Projection: Clinton Wins the Popular Vote!

[susankh4]

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/3/28/projection-clinton-wins-popular-vote-obama-wins-delegate-count.html

"The Obama campaign has argued on occasion that its primary or caucus victories in Republican states means that Obama has a better chance to carry them in the general election than Clinton. As the Clinton people point out, that's ridiculous in some cases: No one thinks Obama's victories in lightly attended caucuses in Idaho or Wyoming mean that he can win them in November. Even in states like Minnesota and Colorado, Obama's caucus wins are less persuasive evidence than current polls that he can do better there than Clinton in November. Nor are Clinton's primary victories in states like Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Ohio very strong evidence for the proposition that she'd be stronger than Obama. General election polls are better evidence; they buttress Clinton's case in New Jersey and Ohio, and refute it for Nevada, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. Interestingly, Clinton won primaries in only five states which went heavily for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004—Arizona, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas."

[BearSquirrel2]

1. Hillary gets em out to vote ...

Conservatives that is. Right now she's getting poll dittoheads voting in the Democratic primary. In the general election, she'll get fundamentalists out to vote against her despite their apathy for John McCain.

[UALRBSofL]

5. Interesting statement but full of non-logic

Especially seeing Obama winning the Republican vote in most states. And, come GE these same Republicans will be loyal to party faithful. Unless you have statistics showing Obama republicans will cross-over in the GE whereas Hillary republicans will vote party line your post is irrelevant.

[BearSquirrel2]

15. Those people who voted for Romney and Huckabee ...

Those folks who voted for Romney and Huckabee, they're unlikely to vote for McCain. They know darn well the man is a flip-flopper and not "one of them". If just 10% of those folks decide not to vote, that's it for John McCain, the Democratic candidate will win. Take those same people and put Hillary Clinton on the ticket ... well they have so much old hostility for the Clintons they will show up just to vote against her. That and Hillary has a very polarizing effect even on political moderates.

It's the McCain voters who are crossing lines to vote for Hillary.

[kmsarvis]

18. GOOD POINT BEARSQUIRREL2!!!!!

[MADem]

2. Hillary gets them out to vote....the reliable older voters, especially. NT

[Qanisqineq]

3. As much as I would love to see it

Just because Obama won these really red states in the primaries does not mean they will turn blue in the GE. The voter turnout for North Dakota democrats was huge compared to the republicans. But I have little doubt that it will go red for the GE in November.

[JTFrog]

4. Golly, What did Bill say about Texas?

Noted from the above "projection":

It should be noted that the winner-take-all score would have been reversed if Clinton had lost Texas, which she carried by the narrow margin of 51 percent to 47 percent and which has 193 delegates.


Who won Texas again?

[UALRBSofL]

6. Considering Hillary won the popular vote

This is a better indicator of whom will carry the state in the GE as compared to a caucus. So your post is flawed.

[JTFrog]

7. Considering who will actually win the delegates, my post is definitely not flawed. n/t

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

10. as is yours. head-to-heads with mcCain are my preferred indicator

[Liberal Gramma]

14. Unlikely in the extreme that Texas will go blue

regardless of which candidate we run.

[Apollo11]

8. To say that Obama won Texas is like saying Bush won the 2000 election.

The fact is that more Texans voted for Hillary than for Obama.

As a democrat, I would have to conclude that Hillary won Texas.

[JTFrog]

9. You obviously don't understand the Texas process then.

No matter how many republicans voted for our candidates, the fact remains that Texas IS Obama country.

If I recall Texas has a multi-step process that accounts for things like that.

Hillary left a nasty taste in everyone's mouth in Texas. I've read accounts of her own precinct captains walking out in disgust saying they couldn't in good faith support her any longer.

As a democrat, I'd have to conclude that the State sanctioned results will show that Obama won Texas handily.

[Apollo11]

11. If the Texas process is so great, why are they the only state to use it?

Are you saying that all the States that hold regular one-person-one-vote primaries are less democratic than Texas? :eyes:

I would put the suggestion to you that the Texas system, rather than being supercool and totally smart, is in fact fundamentally flawed and undemocratic - because it enables the candidate who lost the primary to claw-back delegates through the caucuses.

But if I am wrong and the Texas system is so frikkin' fantastic - maybe ALL the States should choose their delegates the same way?

[JTFrog]

12. Why would you put it to me? I'm not a Texan. That's for them to decide.

It is what it is.

I think the entire process of a 600 day campaign with votes spread out over six months is the most ridiculous primary this country has had to endure to date. And now that I'm more involved in my own state, I'll be bringing that up time and time again.

In the meantime. It is what it is.

[IowaGirl]

16. Some girl on an ABC blog was claiming that the Obama workers in Texas were

doing some weird things like calling Hillary supporters and telling them precincts had closed early, etc. I'm curious whether anyone else had heard anything like that?

[BlueIdaho]

13. Yup that's projection all right...

Please look the term up in the nearest psychology textbook.

[kmsarvis]

17. CLINTON MAY WIN THE POPULAR VOTE IN TEXAS BUT.......

SHE WILL MOST LIKELY LOSE THE POPULAR VOTE NATIONALY, EVEN IF FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN ARE COUNTED AS IS.

Popular Vote (w/FL & MI)** 13,931,651 47.6% 13,837,470 47.2% Obama +94,181 +0.4%

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 14,265,735 47.6% 14,061,332 47.0% Obama +204,403 +0.6%

WITH MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA COUNTED AS IS OBAMA STILL LEADS IN THE POPULAR VOTE BY 204,403. WHAT EVER SHE GAINS IN PA SHE IS LIKELY TO LOSE IN NC.
ALTHOUGH CLINTON IS LIKELY TO WIN KENTUCKY ,WEST VIRGINIA AND PUERTO RICO, OBAMA IS STILL AHEAD IN THE INDIANA POLLS AND WILL PROBABLY WIN OREGON BY A SIGNIFICANT MARGIN.

[psychmommy]

19. boy, that stuff you guys are smoking is incredible.

pass some of that over here!

[bvar22]

20. Popular Vote?

Maybe. But Hillary LOST the election.

What is the prize for 2nd Place?
Is there a trophy or something?

[susankh4]

22. What election?

I thought we were still nominating.

The election will have to be won against Mr. McCain, last I looked. And the real question is... how will the electoral college shake out for Dems in the fall.

[jlacivita]

21. The idea that winning a state by a few percentage points means your opponent can't win it

in the general is just silly.

We're talking about a fraction of the total voter population slightly favoring either hillary or obama.

There's no doubt that whoever the nominee is, democrats will win CA and NY, for example, so this whole line of thinking is flawed.