A Philippine civil war is now a real possibility

[IndianaGreen]

A Philippine civil war is now a real possibility

First posted 02:13am (Mla time) Feb 25, 2006
By William Esposo
INQ7.net

AS OF this writing, the events of the first 11 hours of Feb. 24, 2006, have brought the country closer to the brink, thereby increasing the prospects that all this can escalate into a civil war. Madame Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo may have removed a serious threat to her tenuous hold on the presidency but there is reason to believe that we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg of the crisis that the "Garci tapes" unleashed.

What I am sharing with my readers in this article is the benefit of insights, sources and perspectives that I have gained from my own experiences as an EDSA People Power I and II veteran, as a member of the Cory Aquino administration that had weathered violent coup attempts in 1987 and 1989, as chairman of the Council on Philippine Affairs (COPA) and as a political writer and analyst. My political background has equipped me with the ability to see through psychological warfare tactics and recognize the real strategic movements that make the important events happen as well as the real players who direct the course of these events.

In previous columns, I had predicted that the festering issues surrounding the alleged stealing of the 2004 elections would mobilize more than just the political forces that are affected by it but also the citizenry and a now very politicized military. I had warned against the increasing rumblings in the military among its junior officers over the issues of corruption within its own ranks and the unsettled issues regarding the 2004 presidential elections. In the 11 hours from 1:00 a.m. to 12:00 noon of Feb. 24, all these forecasts came to pass.

From all the people who I have talked with in the past 36 hours, from my contacts in the multi-sector groups (ranging from the right to the left of the political spectrum) who I’ve met when I was COPA chairman, from my interpretation of events and announcements of the key players involved in this national drama -- I have drawn the following conclusions:

http://news.inq7.net/viewpoints/index.php?index=2&story_id=67407&col=69

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. Scary :^(

[bemildred]

2. Thanks for putting that up.

I was wondering what was up with that crisis. Another colonial conglomerate showing signs of fracture. Maybe we can invade them again. Don't they have some Muslims there?

[cliss]

3. I checked and here's what I found out -

Muslims in the Philippines?

Philippine population: 84 million. Christian: 84%. Muslim: 5%. Other: 11%.

Term Moros (Filipino Muslims) is label given by Spanish in 16th century to thirteen ethno-linguistic groups, mainly concentrated in south-western Philippines. Under Spanish rule, colonial authority not extended to Moro areas. Philippines under U.S. rule from 1899 to 1946. Christian Filipino settlement encouraged in Muslim areas.

Emergence of separatist movement among students and intellectuals in late 1960s; gained popular support after eruption of communal violence in Cotabato in 1970. Developed into armed movement; after much debate, Organic Act passed in 1989 allowing for creation of an autonomous region in Muslim Mindanao, followed by plebiscite in which four provinces (Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi) opted for inclusion in Autonomous Region for Muslim Mindanao. Final Peace Accord signed between government and Moro National Liberation Front in September 1996.

School(s) of Fiqh
Muslims are almost all Shafi.

Message to the US: uh-oh.