The GOP, a casualty of war

[babylonsister]

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-brooks10apr10,0,3686496.column

The GOP, a casualty of war
Don't let the Obama-Clinton battle fool you: It's the Republicans who are hurting the most this election year.
Rosa Brooks
April 10, 2008

snip//

As I said, it's a downer.

Especially for the GOP.

Over time, as more and more Americans have become convinced that going to war in Iraq was the wrong decision, President Bush's approval ratings have plummeted -- and Bush appears to be taking the Republican Party down with him.

According to a March 20 Pew Research Center study, Republican Party identification is at its lowest point in the center's 16 years of polling: Only 27% of registered voters will now fess up to being Republicans, a 6-percentage-point drop since 2004. And the decline is particularly notable in key swing states.

It's not just the fence-sitters who are shifting; core GOP constituencies are fleeing too. In a warning sign of what the future may hold for the GOP, Republican Party identification among younger white evangelicals -- 55% in 2001 -- had plummeted to 40% by September 2007.

The same trend has been true among military personnel, for decades a solidly Republican constituency. In 2004, 60% of active-duty military personnel who responded to a survey sent to Military Times subscribers identified themselves as Republicans. By 2007, that had dropped below 50%. (Military personnel tend to take screw-ups in Iraq pretty personally.)

If political contributions are any guide, 2008 has the potential to be a good year for the Democratic Party with military voters; data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics found that the two candidates pulling in the most money from military donors in January and February were Ron Paul, the libertarian GOP candidate who favored withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq, and Obama, who garnered nearly 30% more in military donations than presumptive GOP nominee John McCain.

A lot could happen between now and November, but at the moment, the Democrats appear poised to retake the White House and consolidate control over both houses of Congress. The economy's tailspin may also lead voters to punish the GOP -- but for most of the last seven years, the primary driver of Democratic good fortune has been the Iraq war.

Heck of a job, Bushie.