The market says Bush to get boost from convention

[Nambe]

NEW YORK (AFX)

President Bush's stock is rising in the markets -- literally. Forward contracts tied to the outcome of the presidential election show that Bush is enjoying a convention boost, even in so-called swing states that could determine who the next president will be. Prices for a contract that will pay $100 for a Bush victory are at $57 on the Ireland-based Intrade Exchange. That's up from a range of $47 to $53 as recently as two weeks ago. .. State-specific contracts predicting a Bush victory were selling for $57 for Florida, up from $50 on Saturday; $64 for Missouri, up from $53; and Pennsylvania, at $39, up from $30 over the same period. On the smaller Iowa Electronic Markets, a market based at the Tipple School of Business at the University of Iowa, Bush's contract was quoted at $54.30 on Tuesday, compared to $46.30 for Kerry. Another IEM contract that follows the popular vote showed Bush with a $51.33 last trade price. Kerry was quoted at $49.90. ..

During the past four elections, IEM's average forecast error has been about half that of the major polling organizations. The exchanges' accuracy has been so high, in fact, that last summer the Pentagon proposed creating a futures market that would focus on various potential terrorist threats. The hope was that trading on this exchange would provide valuable intelligence to national security agencies. A political backlash killed the idea, but the point that these markets are strong predictors was made. Traders world Critics say futures markets dealing in nonfinancial commodities are simply online gambling rackets. ..

[Eurobabe]

1. yeah all the way back to Crawford!!

may the good news will just scare the shit out of apathetic voters and get them to the polls. It's all gonna come down to turnout. The old paradigm is dead.

[librechik]

2. I hear they expect a 15-20 point bump--similar to other incumbents

of course, if they don't get that much, Bush will be a statistical miserable failure as well as a political one.