"The End of the Western World we have known since 1945"

[atfqn]

The upcoming events in Iran promises to have grave military and economic implications. I am hoping the members of DU are noticing the bells and whistles the economists are blowing.

Written by LEAP/E2020
Friday, 17 February 2006

March 20 to 26, 2006: Iran-USA, beginning of a major world crisis, or « The End of the Western World we have known since 1945 »

The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020, LEAP/E2020, now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020.

...

A world crisis declined in 7 sector-based crises
LEAP/E2020's researchers and analysts thus identified 7 convergent crises that the American and Iranian decisions coming into effect during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a total crisis, affecting the whole planet in the political, economic and financial fields, as well as in the military field most probably too:

1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar
2. Crisis of US financial imbalances
3. Oil crisis
4. Crisis of the American leadership
5. Crisis of the Arabo-Muslim world
6. Global governance crisis
7. European governance crisis

The entire article found here: http://www.newropeans-magazine.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3463&Itemid=85

[FloridaPat]

1. More good news I see.

[Deja Q]

2. All I know is

I'm trying to live as happily as I can.

I could be ran over by a bus tomorrow.

Whatever happens. And for once in my stinkin' life I fuckin' refuse to be depressed or pessimistic. (ironic, isn't it?)

[Bellamia]

21. Ironic?

Yeah, but it's intelligent, good for you. I live one day at a time, also as happily as I can.

[pitohui]

3. seems like speculation not late breaking news EOM

.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. I'm going to a Dances of Universal Peace camp the weekend

of the 25th. I'm sort of glad I'll be with my brothers and sisters as we pray for peace.

[melody]

5. Newropeans not so hot as a source

Newropeans is not a terribly sound source for information, imho. They're in favor of the economic decline of the US, so they would naturally find reasons to hope for this. Their views are as suspect as all the pro-Bush economic sites saying "it won't happen". I opt for more middle of the road approaches myself.

What is going on now is really more a grab for control of the US. The economic outcome will be brutal, but can be dealt with. I'm not counting on any outside source of income beyond personal savings, 401K, etc, for a number of years. I think most Americans can kiss our first world status goodbye.

What frightens me is what will happen between the US and the former allies who brought this about, more than the potential conflict with Iran.

[atfqn]

19. I realize they are not the best source

however, they succinctly put everything together in a small package. The information can be gathered with a quick google search but how many people are doing that? Not to mention the fact that the title is a great attention grabber.

[FloridaPat]

6. What is "the launch of a monetary policy to support US economic activity"

What is this policy?

[Demeter]

9. First We Kill All the Fascists

Then brainwash the religious whack jobs and educate their children in the hard sciences. Oh, and a confiscatory estate tax for net worth exceeding 80th percentile, and ditto for income (especially unearned).

[melody]

12. they don't have one, I'm sure

Beyond protecting themselves. I think we'll see an economic version of Katrina.

In the long term (if this is as bad as some say), we'll have to stop all imports, at minimum. Prices will rise, income will fall.

Some forces in the global economy (including BushCo) are behind this. They know very well what needs to be done. Whether they will do it, is another thing entirely.

[rwenos]

7. Pshaw

I'm the first to pay attention to global trends, but I don't see chaos in the American economy. Earnings of American corp's are good (sadly, most on the back of workers, layoffs and benefit cuts), and I don't see a dollar crisis. Else why would interest rates remain relatively low? If rates were at 15% or 18% (which they were in the late 1980's, the last moment of high financial and geo-political crisis, it would be a different thing.

I smell a big fat Euro rat -- i.e., a currency run on the Euro. Maybe this is a sign of some inside baseball on the part of money men in Paris and Zurich?

Also, Georgie doesn't have the political critical mass yet. He's got to scare us some more before he can invade and/or bomb Iran.

[melody]

10. that's part of it, but there is going to be a big impact

Not just on us, but also on the UK. They have their fall back position in the EU, though, and we don't.
We're going to be hurting for awhile, with no one to help us. That goes doubly for we common American peons.

[rwenos]

14. No Criticism -- But based on What?

I really would like to hear where the gloom and doom is coming from. I know about Iran, I know about the Brits.

What are you referring to?

[melody]

15. Google "Iranian oil burse"

Some of this is anti-US globalist propaganda, some is pro-US globalist propaganda. There are some good pieces of substantive information though.

[atfqn]

20. Simply put

if oil is allowed to be traded in euros instead of dollars, there will be a significantly smaller incentive for foreign countries to continue purchasing our debt and using dollars/bonds as long term cash reserves. Secondly, the dollar has much of it's current strength because oil is traded in dollars. The dollar is only worth what people perceive it to be worth. It has no correlation to gold or silver - only through our word (faith/promises) and military might are we able to substantiate the value of the dollar. Please note that is an extremely simple explanation.

[Auntie Bush]

8. So what should we do to prepare for this inevitable crisis?

What should we do with our money? Keep it in dollars? Buy Euros?
Buy gold? Buy stocks or bonds. Buy yen?

[melody]

11. I'm moving all my 401 K from stocks to safer bonds

Not that anything is entirely safe.

I've been told gold is going to be iffy for awhile.

[Hardrada]

13. Somebody already bought all the gold coins

at our local antique mall anyway.

[atfqn]

16. The correction

people were looking for in gold seems to have come on the 7th when it made the largest drop in eight years. With the inflation creep, the discontinuance of publishing the M3, the inverted bond yields, the largest trade deficit in US history and finally the Iranian Oil Bourse practically promises that world gold/silver prices will rise as people look for safer long term investment vehicles and shed dollar reserves.

As for the economy being strong and peachy, I would recommend people take a closer look at the negative savings rate, the GDP - the MEW. The rising CPI and finally the fact that Bernanke has promised to bathe the markets in dollars so that it remains liquid.

I am not saying run for the hills, I just wanted to point out there are some serious concerns coming to a head in a little more than a month.

[melody]

17. Good info on gold, thanks!! n/t

[Karenina]

24. Beware the Ides of March.

[formercia]

18. Buy a gun

and lots of ammunition.

[HockeyMom]

22. I have grown daughters

I worry more for them than me. What a country they are inheriting.

[atfqn]

23. Curious

I have to wonder if mentioning Bush impeachment, or Cheney arrested would get more awareness to this topic.

[Kablooie]

25. Yeah, but I saved 71$ on my car insurance!! Isn't that great!?

[4dsc]

26. Nothing happened??

EOM

[DavidDvorkin]

27. Oops! They meant next week!

The true last week of March. Just a typo. Prophecies are like that.