BosGlobe's C. Stein: SS just iceberg tip(if no cuts to def & no tax incr)

[papau]

Lets see, we must cut social benefits because falling taxes - currently only 15% of problem but likely to double or tripple as a problem as "make permanent" and "Commission to simplfy" ideas get passed by GOP - AND OH YA - Expenses - that "Military Industrial complex" welfare, and "Security-Intel/Justice-Homeland" welfare grow ever bigger in the name of Defense and Nation Building - grow bigger. Do you think the GOP will ever admit the Bush tax cuts are unaffordable (lowest level in 45 years)and will vote to rescind them over time?

Charles Stein is a Globe columnist. He can be reached at [e-mail].
http://www.boston.com/business/globe/articles/2005/01/16/social_security_is_just_the_tip_of_a_very_large_iceberg/

ECONOMIC LIFE
Social Security is just the tip of a very large iceberg
By Charles Stein | January 16, 2005

In a memo he wrote recently to build the case for a major overhaul of Social Security, Bush aide Peter Wehner said Americans had to understand that "the current system is heading for an iceberg."

Wehner didn't have that quite right. The United States is on a collision course with an iceberg, but it turns out Social Security is just the tip of the iceberg. The whole iceberg is the much larger fiscal mess confronting the nation in the future. If the Social Security debate sheds some light on that more serious problem, we will all be better off.<snip>

What accounts for such a big hole? Social Security is a contributing factor. Between now and 2030, Social Security payments are expected to grow to 6.3 percent of gross domestic product from 4.3 percent. Comparing a program to the size of the whole economy is a simple way of illustrating its true cost to society.

So Social Security will grow. But the government's two big health programs, Medicare and Medicaid, will grow much faster. Today they represent about 3.8 percent of GDP. By 2030 they will be up to 8.3 percent. By 2080, 16.7 percent. Social Security, by contrast, essentially levels off as a share of the economy after 2030.<snip>