Hillary’s Math Problem

[rosetta627]

Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose.
Mar 4, 2008 | Updated: 11:23 a.m. ET Mar 4, 2008

BETWEEN THE LINES
Jonathan Alter

"Clinton aides say this will be the beginning of her comeback against Barack Obama. There's only one problem with this analysis: they can't count.
...
So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. Hillary would then have to convince the uncommitted superdelegates to reverse the will of the people. Even coming off a big Hillary winning streak, few if any superdelegates will be inclined to do so. For politicians to upend what the voters have decided might be a tad, well, suicidal."

[MADem]

1. ALTER!!!!!!!! He's gotta say something--he was carping at her to leave the race, before she won

TX, OH, and RI!!!!!!

What a lameass fuck that guy is--he looks like a Conehead!!!!

Hey, Jonathan--Obama has a MATH PROBLEM too!!!!!

And ROSETTA...you have a problem as well--you need to provide a link to your article! Thanks in advance!

[Berry Cool]

4. He "looks like a Conehead"?

Is that a reference to the shape of his skull, or the fact that his cancer treatments have left him with little in the way of hair growth?

[MADem]

12. The shape of his skull! He looks like a conehead, and he acts like one, too.

And sometimes, male pattern baldness at age fifty and up is what it is.

I'm not gonna back off the guy because he had cancer, SORRY. He's a leader of the "Fuck the Democratic Process" movement, and for that, he deserves all the vituperative scorn that can be heaped upon him. I find all this "Stop and give Obama a crown he has NOT earned" squawking the OPPOSITE of Democracy. And I certainly don't give one shit if it comes from a guy who has had stem cell therapy and enjoys a full remission from cancer, or someone who hasn't had that experience.

McCain had cancer too--should we not say anything mean about "Old Popeye" for that reason....hmmmmmmmmm? How about Tony "Mendacity is his middle name" Snow? Should we kiss him on both cheeks because...oooooh, he had CANCER?

What an asinine argument. I don't wish cancer on anyone, but I'm not going to prance around excusing their cheerleading of the abrogation of democracy simply because they had it.

Arlen Specter had chemo cancer treatments, too...FWIW. His hair grew back. Lance Armstrong, Tony Snow, same deal--and Tony isn't "recovering" like Jonathan did.

Sometimes, male pattern baldness coincides with chemo. Other times, as Arlen and Terminal Tony will tell you, it doesn't.

Screw Jonathan Alter. He wants HIS choice for the Democratic nominee to prevail (for reasons we can only speculate about), and he doesn't want to count all votes. Fuck PA, Fuck WY, fuck everyone else--anoint the guy who is BARELY ahead. Because the Conehead says so!

He's the OPPOSITE of a Democrat. And he's an idiot, as well as a pisspoor prognosticator.

But hey, cheer him on if it makes you feel good!

[Berry Cool]

16. I did not ask you to back off him because he had cancer. SORRY.

I asked you to back off his LOOKS because he had cancer, and his looks might--MIGHT--have something to do with that.

I fail to see him as a leader of the "Fuck the Democratic Process" movement. But if you do, fine. Just lay off his looks. They have nothing to do with it.

[MADem]

18. He's been in remission for what, four years? How long does it take for hair to grow back?

Come on--Arlen Specter has HIS curls back. And his foray into the cancer world is more recent.

And if I want to rag on his looks, I will. The guy is an asshole and he deserves to be MOCKED.

There's no shortage of "appearance bashing" here on DU when it comes to Clinton, so why should I tread lightly on Obama surrogates, whatever their motives?

You're not the arbiter of what can be said here, and I refuse to accept your attempt at censorship disguised as scolding. If you don't like my tone, use that IGNORE button. I won't mind at all.

[Sonnenschein]

19. What cancer? Did he have cancer?

[rosetta627]

5. IndyOp added the link.

Sorry about that oversight on my part.

[IndyOp]

2. Link to the article here...

http://www.newsweek.com/id/119010

[rosetta627]

3. Thanks for adding the link IndyOp

Obliged.

[IndyOp]

6. The interesting bit is that even with Alter's extremely pro-Clinton projections

Obama only needs 200 / 500 of the superdelegates to win.

If more reasonable results are projected for Obama, then Obama needs only about 50 of the 500 superdelegates.

That's pretty good math.

:hi:

[The_Casual_Observer]

7. He's pissed that Hillary is still in there, after he did everything he could

in his power to throw her under the bus!

[rosetta627]

8. I think lots of reasonable people are pissed that Hillary's still there

She is:
The Thing That Wouldn't Leave

[The_Casual_Observer]

9. And apparently many reasonable voters in Ohio & Texas don't happen to

agree. Alter & cable news is all about advocacy of personal opinions stated as "the will of the people".

[rosetta627]

10. And she has to get 70% in every primary from her on

Which ain't gonna happen. So I think the will of the people is clear--get lost Hillary.

[The_Casual_Observer]

11. Relax, Obama can't do it either.

I get a kick out of the sudden nerd obsession with these percentages & figures about what Clinton needs to do. Your whole puff is an Axlerod deal to change the direction/ create a distraction. It's laughable.

[MercutioATC]

13. Actually, the Texas voters do....Obama's on track to beat Clinton in delegate count

in Texas

[MADem]

15. Probably as many as are pissed that Obama won't step aside, I'd guess. NT

[MADem]

14. Most people don't realize how instrumental he was in shopping the whole

"The Clintons" themes.

He was a big part of it. Also, he is a great pal of Don Imus, who supports McCain for the Presidency, makes it a point to call Senator Clinton "Satan" and is (cough) "much beloved" around these parts...nu?

He works for the same outfit that hired Karl Rove.

Just sayin'.....!

Of course, he APPEARS to be carrying bucketsful of "Obama Water" lately; thus, he MUST be some sort of.... HERO! And he must really, really, REALLY...I mean, REALLY want "Obama!!" to be President!!

And not McCain...ya know?

Keep a close eye on your belongings, folks, there are pickpockets on the train!

[susankh4]

17. Obama's Ohio Problem

http://www.taylormarsh.com/archives_view.php?id=27159

Math or no math. Ms. Marsh is correct. The McCain dems will be out in Ohio come November if Obama is the nominee.

[2_CentsWorth]

20. There is more to the Math on the Democratic Side...

some important "math" has been overlooked --

The arithmetic must include an essential part of the equation:
Neither Obama nor Clinton can secure through the primaries and caucuses the 2,025 delegates necessary to win at the Denver convention without the votes of the superdelegates.


Add up all the states he has won in his drive to become the nominee, including all of those small and deeply "red" Republican states and --
so far Obama has won in places representing 193 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
so far Clinton's has won in places representing 263 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.


So how have the candidates fared in states that are crucial building blocks of a Democratic general election strategy?
Obama = 51 electoral votes:
from his home state of Illinois, plus Wisconsin, Washington and Minnesota.
Clinton = 118 electoral votes:
from her home state of New York, as well as California, New Jersey and Michigan.


The problem Obama faced in Ohio was --
Obama won only five of the state's 88 counties, an inauspicious foundation for a general election campaign.
Clinton won among Catholic voters, 63 percent-36 percent, according to exit polls. And Clinton beat him among voters in every income category and bested him by 14 points among those making less than $50,000 annually.


Obama, the leading candidate, still hasn't shown he has appeal in a large battleground state that will be pivotal in the fall. In this sense, Pennsylvania is where Obama's back is up against the wall.


goto--->
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/03/tough_math_on_the_democratic_s.html

[2_CentsWorth]

21. Ooops! Sorry! dbl post