Perry is very good at connecting with his base, and that base will carry him in the Primaries to win the Nomination. Perry will then switch his Campaign to one strictly on the Economy (Leaving the Fundamentalists in the dust). If the economy goes South (And it appears it will) people will be looking for someone who has a solution to the economy, and Perry will appear to have one, Obama by his attempts to work with the GOP will NOT appear to have a plan, and will lose working class voters.
People want to vote for someone who has a plan for the Nation, it may be a bad plan, but a plan. Obama's plan has been to get elected, and that is NOT a plan for the Nation and people will see that, for the GOP will make an effort to clearly show it to be true. All the GOP has to do is compare what Obama appears to have promised in 2008 with what he did and people will accept Obama really has no plan.
I have made the comparison before, I said Clinton was the 1990s version of Grover Cleveland, a "Gold" Democrat, i.e. someone who agreed with the GOP as to Economic Policy and just wanted to get elected to be President.
Stating in 1894, and coming to a head in 1896 the "Silver Democrats" took over the Party. The "Silver Democrats" were Democrats who OPPOSED the economic policies of the GOP and were willing to help the Farmers (More Americans lived in Rural America in 1896 then in Urban America, a situation that did not change till the 1920 census, where for the first time more Americans lived in Cities then on the Farm) and other working class stiffs by inflating the economy.
The US had suffered a huge depression in the 1870s, due to the insistence that the Civil War Debts be paid back so that the Dollar could return to a Value of $20 an ounce of Gold. This caused Massive DEFLATION, prices reached their lowest value in real terms in the 1890s i.e. the 1895 dollar could buy more items then any time before or since. The Problem with Deflation is that anyone who owned a debt (and most people owned at least a Mortgage) the value of that debt stayed the same WHILE any asset their owned went down in value. I.e. a $1000 farm subject to a $1000 mortgage in 1870, was worth way less then $1000 on 1895 but the Mortgage would still be valued at $1000 for it was a FINANCIAL Asset. Worse the crops that brought in enough to pay the Mortgage in 1870, could NOT do so by the 1890s do to the drop in value of the crop, while the Mortgage held its value.
The price of Silver in the late 1800s was declining do to the huge output of Silver out of Nevada. By the 1870s, while the Gold in a Gold Dollar was just pennies (if that much) shy of a Dollar, the Silver in Silver Dollars was only worth 55 Cents. Thus if the Government minted more Silver Dollars, you could have price inflation, the value of housing and crops (And wages) would go up and give the economy a kick start (at the cost that FINANCIAL Assets, like Mortgages, bonds, bank accounts etc would go DOWN as inflation reduced the value of a Dollar to less then $20 an ounce of Gold. FDR ended up doing this in 1934 when he reduced the value of the Dollar to $35 a ounce of Gold, and then Nixon finished the project in 1971 when he released the Value of the Dollar from any reference to Gold).
As a whole minting Silver Dollar would HELP the economy, but Wall Street and the Financial interests OPPOSED it. The GOP opposed it and the "Gold Democrats" like Cleveland opposed it, for the simple reason Wall Street and the Banks opposed it.
Now, by 1900 Gold was found in South Africa and Australia, which lead to inflation do to the increase amount of gold in the World Economy, inflation that had been needed since the 1870s. Thus by 1900 Progressives moved away from the Silver issue for minting Silver coins was no longer needed to inflate the economy. Thus Silver was NOT an issue after 1896, but it was the hot issue of 1896 for Free Minting of Silver Dollars separated the people who supported the Farmers, the Workers and Main street from the Banks and Wall Street.
In 1896 the "Free Silver" Democrats took over the Democratic Party and embraced what the Sitting Democratic President rejected, the Minting of Silver Dollars. This was the take over of Progressives of the party over the ancestors of the Democratic Leadership Committee (DLC). In 1904 and 1928 the Progressives lost control of the party and nominated "me-to" Democrats, but every other Presidential election year a Progressive was nominated (even if that progressive had some "Baggage", for example Wilson's embracing of Segregation in the Federal Government). While not all of them were as Progressives as many people would like, none were the tools of Wall Street (and that was even true of the 1924 Candidate, a Wall Street Lawyer).
I bring this up for 1896 was the year the Democrats STOPPED being a "Me-to" party to the GOP. Cleveland had won in 1884, but lost in 1888 and won again in 1892, as the economy tanked. The problem was Cleveland's solution was the same solutions the GOP wanted, and was Clearly rejected in 1896.
Clinton had the opportunity to break with Wall Street, but he refused just like Cleveland. Obama also had the opportunity to break with Wall Street, but also refused. Both wanted to "Help" Wall Street for that was where the money to run for President came from. In 1896 the Democrats could only raise and spend $650,000 dollars, the GOP raised and spent over 7 Million Dollars. Yes 10 to 1 against the Democrats and this to achieve a popular vote vote of 51.1% against the Democratic candidate's 47.7%.
Campaign Spending including 1896:
http://www.ctn.state.ct.us/civics/campaign_finance/Support%20Materials/campaign_finance_historical_timeline.htmPolitical Parties in the early 1900s:
http://www.learnnc.org/lp/pages/62051896 Election Results:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1896My comment, is the Democratic Party needs to revolt against Obama, the Banks and Wall Street, just like it did against Cleveland in 1896. We are now an Urban Country so no one is going to come out of Nebraska to save the party and to lead its progressive wing, the person who will lead the progressive wing will have to come from the inner city, from the African American community, some African American who leads this party back to the straight and narrow way of being progressive. The people thought Obama was that leader, but it clear he is not (And thus why Obama won the 2008 Nomination and Election).
The reason I said an African American, is that the African American Community is the most loyal group to the Democratic party AND the most loyal to one of their own (Which many African American believe Obama is). Thus to get that 15-20% of the party's base to vote against Obama would require that the opposition be another African American. Such a progressive could upset Obama's plans, but I do NOT see it happening.
Thus, nothing will happen till 2016, after Perry had been President for four years. Then and only then will the progressives in the Democratic Party realize that they MUST take over the party even if that means turning people out of the party (Which is what the progressive did in 1896, the DLC types kept coming back, but since they did WORSE then the progressive when nominated, the Progressives were able to hold on to the party).
I know that the Democratic Party was out of the White House from 1896 till 1932 (Except for the Eight Years of President Wilson, who won do to how the 1912 GOP almost destroyed itself), but during that time period the Party made clear its desire to IMPROVE the fate of Farmers and Working Americans. Thus when the Great Depression hit, the Democratic Party was in a Position to take over, and it did.
I hate to say it, while I will vote for Obama in the General election in 2012, I expect him to lose. He has no plan, and being a "Me-to" Democrat to the GOP, people will prefer a real GOP to a ME-To Democrat. Thus I expect Obama to lose in 2012. Hopefully someone will come out in 2016 to change the Democratic Party, but it will take a Radical to do so, but a Radical that can be elected.
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