Note to Sen. Obama: Wake up and smell the change in Florida

[flvegan]

Memo to: Sen. Barack Obama

Re: Blowing off 27 electoral votes

Thanks for coming by next week for a three-day campaign swing, Senator.

There has been lots of chatter about you ceding Florida to Sen. John McCain, given the way you've ignored the state for eight months and dismissed the 1.75-million Democrats who voted in our disputed Democratic primary. We're trying not to take it personally when you keep talking about the old electoral map — i.e., Pennsylvania, Ohio and US! — being so 2000/2004.

But here's something you and your advisers might be missing: Florida is turning bluer by the day.

• In the 37 Florida counties with at least 50,000 voters — more than 90 percent of the electorate — Democrats have gained ground among registered voters in 30, while Republicans lost ground in 26. For the first time in many cycles, voters are registering as Democrats at a faster rate than they are registering as independents.

Republicans are gaining mainly in North Florida counties that have been voting Republican for years anyway, while Democrats are gaining in battleground areas.

• A few weeks ago, Democrats overtook Republicans in voter registration among Hispanics, a crucial voter group that could account for 15 percent of the Florida vote in November. Senator, a Democrat now represents Little Havana in the state House, something nobody would have imagined a few years ago.

• Look at the 22 counties where Al Gore received 45 percent to 55 percent of the vote in 2000. Since that virtually tied election, the Democrats' net registration advantage has grown by more than 100,000.

In a state that decided the 2000 election by 537 votes, you bet it matters that today Democrats have more registered voters in a bellwether like Pinellas County, where Republicans in 2000 had a nearly 28,000-voter advantage. Or that in the mega battleground of Miami-Dade County, Democrats have had a net registration gain of nearly 59,000 since 2000.

• Out of Florida's 120 state House districts, 77 have become more Democratic in registration, which helps explain why nine House seats have shifted from Republican to Democrat since 2006, the best performance Democrats have had in decades. Likewise, Democrats picked off three congressional seats in 2006, and Democrat Alex Sink easily won a hard-fought statewide campaign for chief financial officer.

<snip>

The Florida GOP retains a big advantage in the mechanics of winning elections. Crist and his team will leave no stone unturned mobilizing McCain voters.

Yup, you've got a challenge in Florida and ground to make up, Sen. Obama. But don't buy the widespread Beltway view that we're probably out of reach. Democrats haven't been better positioned to pick off Florida since 2000, maybe even since 1976.

Link to full article:

http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/state/article510039.ece

[DAGDA56]

1. Apparently the Obama Team has reached some of the same conclusions...

...he will be in the State; Tampa, Orlando and Miami next week. I agree, drawing strictly from limited anecdotal evidence in the Orlando area, this is not a "safe state" for the GOP this year

[Mojorabbit]

2. Where in Orlando

and when? Do you know? I'd love to see him.

[stillcool]

3. I think Florida

and Michigan should have their own Democratic Party. Then they can make and break their own damn rules, and use their threats against each other. Who do these people think they are...the Mafia?

[HockeyMom]

4. I am in red Collier County

I have seen nothing but Obama stickers; no Hillary nor McCain stickers.

Maybe there is hope?

[ellenfl]

5. according to the state records, there were already more

registered dems than repugs. however, i think that florida, in the election of jebbie, was the proving ground for the voter suppression of 2000 and 2004. it was heartening to see chain gang charlie giving ex-cons their vote back.

remember, we WERE blue in 2000 . . . the supremes just weren't having any of it, especially since florida's supreme court was blue.

ellen fl

[depakid]

6. "a big advantage in the mechanics"

Yep- a system gone from bad to worse with widespread electronic voting fraud.

[RDANGELO]

7. Something no one is talking about.

McCain pushed privatizing social security. This could be the issue that wins Florida for Obama with it's big senior population.

[Doctor_J]

8. Oh fer chrissakes

it's MAY. He hasn't written anything off yet. The primary there is a non-issue, and he's working in KY and DC.

Keep your Bermuda shorts on. He will make a strong showing in FL and might turn it blue.

Edit: If the election system in FL were fair, Obama would take 53-55% against McSame.

[babylonsister]

10. "Keep your Bermuda shorts on."

:rofl:

And I agree; Obama will be there, and he will be a force to behold.

[Prophet 451]

9. Not to disagree but...

...Florida didn't decide the 2000 election, the Supreme Court did.

(Yes, I know we're supposed to "get over it" but I'm still pissed)