On the Mystery of Muqtada al-Sadr's Disappearance (JUAN COLE)

[laststeamtrain]

On the Mystery of Muqtada al-Sadr's Disappearance

US government sources are saying that nationalist Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr fled to neighboring Iran three weeks ago. Sadrist aides denied the report.

This on a day when two major bombings left 66 persons wounded or dead in the capital, and 20 bodies were found in the streets of Baghdad. In the southern city of Amara, two Mahdi Army fighters were killed in clashes with the police.

This USG report about Muqtada broke after midnight Baghdad time, so there has not been time for the Arabic or Persian press to react. I'll know more Thursday morning.

Sadr aides denied to the LA Times that Muqtada is in Iran, saying he is in hiding in Iraq.

The press record I assembled, below, does not support Muqtada's disappearance to Iran. It is possible but not likely that Muqtada would go to Iran. He and his family have endlessly made fun of the al-Hakim clerical leaders for fleeing to Iran to escape persecution by Saddam Hussein, when the al-Sadrs insisted on staying in Iraq. Muqtada's father was killed in 1999 by Saddam's agents because he stayed and gave defiant sermons. So it would be a lot of crow to eat for Muqtada to go to Iran to escape the Americans. Plus, there is nothing in the Iranian press about him showing up in Qom, and an Iranian diplomat denied the story. Without more and better evidence, this account strikes me as suspect, and I would guess that if Muqtada disappeared, it is inside Iraq.

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http://www.juancole.com/2007/02/on-mystery-of-muqtada-al-sadrs.html

[iconoclastic cat]

1. Could going after Sadr in Iran be Bush's rationale for war with Iran? nt

[acmavm]

2. I think that they're going to try to cook up multiple reasons for

the attack on Iran, this being just one of them.