Arabs have no appetite for Bush-style democracy

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Even as Bush was speaking in Abu-Dhabi the Iranian Foreign Ministry distributed to the ambassadors representing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in Teheran a message from the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad calling for broader cooperation. In December, for the first time in the history of that organization, the Iranian leader attended its summit and offered the Gulf monarchies to set up a joint regional security organization and more intensive economic and cultural ties. Now Ahmadinejad has renewed his calls timing them for the Bush visit to the region.

A simultaneous offer of security cooperation from Bush and Ahmadinejad might have been flattering for the regional leaders but for their fears that Washington and Teheran are simply settling their accounts with each other at their expense. What the Arabs would like least of all is to have to choose between them.

For the Arab Gulf countries the United States is an (admittedly demanding) ally and economic partner, while Iran is a long-time rival. Yet it does not mean that they would not like to maintain a stable relationship with Teheran, especially since the Arab street is more favorably disposed to it than to Washington. The main challenge of the local political elites is to preserve a balance of forces. In spite of their occasional verbal attacks against Iran, they are aware that interacting with it on every issue is a guarantee of stability in the region.

The Arab countries will eschew a confrontation with Teheran unless Teheran provokes an open conflict with them. Washington can hardly count on that: the Iranians are far too smart to allow such a course of events. Bush's words are unlikely to induce the regional leaders to set up a credible anti-Iranian coalition.

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080114/96615691.html