Southern California is overdue for 'The Big One,' study finds LA Times

[sce56]

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2010/08/southern-california-overdue-for-major-earthquake-study-finds.html

Southern California is overdue for a major earthquake along the San Andreas fault, according to a landmark study released Friday. The long-awaited study came after scientists spent years studying the geology of the Carrizo Plain area of the San Andreas, which is about 100 miles northwest of Los Angeles. It found that earthquakes along the San Andreas fault have occurred far more often than previously believed. "What we know is for the last 700 years, earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault have been much more frequent than everyone thought," said UC Irvine researcher Sinan Akciz said in a statement. "Data presented here contradict previously published reports." Added UCI researcher Lisa Grant Ludwig: "People should not stick their heads in the ground. There are storm clouds gathered on the horizon. Does that mean it's definitely going to rain? No, but when you have that many clouds, you think, 'I'm going to take my umbrella with me today.' That's what this research does: It gives us a chance to prepare."






The last massive earthquake on that part of the fault occurred in 1857. But researchers from UC Irvine and Arizona State University found that earthquakes have occurred as often as every 45 to 144 years. That would make the region overdue for the type of catastrophic quake often referred to as "The Big One." The finding adds weight to the view of many Southern California seismologists that the San Andreas has been in a quiet period and that a major rupture is possible. The research, published Friday in the journal Geology, used charcoal samples to look for earthquake activity going back centuries.

-- Rong-Gong Lin II

Top photo: Evidence of the 1857 Ft. Tejon quake is evident on the side wall of this trench at the Bidart Fan. This area in the Carrizo Plain is one of the easiest places to see movement on the San Andreas Fault. Bottom photo: UC Irvine postdoctoral scholar Sinan Akciz, left, and J. Ramon Arrowsmith, a geologist at Arizona State University, right, are seen in 2009 as they work with Lisa Grant Ludwig on mapping the history of temblors on a portion of the San Andreas Fault. Credit: Ricardo DeAratanha / Los Angeles Times

[lob1]

1. I'd be a lot more impressed if they didn't do a version

of this story every year. When I first moved to California, they ran stories here how we were 50 years overdue for "The Big One". That was 50 years ago. Science is science, but when "The Big One" hits is just guess work.

[sce56]

2. Just think of this every day that passes is a day closer to it, whether it be 5 days or 5 years!

[lob1]

4. I realize that, but they do run this story every year.

I'm sure the Big One will happen someday, but no one has a clue when. They keep implying in these stories that it's going to happen any minute. The stories would be intellectually honest if they said in each article, THIS IS ALL GUESS WORK as to when it will happen. It's one thing to prepare people, it's another to scare them needlessly. I just resent that they keep doing this story just to sell papers. It's just a pet peeve of mine.

[Bluenorthwest]

6. Let me ask you this.

Do you have a box of supplies, some water, a quake plan?

[lob1]

8. Yes I do.

[Bluenorthwest]

9. Cool

I ask because this is a major focus for some people I know, so I get curious.

[lob1]

10. Yeah, you'd be foolish not to be as prepared as you

can. We have quakes every single day, except they're mostly small and we don't even feel them. We had a fair amount of damage from the Northridge quake in '94--broken water heater, water damage, badly damaged chimney, cracks in the walls and the concrete driveway. Even if there is no damage, they can scare the hell out of you. We even have flashlights at designated spots around the house. I even have a small lite on my keychain. I still have a little boy scout in me, even though they threw me out of the boy scouts for climbing a cliff I wasn't supposed to climb when I was 13.

[Scottybeamer70]

7. Heh.....

You know as soon as "teh gay" gets permission to marry, that's when the BIG ONE will hit.........:rofl:

[Dr.Phool]

3. Slow news day.

[county worker]

5. I hear that every year.

We had a small one 2 miles from my house last week.

Our problem is that we aren't sinning enough. Soon as we break enough of god's laws we will have the big one and fall into the sea!