Hillary Clinton *Must* Win In New Hampshire

[ihavenobias]

(From HP, Link at the bottom)

Hillary Clinton is a juggernaut. You're not going to get past her with one lucky punch. Obama might have knocked her down last night, but it's going to take three of those knockdowns before she is down for the count.

Here's the problem for Senator Clinton: She already has one strike in Iowa and South Carolina is a guaranteed third strike (yes, I just mixed my sports analogies, but roll with the punches (yes, I guess that pun was intended)).

I could be wrong, but I doubt it. I'm calling South Carolina for Obama now. Let's get real. About fifty percent of South Carolina Democratic primary voters are black. If they thought Obama wasn't viable, they would seriously consider Senator Clinton. But now that Obama is on the precipice of winning this thing, no way he doesn't get a gigantic portion of the African-American vote.

As Chris Rock said when he was introducing Obama at the Apollo recently, " want to be on the right side of history, because you'd be real embarrassed if he won and you wasn't down with it. 'Oh man, I can't call him now. I that white lady. What was I thinking? What was I thinking?!'"

So, I guess it's really Chris Rock calling South Carolina for Barack Obama. I think what he's talking about in jest is very real though. So, it would be a major surprise if Obama lost South Carolina with this kind of momentum.

So, that leaves New Hampshire. That also makes this do or die for Hillary Clinton. Even she can't lose three in a row and survive. If she loses New Hampshire, this thing is over.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/cenk-uygur/hillary-must-win-in-new-h_b_79857.html

[Buzz Clik]

1. Not really. She could come in third again and still survive.

She needs to keep close, but that's it.

[provis99]

3. agree.

Super Tuesday is the only thing that counts. Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada are only exhibition games. They ain't the Superbowl of Super Tuesday (sorry for the sports analogies of my own).

[Buzz Clik]

4. If she's still sliding on Super Tuesday, it's time to cue the sad music and concession speech.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. It's about momentum.

You may look to Iowa, NH, SC and Nevada as only exhibition games, but it's more than that. If Clinton loses Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, she will have ZERO momentum heading into Super Tuesday. She needs some traction, anything that would give her campaign life support heading into that big day. If she's down 0-4 in the early voting states, especially if Obama wins every one of those states, you can kiss goodbye any chance of getting the momentum needed to win enough states on Super Tuesday.

You compare it to exhibition games, I compare it to a single game. Obama is now up 10 at the end of the first quarter and if he wins New Hampshire, he'll be up 20 at the half. It's possible for Hillary to make a comeback in the second half, however, if she loses South Carolina -- and momentum would definitely be on Obama's side -- it would be like entering the fourth quarter of a game down 30. Or basically, a snowballs chance in hell of making a comeback.

[DangerDave921]

13. History

In the last 36 years (9 election cycles for those math-challenged folks out there), a candidate has never won both Iowa and New Hampshire and lost the nomination. This is true for both Repub and Dem. So if Obama wins NH, it is all but over for HRC. Not a total done deal of course, but it would be an uphill battle.

[Buzz Clik]

15. Well, okay, but.... that's a tad misleading.

How often has that acutally happened?

[DangerDave921]

16. well

that will require a little further research. :)

[Drunken Irishman]

5. heh, ok, Buzz.

If Clinton does not win NH, she is done. People can spin it all they want, but if she does not win, she'll be 0-2 in states many thought she would win just a month ago. You can't reverse that kind of momentum, especially since it will most likely bring about change in South Carolina. If Obama wins NH, he will win the nomination.

If he loses NH, then it's a race again. But Clinton cannot, just like Obama could not, fall down 0-2 in the first two opportunities at proving you are a viable candidate. Clinton needs to prove she can win and losing both Iowa and New Hampshire, however close, will go along way at solidifying the belief she can't get it done.

Just as New Hampshire was a must win for Dean in 2004 (he lost and lost the nomination), it will be a must win for Clinton this year.

[Buzz Clik]

10. Dean just didn't lose, he was destroyed and his train derailed.

Clinton, is she does lose, will lose by a small margin.

This is just getting started. Neither New Hampshire nor Iowa are worthy indicators of the rest of the country. And they represent only 4% of the number of contests and a lot smaller fraction of the population.

So, let's bookmark this thread. Whoever is wrong gets to issue a public concession.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. I'd say a 9 point loss in a caucus you were expected to win is a pretty good thumping.

Will Obama walk away with New Hampshire? No, but even if he wins by 3-5 points, it's still a victory and it will be difficult for the Clinton campaign to spin it in a positive way. The fact is, this is Clinton's first real test when it comes to viability and being down 0-2 will be a big disaster for her campaign. Obama is gaining momentum and if he wins New Hampshire, I expect that momentum to carry him to South Carolina and then possibly Nevada. If Obama is 4-0 entering Super Tuesday, which he most likely will be if he wins NH, then this race is pretty much over.

And yes, bookmark this thread. If Obama wins New Hampshire and doesn't win the nomination, I will admit I was wrong. However, I feel pretty confident that if Obama wins New Hampshire, he will be the Democratic candidate in the general election.

[TwilightGardener]

2. She's essentially done if she loses NH--but she'll fight to the bitter end, of course.

[TheWraith]

6. She's going to lose New Hampshire.

It was dead even before this, and there's no way that she can recover from Iowa in just 96 hours.

[OHdem10]

7. HRC only took a punch-Down but not out.

After all is said and done she will be our nominee.

I just hope Edwards can stay in long enough to keep her aware
of the importance of his message. If he could win, i would
be joyous. Reality hits me in the face every now and then.

Hilary listen to John Edwards.

[SoFlaJet]

9. Does anyone else think

that there's a place for Al Gore at the convention as our nominee? I'm not sure this country is ready to elect an African-American for president...I'd vote for him and I'd vote for either Edwards (still my choice) and even Hillary Clinton...but man I'd HATE to lose the Oval Office when it's ripe for the picking-which sadly, I can see happening if Barrack is our nominee

[tired_old_fireman]

12. I think last night's results suggest otherwise

An awful lot of people came out in a very white state to vote for Obama.

[ihavenobias]

14. I hope you're right

but I am a little worried that the bad weather kept the old people inside (to drink warm milk and Metamucil while watching reruns of Matlock and Murder She Wrote) while the young people *finally* came out after years of claims that they would.

The real question is, now that he's the front-runner, how will the media treat the smear machine that will kick into high gear (regarding Obama/Osama, his middle name, the madrassa and other such nonsense)?

And also, will the old people take back control (and the typically fickle young flake out) as the weather improves?

It's ridiculous that such things might influence an election but it doesn't make it any less true.

[tired_old_fireman]

17. Those are valid concerns.

I guess we really won't know during the primary.

[ihavenobias]

18. The thing is

I don't think we'll even have to wait that long!

It's right around the corner...