The Wrong Worries By PAUL KRUGMAN

[JAnthony]

"In case you had any doubts, Thursday’s more than 500-point plunge in the Dow Jones industrial average and the drop in interest rates to near-record lows confirmed it: The economy isn’t recovering, and Washington has been worrying about the wrong things.


It’s not just that the threat of a double-dip recession has become very real. It’s now impossible to deny the obvious, which is that we are not now and have never been on the road to recovery."


More at:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/opinion/the-wrong-worries.html?_r=3&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

[bhikkhu]

1. Ah well...easy to say, when you have opted out of responsibility

and instead just apply hindsight to criticize what those bearing responsibility have done. To say we have never been on the road to recovery ignores a great deal of growth, and the huge turnaround in the economy that Obama was able to achieve.

Krugman is getting a little too worn into his groove lately, I think.

[tblue]

4. You don't read Krugman regularly, do you?

He's been on this all along. Predicted a stalled recovery long ago and even why and how it would happen. If you want links to his columns, I'd be happy to share them.

[bhikkhu]

6. Yes, I have read quite a bit of his work

and I have often appreciated his insight. At times, however, and especially in the past few months, he seems more and more like the guy behind you in the stadium, who always knows how to coach better than the coach, how to throw better, catch better, read plays, etc, than anyone on the field. And of course he always knows exactly what play would have won the game, if only...

Krugman was asked at one point whether he could see himself in an administration post (since he obviously knows so much better), but he said no, he was fine as an outside commentator.

But the main thing that gets me in this is that we have had 18 months of positive growth and jobs numbers, and the numbers are still positive, yet Krugman says there never was any recovery - because that's what fits his pinched little narrative, and what sells papers, in this case.

[Uncle Joe]

5. The truth can hurt, but growth without job creation means nothing.

Consider one crucial measure, the ratio of employment to population. In June 2007, around 63 percent of adults were employed. In June 2009, the official end of the recession, that number was down to 59.4. As of June 2011, two years into the alleged recovery, the number was: 58.2.

[bhikkhu]

7. We have had positive job numbers for many months - 18 maybe?

...I haven't looked at it recently but I think its 18 months. Of course, what you are pointing to is that the population is growing faster than the economy, so jobs haven't kept up. I expect that will be a very long-term problem, given worsening climate and resource (energy) issues.

You could also say that we had 8 years under bush with a net zero jobs created, so we would have to grow even faster to make those up - 300,00 new jobs every month if we wanted to level up in 8 years, or 600,000 new jobs created every month if we wanted to get back to a good level in Obama's first term.

Needless to say, no one ever predicted that it would happen quickly - but we have nevertheless had steady growth for many months now, and positive numbers are still positive.

[plumbob]

8. Actually, last October, September, August and July were negative.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf


Those are the official numbers, and you can be sure they've been made as happy as they can be made.

In the last 25 months, 12 are negative jobs and 13 positive.

[enlightenment]

2. What needs to happen - and what won't:

The point is that it’s now time — long past time — to get serious about the real crisis the economy faces. The Fed needs to stop making excuses, while the president needs to come up with real job-creation proposals. And if Republicans block those proposals, he needs to make a Harry Truman-style campaign against the do-nothing G.O.P.

This might or might not work. But we already know what isn’t working: the economic policy of the past two years — and the millions of Americans who should have jobs, but don’t.

Yes, the Fed and the President need to stop making excuses, but they won't because it 'might not work' - and 'might not work' is somehow more frightening than millions of Americans definitely not working.

Our entire political system, left and right, is filled with craven opportunists who have no interest in anything beyond their personal advancement. Frankly, it would probably work better if we chose our politicians the same way we choose juries.

[tblue]

3. Yup. And people attacking Krugman can't argue with facts.

They just hate for anyone to show up the president they still need to trust and believe in. But facts are facts.

[PurityOfEssence]

10. Don't forget the ego factor, either

Far too many people are unable to ever admit a mistake, since it would show them to be less than perfect. Having declared Obama the virtual second coming, they must rail on and on about chess and other hogwash and unrec anyone who whispers anything vaguely resembling the truth.

As for this growth issue, miniscule growth, even if fairly continuous and long-run, can't overcome a huge disaster like the correction of '08, and hiding behind an unspecified statement of "growth" is either a species of ignorance, an indication of gullibility or some version of deception.

I deeply resent the ego-based need of so many of the extreme partisans that keeps us from being able to more effectively influence this corporatist administration. We're being held ransom and staggering toward a real disaster largely because of people's weak and needy egos.

[jtuck004]

9. "To turn this disaster around, a lot of

people are going to have to admit, to themselves at least,
that they’ve been wrong and need to change their priorities, right away".

___________________________



Doomed.