The Coming Democratic Wipeout

[TBF]

The most likely explanation for a conservative resurgence at the polls is actually the demoralization of the Democratic "base" over the last two years.

August 9, 2010

IT'S BEEN obvious for more than a year that the Democrats can expect a beating at the polls in the November midterm elections.

For months, most leading polls have showed the Republicans tied with, or leading, the Democrats in voters' preferences for congressional candidates. And even more ominous for Democrats, President Obama is now more unpopular than popular, with an average of 50 percent of people saying they disapprove of his performance, compared to 45 percent who say they approve, according to the compilation figure calculated at Pollster.com.

What's more, the polls have also noted a wide "enthusiasm gap" between people who say they plan to vote Republican and those who say they plan to vote Democratic. This means that conservatives are fired up about the midterm elections, while people who voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and the rest of the Democratic "base" remain demoralized and seemingly indifferent to the outcome in November.

What does this mean for the elections in November?

Washington election forecaster Charlie Cook predicts a "wave" that will sweep out the Democratic majority in the House of Representatives. Although considered less likely, Republicans winning a majority of the Senate is also not out of the question.

If even one of these events takes place this fall, it will mark one of the biggest reversal in mainstream electoral politics in decades. If both houses of Congress flip to the GOP, the Republican Revolution of 1994 would look like incremental change...

Much more at the link - http://socialistworker.org/2010/08/09/coming-democratic-wipeout

[CanonRay]

1. They're not going to gain a single seat in Colorado

I can't speak for anywhere else though.

[DavidDvorkin]

17. That's because we occupy all but the most rightwing seats in Colorado

We have to focus on defending the ones we have.

[jaksavage]

2. I don't believe this

It is ignoring the facts on the ground, with the repukes labeling themselves anything but republican. The tesbaggers bringing crazy images weekly. The idea that voters are going to rush back to the repuke side after the last two years is ridiculous.

I view these reports as diversionary, expressing the story they hope to come true.
I don't particularly care where the info comes from, as I don't trust anyone to have an unbiased view...except Amy Goodman.

[still_one]

3. "Democratic base". What is that? Is it the "liberals", "blue dogs", "moderates"? The Democrats

are made up of a lot of demographics today, and not anyone component can necessarily be viewed as a "base"

the republicans today are pretty much of an exclusive group. You either agree with their platform, or get out.

It will be the independents that determine the election, and those so-called independents are not very pleased with either party

[snagglepuss]

4. Perhaps the Admin wants a repuke majority so Obama will then have an

excuse for failing to implement any real change.

[Walk away]

6. Good attitude! nt

[depakid]

10. That's been posited before and it does make some sense given what we've seen

it would also, IMO increase his chances of reelection markedly.

[Bonhomme Richard]

5. Run on the left and govern from the middle/right. n/t

[Name removed]

9. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TBF]

12. Huh?

I'm not one to vote for repubs so your comments there are out of line - but I would ask you to think about your claims and how they relate to this administration.

Rich get the tax cuts - they are still getting the tax cuts
Medical help goes in the toilet - already has
Education gets privatized - Arne Duncan is doing his best on that
Property goes out of site - we stay in a depression so housing is cheap? Seriously?
And we have crappy Jobs available - What Jobs?

[NorthCarolina]

24. The poster simply stated the standard procedure for DLC New Dems

Run left, govern right.

[TBF]

25. I was referring to message 9,

which is gone now (removed by moderators) so that is why you're confused.

[Donnachaidh]

15. nice Big Tent sentiment

Namecalling and marginalizing is a wonderful repuke tactic. And you just proved the OP's point -- Bravo! :sarcasm:

[groovedaddy]

7. Let's see...do we want more of what bush & co. dished out? I didn't think so. Am I pleased with

Obama & the bluedogs in Congress? On some things, yes. On other issues, decidedly know.
If, as a nation, we're ready to slit our wrists, then, by all means, put the repubs back in power.

[valerief]

8. Citizens United will buy lots of voting workers, too. Money that would have

gone to campaign ads will now go to buy voting workers. Corporations will pour big bucks into the ads.

[Demeter]

11. As Long As the Blue Dog Corporate Democrats Go Down, The Party Will Be Better for It

What cannot continue, will not. Democratic Party cannot continue to ignore its base and have anything like a well of support left.

[TBF]

13. Agree with getting those blue dogs out.

Of course in my area the fools went straight from blue dog to evil conservative. It's miserable living in Texas sometimes.

[NorthCarolina]

14. I thought the DLC plan was - run to the Center-Right to keep the independents, base is unimportant

:shrug:

[The Wizard]

16. The DLC assumes the base has no where to go

That may be right, but they do have a place to stay, and that's home on election day.
The Democrats blew it by dragging out the health care debate for a year. Then they passed a stinker of a bill.
In their efforts to get "campaign contributions" from the insurance lobby they lost the voters' confidence.

[bvar22]

18. Who is surprised?

"When given the choice between a Republican, and a Democrat who acts like a Republican, the voters will choose the Republican every time." ---Harry Truman

QED Massachusetts

[nightrain]

19. sadly, if the Dems lose seats in Nov and 2012, it will be because they

lost sight of Democratic principles and values. They'll earn the loss.

[TBF]

20. That is how I see it as well. nt

[Skittles]

22. they won't learn from it though

they never do

[rppper]

21. You know what....

F@ck 'em....f@ck 'em all...let them take over again...let them run it into the ground...let's really return to the good old days of the early 20th century. Let's bring back the soup lines and 3rd world conditions in this country....let all these ass hat tea party right wing Toby mac f@ckers run the country right into the toilet. Let's have a society where if your not connected you eat spam and live day to day under the strict rules of the rich and powerful 2%....debtors prisons and non existent job and human rights...it's time for the politicly ignorant in this country to get just what they're asking for...let 'em eat cake by god...sister Sarah and her illegitimate cub bearers will save us all...they are fighting for our rights after all?!?! A return to the good old days right??? I'm over trying to educate those who have no will to listen...we need a total break down to snap this country back to reality...and if 8 miserable years under bush couldn't show them certainly this will. I'm glad I'm a middle of the road democrat...I'll have the guns and supplies put away and wait out the anarchy that's coming...

In my 43 years on this blue ball I have never seen things like they are today...I'm sooooo over it all. Sorry for the rant, but really...they put us in this mess...let them figure a way of this. It won't happen, and when they fail...again...let every American that is pissing and moaning about Obama watch this country fall on it's ass for the 2% their party of choice is REALLY representing....it's haves and have nots...and the quicker Joe sixpack realizes he is a have not the better....

[fasttense]

23. Well, after looking over what Nate Silver has to say, I disagree.

There will be no coming Democratic wipe out and the RepubliCON advantage is highly overstated.

Nate is currently predicting that the Democratic Party will lose some seats in the Senate but still KEEP the majority. In the house the same thing is likely to happen. The RepubliCONS will gain some seats but they wont take the majority.

So this coming takeover by the far radical right is pure spin. It ain't going to happen, Remember how everyone kept saying (except for Nate) McCain and Palin were leading, McCain and Palin would win. Well it turned out even before Palin was picked the RepubliCONS knew they would lose the election. They didn't have a prayer.

The RepubliCONS don't have a prayer now of taking the majority in either house. All of this is RepubliCON spin.

Go visit Nate's site: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[yurbud]

26. beating up your base then telling them they have no where else to go is not a recipe for success

[shirlden]

27. This is a setup, folks.

My take is that Gibbs knows more than we do and he figures Dems are going to have some big losses this Nov. So, who to blame??? Well, the leftist, of course. Piss us off, we stay home, lost votes. Our fault. Suck it up, folks.