At the rate Bush is freefalling this year in Zogby's job approval.....

[TruthIsAll]

which is 2.2%/month, he will be at 31% in October.
He has lost 11% in the five months since since December.

Zogby International Poll. May 10-13, 2004. N=985 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.2.

President Bush -- Job Rating:
Excellent/Good Fair/Poor NotSure

5/13/04 42 58 0
4/17/04 47 52 1
4/04/04 47 53 -
3/19/04 46 53 1
1/18/04 49 50 1
12/17/03 53 47 -
12/06/03 49 50 1

[beyurslf]

1. Sounds good to me. Maybe a plummet sometime in June or July though

so we can get under 30 :)

[KharmaTrain]

2. I'll Take 'Em in The Low 40s

Zogby is the only pollster I pay attention to, and the indicators don't look good for this regime.

Remember, "experts" believe that 40% of the voting electorate are taken by both parties (that's why you hear Ed "the Chipmunk" Gillespie say he's playing "between the 40s"), thus at 42% Bunnypants is barely holding his base.

I love how the unpopularity of this pResident is totally ignored...or the overt attempt to make a real human out of a sow's ass...and how it's no longer working.

Let the "pundits" and "talking heads" underestimate how many of us are out here and ready to take this regime out, and then take a good look at them. I suspect some already know this and now realize they put their eggs in the wrong basket. OFW. But instead of confessing their wrongs and whoring, they'll continue to crash and burn to the bitter end.

The operative indicator here is no President has ever been re-elected with an approval rate under 50%. The way things are now, the down indicator stays on strong, and I figure the manchild will bottom out around 40%...and then stay there. Getting back up to 50 is going to be difficult without some major 9/11 type stunt...and even then, I think the public is properly cynical of this regime now that any "bump" even from another catastrophe will be a matter of days or weeks, not months.

Relax, and watch this regime continue to implode. Our work will be begin in cleaning up this mess...and it's gonna be one hell of a job.

[TruthIsAll]

5. Agreed, Bush won't fall to 31%, but 37% is feasible...

TIA

[VolcanoJen]

3. Was the short spike in the 12/17/03 a result of the Saddam "capture"?

Was that truly the only bright light of hope for Bush in, say, six months...?

Rove can't be very happy right now.

[TruthIsAll]

4. The Saddam bump was about 4% in the average of 11 polls I have posted

Here's the link:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1603713

[VolcanoJen]

6. Fascinating stuff

Really, the true freefall begins as the Dem Primaries heated up... and the Saddam spike wasn't nearly as big in reality as I thought it was.

Thanks for this, TruthIsAll!

[qazplm]

7. as I see it

Bush gets a small bump over this quiet period.

Kerry/Bush jostle back and forth til the VP selection.

If done right, the VP selection garners Kerry 3-4 pts in the polls.

DNConvention gives Kerry another 2-3 pts putting him roughly 10 pts up.

Bush hits back hard with negative ads and his own convention but its only somewhat effective cutting the lead down to 3-4 come election day.

Kerry ekes out a 10-20 EV win.

That's my crystal ball prediction anyways.

[VolcanoJen]

10. How much more negative can Bush go, though?

I doubt they intended to unleash this barrage of negative ads before Memorial Day. I'm sure they're way ahead of schedule, as far as the bag-o-tricks is concerned, and they might be scrambling, late in the game. Horrible, horrible offense thus far.

It begs the question... how low will they go? How much more negative can they attempt to go before it really turns on them? I'm worried, and optimistic, at the same time.

Check out this LBN thread for a fascinating, front-page WP article about Bush's historically early negative barrage:

From Bush, Unprecedented Negativity (WP)

From Monday's WP article:

Three-quarters of the ads aired by Bush's campaign have been attacks on Kerry. Bush so far has aired 49,050 negative ads in the top 100 markets, or 75 percent of his advertising. Kerry has run 13,336 negative ads -- or 27 percent of his total. The figures were compiled by The Washington Post using data from the Campaign Media Analysis Group of the top 100 U.S. markets. Both campaigns said the figures are accurate.

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

15. That's what I wonder

I guess they're gonna test the bounds. Bush has to go negative, but you would think at one point it will come back to haunt him.

[TruthIsAll]

11. Kerry must and will win by more than 10-20 EV.

Because Bush will steal it if it's at all close.

I expect Kerry to get 54% and 350-400 EV.

It won't be close.

[Don_G]

8. He's Falling With Every Poll

http://www.radiofreemonkey.com:8080/charts/img_bush_approval.gif

[Wapsie B]

9. I'm just hoping

that chimpy's supposed coattails ensnare enough repugs in the House to tip the balance our way.

[Warren DeMontague]

12. That Certainly Explains

Last week's terror alert.

[dusty64]

13. 34 to 38 percent

seems to be the amount of his base support, those who could watch him eat a baby alive and STILL vote for him.

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

14. Ya gotta get him in the 30's

He's weakened but not mortally