Juan Cole's 10 point plan for an Exit Strategy.....what do you think?

[AnnInLa]

((I often read this blog, because professor cole presents middle east concerns in a way that even I can understand them.))

www.juancole.com

Monday, August 22, 2005

Ten Things Congress Could Demand from Bush on Iraq

The Washington Post notes that the Democratic Party is deeply divided between those who want US troops out now and those who fear the consequences and think it best to stay the course. The article might as well have noted that the Republicans are also divided on Iraq policy.
So the issue isn't a partisan one. It is an American one.




Personally, I think "US out now" as a simple mantra neglects to consider the full range of possible disasters that could ensue. For one thing, there would be an Iraq civil war. Iraq wasn't having a civil war in 2002. And although you could argue that what is going on now is a subterranean, unconventional civil war, it is not characterized by set piece battles and hundreds of people killed in a single battle, as was true in Lebanon in 1975-76, e.g. People often allege that the US military isn't doing any good in Iraq and there is already a civil war. These people have never actually seen a civil war and do not appreciate the lid the US military is keeping on what could be a volcano.

All it would take would be for Sunni Arab guerrillas to assassinate Grand Ayatollah Sistani. And, boom. If there is a civil war now that kills a million people, with ethnic cleansing and millions of displaced persons, it will be our fault, or at least the fault of the 75% of Americans who supported the war. (Such a scenario is entirely plausible. Look at Afghanistan. It was a similar-sized country with similar ethnic and ideological divisions. One million died 1979-1992, and five million were displaced. Moreover, all this helped get New York and the Pentagon blown up.) I mean, we are always complaining, and rightly so, about the genocide in Darfur and the inattention to genocides in Rwanda and the Congo earlier. Can we really live with ourselves if we cast Iraqis into such a maelstrom deliberately?



And as I have argued before, an Iraq civil war will likely become a regional war, drawing in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Turkey. If a regional guerrilla war breaks out among Kurds, Turks, Shiites and Sunni Arabs, the guerrillas could well apply the technique of oil pipeline sabotage to Iran and Saudi Arabia, just as they do now to the Kirkuk pipeline in Iraq. If 20% of the world's petroleum production were taken off-line by such sabotage, the poor of the world would be badly hurt, and the whole world would risk another Great Depression.

((And then, Professor Cole presents his 10 point plan for drawdown of the troops and an exit strategy. Are we being shortsighted in demanding immediate withdrawal?)) www.juancole.com

[shadowknows69]

1. All I see is further opportunity for American led bloodshed

get out now. we made this mess and can't completely run away from it but we can do that without a military presence. troops home now. the country is going to end up being an islamic state. we're never going to win the hearts and minds of an islamic state by having a bunch of armed christians occupying them.

[AnnInLa]

3. What about the effects on the rest of the world

that Cole mentions? I desperately want the troops home now...but, I have a conscious about the effects of that immediate withdrawal on the area, on the world. Am torn.

[AnnInLa]

4. er, that would be conscience....pardon the mispell

[no_to_war_economy]

5. i read him every morning but he disappoints on this

he just talks about containing the low level civil war, what about ending it ... that is what we in the 'bring them home now' wants, a stop to this madness

the sunni don't hate us for our freedoms, they hate and kill marines because they see us as occupiers and see the Shiites as a puppet government

would I have always wished to see from juan is the one true way to end this, and that is a negotiated peace process

they agree to a cease fire, we agree to withdraw to bases only and then a timetabled complete withdraw

they agree to stop killing Shiites and we agree to a new full complete election with FULL sunni participation, an election with NO usa influence

what everyone and juan cole must understand is that we the USA has to eat crow for this tragedy, we have to negotiate and bend to the Sunnis in order to bring them all home

[MsTryska]

2. thanks for this......

I had been coming to the exact same conclusion as Juan Cole in regards to where we go from here. The problem was that I couldn't see any way out - I like his 10-point plan, and it definitely provides an option c to either staying in a quagmire or pulling out and leaving a mess.

[othermeans]

6. I read that ten point plan and it makes sense. People that are

willing to accept a civil war seem to be echoing neo-conservative Michael Leeden: "One can only hope that we turn the region into a cauldron, and faster, please. If ever there were a region that richly deserved being cauldronized, it is the Middle East today."

I would think the wrtings of a neo-con, a former advisor to Reagan, Bush and Bush II, who was also involved in the Iran-Contra scandal should not be our guide in dealing with the crisis which is Iraq.

[MadHound]

7. The thing is friend,

It doesn't matter when we complete the pull out, no matter what plan that we follow, as soon as we are gone, there will be a civil war, for much like in Vietnam, any government that we set up and support is going to be considered illegit and immoral by the Iraqi people. And once we leave, all hell is going to break loose.

Sure, we can do Cole's ten point plan, and we will continue to kill more innocent Iraqis, with a civil war when we leave. Or we can leave now, and yes a civil war will follow.

I know, it is a lose-lose proposition no matter which road we take. However I think that we should the death and destruction, and the only way to do that is to leave, now.