War with Russia is close, president of Georgia declares

[dArKeR]

War with Russia is close and it is necessary to prepare the people of Georgia for such an eventuality, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili warned in a newspaper interview published in France on Tuesday.

"We are very close to a war , the population must be prepared," he told the French-language Liberation daily newspaper.

Denouncing military aid from Russia to rebels in Georgia's break-away region of South Ossetia, Saakashvili stressed that he had "no intention of provoking it " and called for an international conference to discuss the status of South Ossetia.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2004/08/25/2003200152

[stevedeshazer]

1. That would be very bad news

Here's another link to the same story from New Zealand: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=3586717&thesection=news&thesubsection=world

[lottie244]

20. So, don't count on using Russian oil to bail us out!!

Another one of the fallouts of the war on terra. We are in such a quagmire and have squandered all of the national integrity we had left that we can little influence any events world-wide and soon we won't even have enough money to bribe our way.

[Lizzie Borden]

36. Thanks for that link.

.

[iconoclastic cat]

2. Fantastic.

Georgia v. Russia
Russia v. Chechnya
U.S. v. Iraqis
Iraqis v. Iraqis
U.S. v. Iran
Iran v. Israel
Israel v. PLO

What if we had a war, and everybody came?

[dArKeR]

3. You've been too kind to Bush you GOP sympathizer! LOL!

You've left off the entire continents of Africa and S. America. There are at least a dozen more for your list! (Cuba v. Miami Bush Cuban Mafia)

[iconoclastic cat]

4. Ah, yes, silly me. I forgot that Bush has indeed inspired global havoc.

Perhaps I will pin Northern Ireland on him too.

[wickerwoman]

12. Well, they did have a cease fire and things were at their most optimistic

in decades just before Bush came to power.

[Born Free]

18. "Ah, yes, silly me. I forgot that Bush has indeed inspired global havoc."

That is not what they say, remember the world is safer, better place now since the tough talking coward from Texas was appointed leader of the most powerful military in the world.

[qanda]

5. I was thinking the exact same thing...

Are we getting set for a World War?

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. Yuo got it

eternal war for eternal profit

[Sugarbleus]

7. Eternal profit but also religious zealotry......just as bad

nobody wins in that scenario. Pretty ugly looking global situation, IMHO

I believe that is why Kerry used his war record; to show those people who might be "afraid" of "what's coming next" that he has the wherewithall to deal with that (unlike George Rambo). He has the experience and the intelligence TO DO BETTER in foreign policy and matters of war.

[Xithras]

31. AFAIK, the Georgia/Ossetia thing isn't religious

They are two seperate ethnic groups fighting an ethno-nationalistic war. Under the USSR Ossetia was independent of Georgia, but South Ossetia was lumped into Georgia when the Soviets disintegrated. The Georgians promptly abolished the Ossetian language, made many public racist remarks about the Ossetians, and made it clear that they were going to Georgianize the Ossetian people. The Ossetians declared independence, the Georgians countered by stripping the Ossetians of all political rights, and a war ensued.

Russia was originally invited in by both sides as a peacekeeper, but Gerogia wants to resolve the situation once and for all. They are adamant that Ossetia belongs to them, and want to invade and restart the war. The Ossetians want the Russians to stay, and since the Russians wont leave until both sides ask, they are getting their way. The Georgians are now painting the Russians as pro-Ossetian and are labelling them as their enemy. Russia simply doesn't want to see another brutal civil war on its doorstep, and is worried about Chechens taking advantage of the war next door to smuggle in more weapons.

It's a screwed situation.

[Sugarbleus]

33. Thank you Very much for that ...... I appreciate it.

Nicely laid out historical/political history lesson.

My beliefs remain,however, that whenever religious zealoltry DOES come in....whereever that may be around the globe (sometimes clothed in "ethnic" rhetoric) I oppose it. In any case, blowing people up at large, in a sneak attack--whether by us or by someone else..is dirty indeed.

Again, thank you for this great informative piece. I learned something new today. :) Peace

[Dover]

8. Don't forget N. Korea...

eom

[MirrorAshes]

10. Wow. Scary freaking thought there.

Worse yet that it actually sounds conceivable.

[smirkymonkey]

34. Don't Forget US v. North Korea v. South Korea

Why don't we just blow the entire planet up and save ourselves the trouble?

:nuke:

[Tight_rope]

37. You forgot a few things

U.S. v. N. Korea (Just because)
China v. Taiwan
U.S. v. China (in defense of Tiawan...China is itching to get US back for shotting that commercial plan down when Bush first going into office)

We don't know what the status of Syria and Libya are yet. But rest assure they will jump in when we start the war in Iran.

G.Britain with probably take the side of US.

France will continue to enjoy their baggets and fine wine while the rest of the world is fighting.

[Nambe]

9. Duck and Cover cowboy. Shouldn't have messed with the big boy.

buba just wanted to see if you had any oil. Now he can't help you.

[Tight_rope]

38. You know I like that new name for Bush...We will start calling him "BUBA"!

[Yupster]

11. Well Georgia better do something to avert war

because a quick glance at the map doesn't look too good for their side.

[wickerwoman]

13. Does Georgia have nukes?

[whirlygigspin]

14. was wondering...tinfoil hat on...

if this has any connection to the two downed aircraft...?

[wickerwoman]

17. I wouldn't panic yet.

This announcement is a few days old.

Plus this is the Taipei Times, which strikes me as a bit sensationalistic. No offense to dArKeR, but if we listened to the Taipei Times, the U.S. would have been at war with China half a dozen times by now.

[JerseygirlCT]

43. Should have seen this before I posted below. I was wondering, too. nt

[Sufi Marmot]

15. I don't think so...

Someone will correct me if I'm mistaken, but I don't think there are any missles in any of the Caucasian countries (Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan).

-SM

[sweetheart]

16. I won't take that bet

You only state the official line. Imagine you are a senior military
officer of clandestine procurement in such a place. You have had
more than enough opportunity to hive away a few warheads for a just
in case problem. There was plenty of poorly guarded nukes in
georgia in former times. To presume that they all just walked away
back to russia makes good fairy tales, but does not match with
local nationalism and self defense from a local border bully (russia)
who has bad manners to say the least.

[Sufi Marmot]

22. Were there ever any in the Caucasus to begin with?

I don't know that the Soviets ever had missiles in those regions to begin with. I'll try to poke around online later today to see what I can come up with.

-SM

[ze_dscherman]

19. No

There was a large US. sponsored program to return all the nukes to Russia. None of the former Soviet Republics has nukes anymore. At least in the official version.

[Sufi Marmot]

35. My understanding is...

...that during the Soviet era nuclear missiles were housed in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, but not in other Soviet republics with non-Slavic ethnic majorities who the Russians tended to view warily (ie the Caucasian and Central Asian republics). I'm not sure about the Baltics. (If this is wrong somebody please corret me!)

Georgia definitely has/had nuclear material, though.
Link

-SM

[Tight_rope]

39. Not to worry..Someone will soon sell it to them...Can't have a war without

NUKES....

[David__77]

21. Georgia would probably fikd quickly.

They would stand little chance against the Russian military if this came to be, but I doubt it will.

[AP]

23. Is this why they coup'd Schevardnaze? He wouldn't give them a war?

[dave123williams]

24. The BBC has been calling this for weeks....here's a pretty good analysis..

It's looking like the beginning of a proxy war with Russia...we're in ex-Soviet Georgia in a big way (we're currently loaning them their gun-money), and this is evidently not making our Russian friends very happy at the moment...note the very good regional strategic position of Ossetia (on the map incl with this story)...very good for launching planes to the south and east.

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/pp081604.shtml

This thing has all the hallmarks of an emerging war. Gun running, heated rhetoric, entrenchment, rabid nationalism from both sides, etc etc.

"Georgia’s strategic importance has resulted in an American military presence in the country to train its armed forces and assist in operations against Chechen fighters and Islamic revolutionaries who cross the border from Russia. The best-case scenario for the United States would be a reintegration of Abkhazia and South Ossetia into a Georgian state with a pro-Western government."

Yeah, and the worst case is two decaying ex-Soviet nuclear powers trying to annihilate each other.

Not surprisingly, the Russians are a little touchy about American 'advisers' being boots-on-the-ground in what used to be their breadbasket. There's some pretty heated rhetoric about this in Pravda in the last few days.

Not a thing about this in the American media, of course. Won't we all be surprised when Tom Brokaw springs this one on us...

[donkeyotay]

26. What, Americans left clueless again?

Welcome Dave123Williams,

I agree that this story is a more important than it looks right now. Those neocons have been hard at it. Remember when they were talking about how the war on terror would be fought in many ways in many places? Well, this is one of them. No, I can't imagine the Russians are very happy about this. I don't know what they can do about it, but in the long run I get the feeling this administration's motto should be "quagmires R us."

[dave123williams]

28. National Psyche...

Yeah; we have a bit of a problem looking beyond our own borders for things that might be real-world threats...the neo-con ideology is pretty near-sighted, bullying. There seems to be a disconnect between the ideas they've subscribed to in their think-tanks, and real-world conditions. IMHO, they're a bunch of myopic, dangerous lunatics who need to get voted out, like yesterday.

Even the wisest among us can't see all ends, and these guys have proven themselves to be anything but.

There seems to be a couple of factors at work here; the first is an anti-intellectualism that probably got its foothold in the US around 1981. This kind of manifests itself in our 'swagger'. Some people here think that this is enough...swagger. I would imagine that most of the people who engage in it have seen one John Wayne movie too many.

While that's scary enough, if you couple it with an intolerance for dissent, and open-ended war, you get what could be the beginning of a rigid autocracy. The funny thing is that most Americans don't want that, and believe that it can't happen here....the irony is that they believed the same thing of 9/11...that it couldn't happen here.

I'm afraid that by the time the voting public wakes up, it'll be too late. Then I'll have to move to New Zealand, probably ;)

[Tight_rope]

40. Welcome to DU dave123williams!. Thank You for th info and maps.

[dave123williams]

47. My pleasure...good to be here :)

[Tight_rope]

41. Now we know why Bush was moving 70,000 troops closer to Russia's

boarders...They know this shit was coming. But the useless Media refuses to inform the US people because they don't want us to "LIVE IN FEAR"....How ironic!

[dave123williams]

44. He is? WTF?

Do you have links on this?

[Sufi Marmot]

48. How do we benefit from this?

AFAIK, the last thing the US wants is further unrest in the Caucasus, what with the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline and foreign Islamists in Chechnya.

What about the role of organized crime? Much of the Caucasus is run by clans whose business enterprises are of dubious legality.

"The best-case scenario for the United States would be a reintegration of Abkhazia and South Ossetia into a Georgian state with a pro-Western government." Not sure I entirely agree with this - I almost think it would be better for the US to convince/bribe Georgia to let them go.

Would, sometime down the road, Saakashvili trade South Ossetia and/or Abkhazia for EU and/or NATO membership?

-SM

[Dyedinthewoolliberal]

25. So this is great news!

NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The world is going mad and there ain't a damn thing anyone can do about it.........

[JVS]

27. My money is on Russia

[snooper2]

29. Is this Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell?

Our X-Box games are getting too real...

[dave123williams]

30. Splinter Cell...

It's the old addage; life imitates art imitates life.

[Aidoneus]

32. surreal statement.. Russ.FM condemns "militarist rhetoric" of Georgians

2004-08-25 20:08 * RUSSIA * FOREIGN MINISTRY * GEORGIA *
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY CONDEMNS MILITARIST RHETORIC OF GEORGIAN AUTHORITIES

MOSCOW, August 25 (RIA Novosti) - The Georgian government had better focus its efforts on tackling socio-economic problems rather than spend time and energy searching for an outside enemy, officials at the Russian Foreign Ministry believe.

"Against the failure of a military venture in the breakaway republic , all the more evident are Georgia's acute socio-economic problems, on whose solution the Georgian leadership should focus all their energy instead of channeling it into the search for a non-existent outside enemy or the undermining of operations of the Russian Embassy in Tbilisi," the ministry says in a comment.

The comment comes after President Mikhail Saakashvili's statement that Georgia is on the brink of war and that if a war does break out, it will be with Russia, not South Ossetia. Russian officials say this statement shows the lack of the sense of proportion, bordering on irresponsibility.

"Militarist rhetoric has been increasingly prominent in statements by Tbilisi officials of late. On more than one occasion, hints and accusations have been made against the 'northern neighbor', alleged to be the source of all troubles and conflicts in Georgian territory. But the most recent statements reveal the lack of the sense of proportion, bordering on irresponsibility," the ministry says in its comment.

--snip--

http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=4765032&startrow=1&date=2004-08-25&do_alert=0

[JerseygirlCT]

42. Is it really, really stupid

to then speculate about those downed planes?

[dave123williams]

46. Probably unrelated...

My guess is that it was Chechyan separatists; totaly Islamist radical nutjobs, bent on kicking Russia in the nuts - same people who took over that theater in Moscow a couple of years ago...

If the Georgian thing explodes, it'll probably be your average, straight-up state vs state thing...IMHO.

[Vladimir]

45. Given Russia's current state

my money is on Georgia...