You can't win with civil wars (like the one in Iraq)

[Lionel Mandrake]

History teaches that conflicts like Iraq drag on and rarely produce peace deals.
By Barbara F. Walter
October 2, 2007

Since the beginning of the Iraq war, President Bush has made it very clear that we will stay in that country for as long as it takes to get the job done, and that the United States will prevail in the end. This mantra allows the president to avoid admitting failure, but it ignores everything we've learned about civil wars since World War II.

The approximately 125 civil wars -- conflicts involving a government and rebels that produce at least 1,000 battle deaths -- since 1945 tell us several things: The civil war in Iraq will drag on for many more years; it will end in a decisive victory for either the Shiites or the Sunnis, not in a compromise settlement; and the weaker side will never sign a settlement or lay down its arms because it has no way to enforce the terms.

Civil wars don't end quickly. The average length of all civil wars since 1945 is 10 years. Conflicts in Burma, Angola, India, the Philippines, Chad and Colombia have lasted more than 30 years. Wars in Afghanistan, Cambodia, Lebanon, Sudan and Peru have lasted more than 15 years. Even Iraq's previous civil war, fought against the Kurds, lasted 14 years.

This suggests that, historically speaking, Iraq's current civil war could be in its early stages, with nothing to suggest that it will be a short, easy war.

Another lesson from history is that the greater the number of factions involved in a civil war, the longer it is likely to persist. Iraq simply has too many factions, with too much outside support, to come to a compromise settlement now. Not only is there no Shiite or Sunni who can speak for all of his side's factions, but the parliament seems incapable of stopping the violence between these groups.

Read the whole article: http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-walter2oct02,0,7011276.story?coll=la-opinion-rightrail

[zbdent]

1. Seems like a lot of people haven't gotten over losing the Civil War

battled in the U.S. ...

[Lionel Mandrake]

2. The US Civil War illustrates the point

that a civil war is usually decided by the complete victory of one side, not by negotiated settlement. That's why US meddling in Iraq was and still is a big mistake, according to Barbara Walter. The chicken hawks in Washington DC won't listen to her, but they should.