Relaxation break: Get out your primary crystal balls

[John_H]

Who's going to hit the road first? Who's going to win?

JL will surprise the media whores by being one of the first three to go before a primary--a few weeks after DK but right and right around the time BG wraps it up. If WC enters, JL's campaign lasts less than a month from the announcement.

DG will stay around at least until the first primaries because he's raising money, but he'll hang it up after nobody votes for him in New Hampshire.

AS and CMB will hang around longer since they are running shoestring budget campaigns and their goal in running is not only to win, since one reason they're running is to help safeguard the African American community's voice in the party. Convention speech guarantees may have an impact on the timing of their leaving.

JE will stay around to see what happens in the big southern primaries but will leave a few weeks after when it becomes clear he won't be able to win even with a strong showing in the South.

HD and JK will be left in a close battle that I honestly have no idea who'd win.

[FreeperSlayer]

1. Mine says....

General Clark.

[tom_paine]

6. If Clark runs, the nomination is his to lose

After the spineless weakness of most of the Democrats, after the DLC's laughable utterances, Wesley Clark could have the entire Party if he wanted swooning over him in a second.

That's my opinion.

[John_H]

11. I agree

I'd feel much better about it, though, if he'd put out a few policy statements or at least put a few hints in one of his speeches. My guess is he'll run pretty far left on socicial issues, but I'll believe it fully when I see it.

In any event, it's time for him to shit or get off the pot IMHO.

[tedoll78]

2. Wow. This is tougher than I thought.

Lemme think about this for a while.

[goobergunch]

3. CMB drops out in Oct '03 and Clark enters in Sep '03...

Dean wins Iowa in a near 3-way tie between himself, Gephardt, and Kerry. Dean also takes New Hampshire, with Kerry a close second. Lieberman stays alive after placing second to Edwards in South Carolina.

[tedoll78]

4. That sounds realistic.

What I'm wondering about is the X-Factor: At any given MeetUp for Dean, if you ask those who are new to politics to I.D. themselves, 1/2 to 2/3 of them raise their hands. I'm wondering how this will affect the vote totals.

I'm predicting though that Dean will win Texas and the west coast. His organization here in Texas is strong, strong, strong.. and he's already tied for first with Kerry and Lieberman in California. If he wins both IA and NH, the mo' will lift him to the top on the Left coast.

He'll probably split the NorthEast with Kerry. I have no idea how he's going to do in the Great Lake states or the mountain states. His organization via MeetUps might save him or pooter-out. That's why I'm having a tough time predicting..

[goobergunch]

5. IMHO Michigan depends on Gephardt's performance earlier

If Gephardt is doing decently, he's the favorite in Michigan. But if Gephardt is doing poorly, another candidate could swoop in and win.

And of course, always remember that Dean has an edge in caucus states because of MeetUps...

[tedoll78]

7. Yup..

He can organize and instruct his supporters with caucus instructions very easily at this point.

BTW.. I've heard that Colorado is going to the caucus system next Spring. Very interesting.

[Yupster]

8. My chrystal ball

CMB doesn't make it to Iowa.

Gephardt drops out when he desn't win Iowa.

Kerry drops out when he doesn't win New Hampshire.

Graham drops out when he doesn't win S Carolina.

The race becomes similar to the 88 race at that point. Edwards plays the Al Gore character and also doesn't win. Lieberman drops out after he decides he's not the frontrunner because he's never won anywhere.

Dean wins it with Sharpton playing the Jerry Brown character and hanging around right till the convention.

[tedoll78]

9. can you explain 1988's race to me?

All I remember was Saturday Night Live, and that's probably perceived memory since I was 10 back then.

[Yupster]

10. Very big, very able field

Gary Hart early frontrunner knocked out by hanky-panky - then became a wide-open race.

Simon, Biden, Babbitt dropped out quickly. Gephardt won Iowa but didn't win after that. Dukakis won N Hampshire. Gore the conservative young southerner made his stand on super Tuesday, but was outfoxed by Dukakis who cherry-picked Texas and Florida while Gore won other southern states. It quickly became the liberal Yankee Dukakis versus the more conservative southerner Gore, with Jesse Jackson staying in and piling up delegates along the way. Gore made his final stand in New York with Mayor Ed Koch at his side, but he lost and was buried at that point.

This election reminds me of 1988 in some ways because of the very large and very able field. Also, Edwards looks an awful lot like the 1988 Al Gore. Graham looks like the well respected Babbitt who will be so well respected he won't win anywhere. There's Gephardt again fighting to win Iowa. I guess Lieberman would be the Gary Hart character who is the front runner who hasn't won anything. Sharpton can be the Jesse Kackson character.

Only question is whether Dean or Kerry is Dukakis? I think whoever wins N Hampshire from those two will play the Dukakis role, will fight off Edwards and will win it with Sharpton staying in the whole way.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. If Edwards Shows Strength

Trial lawyers will reopen their pockets.

Gore ran out of money and didn't have a post Super Tuesday strategy.


I like Edwards. He needs to hone his message.


The wild card is Clark.

[HFishbine]

12. Mine

Early departures (before S.C.):
---------------

Mosely Braun
Dennis Kucinich

Drop-outs after S.C.:
------------------------
Bob Graham
Joe Lieberman

Drop-outs after Super Tuesday:
--------------------------------
John Edwards

See you at the convention:
--------------------------
John Kerry
Howard Dean
Al Sharpton
Dick Gephardt

[Yupster]

13. I don't think there's room for

both Dean and Kerry.