How will Barack Obama get to 270?

[unc70]

This article at salon.com is by Paul Maslin, pollster for Howard Dean and for Bill Richardson. It provides a sobering look at the 17 states he sees as even possibly in play this cycle:


Critics scoff and call it an antiquated and unfair system (it is). Many Democrats -- notably, this year, Obama backers -- would like their party to stop thinking in terms of three yards and a cloud of purple-state dust and instead embrace the beauty of a 50-state strategy. Somehow, they say, 2008 can and must be different.

OK, I'm listening. Different how? In that the Democrats win?

Certain cold realities haven't changed. A candidate must still reach 270 electoral votes to gain the White House. Unless there is a popular-vote landslide in November, the presidential election is still best seen as a collection of 50 statewide contests. Should this fall's election be as close as the last two in 2000 and 2004, no more than one-third of those 50 states will be in serious contention. In fact, only about half of that number will ultimately decide the outcome, since the vast majority of the other "close" states actually lean pretty strongly to one side or the other and are unlikely to shift their preference. Once again we're all going to be spending a lot of the next six months, at least psychically, in the Rust Belt.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/05/16/270/

[trotsky]

1. I find this article confusing.

Does that author really believe that Michigan, Minnesota, and New Jersey are in play? I mean, seriously? He doesn't have a good picture of Minnesota, that's for sure. Republicans have taken a beating here as of late, being squashed into minority status in both state houses, as well as losing special elections, and the two Repukes he names both need asterisks. Normie only won because the Pukes exploited Wellstone's memorial service, and Pawlenty squeaked by in 2002 with a plurality (running against two Democrats who split the vote) and again in 2006 (getting to run against two Dems, but also the official Dem candidate being sort of abrasive and having a negative image to overcome).

[unc70]

5. He put MN and NJ as strongly favoring Obama. This is all states in play

He was looking a all states that people on either side think might be in play. He puts my state, NC, in the strongly favoring McCain group; I suspect that is an understatement and worry that we could lose the governorship here.

AA registration is way up and could help Obama a little (1%); it will also motivate some of the anti-Obama voters. People moving into NC don't help Dems as much as you might think; too many of them fit the Repub voting patterns -- mostly white families moving away from Northern urban areas.

BTW how do you think Franken is doing against Coleman?

[Exilednight]

2. If Obama's team is smart, and we know they are, then this is what they should do ........

Obama is tied with McCain Texas, now even with a lot of campaigning Obama will still probably lose Texas, but here's the thing; Obama goes on the attack in Texas and puts the pressure on McCain. McCain doesn't want to be the first rethug to lose Texas since Carter won it in 1976.

McCain doesn't have the resources, such as money or surrogates, to keep up with Obama. Obama keeps him on the ropes in Texas and frees up the rest of his campaign to work the states in play, and if he actually does win Texas - then bonus for him.

[Hestia]

3. I personally believe that Texas is no problem, especially after

voting in 2004 - I stood in line for 2 1/2 hours in the presidential election and almost to a T, everyone was for Kerry/Edwards. It was the machines that gave the vote to this administration - electronic with no paper verification. Texan's are more Democratic than you think.

[Exilednight]

4. Depending on the poll, Obama is dead even or within the margin of error. It's a good fight and ....

I honestly believe it is on the verge of flipping. It might take a couple elections, but I think it can be done. Texas is a funny state. Houston, El Paso, San Antonio, and few other spots are Democrat, but the majority of rural Texas is rethug.

[Doctor_J]

6. So why will this year be different?

You think this year's vote will be on the up-and-up?

:shrug:

[hokies4ever]

7. The old 'bankrupt the Soviet Union' strategy

This is what Chuck Todd called Obama's PA strategy, spending so much money in the state for the primary. I like it. Kind of like what Obama did to Hillary. Poured so much money into it that she bankrupted herself and now can barely afford to advertise in Oregon.