George W. Bush has managed to cut himself off from the reality of the Middle East, sealed into his self-assured righteousness. However, despite the indifference of the United States to various on-going sets of negotiations, these talks are continuing and moving ahead, with varying degrees of success.
Bush's chilling mistake is to be so clear about who he regards as the enemies of the US, and to make explicit that his administration will not talk to such organisations or countries. He has managed to marginalise the world's sole superpower in much of the Middle East, where it has played a significant part in the past, and should be playing a much more constructive part at present.
The most obvious case was the formation of a new Lebanese government in Doha last week, when the Qataris successfully brought Hezbollah and its allies into an agreement with the March 14 coalition headed by Sa'ad Hariri. This agreement broke the 18-month long deadlock in Lebanese politics, although it did not solve the underlying problem of how Hezbollah should fit into the new Lebanon.
Nonetheless it has created a very popular breathing space in which people can plan again, but it was done without American support. Exactly at the time that the talks were underway in Doha and were critically poised, Bush spoke at the World Economic Forum in Sharm Al Shaikh, and totally distanced himself from what was happening. He said: "We stand with the people of Lebanon. ... opposing Hezbollah terrorists, funded by Iran. ... Hezbollah militias are the enemy of a free Lebanon".
He did not mention the Doha talks at all, yet despite his uncompromising views, Hezbollah is now part of the new government in Lebanon, and the Lebanese are able to find their own way to talk to the Hezbollah leaders and find a negotiated way forward to a more stable future.
Turning to the core issue of Palestine, the Palestine National Authority is crippled by the split between Hamas and Fatah, which makes any peace deal impossible to implement. If Bush genuinely wanted to push his Annapolis peace process forward, he would take an interest in reuniting the two Palestinian sides. Instead he says, "All nations in the region must stand together in confronting Hamas, which is attempting to undermine efforts at peace with acts of terror and violence."
He has forbidden any US official to talk to Hamas, but even Israel has refused to fall into line with Bush's attempt to isolate Hamas and has been conducting a dialogue with Hamas through the Egyptians. These talks seem to be running into trouble but even if they fail, they will have helped to show both sides what the other will need if they are to find peace.
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