What will be the turnout in CA election?

[kentuck]

I have seen predictions of around 51% and higher? But what if it is not? What if only 38% vote? It is an off-year election. We will get to see every Repub trick in the book in a compressed amount of time. We'll get to see the fake polls. We'll get to see them accuse their opponent of being "negative". We'll get to see them accuse Bustamante of being the same as Gray Davis. We'll get to see them build up Arnold as if he is some great statesman or great thinker. Etc...etc.

But if the turnout is lower than they anticipate, Gray Davis will win. Because if the election hinges on the serious voters, Arnold will not win. He is dependent on the circus atmosphere and the "Terminator" voters that confuse movies with reality. But, will they actually go to the polls next Tuesday? I doubt it.

[On the Road]

1. For a Special Election, 38% Would be Very High

but all the publicity and partisanship should boost the turnout -- it might actually exceed 30%. This would be good for Davis (or for Busatmente if the recall succeeds).

Conventional wisdom is that Republicans are more motivated in special elections, but given Schwartzenegger's drawbacks and the anger of many Dems at the whole process, this could be reversed.

[im4edwards]

2. you could be right

but I don't totally buy it unless you say that it could make the McClintock vote go higher than predicted at the Terminator's expense.

In any event I don't think much will help Davis but you never know.

[gristy]

3. I wonder if you might have something here

Because if the election hinges on the serious voters, Arnold will not win.

All those goofballs who are polled and say they are voting for Ahnold just might be extremely suspect in their ability to find their polling place next week.

[realFedUp]

4. I would think many would just turn out to vote no on Prop. 54

Might bring out more African-Americans.
Bustamante probably will bring out more Latinos
and Indians
Gray will bring out Dems mad about the recall...
and those who want him out

And Arnold will bring out those who really abhor
the thought that he'll be a lame duck commuter governor two
days a week between movie roles and personal appearances.

[TNOE]

5. Been out of the loop somewhat

how many counties are using the Black Box Voting machines in California? Therein probably lies your answer. I want to say American's are smart enough not to vote for Schwartzenegger, but after seeing some of them interviewed, I don't have a whole lot of faith.

[gristy]

6. only a handful

The biggest counties are using punchcards.

[TNOE]

7. Well thank the Good Lord or Goddess or whatever

for that small favor. How on earth could Arnold really win it??????
My faith in humanity is being lessened each and every day.