On-the-money pollster predicts Obama win

[cal04]

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24328754-12377,00.html

A POLLSTER whose mathematical model has correctly predicted every winner of the White House popular vote since 1988 is banking on a decisive victory for Democrat Barack Obama in November.

Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz said today that according to his "time for change" model, Obama would secure 54.3 per cent of the popular vote against 45.7 per cent for Republican John McCain.

That margin would virtually guarantee a crushing victory for the Democrat in the state-by-state electoral college that actually selects the next president, Mr Abramowitz said.

He said unknown variables, such as the nation's bitter partisan divide and resistance to Senator Obama's African-American race among some white voters, may result in a slightly smaller popular vote margin for the Democratic nominee.

But, "the combination of an unpopular Republican incumbent in the White House, a weak economy and a second-term election make a Democratic victory in November all but certain," he writes in the October issue of the journal PS: Political Science and Politics.

[bleever]

1. He was on Ed Schultz today, and said that the youth vote was

probably greatly under-represented by the current polling, both because of the use of cell phones, and tremendous voter registration success among the Democrats.

[firedupdem]

2. God, I hope this guy is right! n/t

[melody]

4. We must all go out and make him right

There's no other acceptable outcome.

[The River]

8. Exactly Right

on both counts.

I'm to old to move to another country.

[dtotire]

14. I hope so too n/t

[patriotvoice]

3. Abramowitz in April, 2008: "Barack Obama might as well admit that John McCain will beat him..."

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=75f776fe-3f70-4893-9a2e-e5a557d761ee

Please read the article before you flame.

[fasttense]

11. Wow, an article in The New Republic saying Dems are going to win.

Interesting.

"According to every known leading indicator, 2008 should be a very good year for Democratic candidates at all levels. There are many factors that point to an across-the-board Democratic victory in November, including the extraordinary unpopularity of President Bush, the deteriorating condition of the economy, the unpopularity of the war in Iraq, and the fact that Americans prefer the Democratic position to the Republican position on almost every major national issue. However, the most important Democratic advantage, and one that has received relatively little attention in the media, is the fact that for the past six years the Democratic electoral base has been expanding while the Republican electoral base has been shrinking.

Since 2002, according to annual data compiled by the Gallup Poll, the percentage of Americans identifying with or leaning toward the Democratic Party has increased by about seven percentage points while the percentage identifying with or leaning toward the Republican Party has decreased by about six percentage points. Fifty-two percent of Americans now identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party while only 39 percent identify with or lean toward the Republican Party."

[HamdenRice]

12. That's mean! nt

[the other one]

5. That margin is not fraud-proof.

Actually, no margin is fraud proof.

I would expect the reported vote to be something like McLaime 52% to Obama 47%.

[tblue37]

6. Yeah, but has he factored in electronic election fraud and good old-fashined

voter suppression techniques, including the massive purging of voter roles and rejection of newly registered voters that is going on in battleground states right now?

[elocs]

7. I believe that when push comes to shove the American vote will look at McCain

and the last 8 years just like when Neo faced the Agents bullets in The Matrix and just held his hand up and said: "No":
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLufDOPDmvo

Americans will look at McCain and the last 8 years and just say "NO!"

[HughMoran]

9. Never again

After the Zogby debacle in 2004, I'll never EVER believe a pollsters projection.

[Stellabella]

10. Let. Us. Hope.

If not, this country is going to go sailing off a crumbling cliff.

[ejbr]

13. This makes no sense.

How can he be right about every election since 1988 when Bush lost both the 2000 and the 2004 election, but was inaugurated anyway? If he was right about 2000 and 2004, then he would have been wrong about two of the elections since 1988, no?

[northernlights]

15. two opposing predictions...

only one can be close to correct outcome.

Either way, he can claim to have correctly predicted the winner.

[Shine]

16. He's the same guy who said the media is distorting the truth, too.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/no-cliffhanger-more-like-an-obama-landslide/2008/07/27/1217097059908.html
<snip>
Nevertheless Senator McCain has reason to be worried - very worried. Last week three leading political scientists declared the US media's presentation of the election as a toss-up as a "myth".

Alan Abramowitz , a professor of political science at Emory University, Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at Brookings Institution, and Larry Sabato, professor of politics at University of Virginia, accused the media of flogging a dead horse in trying to portray the presidential race as a cliffhanger.