remove a big ugly stain from our state's rep

He even called me here on station in Germany looking for a donation a few weeks ago (I gave him several).
Things seem to be slowly pulling his way, but Perry is extremely well-financed, and our state's education
is such that except for a few islands of sanity, the dumbing down of our state's population is a process
well on the way (see "Texas School Board").

Still, it's not out of the question, and Bill White hasn't called back, so I hope this means he is making
progress. I told him I'd give him a big (for me) donation if I had a standing invitation for coffee at the
Statehouse in Austin next year when he was governor. He said I was on. I VERY MUCH would like to collect on that!

[jonthebru]

58. I hope you do.

[lovuian]

66. I love that man

I hope he pulls it out but the electric voting sucks here

[S_B_Jackson]

43. I wouldn't read too much into that....

if you'll recall, a couple of months ago all of Harris County's voting equipment was destroyed in a massive fire at their warehouse. Early voting in this election cycle is as much to avoid long delays on election day, as it is anything else.

[alp227]

49. Yeah i was just about to mention the voting machine fires. n/t

[merci_me]

63. I wouldn't say that

Early on many people were talking about voting early to avoid long lines. However, a few weeks back it was announce that there will be plenty of voting machines for early voting, so they canceled the talked about option of early voters being able to request paper ballots.

Almost to a person, the people I associate with have long lobbied against the non-verifiable machines and were really thrilled about the paper ballot option and probably would have voted early or on the day, whatever they normally do. Now, unless they have to vote early, most have decided to flood the polls November 2 and used the paper ballot option. With the borrowed machines brought in for the election most of us are even more leery about the last minute borrowed machines with no verification.

And of course, the kind of people I'm talking about will be voting, come hell or high water and no one has to ring their phones or knock on their doors.

[Blacksheep214]

3. I have had enough doom and gloom!

It's easy to point fingers at the politicians, but face it, IF, VERY BIG IF!, if the right wasn't so bat crap against everything and in the pockets of lobbyists and others, we could make the moves to clean some DINOs out.

We want a United country, yet we can't even get ourselves on the same page.

The repubs will lose this one only due to the extreme insanity of their candidates positions.

Now bow before the Aqua Buddha and the Witch! :crazy:

[breadandwine]

5. Aw, stop picking on the GOP extremists and O'Donnell....

It's not their fault that they're ethically challenged.......


Stop picking on Chrstine O'Donnell!
Stop picking on Chrstine O'Donnell!
Stop picking on Chrstine O'Donnell!
Stop picking on Chrstine O'Donnell!


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mUn2c_PKho


O'Donnell is not a witch!
O'Donnell is not a witch!
O'Donnell is not a witch!
O'Donnell is not a witch!
O'Donnell is not a witch!
O'Donnell is not a witch!
O'Donnell is not a witch!
O'Donnell is not a witch!
O'Donnell is not a witch!
O'Donnell is not a witch!
O'Donnell is not a witch!
O'Donnell is not a witch!
O'Donnell is not a witch!
O'Donnell is not a witch!

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[intaglio]

7. Radicals? What about the Democratic Party?

If people want to be happy that the GOP is not doing well then let them.

If you believe that people should not be happy about voting for Grayson or Feingold then perhaps you might want to stop posting on Democratic Underground. Now stop patronising people and get the vote out

[No Elephants]

9. Huh? Plenty of radicals vote Democratic. In her youth, Hillary was a fan of Alinsky

(after being a Goldwater Girl, but before being a DLC co-founder, LOL). Maybe she still is. Many other Democrats sure are.


Radical Bill Ayers had a fund raiser for a young, Democratic, Illinois state Senate hopeful with an unusual name. Etc.

[AlbertCat]

53. Plenty of radicals vote Democratic.

Yeah, but their radicalism usually doesn't involve a complete lack of knowledge and utter credulity. Magic and science fiction are not usually present.

[RBInMaine]

10. Better advice woulld be to "Get up, go vote, and go canvass on foot or by phone."

[Tiggeroshii]

45. +1

We all need to be hammering away at this message, as well as following through with it. Thank you! ;)

[quaker bill]

12. Sanity

is apparently far more rare than you think it is.

[No Elephants]

8. Heh, heh, heh. Suck it, biased pollsters and media. Your efforts to

create a sense of inevitability re: a Rethug sweep seem to have failed.

the majority of voters don't seem to wants your played out help the rich/squeeze everyone else, your nut job mama or papa grizzly haters or your mindless obstructionism.

Thanks for helping us get out the Dem vote, though!

[Tiggeroshii]

48. they estimate likely voters without consideration of people who are doing all the groundwork.

But solid organization is overcoming anything perttaining to their likely voter model. If we just keep it up, knock on doors drive people to the polls, etc; then we will win! But we have to knock on doors. The more people who sit at home and don't make phone calls or knock on doors- the more likely for these polls to be correct.

[RBInMaine]

11. I have been canvassing on foot and by phone. You can even do it from home. Rock the vote out !

[Tiggeroshii]

55. ALL OF US SHOULD BE

ROCKIN! =D

[quaker bill]

13. So, when do you think

the polling firms will look at actual voting behavior and adjust their "likely voter" models? Probably not until next weekend, if at all, would be my guess.

[Rozlee]

23. The optimist invented the airplane, the pessimist invented the parachute

I hate being pessimistic, but the GOP base consists of mainly old fart over 65'ers who tend to be traditional and hit the voting booths on Nov. 2 in hordes. Having said that, I'm going along with at least one of your "likely voter" scenarios. The pollsters tend to dismiss a great many younger, single voters under 30, esp minority voters. College students nowadays are really savvy and even though they, disappointingly, don't have anti-war activism, they do have I-know-which-side-my-student-grants-are-buttered-on activism. My nephews are going to UTSA and tell me that membership in the Young Democrats on campus has swelled and that their get-out-the-vote drives have left the much smaller College Rethugs coughing in their dust. Their ridicule of this season of witches, Nazis, and mice with human brains and "constitutional" teabaggers that don't know what's in the Constitution is even more derisive than anything I've ever read on DU. I personally can't wait for the Republican primaries in 2012. Their candidates are going to have to win the approval of the teabagger base and each one is going to have to be strained to his/her most racist, batshit crazy, ignorant foundation. Hopefully, by then, people who voted in teabaggers, Rethugs, and the Pledge to America will be sick of having unemployment benefits cut for two years, Medicaid defunded, Rethugs speculating on deep cuts in Medicare and vote to kick out the dirty bastards.

[quaker bill]

68. The unfortunately good bit in all this

is that nothing will happen. Obama has the veto pen and there is no scenario where republicans gain enough power in the Senate to override a veto.

So, if they win, for two years, nothing will happen, no good stuff, and pretty much no bad stuff. The economy will continue to lag, and nothing the teabaggers promise will occur. This should set up an interesting race in 2012.

[mwb970]

14. I'll mail in my all-Dem ballot today.

I think we are going to do better than the corporate media wants us to!

[2critical]

15. I'll probably vote Democratic, but...

I certainly won't give money or volunteer this time around. The Dems have not earned my time or my vote. These past 2 years have been a giant fail. I'll probably vote Dem (I'll certainly never vote Rep), but the Dems are weak and wimpy.

[glowing]

16. Better than having Bush years.. Or years like Clinton had where

Gingrich shut down the govt....

[Lorien]

22. I look at it this way; if we don't put even more Dems into office then team Obama

will lurch even further to the Right. If we give them an even bigger majority, then they'll have no excuses for their pro-corporate, anti-progressive agenda. If the repugs win then the next two yeaars WILL feel like BushCo's third term. I certainly share your disappointment with the spine free Democrats, but I don't want to allow the DLC yet another excuse for turning the New Democrats into the Old Republicans.

[2critical]

69. How much more did they need?

They had majorities in both the House and Senate and held the Presidency. That pap about the filibuster is just an excuse. They could have changed the rules if they had wanted. And they didn't anticipate the Republican obstruction? LOL!

[iamthebandfanman]

25. i said i wouldnt either

but i have.
not all of them are wimps.

i didnt give a dime to the national organisations, but i did on a local level.


if you think whining and taking ur ball home means the game isnt still played tho, i got news for ya...

[tinrobot]

26. These last two years have been spent reversing a giant fail.

They get my vote, and I've already donated.

You should donate, too.

[defendandprotect]

31. Just keep thinking of it as knocking out Repugs... we can double back for

problems in our own party later --

[stevebreeze]

32. so next tiem go out and get involved early and help chose those who are on the Nov ticket

[Teaser]

35. Sappers out in force

.

[RoccoR5955]

17. The MSM has been blowing this up THE WRONG WAY to get better ratings

They will be wrong in the outcome, with their early polls. Many of the large polling organizations lean toward the right, and none of them poll cell phones. As many people no longer have land lines, this would skew the polls.
Even Nate Silver, will be wrong this time around.
Clearly, only the people who were pissed off, showed up at the primaries. That's how the teabaggers got nominated, many times against State parties' wishes. This will result in huge losses for RepubliCONS, because, face it, teabaggers are unelectable!

This does not mean that we should not get out the vote. It is essential for us to get out the vote, because each and every time Democrats get out the vote, Democrats win!

The '09 losses should be a lesson to all of us. We didn't get out the vote in MA, and what happened?

[defendandprotect]

33. MSM gets 80% of the campaign funds ... for ads --- the more controversy, the more drama....

the more money they make!

[breadandwine]

18. The truth, though, is that the average voter knows next to nothing about how bad the Republicans are

The bad ones are only a few rotten apples in the good barrel!!

Yeah, right.

[droidamus2]

19. What will happen

The MSM has been touting the 'Republican Tidalwave' for months now. What happens if it is just a ripple? The traditional reaction from the Repugs in recent years, when they lose or don't do as good as expected, is to move further to the right and blame themselves with some kind of statement like 'we didn't stay true to our principles'.
With the inclusion of the teabaggers, who are just the craziest of the crazy conservative Republicans, how could they move any further right? If they don't take the house or senate they should really start to look at the possibility that their 'principles' meaning the mantra they run on has run its course and they need to develop a new message. This is what I believe happened to the liberal movement right around the time Reagan one his first term. The liberals had been speaking the same lines (most of us probably agreed with them) and had the same platform for years and people stopped reacting, in a positive way, to that message. That allowed Reagan to run on the idea that its just the same old liberals and we need a new way of doing things (even if it was just the old way in a new package). If the Repugs don't do real well in this election they will be on the verge of irrelevancy unless they really examine what their doing and come up with a real new message and way of doing things. As a suggestion to the Republican party if this happens how about being part of developing solutions instead of just saying NO and hoping your opponent implodes.

[stevebreeze]

20. The media has been claiming it's a bad year for Dems for over a year.

They are only trying to make it a self fulfilling prophecy. I have been telling people for moths that it's bull. The Dems will do much better then the main stream so called left media wants anyone to think. I have been banging doors for two months, the "angry" voters I have come across most often is vote em all out Republicans, who will vote out any incumbent. Since I live in an area that is mostly represented by GOP that means they will be voting for some Dems they would not ordinarily vote for, me being one. In Dem areas those people would not ordinarily vote Dem anyway. So let the tea parers rant on. it's working for us.

[Gman]

21. It will all turn on what independents do

The GOP seems to think they've got independents in their back pocket.

[mikekohr]

24. BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!!

"Dewey Defeats Truman."

[Chipper Chat]

36. just...4....U

[mikekohr]

59. Sweet!

I'll blow this up for my wall.

mike kohr
Bureau County Democrats

[lovuian]

67. woohoo

:woohoo:

[INdemo]

27. One minute we see early voter turn out favor the Democrats..The next page

I read that Republicans are poised to take the House..Then I see it is an AP article that says it all..

[LaloBorges]

28. My Theory, and I hope I'm right

1. The republicans have been making a lot of noise regarding the elections and trying to make people think that they (republicans) will take the house this coming elections. Its their old strategy of setting a Meme in motion and hoping that people will eventually believe it. This has been enhanced by the fact that the "liberal" media has been helping to propagate the Meme, and it really makes me sick when I hear Keith help with the republican cause, not willing I don't think, and repeat what they think is a fact. So...its all bull from the republicans.

2. Democrats are tired of trying to get through the think heads of republican voters so, most of us have decided to stay quiet and when the time comes, which is during elections, we will vote for those we believe will work for us and not the corporations as, contrary to the Memes, we DO know and remember who screwed up our economy and everything else.

So...hoping that I am right, go out and vote and lets make sure the repubs do not get another chance to screw things up.

[MartyM]

29. Here's an idea to boost turnout......

Since Republicans are making such a stink about NPR firing Williams - and DeMint and other Rethugs calling for government DEfunding of NPR -
Dems should make signs for rallies --

KEEP NPR - vote Democratic!

KEEP PBS & Big Bird - vote Democratic!

We went through this several years ago with Rethugs attempting to defund NPR & PBS. But even Republican voters listen to NPR and LOVE Big Bird......so Rethugs failed.

Folks defending Williams' fearmongering remarks are essentially attempting to uphold Fox as THE "standard bearer" of credible news - ha!- and expecting National PUBLIC Radio to lower THEIR standards to include fearmongering OPINIONS which divides the public!

But there is no comparison - NPR is a respected non-partisan news source, while Fox is a propaganda machine for the Republican Party.

Perhaps we can use this NPR dustup FOR Democrats' advantage?

[Arugula Latte]

40. Welcome to DU, Marty.

:hi: :toast:

[MartyM]

50. Thanks! - hey, I'm serious about those NPR & Big Bird signs at Dem rallies - let's do it!

OK?

[Iliyah]

60. Fake News

wants to control all of the media thats why I never liked nor trusted Murdock b/c he reminds me of the same tactic the Nazis did in WW2. Their brainwashed minons can't see it but think that the Dems are the commies. Regarding WW2, by the time the sane people in the world realized what was going on it was to late. Millions of people of all colors and faiths were targeted and millions died b/c people looked away. Juan Williams should fit in quite well at Fake News.

Almost everywhere I go on the internet I see Palin's angry fake smile face. I'm tired of seeing her and GOP, where they paint them as positive, which I know they are not. Their motto should be "I got America for Sale".

I'm hoping the Dems will upset them. I betting on the long shot.

[defendandprotect]

30. Good news -- hope everyone gets out and bashes the right wing corporatists ....

[Oceansaway]

34. wooooohoooooo !!...nt

[bos1]

37. "Gloom" = sheer biased reporting

and a ton of BS on top. Now they're going from "enthusiasm gap" to "gloom". What a lying crock the MSM is. I am partying (and working) hard

[Tempest]

39. +1

I've been saying for months not to believe the polls.

[Tiggeroshii]

47. +2

That's what I like to see! =D

[laughingliberal]

38. K & R nt

[S_B_Jackson]

42. Hope that this is true, however

most of my extended family is conservative and they absolutely refuse to vote early or absentee. I guess they're paranoid about "gubmint bureaucrats" losing their votes, or deliberately misplacing them, or something. Most of them are in Nevada in and around Carson City/Reno area and they're all worked up about voting - not for Angle - but against Harry Reid. OK, I can understand that Reid isn't all that attractive a candidate, but Angle?!? She's certifiably bat-shit crazy!!!!!

Back to the topic at hand.....unfortunately, I think that my relatives are fairly representative of the tea-baggers mentality.....they're not going to vote eary, they're going to show up on Nov 2nd and, I'm afraid, they're going to show up in droves.

[Tiggeroshii]

46. We have to show up in droves too

The reason we are doing well right now is because people are knocking on doors, and getting people to vote who often otherwise wouldn't be voting at all if anybody didn't talk to them. All we need to do is keep this up, and make sure the Democrats get to the polls and we will cancel out any "enthusiasmm gap" or the like that seems to threaten us. All it takes is hard work and persistence!

YES WE CAN ;)

[Name removed]

51. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[oswaldactedalone]

65. This is what I think as well

Previous elections say this is the trend. Just do what you can to get our voters out.

[nolabear]

44. K&R, for "Kick Republican" Ass.

[alp227]

54. Great efforts by Clinton and Obama huh?

But now I'm worried about the actual Election Day voters...you never know about a sudden Republican surge aided by independents...but this "ealry voting mirroring 2006" news is great!

[tavalon]

56. If you have early voted or voted by mail, it's tradition on DU to change your avatar

to "I Voted" until after the election.

[Tiggeroshii]

57. still haven't received my ballot in the mail

as soon as I do I will change it =)

[David Zephyr]

61. Yep.

K&R.

[Number23]

62. HELL YEAH!!

"Further, in some states like Georgia, Florida, Michigan and North Carolina, African Americans in particular seem to be making up a greater proportion of early voters at this point than in 2006."

I know I did my part when I sent in my absentee ballot three weeks ago! :bounce:

[LaPera]

64. Got to get everyone - family and Friends the last week to get them to vote DEMOCRATIC!

ONE WEEK LEFT TO GO - And the republicans will be stealing votes with electronic voting machines & scanners in ALL states with republicans Secretary of States - Good thing in CA we have Debra Bowen- Democrat!