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Viva_La_Revolution Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 12:03 PM
Original message
Russia to halt gasoline exports in May
Source: UPI

Exports of gasoline from Russia will stop in May to address rampant shortages in parts of the country, a deputy energy official said.

Moscow is keeping fuel prices suppressed ahead of parliamentary elections in December and the presidential contest next March. Some gasoline stations in Russia that aren't owned by major oil companies are running out of gas and many cities, including St. Petersburg, reported dwindling supplies, Russia's state-run news agency RIA Novosti reports.

Russian Deputy Energy Minister Sergei Kudryashov said Russia might have to stop exporting fuel products to address domestic demand.



Read more: http://www.upi.com/Science_News/Resource-Wars/2011/04/28/Russia-to-halt-gasoline-exports-in-May/UPI-88831303994503/
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RC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 12:35 PM
Response to Original message
1. Oh goodie, an excuse for $5.00 gasoline this summer.
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earthside Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. I hate cockeyed optimists.
Get real -- $6, maybe $7 a gallon if this report turns out to be true. And if Russia is experiencing shortages now, what happens if that condition persists through the summer?

For countries that import refined product because they lack their own sufficient refining capacity, this is going to be a real blow ... and it will undoubtedly have a ripple effect throughout the global economy.

Five dollars a gallon might be very optimistic.

(I don't really hate you ... I'm just trying to make a point.)
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Crop Circle Donating Member (37 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 12:44 PM
Response to Original message
2. Russia has been the world's # 1 oil producer lately....
and that they're taking this action is yet another sign that the world may be close to sliding off the current 6 year long production plateau. In other words - peak oil - or post peak oil.

As Chris Martenson says, "The next twenty years will be completely different from the last twenty".
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Phlem Donating Member (580 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 12:44 PM
Response to Original message
3. I wonder
if it's not a strategic move as we're so dependent on the stuff. Our military is the largest consumer of gas in our country and wouldn't that be an nice Achilles tendon to cut.

-p
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Amonester Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 02:05 PM
Response to Reply #3
15. The MIC has its own 'reserves' untouched to last for a relatively long time.
What are you talking about?
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Phlem Donating Member (580 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 02:12 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. I was wondering
not making a statement either way.

-p
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FedUpWithIt All Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 02:05 PM
Response to Original message
5. That will be Russia and China and Saudi Arabia is saying there is market oversaturation
which they say is going to lead to them cutting production.

Sounds like there is some trouble brewing.

" BEIJING, Aug. 31 (Xinhua) -- PetroChina and Sinopec, China's two biggest oil companies, may continue to cut gasoline exports in September following a huge reduction in August, the China Securities Journal reported on Friday. "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2007-08/31/content_6639538.htm

"Saudi Oil Production Doesn’t Add Up" http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/04/27/saudi-oil-production-doesnt-add-up-4/?mod=google_news_blog
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Javaman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 02:22 PM
Response to Original message
6. So they suppress gas prices only for them to rocket up after their election.
and they say the US is the only one that cooks the books these days. LOL
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Lance_Boyle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 02:33 PM
Response to Original message
7. Sounds like only refined gasoline, not crude oil?
I'm not sure where they normally export the refined product to - would guess mostly Eastern Europe and the former Soviet republics. But if crude exports remain, then this shouldn't have a huge impact very far outside of the old Soviet Union borders, right?

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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 08:28 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. Looks like Russia refines 60% of its own oil production
Edited on Thu Apr-28-11 08:28 PM by happyslug
Total Crude Production (2009): 9,495.36 thousand barrels per day
Total Oil refining capacity:5,428 thousand barrels per day

That equals 57% of what Russia produces, it refines (Assuming no drop in production since 2009, and there are indication oil production has declined).

Consumption is only 2,790.00 thousand barrels per day, so Russia refines TWICE the oil it uses.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/country/country_energy_data.cfm?fips=RS

Since Russia exports both Crude AND refine oil, it can keep prices low internally (Provided Putin can keep all the Russia thieves in line, so far he seems to have been able to do so).
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 08:58 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. Interesting.
What do you think is behind this, Happyslug?
Do you believe it's political?
I know that when the Allied Forces dropped bombs on Libya, both China & Russia were adamant, that the antics needed to stop, immediately. In the Swedish papers, the sentiment was that they were furious. There wasn't much in US papers about this. It could be why the US was reluctant to get involved.

I'm also thinking about the incident in Georgia a few years back. If I were Puting, I'd be looking for a little revenge over that.

Double-whammy. A few months ago, Russia decided to halt all grain exports. It was a similar reason, to protect 'domestic' needs. I wonder.

When you got 4 aces....
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 10:34 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. The Russian move is to keep Gasoline price down in Russia till after the election
Edited on Thu Apr-28-11 10:38 PM by happyslug
Putin and his allies are more concern about losing the election then anything else. The Communist are still the largest opposition party and has been expanding since 2000 (In the 1990s all you read about in the west was the decline of the old Russian Communist party, since 2000 and the Communist parties growth, the newspaper writers have just been quiet about them, like ignore then, and they will go away).

The Russian Communist Party of 2011 is NOT the Communist party of Gorbachev and the Collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, it is a more discipline party with a loyal following. Putin has managed to win elections the same way Yelsin did, buying votes (Not in paying people to vote for him, but spending money so people feel that it is in their best interest to keep getting that money by voting to keep Putin in office).

As to the Russian Communist Party, remember the massive shut down of the old Soviet Military Industrial Complex was started by Gorbachev, finished by Yelsin and do to that shut down Russia went into severe withdraws. Putin, a former KGB agent, used his KGB connections to replace Yelsin as the price of oil started to go up. Thus most of the old Soviet Military-Industrial Complex had been destroyed and thus Putin did NOT have to pay that ghost (The Soviet Union in the 1980s was spending almost 40 % of its GNP on the Military, an excessive amount, 10% is generally considered fatal over any length of time). By the Time Putin was in charge, the Russian Army was NOT buying new Equipment, barely buying replacements for existing equipment for the supplies of such equipment had either opt for foreign sales OR gone out of business (Some of the capacity survived, but at a shadow of what was spent in Soviet times, through some of the equipment fielded was as good as latest military toys from the West). The Soviet Military-Industrial Complex was a huge drain on the Soviet Economy and with it gone, Putin could spend money with worrying that the Military-Industrial Complex would such up any money for anything else.

Starting in 2000, Russia benefits from two things, first Russia increased oil production (Oil production peaked in 1986, then fell to 2000, when production went up and reached a new peak in 2008, now it is falling again, but not at the rate it fell in the 1990s).

Second, the price of oil bottomed out in 1997 (while Yelsin was President of Russia, this drop in price was tied in with the drop in production) but then started to climb till it peaked in 2008. Putin reaped a whirl wind of gratitude for this, for it permitted him to honor all the old Soviet Pensions (Thus keeping the Senior Citizens happy) and able to expand things for the rest of Russia in the from of new technology (Siberia is the new Hot Spot for the latest Computer "boom", and I mean "Boom" as in something real NOT like "Facebook" which is more image then substance). Putin even was able to upgrade some of the Military (But the Russian Army long term plan to replace the AK-74 with the An-94 never did happen do to lack of funds, showing that Putin prefers to spend the oil money other then in the Military).

More on the AN-94:
http://www.enemyforces.net/firearms/abakan.htm

My point is Putin is in a tight squeeze, he does NOT want to expand his Military, for that would force him to stop spending elsewhere. He is presently has more money coming in do to the increase price in the price of oil, but he has also seen Russia suffer from high summer temperatures last Summer (Which affect the price of food within Russia). Putin can use the extra money from his sale of oil, to fulfill much of what he wants done, thus making sure the voters vote for him not the Communists. Most people who own cars, bought them in the last 20 years and are connected and benefited with the Conversion from Communism, thus are the least likely to vote Communist UNLESS they think all is lost and the Communist are the only ones who can solve the problem. To keep these car owners happy, Putin wants to keep the price of gasoline low. Most of these Car Owners get the Internet and thus know how much the world price of oil is going up, and thus will be grateful to Putin for the lower prices and will award him with their votes. Putin fears that if the price of gasoline gets to high and Car Owners have to park their cars, they will opt for the Communists, for not having a car was the norm under the Communists, and a parked car is Worse then not having one (the car still has to be paid for and maintained). Thus Putin Fears Car drivers who have to park their cars do to high gasoline prices will vote for the Communists, how much worse can they be? And given the Communists are NOT planning to do anything radical, except switch how the oil money is spent, voting Communist may not be a bad choice for most voters.

Yes, in the west you hear of the other political opposition, but it is the Communist who are the real opposition and the one Putin fears.

Please note I know Putin is NOT the President of Russia, but he is the leader of the party that elected Putin and his Successor and thus why I use Putin instead of any other name.

One last comment, remember domestic politics is more important then what is going on overseas, but the Russian people do believe Russia has a place in the world and want their leaders do show Russia has a place, thus Putin's Comment may be more for Russian Domestic consumption then foreign consumption. i.e. Putin is worried someone will run on a "Save Libya" ticket and get votes from voters who believe Putin should have done something about Libya. Russia has cut off all supplies to Libya, Russia has NOT send any warships to Libya to "Observe" what the US and NATO is doing. Russia did NOT veto the UN Resolution, through it permitted bombing. All of those show Russia cares less about Libya, Putin statements seems more for Russian Domestic consumption then any real concern about Libya, and given Russia has an election this year, that explains why the comment was made.
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 01:46 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. Thanks,
I always learn a lot from reading your posts.

~the best writer on the DU~
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NickB79 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 02:37 PM
Response to Original message
8. Hmm, the land-export model strikes again! nt
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-28-11 08:01 PM
Response to Original message
9. Whoa.
Time to go fill up the gas tank. And start saving...

This is shocking news. I almost fell out of my chair when I read it. This is going to be devastating....to the so-called "recovery" and also Obama's re-election. It's going to spell the death of both.

I believe Russia is the world's second-largest oil producer, after Saudi Arabia. Russia produces 9.67 million barrels per day. A LOT of oil. Now that Libya's oil production is in trouble, the oil markets are jittery. To add to that, Saudi Arabia last week said they were NOT going to increase production to replace Libyan oil. OMG

Also, I'm not sure I believe the story about 'shortages' in Russia. The population is not that big, compared to other countries.
This is probably political.




For those who have been predicting $5.00 gas, I say, try $8.00 by the end of the year.
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snooper2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-29-11 01:48 PM
Response to Original message
14. I find this very difficult to masterbate to.... 
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