Year of the Independent Voter

[babylonsister]

Year of the Independent Voter
By Jeremy P. Jacobs 05/17/2008


When Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) all but wrapped up the Democratic nomination last week, the focus of both his and Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) presidential campaigns shifted to general election strategies. Unsurprisingly, both are targeting independent voters, which these candidates appealed to this primary season -- McCain, with his almost trademarked maverick persona, and Obama, with his post-partisan message of unity and hope.

Independent voters could be pivotal in November. While membership in traditional parties has weakened in recent decades, independent voters increased -- the number of people registering as "unaffiliated" or "other" since 1987 jumped from 16 percent to 24 percent. For example, in Florida, an important battleground state, the number of "other" voters has more than quadrupled, surpassing 20 percent of the electorate. In another key state, California, since 1988 the percentage of voters "declin to state" a party preference rose nearly 8 percentage points -- to almost 18 percent.

The looming battle between McCain and Obama for independent voters is evident in polling. On Wednesday, Gallup released a poll that showed McCain and Obama share nearly equal support among independents -- 44 percent for Obama and 42 percent for McCain. So this election would ultimately be about who attracts the most independent voters.

Polling also reveals that McCain and Obama both satisfy what independents are looking for in a candidate - personal values, military judgment, willingness to work with the opposing party and managerial competence. So while the national environment may favor Democrats, this suggests that McCain still has a fighting chance to win over these important voters.

"The vital political center is back this year after it was on sabbatical in 2004,” said John Zogby, the eponymous pollster. "The middle, mostly represented by independents, is up for grabs. And it will be the swing vote in the election."

But while the "middle" is likely to be contested, independent voters are often improperly defined. A closer look at this group reveals it is not nearly as monolithic as usually portrayed. Blocks of independent voters vary across the country and, demographically, the differences can be substantial. For example, independent voters in Colorado, often new to the state, are largely young and well-educated. They have different values than independents in, say, Pennsylvania, who are likely to be older, less educated and more rooted in their community. Consequently, independents in certain areas will be more receptive to Obama's change message while those in other regions will be more likely to support McCain's established maverick image -- a result that could split the independent vote in November.

more...

http://washingtonindependent.com/view/year-of-the

[Vincardog]

1. I do not trust anyone saying the middle path is the correct one. Not when the middle path is to the

Right of Mussolini and Nixon is a moderate in todays climate.

No the winning strategy is to run on a blatantly Populist Progressive platform.

How else are we going to snatch our Democracy from the jaws of FASCISM?

[babylonsister]

3. I have my own problems with that, too. I think independents

want the freedom to choose whomever has the best platform, but how can they see weathervane, warmongering McCain as the right path? Why not register rethug if they want to walk that walk?
And this is coming from a former ind. who didn't want to be forced into party allegiance, or couldn't make up her mind. Once I started really paying attention, that changed pretty fast.

[stillcool]

5. I switched to Independent...

sometime last year. I was so pissed off, and had an "I'll show them" attitude. Those that represent me didn't notice, and nobody else did either. I still got emails from them all the time, and every other Democratic organization under the sun. Then before the Primary I switched back. Another one of my exercises in futility.

[babylonsister]

7. My switch happened when DeLay's seat was up for grabs.

I couldn't not vote for anyone other than the bugman. Little did I know I had a bluedog Dem on my hands.
This year, there's Rick Noriega who just might unseat Cornyn. Halleujah!
And then there's Obama.

Nothing has kicked in yet in TX to my knowledge, but I will try to help both those efforts.

[Warpy]

2. Rubbish, they say that every four frigging years.

It's only been that way because the conservative leadership of our party insisted on playing to the right of center rather than to their own party.

Registered Democrats make up the majority in this country. The push should be to get them all out to vote, not to pretend we won't rock the GOP boat.

[Vincardog]

4. I don't want to rock the GOP boat; I want to sink the damn thing and sharks have the survivors

[hokies4ever]

6. Independents seem to ALWAYS be the most important voter

but not this year. It will be the left and left-leaning voters. Merely because they are energized by both an engaging primary season as well as the faults of the current administration, as well as the huge negativity that goes with the current incumbent.

[Kixel]

8. Every election is about Independents

Anyone who has ever worked campaigns can tell you that! It's about the deficit in your win number-where do you go to make that up? Not to those who are in line with specific parties. New voters and independents.