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By Michael Smerconish (a Republican talk show host who appears on MSNBC)
"... suburban Republicans are wondering what enabled the Democratic Party to take the lead in registration in both Bucks and Montgomery Counties, and to possess a majority when combined with independents in Chester and Delaware Counties. It's not that the party isn't conservative enough to win the suburbs; it is that the party is too conservative and has lost touch with a suburban constituency.
In Washington, the GOP has been on the wrong side of many hot-button issues. As these issues have unfolded - the war in Iraq, Terri Schiavo, global warming, stem-cell research, and the ever-present issue of reproductive choice - the Democratic Party has made strides in the suburbs. Instead of listening to its more-moderate voices, the GOP has instead concentrated on stoking its hard-core base - a minority of Americans - by taking time out of the legislative schedule to posture on issues such as same-sex relationships.
... And the situation could grow worse for the GOP. Take the case of U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, who barely survived a primary challenge on the right from Pat Toomey in 2004. Specter has already announced his intention to seek an unprecedented sixth term in 2010. If he needs to fend off another primary challenge in that cycle, he will have to do it with far fewer moderate Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs, a key constituency for him in years past. Many of those who enabled him to defeat Toomey are now Democrats. They were his margin of victory. And these changes could make it difficult for the next generation of moderates to emerge. As Specter's son and adviser, Shanin, told me: "The national Republicans have spent too much time pumping the base, while the Democrats talk to the country. People notice. And with 81 percent of the nation saying we're on the wrong track, it'd be hard to find a county in Pennsylvania where people are happy with the national Republican Party."
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