Luntz: "It's time for Bush to get worried" (GOOD POLL NEWS!)

[friesianrider]

Short Summary: Slate's numbers today show Bush only 2 points ahead of Kerry in electoral votes and Electoral-Vote shows Bush ahead only 257 to 243. Undecided voters are moving toward Kerry.

"Its time for Bush to get worried" "Frank Luntz, the top Republican
pollster wrote in the Financial Times: "Step by step, debate-by-debate, John Kerry has addressed and removed many remaining doubts among uncommitted voters. My own polling research after each debate suggests a rather bleak outlook for the Bush candidacy: many who still claim to be 'undecided' are in fact leaning to Mr. Kerry and are about ready to commit." In a world where the spinmeisters constantly claim that their horse can not only walk on water, but also trot and gallop on it, having a top GOP strategist with access to real data say his horse is sinking fast is ominous for the Bush campaign."

[friesianrider]

1. More...

(This is from the Kerry Student Network):

National Poll Summary (New)

ABC/Washington Post Daily Tracking (New)
Bush 48%
Kerry 48%
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html

Electoral
Bush 257
Kerry 243

"The race is starting to tighten as the effects of the third debate are
now kicking in. Kerry has regained his lead in New Jersey albeit by
only 2% according to a new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll. More
important, we now have Florida as an exact tie."
http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct16.html

Projected Final Electoral Votes
Bush 295
Kerry 203
Projection of the final map. This map is based on the projections from
the least squares linear regression lines on the state polls.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct16p.html

Tripias
Bush 298
Kerry 240
http://www.tripias.com/state/

Slate's Election Scorecard
Bush 270
Kerry 268
http://www.slate.com/id/2108019/

"Current map shows Bush can win without Ohio, Pennsylvania, or
Wisconsin. His winning combination: Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New
Mexico, and defeat or invalidation of the Colorado ballot measure on
splitting its electoral votes. If he gets Wisconsin, he can afford to lose
New Hampshire and New Mexico, or one of those two states plus the
ballot measure. If he gets Ohio, Wisconsin, and the northern district of
Maine, he can afford to lose Florida and the ballot measure."
http://www.slate.com/id/2108019/

RCP
Bush 264
Kerry 237
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html

RCP
Bush 48.2%
Kerry 46.2%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

Rasmussen
Bush 48.3%
Kerry 46.2%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

New State Polls (New)

10-16 15 Bush by 10% Georgia 51-41-n-(4.5) 10/13 - 10/14 Atlanta
Journal-Constitution

10-15 15 Kerry by 2% New Jersey 42-44-2-(4.5) 10/8 - 10/14
Fairleigh Dickinson University
10-15 27 Kerry by 4% Florida 44-48-n-(5) 10/12 - 10/14
InsiderAdvantage
10-15 27 Tie Florida 47-47-1-(3.5) 10/4 - 10/10 Washington Post
10-15 27 Bush by 3% Florida 49-46-n-(4) 10/8 - 10/14 Rasmussen
Reports
10-15 3 Bush by 10% South Dakota 52-42-n-(4.5) 10/12 Rasmussen
Reports
10-15 9 Bush by 24% Alabama 56-32-1-(4) 10/12 - 10/14 Capital
Survey Research


Intrade Odds
Bush 53.0
Kerry 45.9

[keopeli]

2. Thanks!

[kysrsoze]

3. Credit fuckwad Luntz and his toupee for finally being honest

I never thought I'd hear it. He must be worried about his employment prospects post Nov. 2.

[TahitiNut]

4. Playin' possum.

:shrug:

[DeepModem Mom]

5. kick