Iraq: Till Death Do Us Part?

[Kenneth ken]

Quitxote1818 asked the question late Friday/early Saturday “Am I the only person on DU who thinks Kerry needs a new plan for Iraq?

Some of the comments were to the effect that we need to just get out.

So, my question is, what happens if, like Vietnam, we simply declare victory and leave?

At the present time Iraq is a very badly destabilized and damaged nation. Yet it still holds the 2nd largest oil reserves in the world.

Scenarios:

1. The US (and what remain of our allies) pull out; Iraq falls into civil war, and the Shia majority population gains control of Iraq. They set up a regime more-or-less along the lines of Saddam Hussein’s rule; make nice with the west and use the oil to get the money to rebuild the country.

2. The US pulls out, Iraq falls into civil war and the Sunni faction (bin Laden’s side) gains control of Iraq.

3. The US pulls out, the international community steps in and brokers a peace that stabilizes the country, and forces the US (and it’s allies of the invasion) to pay reparations for rebuilding Iraq.

4. The US pulls out, Iraq falls into civil war and the neighboring nations fall on the wounded nation, and carve it up for their own benefit.

5. ???

Among my questions are:

1. Would bin Laden and his jihadists want Iraq? To take control of it and try to rebuild it makes them more of a stationary and so, strikeable target than they are now. On the other hand, bin Laden loses prestige if he fails to do what he can to aid and protect the Muslims in that weakened nation (or does he?)

2. Would the jihadists accept any sort of government “tainted” by intervention from the west?
(In Afghanistan, Karzai, is the nominal President, but the effective “Mayor of Kabul”; and that only as long as the US protects him.)

3. How does the international community prevent Iraq’s neighbors from moving in and carving it up for their own benefit?

I believe as long as the US stays in Iraq, the fighting will never cease, unless we truly win, by destroying resistance until there is none. I don’t know if we have the will to do that.

Yet, every dollar we spend on the Iraq “war” is a dollar we don’t have for supporting our own infrastructure, and society, so it is a continual drain on our national “lifeblood.”

[whistle]

1. What happened in Vietnam after Nixon promised that he...

...had a secret plan to end the war in 1968 to get elected was 7 more years of fighting and bombing and Americans being killed. It seems that Bush is taking us right back to that miserable time 30 years later.

[Kenneth ken]

3. yes, but even moreso

the Vietnamese didn't have any goals to defeat the US as a world power, they just wanted us out of their country. Bin Laden and his followers want the US and western control/meddling out of every Muslim contry in the world - they're not willing to stop with us leaving Iraq.

[izzie]

5. We were told the Reds wanted to control the world.

That was the point of the war in the first place or the one that was fed to us. It looks like they really just wanted to control that country, now.

[ClintonTyree]

2. If America (er excuse me, the COALITION were to)...........

pull out today, I don't believe there would be a civil war. The Iraqi's, left to their own devices, would sort this out in some matter that, although not equitable to all, would have some semblance of a ragtag Democracy although heavily weighted on the secular side.

I actually think Iraq would be better off if we were to cut and run. The United States would not fare as well, we would be reviled (much as we are now) but their oil would still be on the open market and they would use that money to benefit all Iraqis, not a privileged few.

Perhaps that's a rather naive assessment on my part, but the present occupation isn't working, will never work and we're wasting a tremendous amount of money and lives to stubbornly insist that it will work.

I honestly think that at this juncture Iraq should take control of their own destiny, for good or ill, and let the chips fall where they may.

[Kenneth ken]

4. I think that's the best -case scenario

but "left to their own devices" is the problem. Jihadists didn't have much, if any presence before we invaded, but I do believe they are their now, and I think they would undermine any sort of secular government. Any new government in Iraq would start out pretty weak, unlike the regime Hussein had in place before the 1991 war.

I truly don't know.

Kind of hard to believe that any Iraqi government would be willing to sell oil to the US though, after we trashed their country and walked away. It might, most likely would be available to other countries, but not the US.

I wouldn't really mind if the US suffered some hardships, like gas lines, or rationing, etc. as a consequence of our stupid invasion; but, of course, I don't want us destroyed as that consequence.

[izzie]

6. I think we should just leave and let them make the govt they can.

I do not think we will as we are ringing the Middle East or the oil with American bases for some reason. Interesting how some people think. I had a young man, in business for him self, tell me this week that it was our oil and we had a right to have it as cheap as the Saudis did. What could have made him think like that? I started to fight back and he just shut me up with the pure shock of it being our oil.

[Kenneth ken]

7. we will leave

the question is how many US deaths it will take to convince us to do so. Or how bad the cost will hurt our economy before we are forced to leave in order to save it.

Geeze, I'm just not getting anything here that disuades me from thinking this invasion will be the death of the US. If we pull out, we lose in the eyes of the jihadists, and that can only encourage them. If we stay, we just keep beeding in troops, morale, and economic stability.

"our oil" - I don't even have words for how stupid/ignorant/awful that is. No wonder you didn't have an argument to counter that.

[NewJeffCT]

8. I think there would be civil war

It would potentially drag in Turkey (because of the Kurds in Iraq & Turkey)... who knows who else would get involved? Iran on the side of the Shia? Syria? Israel even? Al Qaeda, Zarqawi, etc are wild cards. It could end up like Afghanistan or Somalia - basically chaos with warlords controlling their own little fiefdoms, constantly skirmishing with neighboring warlords.

[Kenneth ken]

9. grand

WWIII - don't forget Pakistan, they don't seem to be all that opposed to al-Qaeda/Taleban, even though they're "our allies." And that would bring in India at some point. Both are nulcear powers.

there's a cheery prospect.

That's in line with my worries; too much oil-wealth in what would be a very unstable country. How could others not want to dabble for influence and personal gain?

[Kenneth ken]

10. okay, I'm off to swim now.

maybe someone will post something truly hopeful while I'm gone.

:hi: