Approval ratings after SOTU - how much bounce?

[Poiuyt]

It's normal for the president to get an increase in his approval ratings after the State of the Union address. What do you predict will be the increase or decrease after bush's talk tonight?

[underpants]

1. about 5 % to 55-58%

and then it will go away. He is running out (I hope) of ways to keep that number inflated. His real number is what he got in 2000 - 47%.

[lancdem]

4. I agree

5 points or so makes sense. And that will dissipate quickly. I wonder if a lot of people will watch, frankly.

[mhr]

2. 10 Points - The Sheeple Will Not Be Denied!

eom

[Dogmudgeon]

3. 5 points

Maybe.

His base is solid, but his opposition is growing in size and strength.

The Democratic horse race will be drawing a lot of attention for the next month or two, no matter what Bush does, or tries to do. He'll probably just coast along until later this year, especially if fuel prices take a sharp rise from the cold weather.

None the less, I think he's got the election in the bag, by hook and by crook...

... Maybe.

--bkl

[lovedems]

5. What is going to be interesting is this is * last controlled message

in front of the nation. From here on out it will be campaigning and I hope debates. When he is forced to answer questions about his policies, how long do you think that bounce will last?

On the campaign trail, unless his handlers are still able to control his surroundings, he is going to be asked some tough questions if he wants to be taken seriously as the incumbent and he isn't going to be able to answer without making a total ass of himself! Every time the guy speaks on his own, he looks like a total fool. Do you think after 3 years he will still be able to ride on the "people misunderestimate me" quote?

[yellowcanine]

6. Depends on the coverage - could be a negative "bounce"

If the media do their job and compare the 2004 SOTU to the 2003 SOTU with all of its phony scaremongering about nonexistent WMDs, I think there is a good possibility that Bush loses some ground. However I am not holding my breath, as I haven't seen any flying pigs today.

[PATRICK]

7. People are bored listening to him

No drama. He not only exhausted that but he is beginning to be a pariah reminding them of everything he once exploited to keep them in fear. He blew his wad with the Mars whopper with supersized lies. Only the media gets dutifully serious about the hot air pronouncements and irrelevant policy ideas. Bush reaches his claws out to Latins. Oh yeah, jumping in the streets they are.

On the cusp of an impeachment? That I would watch. A full retreat from PNAC dreams and handing over the ME to the UN? He can't do anything really productive. He's a lousy, uncharismatic speaker. Only his paid loyalists will yak it up and I bet even they will be itching for the ordeal to be over. What will it be? Karen's feel good smarm or macho bravo? Triumph or the politics fear? His choices are both terrible and inconsistent, hollow and shell like.

It's one of those strange physics phenomena where it appears there is a big explosion or surge but in fact it is an illusion and in fact it is an awesome implosion, worse than what happened to George the First. SOTU is not the strong point. Some wag the dog and dirty trick effort gilded by the press as the glorious misery of the GOP marches on- that will be thud that newsspeak will call a bounce.

But the Dems still have to actually win over the voters, as much as Bush loses them.

[Stuckinthebush]

8. 5 points (+/- 3)

We are a very polarized nation now. There are a few still in the middle who are very malleable. The SOTU makes them feel good inside and they will support the image of a President in power.

It will go away, however.

[felonious thunk]

9. Not much, if any

The State of the Union address is highly overrated as a political device. To the junkies it's big, but not much to the regular electorate. Especially in an election year. The media will be less interested in it this year, and will be focusing on the suddenly 4 person race to go against Bush. I'd say less than 5%, and it will be fleeting and back to current levels after the NH primary next week.