Will CA Govenor's office be won by a Green

[jiacinto]

First of all I want to make sure I understand the situation.

First on the recall ballot you decide whether you want Davis recalled or not. On the second list you vote for his replacements regardless of how you answer the first question.

There will be no Democrat on the list of candidates, so it will be a choice between the Green and the Republican candidate. Since every statewide Dem elected has decided not to run does that mean that there will be no Democratic candidate?

So then doesn't that mean that every Democrat has to vote Green in the recall in order to prevent a GOP takeover of the state?

And could Peter Camejo govern effectively if my reading of the situation is correct?

[proud patriot]

1. Hmmm

I think if you vote yes you choose a different
govenor ...Not sure if you get a choice other
than keeping Davis if you vote no ..

Good question Carlos

[jiacinto]

2. Okay

Well I guess others will explain it to us.

[TahitiNut]

6. Googling ...

"To get a recall vote, 897,158 signatures (12 percent of the number of people who voted in last November’s governor’s race) are required. Then a two-part ballot would be put before the voters, who would decide whether to oust Davis, and would pick his replacement from names on the ballot. Anyone who gathers 65 signatures—yes, just 65; anyone’s friends and relatives will suffice—and pays $3,500 gets on the ballot.
Some Democrats had hoped to get Sen. Dianne Feinstein to pledge to serve only the remainder of Davis’s term, in exchange for a guarantee that no other Democrat’s name would be on the ballot. But she has said she will not run, and now every other Democrat elected statewide has made a similar pledge." (MSNBC)

"Should the recall qualify, voters would be asked two questions: whether to retain Davis, and if not, with whom to replace him. If Davis is rejected, his replacement would be decided with a plurality vote. In a state controlled by Democrat voters, Republicans' best chance at winning is likely a ballot with many Democrats and one or two Republicans." (ContraCosta Times)


I can't personally imagine that voters would be disenfranchised (prohibited from voting for the replacement) by virtue of their vote against a recall. Since when does any vote on one ballot item lock out one's vote on another?

[ronnykmarshall]

23. The ballot

I think that you are able to vote for a candidate even if you vote "no" on the recall.

Like I said before, if no Democrat in on the ballot, I'll vote for the Green candidate and vote NO on the recall.

[Terwilliger]

3. OMG CARLOS!

We may have won a convert! (even if he can't see this message)

The Green governor would still have a hostile state congress, but I think it really takes the Repukes out of the game.

IF, and that's a big if, the hardcore Dems can hold their nose and pull the lever for a Green!!! :bounce:

[ronnykmarshall]

24. Voting for a Green.

Yeah, I'll vote for a Green. But don't start thinking I'm a convert either! ;-)


This would be such sweet justice, IF Davis is recalled and the GOP wakes up with a GREEN in office.

[LeftCoast]

4. As things stand now, I believe you are correct at least in part.

About 99% sure about this, but I believe that even if you vote against the recall you still vote for replacement. Additionally, to my knowledge no other Dem's would be on. I THINK that Davis can go on as a candidate and win even if he loses the recall (though this should really be fact checked).

By my thinking, the recall ballot would basically ask if you wanted to recall the governor yes/no and then would list out a BUNCH of candidates (basically anyone who can come up with the filing fee ($3k?). If Dem's are disciplined, there will be only one Dem candidate (Gray Davis) versus a whole bunch of other guys. At this point, all Davis needs to do is get the most votes. As long as no other Dem gets in the race, it's probably Davis who'll win in that senario. A big wild card is when the election will take place. Issa wants it to happen soon (I think it would be a special elect. in Nov). Dem's want it to happen in March along with the primary so the turnout will be much better and Davis will have a MUCH better chance of winning as well. The timing is dependent on when the signatures are counted. State officials are currently attempting to use a legal loophole to delay the counting until the March election is assured.

Sorry I can't be more sure about some of these facts. As a resident of CA, I've been trying to keep a close watch on the situation. As I learn more I'll post to DU if folks are interested.

[Jack Rabbit]

10. You're incorrect in one important respect

I THINK that Davis can go on as a candidate and win even if he loses the recall (though this should really be fact checked).

Until recently, I thought so, too. However, state law prohibits the target of a recall from being a candidate to replace himself.

[LeftCoast]

17. Thanks for that info-update!

Then, I think the only big question is when candidates need to file to be on the recall ballot...

[ronnykmarshall]

26. Davis on the ballot?

>>I THINK that Davis can go on as a candidate and win even if he loses the recall (though this should really be fact checked).<<

No he can't. I've already checked that.

[ShaneGR]

5. If hell freezes over, it is possible

Of course, it's pretty hot right now, so probably not.

[Jack Rabbit]

7. Your reading of the situation is correct

Peter Camejo has nothing to lose by running. If no Democrat runs as a replacement candidate and the Republicans splinter themselves among three or four candidates, Camejo would have a real chance.

Camejo's ability should not be underestimated. True, he has been a perennial candidate for alternative parties over the years. That is something for which some might have trouble taking him seriously. However, he is a successful financial consultant and an expert in socially responsible investing.

I also offer this editorial from my hometown newspaper, the Napa Register. Napa is not a hotbed of radical opinion and the Register usually reflects that. However, the paper endorsed Camejo for governor last fall. The stated reasons were good ones.

At the time of the election, I believed Camejo was a better candidate than Davis. However, Davis was only seven points ahead in the last poll with a huge number of undecideds, so I decided to play it safe and vote for Davis to block Simon. If Davis had been any further ahead, I would have voted for Camejo.

The two issues -- the recall and the replacement election -- will be on the same ballot. If the recall fails, the replacement votes will not be counted. According to the material I read on the web from the Secretary of State's office, a voter must vote YES or NO on the recall question for his vote to be counted in the replacement election.

[jiacinto]

8. So then

By having to vote for Camejo they make the Green Party suddenly credible. A Camejo vicotry means that the Greens finally become a credible, mainstream political party. And that means that Camejo will probably be the Green candidate for president.

So how would a Camejo-Bush-Dem race turn out?

[TahitiNut]

11. It wouldn't take a successful recall, either.

Imagine if the recall vote fails BUT Camejo gets a landslide (define it however you will) vote as replacement, beating every GOP contender. Now, tell me that wouldn't enhance the Green's credibility? (What's that word? "electable"????)

[Jack Rabbit]

13. If the recall fails, we wouldn't know that

The replacement votes will not be counted unless the recall is successful.

[ronnykmarshall]

28. Good point

But I do think that if Camejo were to win, he'd have a tough job ahead of him. ANYONE that is elected to replace Davis (considering the declared candidates) will probably not be re-elected in 2006.

There are huge problems to face and considering that this god-damned election will take away the focus from those problems, California is getting screwed.

[Jack Rabbit]

12. Not necessarily

There are serious rumblings in the Green Party nationally to not field a presidential candidate. The argument (to which I subscribe) is that Bush has created a national emergency. He must be removed, regardless of who replaces him. Often on these boards, I've made the analogy with the French resistance during World War II. To drive the Nazis out of their country, Frech leftists, including Communists, made common cause with the sober conservative General de Gaulle.

I do not believe a Green presidential candidate in 2004 will do as well as Nader did in 2000, especially if the election appears to be close. If election is a runaway, either for or against Bush, a Green presidential candidated will do better.

The other question is would this be enough to make the Green party credible nationally. While it would help, especially if Camejo turns out to be an impressive governor, I think it would take a little more than that. Camejo would still have to run for his own term in 2006 and, should he win, would be termed out in 2010. The Greens would have to score other successes to become a credible party. Otherwise, a Green California governor would be wrfitten off as a fluke.

[Iverson]

19. close

I doubt that Camejo would become the presidential candidate in that scenario, at least for 2004. He'd have a big enough job on his hands.

Also, credibility is largely an individual construction. This notion of sudden credibility doesn't hold a lot of water, especially since I can guess that one of us already finds the Green party and platform credible, and the other would not under nearly any circumstance. "Mainstream," however, I think is a correct assessment.

[RapidCreek]

20. Greens are bad

Dems are good. Camejo would hurt the dems so he must be bad....regardless of his stand on the issues. How one stands on the issues is not important.....the only important thing is ones electability.

sarcasm off....

RC

[MSchreader]

27. He wouldn't run

As much as he may get pressure to do so, Camejo is one of those pushing for more of a local/state emphasis in 2004. He wouldn't jeopardize his position at that point to get into a bloody federal campaign.

Martin

[Ishkaboogl]

9. here's how it works

choose recall or not

then, no matter what your response was in part 1, choose who you want to fill the office IN THE EVENT THAT THE GOVERNOR IS RECALLED.

[Capn Sunshine]

14. STOP ME IF I'M WRONG...

But I keep hearing that it won't get that far. If there's a projected loss by Davis he is going to RESIGN, the Lt. Gov. takes over , the recall becomes MOOT.

RIGHT?

[davidinalameda]

18. Davis needs to step down

His credibility has been destroyed.

If he contines to go along with this, he's going to destroy what's left of his political career and possibly those around him.

He needs to step down.

If the Green candidate wins, he'll be a figure head and nothing more. He'll be sitting in an office doing pretty much nothing. If the Republican wins, you'll see California fall so far down the shitter, Mississippi will start looking good. The Democrats will not approve any of his or her appointments to the executive branch. The state will grind to a major halt.

[MSchreader]

30. I disagree

If the Green candidate wins, he'll be a figure head and nothing more. He'll be sitting in an office doing pretty much nothing.

If Camejo is elected, he will be a more effective DEMOCRATIC governor than Davis. I guarantee you, he will look, talk and act like a Democrat if he's elected.

I know him. Trust me on this one.

Martin

[ronnykmarshall]

29. That remains to be seen.

I would hope that Davis would step down in it looks like the recall would win.

[David__77]

15. I've thought about it...

Certainly Camejo could get 25% of the vote--I think no more. If there were a few GOPers splitting things up, it could be interesting. I think that in CA it'd be interesting if you had a left, center-left and right-wing party. It'd certainly be more interesting.

[MaryBear]

16. This is an interesting thread, however

it begs the real question which is the cost of recalls to the economy and also to the democratic process. When a rich person can buy a recall and force an election, we are in trouble, whether the money is green, or purple.

[Iverson]

21. Greens neutral on Davis recall

FYI, crew. The three paragraphs are excerpted just in case any readers believe the propaganda that conflates the Greens and the Republicans.

http://www.cagreens.org/press/pr030508.htm

SACRAMENTO - In its trademark
consensus style, the Green Party of
California (GPCA) ended last weekend's
state meeting with this unanimous
decision: the state party organization will
not join Republican efforts to recall Gray
Davis. However, Greens say they will be
ready with a candidate if the effort proves
successful, and some individual Greens
are already working on the recall.

"The Green Party wants to make sure this
recall is not used by the Republicans to
install a Governor who does not represent
the will of the electorate," Peter Camejo,
the Greens' candidate for governor in
2002.

...

"As disappointed as we are to see
teachers being laid off and crucial health
and social services being cut due to Davis,
Greens have no interest in electing a
Republican," said Santa Monica Mayor pro
tem Kevin McKeown. "Our focus remains
on putting good Green Party candidates
on the ballot, so voters can elect people
who actually keep their campaign
promises."

[Jack Rabbit]

22. The Green stand on the recall is perfectly reasonable

Camejo and the Green leadership know that individual Greens will do as they please, so they take no stand on the recall itself. It is a reasonable position, but it isn't the one I would take personally.

My personal stand is that the recall is irresponsible. An official should be recalled for corruption or clear incompetence, not because he takes a position on this or that issue that somebody doesn't like and certainly not because he belongs to the wrong political party. This recall is being driven by partisan Republicans for partisan purposes. What is worse, as GrandmaBear points out in post no. 16 (above), is that Mr. Issa is attempting to buy the process out of his own pocket. Issa is like the spoiled child who cuts to the front of the line because he thinks he's too good to have to wait his turn like everybody else. He has every right to run for governor, but he should wait until 2006 like everybody else.

Nevertheless, if it is going to happen, it is prudent to have a candidate ready. If the Democrats aren't going to have one, it is all the more important that the Greens do. It is important that the Republicans -- especially Issa -- not be rewarded for this little temper tantrum they're having over losing the last election. Unfortunately, disrespect of the electoral process is becoming a trademark of the GOP.

As things are shaping up, I will vote to retain Davis and vote for Peter Camejo to replace him should Davis not be retained.

[MSchreader]

25. He could do it

Since other people here have already answered the technical questions of the ballot, I'll respond in the area I know most.

Peter could effectively govern in California. He is certainly familiar with the way politics works (having not only run for governor in Calif. before, but also for president of the United States and numerous other offices), and he can work with the Democrats in the state legislature.

If Davis gets recalled, then Camejo is the obvious choice for California Democrats.

Martin

[ronnykmarshall]

31. Depends

If Riordon is on the ballot, more moderate Democrats would vote for him over Camejo.

So far Riordon has not said he would run.

It's funny that the top two vote getters in the latest poll (Feinstien and Riordon) are not running.

[MSchreader]

32. But with all the other Republicans on the ballot

Can the moderate Dems carry him across the finish line?

Martin