''Why States Seek to Acquire Nuclear Weapons''

[NNN0LHI]

http://pinr.com/report.php?ac=view_report&report_id=75

Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, one of the leading foreign policy interests of powerful states has been to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. Leading powers that have nuclear capability -- or that are allied with nuclear-armed states -- have put pressure on non-nuclear states to prevent them from developing and acquiring nuclear weapons. While no one state has a global nuclear monopoly, nuclear-armed states want to preserve their power over non-nuclear states. The reason that nuclear-armed countries have more power over non-nuclear countries is that there are less risks involved in attacking non-nuclear states versus attacking nuclear-armed states.

When a state acquires nuclear weapons, the cost of invading that state increases, making it more difficult and expensive to gain a military edge over a nuclear-armed state. For example, in the early 1980s Iraq was developing a nuclear reactor for, at least in part, energy purposes; however, the only nuclear-armed state in the region, Israel, feared that Iraq's reactor would be used to develop nuclear weapons. Israel correctly assumed that if Iraq were to acquire nuclear weapons, Israel would lose its nuclear monopoly in the Middle East and thus likely lose foreign policy leverage with other countries in the region. Therefore, since Iraq did not yet have nuclear weapons, in 1981 Israel was able to launch a successful military strike on the Iraqi nuclear reactor without the fear of a powerful retaliation.

Following this strike, according to Iraqi nuclear scientists, Iraq hastened its mission to develop nuclear weapons. The Iraqi state realized the only way to increase their leverage with their rivals -- such as Iran and Israel -- was to acquire such weapons, knowing full well that this would make it much more difficult for rival states to threaten or attack Iraq. This same reason may be why the Ba'ath Party leadership was unwilling to allow U.N. weapons inspectors complete access to every part of Iraq: the ambiguity surrounding its weapons program could have theoretically increased Baghdad's foreign policy negotiating power.

This ambiguity can also be seen in current North Korean foreign policy. Ever since the election of the Bush administration, which publicly considers North Korea a threat that may require "regime change," Pyongyang has sent out a dizzying amount of confusing signals regarding its nuclear program. The purpose of such dubious statements is likely to create the perception that North Korea is possibly a nuclear-armed state. As long as powerful rival states, such as the United States and Japan, are unclear about North Korea's nuclear program, they will have to be more careful before deciding to take military action against the country.

more