4 PM. CST Storm landfall projections......and a Texas map.

[Dover]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W+gif/204626W_sm.gif

[Zynx]

1. At least it is veering away from Houston.

[crispini]

5. port arthur and beaumont are pretty populated too.

and have most of the refineries. welcome to $5 / gal gas.

[faithnotgreed]

8. please correct me if i am wrong but dont hurricanes

often inflict more damage on the westward side of it than the eastern

[Zynx]

10. North-eastern quadrant is the worst.

However, western edge can push a lot of water as we saw with Katrina.

[Horse with no Name]

12. Backwards.

Eastern side is the wet side.
Western side is dry.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

14. It's the opposite. Storm surge is greatest to the east

As it wraps around counterclockwise it pushes the water inland.

[faithnotgreed]

19. thank you to all who corrected me

we dont need bad information out there

[Geoff R. Casavant]

30. And kudos

for those who make mistakes, admit them, and learn from them. :-)

Peace.

[faithnotgreed]

31. well

if you invite correction you better be ok with it

ha

[Reciprocity]

43. The most damage is the right hand punch.

Take the hurricane slice it into four pieces. The wind travels counter clockwise. So; the 12 o'clock to 3 o'clock quarter is the most powerful. Hope that helped.

[aquart]

23. Sugarland gets a pass.

[wakeme2008]

2. but but but will it hit the Pig Farm

:evilgrin:

[Larkspur]

7. No, Crawford is west of Waco and Rita is going way east of there

Of course, Rita could still drown Bush's ranch. That would be funny.

[Dover]

11. Poppy and Babs live in Houston.....when they're not in Kenny Bunk n/t

[TheCentepedeShoes]

34. OOOOH.. in Kenny Lay's bunk?

Now, that brings up some visuals.

[donheld]

38. Crawford is just a bit west of waco

http://mq-mapgend.websys.aol.com/?e=9&GetMapDirect=Gme5diw%2ca%3a9u12%3b%40%24x9%2d8xq072%26%3d1a%21wrl567%3ag%2drxu48s%26w%40wu0ta0%40b5gyza%26u2gu%2c2%3a9672%3b%40b20w%24%3a%26%40%24x9%2d8xq072%26%3d1a%21wrl567%3a%26%4025u6%40l%3b%40zauu%24%3a

[stepnw1f]

3. Such a Beautiful Country

Off topic, but I was imagining what the coast looks like in person.

Back on topic: It looks like New Orleans is getting flooded from this.

[Dover]

16. Yeah, that's what I was thinking too. I wonder if the weather folk have

projected the amount of rainfall N.O will get yet?

[nadinbrzezinski]

4. my god it is going into hill country as well

[pop goes the weasel]

24. nope

it's well east of the hill country, which is to the west of I-35.

[alfredo]

6. So Port Arthur and Beaumont

could be the big targets.

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

9. TARGET ZONE question: Isn't this exactly where the refineries are?

The area north of Houston to the western part of Louisiana has the highest concentration of oil rigs and big refineries, right?

[Dover]

13. Yep.

[Zynx]

17. Well, shoot.

That ain't good.

[Dover]

25. Refineries

[Zynx]

27. It is going to decimate the oil industry.

[Auntie Bush]

37. No, it's going to decimate us! They'll pass the cost on to the consumer.

They will see to it that they still make a huge profit.

[AspenRose]

15. Oh Nacogdoches is going to get a lot of rain

That's where my cousin from Clear Lake evacuated....

[Dover]

18. Hi D.R.! Yes, it looks that way. Hope they are on high ground.

We should all include a bailing bucket in our emergency kits..LOL!

[yella_dawg]

33. That's where I am.

They're predicting hurricane force winds in Lufkin (20 mi south) late tomorrow, early Saturdy. I'm unhappy. To damned many trees. We gonna be outa power for weeks.


I wanna go home! (San Antonio)

[SaintLouisBlues]

44. Some forecasts have Rita stalling over the Piney Woods

with up to two feet of rain.

As had been usual before Katrina, more people die from inland freshwater flooding than from wind and surge.

[Reciprocity]

45. It looks like it may land on top of me in Lufkin, Nac is north of me.

I'll take all the prayers, positive thoughts, and good vibes you all can spare, as I live in the woods with some pine trees 100 to 200 feet tall. My town is in grid lock from traffic, from the coast and Houston area. God I wonder how those poor souls take a pee when they are trapped on the highways going one mph in 103° temps?

All our stores have been raided for supplies all our shelters are full. Most folks are so exhausted by the time they got here they simply could not drive any further for fear of falling asleep at the wheel. We are out of gas as well. We already have Katrina evacuees here.

oops,forgot to add they said on the news not to go to the ER at both our hospitals unless it is life or death, as they are full too.

That said on a happier note, on the news last night, I was heartened to see horses being housed in the Expo center as well as cats, and dogs. One young women was sipping on a soda and would then give her horse a drink with the other end of the straw. Another young girl about twelve was hugging her horse for dear life. I know if I was a horse person I'd be doing the same thing.

[mnhtnbb]

20. Just heard 200mph surface gusts

reported on the Weather Channel from Hurricane trackers

[rzemanfl]

21. Here's an important map:

[Dover]

22. What are we looking at?

And can you enlarge it?

[rzemanfl]

26. Oil rigs and refineries in the path of Rita (Texas and Louisianna

coast). I don't know how to make it any larger.

[jody]

28. IMO Rita is going East of Port Arthur into South West Louisiana. n/t

[Ksec]

29. It will veer right and hit New Orleans

Hope not but thats my prediction

[LittleClarkie]

32. Fuck fuck fuck fuck FUCK

fuck fuck fuck.

!@#$%^&!!!!!!

[QC]

36. What's the basis of your prediction?

Seriously, I'm curious about that. The NHC has nailed every recent hurricane I can think of, so I'm inclined to believe them but open to other possibilities.

[jody]

39. Look at

the wind predictions at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025048.shtml?tswind120

and then look at the animation that shows Rita turning back toward the Texas-Louisiana border, see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml

[QC]

42. I see only a 5-10% probability of hurricane force winds in N.O.

in that chart.

The animation is no surprise--there's been a gradual shift toward the TX/LA border underway for some time now. It would take a pretty sudden, radical swing at this point to bring the storm into New Orleans, though--right now, Rita is more or less due south of New Orleans.



I'm not saying it can't happen, but it doesn't seem very likely, certainly not likely enough to justify the Chicken Little post I was responding to.

[Auntie Bush]

35. If it hits Texas....Here's how to save a lot of money and problems

Give the state back to Mexico along with Bush and his ranch.
They can have 'em.

[mshasta]

40. that's mess up...

they don't need to clean up the gringos mess...and did you know what they will be more than happy to help..the americans...!

[highplainsdem]

41. It's veering west again, according to CNN and Fox.

First heard this on Fox two hours ago. CNN's Chad Myers mentioned it half an hour after that, then again an hour later, and confirmed it again a few minutes ago after getting the latest data. Rita's now slightly west of the track shown on the map here. The meteorologist on FOX at 8 CDT predicted landfall at Galveston. Myers was more cautious on CNN, said it's still a bit too early to know if this is a real turn or just a temporary wobble, but he sounded concerned. If Rita continues on this slightly more western track, it'll go right across a very warm vortex eddy and strengthen further.

Editing to add that Max Mayfield was just on CNN, and he thinks it's just a wobble and he's still expecting landfall near Port Arthur.