STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 13 August

[ozymandius]

Friday August 13, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 160
DAYS UNTIL W* GETS HIS PINK SLIP 81
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 245 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 299 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 512
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 995
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 12, 2004

Dow... 9,814.59 -123.73 (-1.24%)
Nasdaq... 1,752.49 -29.93 (-1.68%)
S&P 500... 1,063.23 -12.56 (-1.17%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.25% -0.03 (-0.63%)
Gold future... 396.60 -1.60 (-0.40%)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. Good morning (?) all.

Now that our move is over and we are in the process of settling into our new neighborhood - my attention has turned to securing a job. Anyone who is job searching right now has my heartfelt sympathy. I have never seen a job market so competitive and stingy in terms of pay and benefits. What makes this market so nerve-rackingly competitive is the number of entry level jobs that are being filled by people with advanced degrees.

Little case in point: I applied for a job at the High Museum of Art. My old job in the public radio business required many transferable skills for this job (ex: data base management, knowledge of (art) history, digital media applications, contract negotiations). Nonetheless, the position was filled by a Ph.D. from Cambridge (England). The hiring manager told me that my cover letter was superb, my qualifications and educational background are excellent. But when you can have a Ph.D. for the same money as a BFA, who are you gonna pick?

Such is the case with other folks in the area. A handful of friends who are looking for jobs "sat out" the first two years of the Bush recession in graduate school. They thought the recession would be over by the time school was finished. Wrong! Too many of these people are becoming unemployment statistics after earning their advanced degrees.

(I thought DU could branch out in a new direction by offering an employment forum for like-minded individuals: where one could post their resume and contact info. But that would be too far from the website's scope.)

I recognize that this mini-rant is out of complete frustration. But I also feel that evidence of our collective state of affairs is drawn from these stories. This economy is hurting so many people. Bush has had 3-1/2 years to do something positive. (Honestly, I did not have ANY faith at the start that he would.) Yet his economic policies, in collusion with his Congressional minions, have only worsened our collective condition.

Bush almost has my pity for what he has done to so many educated and skilled people. What kind of a chance at winning this election does he imagine having after pursuing policies that, by design, disenfranchise middle class workers? Mind you, these are middle class workers who are well educated with little left to lose while they are trying to support their families.

[greymattermom]

2. job

Try applying at Emory. My sister has worked there for years and loves it.

[UpInArms]

4. Oh Ozy, how I wish I could do something real

and tangible for you :(

:hug:

I do so understand how distressing your situation is - although we (my family) were never rolling in dough, we had enough (through our business) to pay our bills and live (we do clay). We have watched our sales decrease over the past 3 1/2 years to the point of them being basically invisible.

January 2005 cannot come soon enough for many families.

[JNelson6563]

8. My kingdom for aid to my friend Ozy!

Hi Ozy,

I understand your frustration. We have been in your situation and it's very stressful. While I sense your frustration clearly I also note your usual grace present in your post.

Hugs and encouragement to you and yours dear. Soon things will get better, Bush is on his way out. He's campaigning but I like to think of it as a farewell tour. He'll be here Monday and I'll be helping to hold up a banner that says just that: Bush/Cheney '04 Farewell Tour.

Hugs and encouragement to you and yours Ozy--

Julie

[54anickel]

9. Wow Ozy, I remember when they wouldn't want to hire an over-qualified

candidate (Ph.D.) because they figured they wouldn't stick around very long.

I have been seeing the same thing with regards to pay and benefits - pretty low compared to the starting pay in the 90s. Not much incentive anymore for those jobs that require a beeper on your hip 7x24 either. I have LOTS of tales I could share but they get too depressing.

I wish you much success in your job search. I have decided to "sit out" the next year or 2 and complete a dual BA degree. I'll keep looking while working on that, but it's not very promising in my area these days.

(ISP is still having DNS issues, we'll see how the day goes)

[UpInArms]

3. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

the ino page is "stuck" at yesterday's closing number of 88.69 - but with a little calculating, it appears that the dollar is currently sitting at 89.13 a gain of .44 in the overnight action

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1092388177-9e32d306-15138

Forex - Dollar broadly higher as yen suffers blow from oil prices, soft GDP

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was broadly higher against major currencies with much of its push higher coming at the expense of the yen which suffered a double blow from resurgent oil prices and weaker-than-expected Japanese economic growth

"Price action overnight has been more about yen weakness than dollar strength, although this is beginning to emerge this morning," said Steve Pearson at HBOS

Benchmark crude broke through yet another all-time high yesterday, weighing heavily on net oil importers like Japan. "The surging oil price is an important yen negative; it threatens the yen's current account surplus via both rising import costs and weaker demand overseas," Pearson added

On top of the oil price gains, Japanese second-quarter GDP growth was disappointing, rising just 0.4 pct when consensus estimates had pointed to a 1 pct increase. The leading index of share prices in Tokyo, the Nikkei index, slumped 2.5 pct after the data, putting more pressure on the yen. At one point, the dollar rose past 112 yen but has since settled just under that level

The soft GDP number comes on the heels of an upbeat assessment of the economy by the IMF

Simon Derrick at Bank of New York believes there is still some basis for the IMF report. "We should refrain from striking an overly pessimistic tone on the economic outlook -- at least for the moment. The data could well be revised over coming months to make very different reading come the end of the third quarter," he said

No one expects a smooth recovery in Japan and going by recent monthly data, the GDP data must be viewed with some scepticism, Derrick said

Part of the dollar's broader strength also came from closer inspection of US retail sales data yesterday. While July numbers were soft, data for June was adjusted up substantially. Moreover, weekly jobless claims dropped sharply, suggesting that the labour market situation may not be as bleak as some believe

...more...

here are the reports due out today:

Aug 13 8:30 AM
Core PPI Jul
-
briefing.com 0.2%
market 0.1%
last report 0.2%
-

Aug 13 8:30 AM
PPI Jul
-
briefing.com -0.1%
market -0.2%
last report -0.3%
-

Aug 13 8:30 AM
Trade Balance Jun
-
briefing.com -$46.0B
market -$47.0B
last report -$46.0B
-

Aug 13 9:45 AM
Mich Sentiment-Prel. Aug
-
briefing.com 97.0
market 97.5
last report 96.7
-

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

5. here are some of the numbers

8:29am 08/13/04

U.S. JULY PPI UP 0.1% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

8:29am 08/13/04

U.S. JULY CORE PPI UP 0.1% AS EXPECTED

8:30am 08/13/04

U.S. JUNE TRADE GAP WIDENS 19.1% TO RECORD $55.8 BLN

8:30am 08/13/04

U.S. JULY INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 0.8%, CRUDE DOWN 0.2%

8:30am 08/13/04

U.S. JULY PPI FOOD PRICES DOWN 1.6%; ENERGY UP 2.3%

8:30am 08/13/04

U.S. JUNE TRADE GAP WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS OF $46.9 BLN

8:30am 08/13/04

U.S. PPI UP 4% YEAR-OVER-YEAR; CORE PPI UP 1.7%

8:30am 08/13/04

U.S JULY INTERMEDIATE CORE UP 6.4% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

8:30am 08/13/04

U.S. JUNE TRADE GAP WITH CHINA RECORD $14.2 BLN

8:30am 08/13/04

U.S. JULY INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES UP RECORD 8.6%

[Robbien]

10. May I say that when they report food is down 1.6%

I wonder what planet they are living on.

[UpInArms]

12. perhaps they are referring

to the wholesale prices that are paid for commodities from the few remaining farmers?

[Robbien]

17. Just reading that the high farm subsidies result in lower food prices

So PPI must be the farm prices less subsidies and less transportation to market.

What a crock.

[UpInArms]

7. filling in the report blanks

Aug 13 8:30 AM
Core PPI Jul
report 0.1%
briefing.com anticipated 0.2%
market anticipated 0.1%
last report 0.2%
revised -

Aug 13 8:30 AM
PPI Jul
report 0.1%
briefing.com anticipated -0.1%
market anticipated 0.2%
last report -0.3%
revised -

Aug 13 8:30 AM
Trade Balance Jun
report -$55.8B
briefing.com anticipated -$46.0B
market anticipated -$47.0B
last month- $46.8B
revised from -$46.0B

[UpInArms]

28. Michigan Sentiment Report

Aug 13 9:45 AM
Mich Sentiment-Prel. Aug
reported 94.0
briefing.com anticipated 97.0
market anticipated 97.5
last report 96.7

guess the market thinks this terrific!

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38212.4145601852-817503101&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

Stocks firmly positive after consumer sentiment data ($INDU, $COMPQ) By Tomi Kilgore
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Stocks dipped slightly following the release of weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment data, but recovered to remain firmly on positive ground. The Dow industrials ($INDU) was last up 32 points at 9,846 and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) was 13 points better at 1,765. In the broad market, advancing stocks more than doubled up decliners by a 1,929 to 714 score on the NYSE and by a 1,658 to 753 margin on the Nasdaq exchange. Volume of stocks gaining ground trounced down volume by 79.3 million shares to 34.7 million shares on the Big Board and by 118 million shares to 32.4 million shares on the Nasdaq. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for August fell to 94.0 from 96.7, vs. economist forecasts of a slight dip to 96.4. Following the data, the Dow dipped to about 9,828 and the Nasdaq dipped to 1,763.

[UpInArms]

14. dollar index chart now working

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 88.49 Change -0.20 (-0.23%)

Last tick: 2004-08-13 08:36:15 ET
30-min delayed quote

[UpInArms]

6. U.S. trade gap in June widens to record $55.8 bln

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38212.3544675926-817496368&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

U.S. trade gap in June widens to record $55.8 bln By Greg Robb
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened by 19.1 percent in June to a record $55.8 billion, the Commerce Department said. The trade deficit was well above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of a deficit of $46.9 billion. This is the largest one-month widening of the trade gap since February 1999. Imports of goods and services rose in June while exports declined. Imports rose 3.3 percent to a record $148.6 billion. Exports fell 4.3 percent to $92.8 billion. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to a record $14.2 billion in June. The U.S. also set record deficits with Mexico, Canada, OPEC and the South/Central American region in June.

[54anickel]

42. Bonds climb on record trade gap

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/13/markets/bondcenter/bonds/

Treasury yields fall after export reading slides, indicating GDP may ease; dollar falls vs. euro.
August 13, 2004: 9:37 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. Treasury prices jumped Friday after the trade deficit in June came in far wider than expectations on falling exports, a key measurement in gross domestic product that may lower expectations for economic growth.

"It's extraordinary, I've never seen this big a swing in one month" in the trade deficit, Kevin Logan, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in New York, told Reuters.

As part of the report, exports, which is a component of gross domestic product measurement, fell 4.3 percent, the lowest level since September 2001.

Treasurys gained on the likelihood that the falling exports will lower GDP and the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to battle inflation.

snip>

Rising interest rates typically attract capital as investors seek out higher returns from fixed-income securities, such as certificates of deposit.

[UpInArms]

11. Dollar lower vs. Europeans, trims yen gain after trade

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38212.3685416667-817497944&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- The dollar remained lower vs. its European rivals and trimmed its gain against the Japanese yen after a report showed a widening of the U.S. trade imbalance. The U.S. trade deficit widened by 19.1 percent in June to a record $55.8 billion, the Commerce Department said. The trade deficit was well above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of a deficit of $46.9 billion. This is the largest one- month widening of the trade gap since February 1999. The dollar was quoted down 0.5 percent vs. Europe's shared currency, at $1.2299. The dollar rose 0.3 percent at 111.08 yen.

[54anickel]

13. Tax Burden Shifts to the Middle

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61178-2004Aug12.html

Since 2001, President Bush's tax cuts have shifted federal tax payments from the richest Americans to a wide swath of middle-class families, the Congressional Budget Office has found, a conclusion likely to roil the presidential election campaign.

The CBO study, due to be released today, found that the wealthiest 20 percent, whose incomes averaged $182,700 in 2001, saw their share of federal taxes drop from 64.4 percent of total tax payments in 2001 to 63.5 percent this year. The top 1 percent, earning $1.1 million, saw their share fall to 20.1 percent of the total, from 22.2 percent.

Over that same period, taxpayers with incomes from around $51,500 to around $75,600 saw their share of federal tax payments increase. Households earning around $75,600 saw their tax burden jump the most, from 18.7 percent of all taxes to 19.5 percent.

The analysis, requested in May by congressional Democrats, echoes similar studies by think tanks and Democratic activist groups. But the conclusions have heightened significance because of their source, a nonpartisan government agency headed by a former senior economist from the Bush White House, Douglas Holtz-Eakin. The study will likely stoke an already burning debate about the fairness and efficacy of $1.7 trillion in tax cuts that the president pushed through Congress.

more...

[UpInArms]

15. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

8:36AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.5. Futures market dips a bit as the record trade deficit feeds concerns about growth prospects; however, selling efforts kept in check as the PPI report helped quell inflation concerns

8:21AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.0. Positive bias persists ahead of the economic data, which includes the Trade Balance and PPI reports, at 08:30 ET... The earnings report from Dell and a Morgan Stanley upgrade of Cisco have the tech sector poised to lead the early action

8:03AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.0. A positive bias is evident in the futures market, which is setting the stage for a modestly higher start for the cash market... Supportive influences include Dell's reassuring earnings report and outlook, as well as a sense that the indices are poised for a bounce from recent selling activity

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight due to short covering and is working on an inside day as it consolidates some of this week's decline, which led to a breakout below July's low crossing at 1360. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the decline continues, a test of weekly support crossing at 1267.54 is possible later this year. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1343.40 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The September NASDAQ 100 was up 4.00 pt. at 1312.50 as of 6:49 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it consolidates below broken support marked by May's low crossing at 1097.50. The door remains open for a possible test of weekly support crossing at 1049.20 later this summer. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1078.65 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The September S&P 500 Index was up 0.80 pts. at 1064.60 as of 6:52 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer opening when the day session begins later this morning.

I have to run for an early morning appointment - so I shall miss the opening - be back later :hi:

[54anickel]

16. Fed Said Aggressive Policy May Be Needed

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve's policy panel in June saw a series of gradual interest rate rises ahead but acknowledged more aggressive steps may be needed, meeting minutes released on Thursday showed.

"Depending on the rate at which resource utilization increased and the level and trend of inflation, a more aggressive pace toward reaching a neutral policy stance might be called for so as to provide assurance of containing emerging inflationary pressures and averting the potential need for greater overall tightening," the minutes said.

snip>

"At more than $500 billion, the deficits in trade and current account balances are quite large in comparison with aggregate income," the minutes said, attributing the gap to America's low national saving rate.

"Financing of the deficits had recently included large foreign private purchases of U.S. securities and increased foreign official inflows," the June minutes said. "The staff noted that outsized external deficits could not be sustained indefinitely."

Still, the FOMC found such deficits could be quite persistent, adding large shifts were not necessarily imminent.

"The adjustment, once under way, might well proceed in a relatively benign fashion, particularly if fiscal, monetary and trade policies were appropriate, but the possibility that the adjustment could involve more wrenching changes could not be ruled out," the minutes said.

FOMC members concluded external imbalances would be best dealt with by fiscal policy, in the hands of Congress and the White House, and not monetary policy which "could best contribute by maintaining an environment of price stability that would foster maximum sustainable economic growth."

"Fiscal policy had had a potentially larger role to play by promoting an increase in national saving, but the adjustment would involve shifts in demand and output both domestically and abroad, and changes to U.S. fiscal policy alone would not be sufficient to foster the adjustment," the minutes said.

[54anickel]

18. Lesson of Iraq: High Oil Prices May Not Be Temporary

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/13/business/13norris.html

ID George W. Bush rely too much on diplomacy when he planned the war in Iraq?

The diplomacy in question was not the effort to line up allies for the war, which ended with much of Europe on the sidelines and angry. Instead, it involved what initially appeared to be a diplomatic victory: the quiet promise obtained from Saudi Arabia to step up oil production if necessary to offset a temporary decline in Iraqi oil exports.

That strategy was a good one in the Iraq war run by the first President Bush. As Jeffrey R. Currie, the head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs in London, noted this week, the Saudis at the time were able to offset the temporary loss of exports from both Kuwait and Iraq. There was a brief spike in oil prices when that war began, but they retreated as rapidly as they climbed.

But this time the Saudis have not been able to come up with the oil. They claimed this week to have another 1.3 million barrels a day of available production, but there is widespread doubt they can produce that much now, or even after two new fields go online later this year.

Why not? The international energy business has been starved of major capital investment for two decades, since the price swoon of the early 1980's scared oil companies.

more...

[54anickel]

19. The Esperanto of money

Goodbye, dollar. So long, euro and yen. Hello, dey!
Dey? It's a proposed combination of the three currencies, which could eventually form the basis of a global currency.

A worldwide money won't emerge any day soon. Still, it's a longtime dream of some economists, who point out several advantages to simplifying the jumble of nearly 190 currencies.

snip>

Still, there are moves to consolidate currencies - of which the euro is only the most obvious example. Eight former French colonies in Africa have long shared a common currency. Since 1981, the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank has provided the EC dollar to about a dozen island nations, including Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, Montserrat, and St. Lucia.

Next year, the Gulf Cooperation Council plans to launch a common currency for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Also in 2005, the West African Monetary Zone plans to introduce the eco to Ghana, Gambia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Nigeria.

more...

[KoKo]

25. An Economic PNAC for the world Monetary Sytem? PNWCC (Project for

the New World Currency Century):silly: Should we be worried about this...sigh....something else..

[54anickel]

20. Debt and Delusion

http://mises.org/fullstory.aspx?control=1579

Since the last serious outbreak of inflation in the 70s, central banks have conquered this pestilence and have practiced a responsible stewardship over national monetary systems ever since. Due in no small part to the benign inflationary environment that has followed their victory, stocks and bonds have outperformed historical averages. This reflects a high degree of confidence in future monetary stability and prosperity.

Or so we are constantly told.

That this consensus view is a twisted mirror of reality is the theme of an undeservedly obscure work of financial economics, Peter Warburton’s Debt and Delusion: Central Bank Follies that Threaten Economic Disaster. Published in 1999, the work rapidly went out of print but has since become a cult classic among financial contrarians.<1>,<2> Although not written from an Austrian point of view, the argument parallels an Austrian view of money and banking in many aspects. My purpose in writing this article is to present Warburton’s main argument and to interpret it through an Austrian lens.

snip>

Under a sound monetary system where credit cannot be created out of nothing, credit can only be the supply of savings by a lender. If credit is demanded in increasing quantities, borrowing must take place at ever-higher interest rates because savings are necessarily scarce; a higher interest rate is necessary to draw more marginal savers into parting with their cash. There is an inherent limit to the amount of borrowing that can occur: the point where savers cannot be enticed to part with any more present goods at any rate of interest. The reason that the pool of savings cannot expand indefinitely is because people only have so many assets that they can save, and everyone must engage in some consumption in the present.<7>

Yet, as the fire hose of government bond issuances has flooded international capital markets with debt issues, interest rates have not risen much, are now lower than in the 70s (a time of less borrowing), and for the last year have been at or near generational lows. It is dubious to maintain that the gargantuan volumes of bond purchases in recent years could have been funded out of savings when the US personal savings rate has also dropped to long-term lows.

This anomaly has not attracted much attention or investigation. Instead, most analysts now find this state of affairs to be utterly normal. An alleged quote attributed to Vice President Dick Cheney that "deficits don’t matter" perfectly summarizes the prevailing attitude.<8> Notes Warburton, "the incongruity of the massive accumulation of government and corporate debt with a low inflation environment no longer provokes much curiosity, even among professionals."<9>; and, "a stratospheric stock market has become accepted as the normal state of affairs, requiring no special explanation."<10>

more...

[KoKo]

22. An interesting article written in a way that even a clueless person like

myself about bonds and the relationship to national debt, can slog through it and learn something. I had to stop and print it though, to re-read later. It does give some info about "derivatives" which is a word we keep hearing and something we maybe need to know. :eyes:

Thanks for posting it. It's bad news about what's going on in our financial system, but at least I think (?) I understand a little better now as to how "they" (Greenspin and Co.) think they can get away with it all. :-(

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

21. Stocks Bounce Back!

http://money.cnn.com/2004/08/13/markets/markets_nyopen/index.htm

Up 24 early... :eyes:

[KoKo]

27. It's pretty bleak when they hope for Dell Computer to save the day.....

Fri 10:19am ET - CBS MarketWatch
Stocks gave pared early gains Friday morning as disappointing economic data and another spike in oil prices took the shine off encouraging numbers from Dell Computer.

[Caution]

23. Oil Future hit new record (again) $45.90/barrel

How long until we see $50/barrel and what kind of psychological effect will that have on the general market?

[UpInArms]

24. 10:30 EST Numbers and blather

Dow 9,831.18 +16.59 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,760.14 +7.65 (+0.44%)
S&P 500 1,064.68 +1.45 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.211% -0.039

10:00AM: Indices show no followthrough strength after decent open...the preliminary read on the August Michigan Sentiment Index came in at 94.0, down from 96.7 in July...that had a temporary, slightly negative impact on the market...oil prices are up 9 cents...Dell (DELL 34.71 +1.59) after their earnings report yesterday...

9:40AM: Indices open up a bit stronger than futures indications...upbeat comments from Dell and a lower-than-expected 0.1% increase in core PPI are the main reasons...oil prices are up a bit, and the record trade deficit are restraining the enthusiasm...

9:10AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. A modestly higher start is expected for the cash market, although some steam has been taken out of the futures market on the record trade deficit report and the awareness that crude futures again have a plus sign next to them (currently +$0.10 at $45.60/bbl)

8:36AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.5. Futures market dips a bit as the record trade deficit feeds concerns about growth prospects; however, selling efforts kept in check as the PPI report helped quell inflation concerns

dollar in the ditch

Last trade 88.19 Change -0.50 (-0.56%)

[54anickel]

26. 10:32 Numbers & yada

Dow 9,827.93 +13.34 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,760.06 +7.57 (+0.43%)
S&P 500 1,064.83 +1.60 (+0.15%)
10-yr Bond 4.213% -0.037
30-yr Bond 5.011% -0.037
NYSE Volume 256,524,000
Nasdaq Volume 306,926,000

10:00AM: Indices show no followthrough strength after decent open...the preliminary read on the August Michigan Sentiment Index came in at 94.0, down from 96.7 in July...that had a temporary, slightly negative impact on the market...oil prices are up 9 cents...Dell (DELL 34.71 +1.59) after their earnings report yesterday...

9:40AM: Indices open up a bit stronger than futures indications...upbeat comments from Dell and a lower-than-expected 0.1% increase in core PPI are the main reasons...oil prices are up a bit, and the record trade deficit are restraining the enthusiasm...

9:10AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.0. A modestly higher start is expected for the cash market, although some steam has been taken out of the futures market on the record trade deficit report and the awareness that crude futures again have a plus sign next to them (currently +$0.10 at $45.60/bbl)

[UpInArms]

29. 'Lying' Shell director gains £2.5m payoff

http://www.personneltoday.com/pt_news/news_daily_det.asp?liArticleID=25102

The Shell director who complained that he was “tired of lying” about the state of the company’s oil and gas reserves is to be paid £2.5m in compensation for losing his job.

Walter van de Vijver, who was head of oil exploration in the Anglo-Dutch multinational, will receive half of the €3.8m (£2.54m) settlement immediately. The remainder is being kept in escrow “subject to continuing co-operation with, and review by, relevant authorities”.

In addition, the former Shell director will receive an annual pension of €385,388 (£258,509) from June 2015.

...more...

[54anickel]

31. So, he loses his job because he wouldn't play the lie game, but he

gets a huge serverance package, and I'd bet his salary for being a liar wasn't chump change either. Yet shareholders are upset about his large serverance package rather than being irate about the lies the company was running on? :wtf:

[54anickel]

30. Today's WrapUp by Martin Goldberg 08.12.2004

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/goldberg/2004/0812.html

A Look Back at the Ganymede Rally
A Secondary Correction, or Beginning of a New Bull Market?

Profitless Internet stocks bid up to 500% gains over less than 14 months. Companies with unproven business plans, excessive debt and no shareholder equity, bid to market capitalizations of over $21 billion or more. Story stocks with price to earnings ratios of greater than 100, doubling in value in just a few months. Am I talking about the late 90’s Internet bubble? NO, these are just a few of the numerous examples of what happened during the Nasdaq rally that extended from October 2002 to January 2004. Tonight, I will take a technical look at this rally, which I refer to as the “Ganymede” rally. A look back at this rally is relevant because it provides insight into the future long-term trend of the market. Was this rally the beginning of a new Bull Market, or just a secondary correction within a longer term Bear Market?

snip>

Primary Bear Markets: A primary bear market is the long downward movement interrupted by important rallies. It is caused by various economic ills and does not terminate until stock prices have thoroughly discounted the worst that is apt to occur. There are three principle phases of a bear market: the first represents the abandonment of hopes upon which stocks were purchased at inflated prices; the second reflects selling due to decreased business and earnings, and the third is caused by distress selling of sound securities, regardless of their value, by those who must find a cash market for at least a portion of their assets.

I submit that not only have we not experienced the last phase of a bear market consisting of distressed selling, but we have not even began the second phase of the Bear Market yet. In fact, the first phase, consisting of “the abandonment of hopes upon which stocks were purchased at inflated prices”, is still very much in progress, and this is clear by examining the overly optimistic price to earnings ratios (P/E’s) that still predominate most of the Nasdaq-listed stocks. Examples are illustrated in the following chart of current Nasdaq favorite “blue-chip” stocks.

more...

[54anickel]

32. UPDATE - U.S. consumers get gloomier in August-survey

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040813/economy_consumers_2.html

NEW YORK, Aug 13 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers felt less
confident in early August than they did last month as high oil
prices and slowing job creation clouded expectations for the
economy, according to a private survey published on Friday.

The University of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment
fell to 94.0 in early August from 96.7 at the end of July, said
market sources who saw the subscription-only report. Economists
polled by Reuters had expected the index to rise to 97.50.

The current conditions component rose to 108.4 from 105.2
in July, but the expectations index dropped to 84.7 from 91.2.

"It's interesting in the sense that you have an eight-month
high on current conditions and a four-month low on
expectations,' said Steven Wieting, senior economist at
Citigroup in New York.

more...

[54anickel]

33. U.S. June Trade Gap Widens to Record $55.8 Billion

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit ballooned in June to a record $55.8 billion as imports of crude oil and other industrial supplies surged and slowing growth in Japan and Europe curbed export demand, according to a government report.

snip>

Economists had expected the gap to widen to $47 billion, the median of 65 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a deficit of $44 billion to $49 billion.

The economy grew at a 3 percent annual rate from April through June, the slowest in more than a year, as rising energy prices led to the weakest pace of consumer spending since 2001, the Commerce Department said last month.

The growth estimate may have included a trade gap prediction of $47.5 billion for June, said Tim Rogers, chief economist at Briefing.com, from his office outside Boston, and the Commerce Department may now reduce its estimate for second quarter growth as a result of the higher-than-expected deficit, economists said.

`Significant Revision'

``There is going to be a significant downward revision,'' said Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist with Societe Generale in New York. ``We have a huge deficit that needs to be financed, and getting that financed could be a question.''

more...

[54anickel]

34. Two-Day Explosion in Bond Offerings

http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/3100401/c_3100430?f=home_todayinfinance

Seemingly out of nowhere, a whirlwind of debt offerings descended on the bond markets in the past two days. At least 10 companies trotted out more than $8 billion in debt securities during that period, including three companies that completed jumbo offerings.

The rash of bond offerings compares to a mere $25.3 billion of new bonds that were sold in all of July, the third straight month in which bond sales lagged the amount of cash returned to investors through maturities and redemptions, according to Reuters. The news service cited CreditSights, the fixed-income research service, for its figures.

snip>

Meanwhile, Northrop Grumman Corp. remarketed $690 million of its 5.25 percent senior notes due 2006. As a result of the remarketing, the interest rate on the notes was reset to 4.079 percent, effective August 16.

The remarketing was required under the terms of the Northrop Grumman equity security units originally issued in 2001. Proceeds from the remarketed notes were used to buy U.S. Treasury securities that are pledged to secure the stock purchase obligations of the holders of the equity security units, according to the company. The Treasury securities will be held by collateral agent Bank of New York.

more...

[54anickel]

35. The bubble question

http://money.cnn.com/2004/07/13/real_estate/buying_selling/risingrates/index.htm

snip>

In May, the median price for existing single-family homes reached $183,600, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), even as mortgage rates had begun ticking higher. In May 2001, by comparison, the national median was $145,000.

snip>

That low interest rates have been the driving force behind real estate's unprecedented rise is not a point of debate among economists. Quite simply, lower rates mean buyers can afford higher home prices.

It stands to reason, then, that the opposite would be true. Yet, many economists have been arguing that higher rates won't hurt housing.

"The reason interest rates are higher is that we are in a growing economy," said NAR chief economist David Lereah in a recent release. The thinking, is that rising salaries and stock market returns can create enough wealth to offset the negative effects of rising mortgage rates.

"People are feeling much more financially secure," said Freddie Mac chief economist Frank Nothaft. "Families who are more financially secure are much more likely to buy a big-ticket item, like a house."

:smoke:

[54anickel]

36. Riding a white horse past corporate shirking

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2733533

Kelly Services, a staffing company based in Troy, Mich., provides temporary workers, some 14,000 in Texas, to companies worldwide.

In the past two years, Kelly has become a champion in the fight against SUTA dumping. SUTA is the State Unemployment Tax Act, the federal law that allows states to pay unemployment benefits using tax money collected from employers.

SUTA dumping is a scheme that enables companies with high employee turnover, such as Kelly, to duck paying their fair share of unemployment taxes. The practice, which exploits a loophole in tax laws, has kept an estimated $1 billion to $2 billion out of state treasuries during the past decade. In Texas, the difference is about $100 million annually.

snip>

About a decade ago, Kelly noticed some of its competitors were reporting lower tax rates, which reduced expenses and gave them a competitive advantage. That seemed odd because Kelly prides itself on retaining employees in a high-turnover field.

Every major accounting firm and several tax consultants urged Kelly to adopt a SUTA dumping plan to lower its taxes. Arthur Andersen (why am I not surprised?) even threatened that if Kelly didn't cut costs by dodging taxes, it would be violating its responsibility to shareholders and could be vulnerable to lawsuits.

[54anickel]

37. DOES THE ECONOMY HAVE CEMENT SHOES?

Guest commentary at the end of linked article. An argument for allowing the dollar to decline. :shrug:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/orlandini081004.html

No one knows how high this debt can go. "We're in new territory," said James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. "It can scare the jeebies out of a lot of people."

Still, Professor Godley and two colleagues - Alex Izurieta of Cambridge and Gennaro Zezza at the University of Cassino in Italy - made some projections on how the rising foreign debt load would limit economic growth. They assumed that the dollar would stay at current levels after declining 9 percent since 2002, and that the economy in the rest of the world would grow by 4 percent, on average, over the next four years. Then they factored in the propensities of Americans to import and export, and the impact of rising interest rates on the servicing of foreign debt. What they found wasn't pretty.

Under these conditions, for the United States' economy to grow by 3.2 percent per year, on average, over the course of the next administration, the American current account deficit would have to surge to an unprecedented 7.5 percent of G.D.P. over the next four years. The nation's net financial deficit with the world would widen to more than 50 percent of G.D.P.

These precarious finances could limit action on the budget deficit, despite the claims of the two candidates. President Bush says the deficit will pretty much take care of itself, mainly through faster economic growth that will increase government revenues and reduce entitlement spending. Senator Kerry says he can cut the deficit painlessly by scrapping some of Mr. Bush's tax cuts and reducing corporate subsidies and tax loopholes.

Neither of these options is a slam-dunk. As things stand now, it is questionable whether the United States can sustain brisk growth. But Mr. Kerry's plan would further reduce growth as higher taxes and lower spending cut into aggregate demand. And while lower budget deficits tend to reduce long-term interest rates and stimulate private spending, the over-indebted American consumer is unlikely to pick up the slack.

In fact, using the same assumptions as before on the dollar and foreign economic growth, Professor Godley and his colleagues found that if the next administration cut the overall government budget deficit by around 2 percentage points of gross domestic product, this could reduce annual G.D.P. growth by about 2 percent.

snip>

But it is unlikely that the dollar will be allowed to fall substantially. Pacific rim countries like Japan and China have resisted letting their currencies appreciate by intervening in currency markets. And Europe might oppose a further slide in the value of the dollar against the euro.

Indeed, while a fall in the dollar would help the United States economy, it would hurt the rest of the world. And the rest of the world might not like that.

more...

[54anickel]

38. U.S. Complains to Russia About Its Handling of YUKOS

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=5957745

(Here it comes, Shrub on his white horse to browbeat the Russians!)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration has complained to Russia about Moscow's clampdown on Russian oil major YUKOS and its driving effect on oil prices, U.S. officials said on Thursday.
U.S. national security adviser Condoleezza Rice, one of President Bush's closest aides, voiced strong concern about the situation last weekend in a telephone call to Dimitri Medvedev, chief of staff to Russian President Vladimir Putin, said a senior administration official.

Similar messages to Russia were expected in coming days from Secretary of State Colin Powell, Commerce Secretary Don Evans and Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, said the official, who asked not to be identified.

Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Jones expressed concerns during a visit to Russia two weeks ago, urging Kremlin authorities to approach YUKOS with consistency and predictability, a State Department official said.

China has also lodged a protest with the Kremlin, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Investors see new hope for Yukos

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/08/13/1092340470657.html?oneclick=true

Investors have breathed a sigh of relief after a Western bank was asked to mediate the Yukos oil saga in a sign many here saw as a Kremlin decision not to renationalise Russia's oil.

It came after top US officials piled pressure on President Vladimir Putin's administration to come clean about what it planned to do with Yukos amid fears of disruption in oil exports from the world's number two producing nation.

China - whose energy-starved northern regions rely heavily on Yukos - has done the same, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

Yukos produces about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day - nearly as much as the current maximum output of Iraq.

more...


Next we'll be seeing another article of how reserves have "increased" (we've already seen articles explaining the methods used to determine demand and reserves are flawed) or maybe Shrub will stop stock piling the strategic reserves to lower prices. Something that will temporarily lower prices and give Shrub the credit. :eyes:

[54anickel]

40. Dupe

[54anickel]

41. 12:09 lunchtime check in

Dow 9,818.42 +3.83 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,759.28 +6.79 (+0.39%)
S&P 500 1,064.94 +1.71 (+0.16%)
10-yr Bond 4.222% -0.028
30-yr Bond 5.017% -0.031
NYSE Volume 510,814,000
Nasdaq Volume 587,812,000

12:00PM: Stocks opened higher, supported by an encouraging earnings report from Dell (DELL 34.75 +1.63) and tame PPI data...Dell said that corporate demand was good, which was the type of statement the tech sector badly needed...in addition, the core PPI rose only 0.1% for July, less than the average 0.2% gain in the first half of the year...this suggests that higher energy prices have not had a broad effect on inflation, and least yet...still, the market has been unable to generate much momentum...the action has been lackluster and held within narrow ranges...volume is light...
the 10-year bond note is up 13/32 on the PPI data to yield just 4.22%...oil is up 45 cents after reaching yet another record high and sits at $45.95...the action may very well slow even more on this Friday afternoon in August...NYSE Adv/Dec 1963/1047, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1565/1191

11:25AM: There are no earnings reports due after the close today, and next week is very light...most of the major reports next week are from retailers...Lowe's, K-Mart, Home Depot, JC Penney, Saks, Staples, Limited, Ross Stores, Gap, and Nordstrom among others...the two largest, Wal-Mart and Target, have already reported and produced good numbers...Kohl's and several others also had good reports...NYSE Adv/Dec 1863/1095, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1547/1170

11:00AM: Volume is extremely light today, which is not surprising for a Friday in August...in fact, volume may very well tail off even more in the afternoon...at just 316 million on the NYSE right now, volume may barely breach 1.0 billion today...there simply isn't a lot to draw retail investors into this market...the Nasdaq most actives has all the typical companies, while the leading volume stock on the NYSE is Conseco (CNO 15.93 -1.22) whose chief executive resigned alongside a profit warning...the stocks was also downgraded by Deutsche Securities...NYSE Adv/Dec 1847/1005, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1559/1062

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1932 (59%) 1599 (53%)
Declines 1137 (35%) 1218 (40%)
Unchanged 162 (5%) 161 (5%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 262 (55%) 358 (64%)
Down Vol* 202 (42%) 183 (33%)
Unch. Vol* 9 (1%) 13 (2%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 18 11
New Lo's 72 143

[JNelson6563]

43. 12:19 fading fast

Dow 9,808.98 -5.61 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,757.85 +5.36 (+0.31%)
S&P 500 1,063.76 +0.53 (+0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.219% -0.031

Happy Friday the 13th everybody! :hi:

Julie

[UpInArms]

44. 12:39 EST

Dow 9,803.68 -10.91 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,754.42 +1.93 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,063.04 -0.19 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.213% -0.037

dollar

Last trade 87.97 Change -0.72 (-0.81%)

[UpInArms]

45. a couple minutes later and the DOW under 9800

Dow 9,793.94 -20.65 (-0.21%)
Nasdaq 1,752.34 -0.15 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,062.73 -0.50 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.215% -0.035

Will the buy programs kick in?

[54anickel]

47. You're too fast for me today!

[UpInArms]

48. just came in for a few minutes for a break

and was checking the numbers :D

:pals:

[54anickel]

46. 12:41, guess only the buyers took a lunchbreak

Dow 9,794.53 -20.06 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 1,752.34 -0.15 (-0.01%)
S&P 500 1,062.73 -0.50 (-0.05%)
10-yr Bond 4.214% -0.036
30-yr Bond 5.011% -0.037
NYSE Volume 577,021,000
Nasdaq Volume 668,689,000

No updated blather yet, guess they can't come up with anything again.

[loudsue]

53. Wasn't the stock market around 14,000 when Clinton was in office?

Now, we're dipping in and out of the 9700 - 9800 mark. Doesn't the American public, and the business community, see anything WRONG with Bush's economy? How can they keep supporting this bozo??

Ok. So it's not ALL bush's fault. Or, is it??? He hasn't DONE anything to wean us off of oil. He's spent every penny we'll ever make for the war on terra. He's taken tax revenues OUT of the gov't coffers, instead of putting them in, to be used for the General Welfare (in the constitution! the purpose of gov't!! to provide for the General Welfare!!).

<loudsue: predicting bad economic times ahead.>

:kick::kick:

[Zynx]

55. It was 11,700. The Dow has never topped even 12,000.

However, the Wilshire 5000 used to be at 15,000 and now is barely at 10,000.

[loudsue]

58. Thanks, Zynx! ....my bad!

That means we've lost about 2,000 points since bush got appointed. It's still pretty bad, but not as bad as I thought!

:hi: Thanks!

Sue

:kick:

[54anickel]

49. Just dreaming!

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=34986

I dreamt that the Bureau of Labor Statistics issued a new press release highlighting the unadjusted (raw) data they gathered from the employer survey, in addition to their adjusted data. If they did issue one in reality it would become clear that their Birth/Death Model ‘adjustment’ provides an altogether new meaning to the word ‘adjustment’. The following table lists the estimated ‘non seasonally adjusted’ number of total non-farm jobs added during the year from July 2003 through June 2004, along with the Birth/Death Model adjustments. The Birth/Death Model is supposed to account for the businesses that either have been recently started but are not in the BLS sampling universe or businesses that have expired but are still in the sampling universe. As stated on the BLS website, ‘There is an unavoidable lag between an establishment opening for business and its appearing on the sample frame and being available for sampling. Because new firm births generate a portion of employment growth each month, non-sampling methods must be used to estimate this growth’. All numbers below are in thousands.

snip>

The government entered into another one of my dreams the other day. I had gone to my banker, Mortgage Martha, a.k.a. MM, to get approved for a mortgage to buy a five bedroom six SUV-garage home. The lender did a routine credit check and approved my mortgage. Being somewhat crazy, I tried to understand her decision making process by asking her a few questions.

I: “My total debt right now is 50% of my annual income. Aren’t you concerned about approving me for a mortgage that is 400% of my annual income?”

MM: “Well, you see, we follow the standards set by the government. In 2003, the federal government’s total debt was 381% of its revenue, and in 2004, it is up to 410%.”

She pulled out the following chart:

more...

[UpInArms]

50. to dream of honesty

what a concept!

[54anickel]

51. Euro-12 Growth Unexpectedly Slows in Second Quarter (Update2)

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=a_NhTECcUQxY&refer=europe

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Economic growth in the 12 nations sharing the euro unexpectedly slowed in the second quarter, suggesting that rising exports weren't enough to trigger increased corporate investment and consumer spending.

Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services, expanded 0.5 percent from January-March, when it grew 0.6 percent, the European Union's Luxembourg-based statistics office said. Growth was less than the 0.6 percent median forecast of 35 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. From a year ago, the economy grew 2 percent, the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2001.

The euro region joins the U.S. and Japan in reporting slowing growth in the second quarter, raising concern that a global recovery may have peaked. Record oil prices and slowing demand from abroad pose risks to a European recovery that has relied on exports to lift growth from its weakest pace in a decade.

``The fact that growth has slowed down is a potential worry given concerns of the sustainability of the U.S. recovery, high oil prices and geo-political concerns,'' said James Knightley, an economist at ING Financial Markets in London. ``This underlines the disappointing performance of domestic demand within the euro- zone economy.''

more...

[54anickel]

52. America's Addiction to Asian Credit

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/texashedge/texashedge081304.html

Now, how do they pay for that deficit? They have to go borrow money. Most of it they borrow from the Chinese and the Japanese government. Sure, these countries are competing with us for good jobs, but how can we enforce our trade laws against our bankers? I mean, come on." -Bill Clinton at the 2004 Democratic National Convention

This quote by former President Bill Clinton was perhaps his most important quote in several years, yet the media didn't give it much attention. While Clinton's intentions were no doubt entirely political, it is worth some time to give a little thought to the growing purchases of US Dollars by Asian central banks.

Asian central banks have been financing America's $500 billion current account deficit mostly via the purchasing of US Treasuries. To get a better grip on this number, try to understand that America needs $1 million of Asian capital every minute in order to maintain its current standard of living. Asia presently holds over $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and shows no sign of reversing this trend.

While it is not news that Asia's reserves continue to increase, it is worth nothing that Japan, China, South Korea and other countries have started to reassess their appetite for US Treasuries. Some Asian finance ministers have spoken out openly about diversifying out of dollars and plowing reserves into alternatives such as gold and euros. As the dollar has fallen to record lows against several currencies, more international scrutiny has been applied to how the United States would fund its fiscal and current account deficits without Asian credit. If America doesn't decrease its dependence on foreign capital, the dollar could weaken further, forcing the Federal Reserve to choose between (1) protecting its currency by raising interest rates and choking off economic growth or (2) continue debasing the dollar which could potentially result in hyperinflation.

more...

[54anickel]

54. Snowjob

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=ant0UfcKfDwg&refer=top_world_news

U.S. exports dropped to $92.8 billion in June. Foreign businesses bought $26.2 billion worth of capital goods from the U.S., an 8.9 percent decline from the previous month and the biggest decline since September 2000.

The report ``reflects...that growth in the rest of the world appears to be slowing,'' Snow told reporters in Boca Raton, Florida. ``The United States is growing much faster than the rest of the world, and what that causes, of course, is this imbalance: we have more income and more prosperity. And part of that is used to buy goods and services from around the world.''

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/100763/1/.html

WASHINGTON : US Treasury Secretary John Snow said a "mild deceleration" in US job creation will be short-lived.

"The President (George W. Bush) and I want all job-seekers to be rewarded with paychecks and we know that the reward cannot come soon enough for them and their families," Snow told business leaders in Boca Raton, Florida, according to prepared remarks released here Friday.

"Even though lots of new jobs have been created in the last year, we're not satisfied," he said.

snip>

"I believe the recent mild deceleration in job creation will be short-lived," Snow said.

The underlying fundamentals of the economy were "very strong," he said.

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5971767

"The causes of higher oil prices are varied. In part it's the economy itself. The world economy is growing. China is growing and we've created a stronger demand for oil as a result," Snow said.

"Uncertainty about the Middle East has created a premium of maybe $6 to $8 to $10 a barrel, depending on which analyst you speak to," he said.

In response to questions about the increasing influence of China in the global economy, Snow said the Bush administration was making every effort to push China off its current policy of pegging its yuan currency to the dollar, which U.S. manufacturers claim gives it an unfair trade advantage.

"We've said very clearly, very forcefully... they need to move off this peg," Snow said.

"They can't do it immediately but they're taking steps to get there. There are signs of progress in a lot of areas but we can't let up, we won't let up," he said.

Snow was asked to comment on recent reports that some form of national sales tax might be implemented to replace income taxes, an idea the Bush administration has sought to distance itself from.

more...

[54anickel]

56. 1:53 update, and I gotta step out for a couple of hours - wonder how

they'll close today, up, down or flat?

Dow 9,815.11 +0.52 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,757.29 +4.80 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,064.44 +1.21 (+0.11%)
10-yr Bond 4.202% -0.048
30-yr Bond 4.997% -0.051
NYSE Volume 718,499,000
Nasdaq Volume 838,865,000

1:30PM: Limited action as the market averages vacillate slightly off of their respective midday lows (and support). How will the session end? The standard theory is that market participants look to square positions ahead of the weekend and given the pressure over the last few sessions the theory suggests potential for at least some upticks. However, since the S&P 500 topped on a Thursday (June 24) it has been down on 5 out of the 7 Friday's. SOX -1%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1818/1299, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1437/1465

1:00PM: The market indices put together a minor extension of the Snow/oil related downticks --crude oil futures spiked as high as $46.30 -- but both the Dow and the S&P 500 have attempted to stabilize near last week's lows (9793 and 1062, respectively). The Nasdaq Comp held at yesterday's low of 1752. Sectors continuing to hold on to a firmer bias include gold, oil, natural gas, computer-hardware with more modest strength in software, homebuilding and healthcare. Volume is running below the pace of the last few sessions at the Nasdaq and roughly in line with yesterday's pace at the NYSE. NYSE Adv/Dec 1784/1325, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1410/1456


Hmmm, big sudden rally going on here 1:56 :shrug:

Dow 9,826.17 +11.58 (+0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,759.54 +7.05 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,065.93 +2.70 (+0.25%)
10-yr Bond 4.200% -0.050
30-yr Bond 4.995% -0.053
NYSE Volume 725,968,000
Nasdaq Volume 846,761,000

[54anickel]

57. U.S. stock rally fades as oil spikes, data disappoints

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040813/13d25759b20764131a5f3d3e7673b0ee_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Stocks fell back to the flat line Friday afternoon as optimism over numbers from Dell Computer was overcome by disappointing economic data and a surge in oil to new highs.

snip>

"I think everybody's going to flatten out this weekend. Whether it's the Venezuelan elections or the Olympic games or just general nervousness, I think we're in an environment where trading types like to have very little risk over a weekend," said Andy Brooks, head of equity trading at T. Row Price.

Once again crude held a tight grip over Wall Street.

The commodity spiked to a record $46.30 as traders focused on developments in Iraq and a presidential recall vote in Venezuela this weekend. September futures were recently up 50 cents to $46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. See Futures Movers.

more...

[54anickel]

59. 3:02 and slipping into the close

Dow 9,806.71 -7.88 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,755.13 +2.64 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,063.33 +0.10 (+0.01%)
10-yr Bond 4.209% -0.041
30-yr Bond 5.002% -0.046
NYSE Volume 891,400,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,043,189,000

2:30PM: With little else to focus on at this point in the week, the market will be closely watching crude oil futures into its close (2:30 ET). A new high in oil ($46.50) has derailed the minor push off the midday lows in the market averages for the time being but overall relatively little has taken place on the day with tight ranges dominating. A little more buy side interest has developed in the beleaguered Semi sector with the SOX moving to a new afternoon highSOX -0.4%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1988/1205, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1501/1463

2:00PM: The market averages have put together a minor extension of the bounce off their midday lows in recent action although the trading pace has not picked up significantly. No further commentary from the Treasury Secretary to cool things off and oil has pulled back away from its fresh yearly highs this afternoon. Market internals are holding on to a neutral bias as the NYSE A/D line is firmer by a 5 to 3 margin (up/down volume even) while both of these ratios are slightly negative at the Nasdaq. NYSE Adv/Dec 1841/1305, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1449/1494

[UpInArms]

60. 3:33 numbers and blather

Dow 9,796.23 -18.36 (-0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,753.23 +0.74 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,062.04 -1.19 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.213% -0.037

3:05PM: The indices edged up slightly after the crude oil futures closed (new high of $46.65) at 2:30 ET but there was little behind it other than a semi index bounce back to unchanged. Some of the action today in oil has been related to traders positioning themselves ahead of Sunday's Chavez recall vote in Venezuela. Confined trade has dominated for the last several hours (Nasdaq in seven point range) with the range expanding to only 17 points following yesterday's sales data related pullback. Volume continues to slow this afternoon. NYSE Adv/Dec 1861/1330, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1469/1540

2:30PM: With little else to focus on at this point in the week, the market will be closely watching crude oil futures into its close (2:30 ET). A new high in oil ($46.50) has derailed the minor push off the midday lows in the market averages for the time being but overall relatively little has taken place on the day with tight ranges dominating. A little more buy side interest has developed in the beleaguered Semi sector with the SOX moving to a new afternoon highSOX -0.4%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1988/1205, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1501/1463

[The Magistrate]

61. Speaking Purely As A Card-Shark, Ma'am

My money would be on a determined run down to 9,500 by October....

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[UpInArms]

62. closing numbers and blather

Dow 9,825.35 +10.76 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,757.22 +4.73 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,064.80 +1.57 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.213% -0.037

briefing.com

Close: The market averages opened the session on a firmer note thanks to the encouraging earnings report from Dell (DELL 34.60, +4.3%) last night with the company stating that corporate demand was good. Also helping underpin off the open was the below consensus headline PPI (+0.1%) suggesting that higher energy prices have not yet had a broad effect on inflation. The early strength quickly dissipated with choppy trade on both sides of unchanged dominating for much of the day. Afternoon comments from Treasury Secretary Snow that the U.S. trade deficit shows that the world economy is slowing as well as yet another new high in crude oil futures (hit $46.65) kept the market on the defensive with new lows for the session, week, month and year established. However, a thinly traded recovery in late action lifted the indices to minor gains by the closing bell. Volume was on the light side with the NYSE and Nasdaq slower than the pace of the last few sessions as well as below average. Market internals were slightly positive. Russell 2000 +0.05%, SOX +0.3%, S&P Midcap 400 -0.07%, XOI +1%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1835/1400, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1516/1522

ino.com

The NASDAQ Composite index closed lower for the week due to rising energy prices, earnings concerns and rising interest rates. Weekly momentum indicators have turned bearish signaling that the intermediate trend has turned down and that sideways to lower prices are possible into early-fall; possibly into the presidential election. If the NASDAQ Composite index extends this summer's decline, a test of the 38% retracement level of the 2003-04 rally crossing at 1694.22 is possible later this year. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 1808.70 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

The September S&P 500 index posted a second consecutive weekly close below the 25% retracement level of the 2003-04-rally crossing at 1070.04. If September extends this month's decline, a test of weekly support crossing at 1049.20 is possible later this month. Weekly stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1078.76 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

The Dow closed slightly higher for the week but remains below the 25% retracement level of the 2002-04-ally crossing at 99.14. Earnings concerns, rising oil prices and rising interest rates continue to pressure the Dow. If the Dow extends this summer's decline, a test of weekly support crossing at 9585 is possible later this year. Weekly stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 9955 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the Dow.

dollar

Last trade 87.91 Change -0.78 (-0.88%)

oil

CLV4 Light Sweet Crude Oil Oct (NYMEX) 46.03 +1.19

I guess there were "buying opportunities" there at the pointie little end of the day :shrug:

[54anickel]

63. Well, looks like all 3 were successful in defending their 50 day MA

So far, so good for this Friday the 13th. 8 hours to go.