For Barack Obama, It's Looking-Ahead Time

[babylonsister]

For Barack Obama, It's Looking-Ahead Time
Submitted by pmcarpenter on Tue, 04/22/2008 - 5:34am. P.M. Carpenter

THE FIFTH COLUMNIST by P.M. Carpenter


Oh boy, the big day. However I must admit it's a bit anticlimactic, for never, to my knowledge, has there loomed such a momentous primary election that meant so little.

Barring a Pennsylvania upset, tomorrow's Democratic "contest" will look much the same as yesterday's. Nothing, really, will have changed. Barack Obama will still be securely ahead; Hillary Clinton will still be hopelessly behind; and the media will still crank out scenarios in which all this could -- but won't -- change.

Today is only a dramatic exercise in satisfying what has come down to some rather idle curiosity. Will Hillary win by 12 or 15 points? Or perhaps only by six or eight? Or even less? We'll see. But we already know that no matter what her margin of victory -- whether it's 15 points or merely one vote -- Hillary won't go away. She's like a Volkswagen or Timex: She just keeps on running, no matter what.

Of course one potential joker in today's deck is the swollen number of new Democratic voters in Pennsylvania, which could yet provide a basis for the unexpected. It all depends on how close Obama actually was, going into today's primary -- something on which the various polls have not been especially helpful.

For the Clinton camp the numbers must be daunting. Reports the Politico: "Since January about 217,000 new voters have registered for the April 22 primary, the vast majority of whom signed up as Democrats.... That statewide Democratic surge has been accompanied by a flood of party-switching.... A poll of those switchers and new registrants released ... last week found that Obama was the preferred candidate for 62 percent of them. Depending on turnout ... those newcomers could help Obama cut a Clinton victory margin by 2 to 3 percentage points."

Unless Obama and Clinton were, in fact, already tied among preexisting registered Democrats. And then there's the matter of all those young voters -- Obama voters, mostly -- with cell phones, which don't ring from pollsters.

more...

http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/carpenter/051

[IndyOp]

1. Ahead: Indiana

Tomorrow
Monday, April 21, 2008 at 12:27 PM

After tomorrow, all eyes will turn to Indiana.

The primary in Pennsylvania is coming up on Tuesday, and right now people from across the country are working hard to help Barack finish strong. But you and I can make a difference for our campaign right here in the Hoosier State.

Indiana's primary is only two weeks away, and supporters like you are spending Pennsylvania Primary Day organizing and building our movement here.

<snip>

After more than 40 contests, we have won more delegates, more votes, and twice as many states as Senator Clinton.

But with only 9 contests remaining after Tuesday, Indiana could be decisive in this race. It's crucial that we act quickly to reach as many potential Obama supporters as possible.

Stand with hundreds of thousands of Pennsylvanians voting for change -- by spending Pennsylvania Primary Day working to grow our organization in Indiana.

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/inhome

[babylonsister]

2. Are people in Indy enthused? Any feelings about that yet? nt

[IndyOp]

3. The last poll I saw was an LA Times poll - put Obama ahead by 5% in Indiana

I live in Bloomington and I know it will go really big for Obama - our City and County Council are lopsidedly Democratic (14 D's and 2 R's) and virtually all have come out for Obama. The ones who haven't are keeping quiet right now. IU faculty will go Obama as will the students.

My neighborhood has 5 Obama signs and 1 Hillary sign. Tonight is the big kick-off canvassing event in Indiana statewide and it will be much more intense this weekend and next, so I expect to see lots more Obama signs soon. I can't say much about the rest of the state, though I suspect that many rural areas will go for Clinton and urban will go for Obama.

There was HUGE activity at Obama headquarters a few weeks ago in the weeks leading up to the voter registration deadline (April 8). I registered around 320 people at the local library over a 3-4 week period and then I spent 30 hours last week helping to enter data from all of those registrations. There are 6,000 new registered voters in Monroe County -- and I've heard at least 100,000 new registrants statewide.

Obama came for Little 500


He visited Nick's English Hut - the woman on the video at 1:42 is Pam - she's performed miracle daily on behalf of the campaign...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TOo40dnP2dM&feature=related

Clinton is coming Friday and will be speaking at Assembly Hall - :( It will be interesting to see how many people show up. At the moment the Indiana Daily Student website has a poll up - Are you going to hear Sen. Hillary Clinton speak Friday at Assembly Hall? Out of 229 votes, 71% say they won't be attending.

I think Senator Obama had better be back here over the weekend or very early next week. Next week is final exam week and students who are registered in Monroe County MUST vote early before they leave for home and they will each leave as soon as their last final is over.

So... how is Indiana? Excited, yes. I am anxious.