Does deflating the strength (polls) of Kerry help or hurt bush?

[salin]

Almost wonder if the media bush enablers are doing bush a disservice and will contribute to lower enthusiasm and lower turnout for bush's base in the long-run. Sure in the short run it makes them all feel better... but in the long-run it seems to perhaps work against bush as folks stay in a complacent state of denial...

Just wondering after reading several items (related to CNN) which seem to indicate deflating the import of Kerry's lead ...

[charlyvi]

1. I like it when Kerry is low.....

we can get more Kerry voters to the polls that way. I think Bush* has made a mistake in targeting his base only. There can't be enough rich folks and crazy folks to elect him--even if they ALL come out on election day.

[goju]

2. All about expectations

So long as the expectations arent a 10 point boost for Kerry, the poll numbers wont have any real meaning right now. The average is 5 points after the convention. Repugs have tried to over inflate the expectations to 10+ points so that they can create the impression that the convention faultered. It hasnt worked.

Every show that I have watched is on their game. They know that the most to expect is 5 to 7 points. Any attempt by bushies crew to exaggerate the effects of the convention are being dismissed.

[salin]

3. I am not sure I am following

what you are saying...

The GOP wants to overinflate the effect of the convention to 10+ points... why? (not sure how this would show the convention faltered)

I can see how if they over inflate a "bump" they can credit the bump solely to the convention and sell it as brief and temporary and "not real"... as a means for hedging vote depression (folks so sure their guy is going to lose that they stay inactive and stay home.)

Would love more clarity on your point. THanks.

[goju]

7. Yes

They wanted to try, for the last few weeks, to suggest that Kerry would get a 10 point boost, or thereabouts. That way, when all we got was the predicted and historically average 5 point boost, the bushies can claim we have LESS enthusiasm than was predicted and that the convention had LESS impact than it should have had.

Its a PR game. If they could show suggest that there is less support for Kerry than what was expected, they can make a case that there is MORE support for repugs.

[salin]

8. I see - now that makes sense

was reading your description of 10+ as post convention spin.

I see the spin... However I think that their passing on their delusions/denial to their base is going to be counter productive... let them continue to feel smug and thus not needed in terms of activity.

[goju]

9. That might have been an unintended consequence.

But I think the spin was to be directed at the swing voters. Nobody wants to vote for the losing team, thus, Kerry's relatively flat showing of only a 5 point boost, might encourage swinger voters to go the other way.

[kentuck]

4. Good question salin...

In my opinion, it is better if Bush is ahead or close enough to win according to the "polls". If there are any people that are having doubts about his "leadership", and I have to believe there are many, then they would think harder about their decision about pulling the lever for the Shrub, than if he were far behind. I think the polls can be a double-edged sword in these instances and I would not put a lot of stock in them.

[salin]

5. interesting point

just like our side, some who voted for Nader last time will think hard before repeating that vote because if close their vote may carry great "responsibility".

I am just curious - because there seems to be a concerted effort - and while I think the intent is to help bush (as in parotting blast fax points), intuitively I don't think that it will help him in the long run.

Interesting point raised above - suggests that maybe what I am seeing is not a concerted effort to deflate the lead of Kerry, but instead a failed effort by the rovian faxblasts to inflate Kerry's bounce which is getting rejected by those doing some of the reporting.

[readmylips]

6. Dems 100% united except for coward Z Miller....

The democrats are on a win-win road. Most people who do not vote are the poor, American citizens the repigs have no interest in. From where are the repigs going to get more voters? If the Democrats can register and get them to vote, at least 10% of the non voting citizens, Kerry wins. I want bush to lose by a landslide.