Muqtada Wounded by US Bombing(Juan Cole)

[RedEarth]

Informed Comment
Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion

Juan Cole is Professor of History at the University of Michigan


Friday, August 13, 2004
Muqtada Wounded by US Bombing

Muqtada al-Sadr was wounded by US bombardment of Najaf on Friday morning, according to Reuters.
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' But the news could trigger an eruption of violence from Iraq's majority Shi'ite community, where there is growing anger at the U.S. offensive near the country's holiest Shi'ite sites even from those who scorn Sadr's radical views. '


Note that al-Shinabi called him "Sayyid" Muqtada. A Sayyid is a putative descendant of the Prophet Muhammad. Sayyids have a special status in Muslim societies, and even moreso in Shiite Islam. Tribesman see Sayyids as almost magical purveyors of blessings from God.

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If he is trapped in the shrine, and the siege goes on very long, that in itself could inflame Shiite passions against the US. Remember that Waco was in the back of the mind of Timothy McVeigh, who later blew up a Federal building.

My guess is that if Muqtada is killed, and maybe also if he is captured and imprisoned, that will tip the Sadr movement into conducting a long-term low-intensity guerrilla war, similar to what Sunni radicals and Arab nationalists have done in the Sunni heartland for the past 16 months. The south had been much quieter than the Sunni Arab areas, but I suspect that calm can no longer be taken for granted. The question is what happens to the Iraqi government if it faces two major guerrilla insurgencies going on at the same time.

http://www.juancole.com/2004_08_01_juancole_archive.html#109237845611257539