Since Nixon-Ford, the big spenders haven't been DemocratsFor almost 40 years, conservatives have portrayed themselves as fiscally responsible while deriding liberals as irresponsible free-spenders. Why, then, have all five Republican administrations going back to Richard Nixon enlarged the deficit far more than their predecessors, while both Democratic administrations either held it steady (Jimmy Carter) or erased it altogether (Bill Clinton)? And why is it that the more conservatives have stressed the importance of fiscal restraint, especially since Ronald Reagan, the more they've turned the deficit into a millstone around the economy's neck? (See box.)
The size of the budget deficit hit records in four of Reagan's eight years, two of the first George Bush's, and two, so far, of the current Bush. The $648 billion turn-around from large surplus to massive deficit in George W. Bush's first term is unparalleled in history. Bush promised to have it erased by 2012, but the promise is as hollow as his promise, in 2000, that the surplus he was inheriting was large enough to take care of tax cuts and leave enough money to save Social Security.
The deficit narrowed in the last three years, to $163 billion last year. But the Congressional Budget Office announced this week that improvements are over. The deficit for 2008 is projected to hit $219 billion -- not including the cost of the economic stimulus package currently being debated, which could add $150 billion to the deficit, or the costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which would add at least $30 billion, or the costs of a slowing economy, which would add billions in extra unemployment compensation and social services. A deficit back in the $400 billion range is possible.
· Nixon-Ford (R): Surplus was $3 billion when Nixon took office in 1969, deficit was $74 billion by the end of Ford's last year in office. Worse by $76 billion.
· Jimmy Carter (D): $74 billion deficit on taking office in 1977, $74 billion deficit in 1980. No change.
· Ronald Reagan (R): $74 billion deficit on taking office in 1980, $155 billion deficit in 1988. Worse by $81 billion.
· George H.W. Bush (R): $155 billion deficit on taking office, $290 billion deficit in 1992. Worse by $135 billion.
· Bill Clinton (D): $290 billion deficit on taking office, $236 billion surplus in 2000. Better by $526 billion.
· George W. Bush (R): $236 billion surplus on taking office, $413 billion deficit by the end of his first term, worse by $648 billion. The deficit at the end of 2007 was $163 billion. Overall, worse by $399 billion.
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